Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RB's in 2015, Part 1

You know, normally he just, yeah, the fumbling issue. Normally he pushes it off, says, you know, whatever. This time he says, you know, when it comes back to bite you in that way, it's something you got to work on and change. And, yeah, how long is it taking you, Adrian Peterson, to realize this? Sounds like Shaq with free throws. Yeah, I don't know that he's going to be able to change that at this point in his career, but he has something still to prove, you know, I don't.

I don't see how he's not in my top two running backs next year. That was going to be my question for both of you. Would you rather have Adrian Peterson or Devante Freeman? Adrian Peterson. Oh, man. Would you rather have Adrian Peterson, Devon, Bel? That's the question to me is Levion. I would probably, if I'm at the top of a draft, I'm probably going to take Adrian Peterson. And the reason is because he's done it for a career. He...

You know, he's not as injury prone as Levy on Bell, which I think deserves that label to some degree at this point. Yep. And Devante Freeman is great, but, you know, he's done it one year. So I'm going to take Adrian Peterson in the history. And Adrian Peterson's, his split between a great defense and a bottom defense, about 0.1 points. So it didn't matter who he's playing. It does not matter.

for Adrian Peterson. And I love that. He's evaluating his fumble issue. How many years has he played? Yeah, it's strange. It's just one of those things where you're like, okay, I'm this good. I don't care. And that's unfortunate because it costs them. And it costs him in more than just the playoff game. It costs them in other games. Huge fumble. You know, it's the reckless abandon. I'm going to run this way. I'm going to do this thing. Well, can't you do it better? Well, it wasn't just the first playoff game. If you go back to the NFC title game, everyone remembers the Brett Fav.

interception that sealed the game. What you're forgetting is Peterson fumbling on the goal line, having another fumble inside of that game. I mean, there was a disaster of Butterfingers. So it's just hilarious that now was the time for him to evaluate that. It's good stuff. Right, right. It's better than him saying, well, if we would have made a field goal, we would have won. Yeah, exactly. Let's talk about the third guy on the list this year.

Hey, he's Doug Martin. He's back. He's Doug Martin, and Dirk Cutter is the head coach now in Tampa Bay. He wants Doug Martin back. There's a long way from here to there where he's back on that roster. But if he's there, you have a consistency in play calling from Dirk Cutter. So that's a good thing for repeating a performance. You also have...

stability at the quarterback position. You know who's playing quarterback? A guy who had a very, very good rookie year in James Winston. You got good wide receivers that can keep defenses honest, not let them stack against Doug Martin. The question will be how much do they use him? He had 288 carries this year, despite, I don't remember the exact number, but his snap percentage was so low compared to the carry numbers that make you think he's on the field all the time. Yeah, and what will be interesting is his counterpart,

He won't be featured in this show, but he's in this list. Charles Sims. Charles Sims. That's amazing. You have to imagine the time split will still be in Doug Martin's favor, but Charles Sims had a great year as well. Breaking down Doug Martin versus top defenses versus bottom defenses, it didn't matter for Doug Martin. It's just a couple point difference. And as far as consistency, he was the third best, which is,

Great, because he was the third best running back in fantasy with 12 top 25 performances, three top five, and no, no craps. No, his pants are clean. So basically what we see here from the first three is these are not anomalous finishers in running back. They're not guys that ended up at the top because they had three or four humongous games. They were all top three consistency guys, so they all need to be in the discussion as one of the top.

picks at running back next year. In terms of the top, how did he perform against top versus bottom defenses? He actually was better.

Fantasy-wise against top defenses? I don't know if that is because of- Oh, yes, yes. Well, yeah, I was going to say it's one of those game flow things. When you're facing better teams, a lot of times when you've got a tool like Doug Martin, you're going to try to run the ball more and slow down the clock, do those type of things. I think Dirk Cutter coming means that Doug Martin will be back. And he wants to use, Dirk Cutter wants Doug Martin when you promote him. He's going to have to pay him. Yeah.

When you promote him to head coach for his first year and then say, okay, well, we're not going to keep the guy that you really want. I think he will be back. And you have to remember, Doug Martin is, he was a first round NFL draft pick. He is a very talented running back. The issue with Doug Martin has been health. And that's what you see as the big difference this year is that he was able to play in all 16 games. I play healthy throughout them. That's my.

fear with him a little bit is will the smaller body who has an injury history with a big workload on a contract year now he gets paid is he going to be as you know consistent on the field with sims behind him he's a little bit scarier to me than the other guys but he is super talented when he's healthy so he's done this to us before with his rookie year yeah i i love the level of consistency he comes has coming into next year if he is indeed on the

on the bucks, which you should be. So number four. Number four is when you start to get into some different numbers. And I don't think we need to debate him very long. But DiAngelo Williams was a number four running back this year. He had over 900 yards rushing. He caught 40 passes. His consistency number was way down. It was eighth despite finishing fourth in the league. And that was because he had a number of games where he wasn't playing. Yeah, he really wasn't playing. Three games with Levi-on-Bell.

Two carries for 32 yards. So this is not so much. I don't think there's much to discuss with him long-term context because DeAngelo Williams is a great, the number one handcuff, maybe, is what you say, because he's the handcuff of a great player on a great team. The question is, next year, Levy on Bell, getting hurt every single year, will they lower that workload where Bell is basically out there for every single snap, getting every single running back touch?

I do not believe so. Nor I. You don't think that DeAngelo Williams will be worked in. No, what we saw this year was already... And Tomlin has said it over and over again that he will not do that. Yeah, I mean, they had the opportunity to do that this year. It wasn't like this was the first time either. We saw what they're going to do, and I believe they're going to do that next year. They did it with the backup, whoever comes in, you know, with DeAngelo Williams. So...

That to me is not a worry. If Levi-on-Bel back, he's going to be a guy older. He's a year older next year. And that matters. They have seen now an entire year of DeAngelo Williams getting it done, not just a two games at the beginning. Or you have, if you know that your backup can get it done, why would you not get him more snaps? Because that's not how they play. Tomlin wants the best guy on the field. And if Levy on Bell is healthy, DeAngelo-Williams might be good, but he's not Levy on Bell.

Yeah, and he'll be 33 next year. It's a fair point. The question to me... I just don't buy into it at all. The question to me is, do they go out and get another running back this year because of the age of DeAngelo Williams? Or because of the success of DeAngelo Williams, do they kind of hold path there and say, we've got a great backup? In which case, I agree, is the number one handcuff next year. And I think you're going to be able to get him cheaper than you should just because of his age. I think he's going to be expensive. If they come into the year that...

He's the number two guy. He's going to be a, I don't know, like probably an eighth round pick. People start snatching him up early just because that's, like you remember Nile Davis when he was the guy for a Jamal Charles owner? I mean, people started pushing him up way early. Yeah, but the difference was Nile Davis wasn't 33. It's just one of those funny things because first year D.U.L. leaves. There's no one on earth that thinks D.O.L. is going to outperform Jonathan Stewart in the leadback role. And here he is, you know.

at the top of our list yet again. It's just a comical thing, but he's a handcuff. We all agree. And he is under contract for next year. I checked on that too. Yeah, he's under contract for one more year. Todd Gurley, number five, the rookie, 13 games, 229, 11.06, and 10 touchdowns. Caught a few passes, but not a ton. He was seventh in consistency. That's still good. Very good. He's considering, you know, he had...

He didn't have the opportunity in the early part of the season to do it. He was somebody who definitely preyed upon bad defenses. His numbers were much higher against defenses that they could run on, and that makes perfect sense because the offense couldn't pass the ball. So it was one of those things where they could get stacked against the run in games where they knew that they weren't going to be able to pass. Yeah, I agree. Moving forward to the next year, I mean, you have to like Gurley.

immensely talented when you watch him. Number one guy consideration. But when you start breaking things down, you like running backs, you like talented good running backs who are on good teams. And the Rams are an okay team. Until they can address their quarterback position, I mean, Case Keenum, as of now, Case Keenum is the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles.

Rams moving into next year, and that's not going to put a lot of confidence in me to spend, say, a first-round pick on Todd Gurley. Really? Yeah. Depending on where you are, but there's these other guys. Let's say, I mean, you got Freeman, Peter, we're just speaking of running back, but Freeman, Peterson, Martin, Levion Bell, Todd Gurley. Where is he? Who is he? Where are you?

Ordering those guys. Any sort of keeper league, Gurley is. I'm not talking about keeper. Yeah, I think Gurley is in my consideration for number two. Personally, from that argument, in a redraft league, I'd put him fourth on that list. But which is a, he's a first round pick for me. I thought that was pretty bold.

To say Gurley's not a first round. I can get behind that from the standpoint of, you know, when we looked coming into this past year, we did the research of, okay, top running backs. How many of them are on, it was like eight out of the top ten were on winning teams. And so I do think that Todd Gurley is going to have a great year, but you're going to have those games where, you know, he can get.

He could get game flowed out. I mean, you see a pretty big discrepancy between his top 16 and bottom 16 scoring. I mean, 12.12.6 points per game versus 18.6. I mean, it's hard because the three of the top six guys on this list are on crappy teams. I mean, Devante Freeman's on a bad team. Doug Martin's on a bad team. Lamar Miller's on a bad team. None of them have the potential to be what Gurley would be. When you buy into a guy...

I'm buying into the talent and that opportunity, and I can't imagine St. Louis's passing game being worse. Maybe that's my naivity. No, it can't be worse, sure. The difference of a 20-yard, averaging 20 yards and half a touchdown more against bottom defenses has concern for me. That's all I'm saying. People are going to draft him in the first round. Just for me, if I'm staring down certain running back options,

And in the first round, I don't know if I'm going to go with Gurley. Yeah, that's fair. Gurley or Devante Freeman for you guys? Because it's easily Gurley for me. I would take Freeman. Freeman for you. What about you? It would be Freeman in a redraft. Okay. All right. Number six was Lamar Miller. Oh, Lamar Miller. That's my boy. Oh, Lamar Miller. The man who finished six. Consistency. 17th. He was the sixth. This is why some players.

They help you if you play them at the right time and they hurt you if they don't. He was consistently inconsistent. I mean, to finish 17th inconsistency as the number six running back is just amazing. There's no player with more huge question marks above his head than Lamar Miller. I mean, he's a guy who's probably not coming back to Miami, first of all. So landing in a new spot, we know that's hard to do anyways for a running back.

Could he land in a good place like Dallas? Sure. He could. Is he good enough to take a workload in a new place and give you number six numbers again with maybe better than 17th consistency? Probably not. I don't know. I think he is. I think if he were to go to one of two spots, he would be great. And anywhere else, even though I love him, it's just not, you know, whenever a guy changes teams, I am much more skeptical than hopeful.