Christmas Eve Extravaganza! + Week 16 Matchups, Fantasy Grinches - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/24

Kansas City has played in six straight one-score games. They've won. They've won them all. Interesting. Which means they haven't covered the spread very often. Imagine, you know, 10 and a half points. That's pretty big here for Atlanta. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey are your locks on that side of the ball. Yep. Lev Bell is going to see a lot of work.

So I have confidence in Lev Bell as an RB2 this week. Yeah, I have a little bit of confidence in the running back too. I mean, like lower end running back too. How much projecting, Andy, what kind of opportunities are you thinking for for Lev Bell? He saw 16 last week. 15 to 20. Okay. Same general, you know, Clyde went down in the game and the tendency running up for Kansas City is to play Lev Bell early in the game anyway.

So he was getting a lot of work to start each and every game. And then with Clyde's injury, he just finished with that. So I think 15 to 20 is right, which is great for a team like Kansas City. Yeah. I mean, if you can guarantee that he gets 15 plus touches for the Chiefs, then he is a good flex-worthy or an RB2 type of player. I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that Kansas City has a

far lopsided pass-to-run ratio in this game without Clyde Edwards Aller. The fact that, you know, the Falcons have been very good against running backs this year. Stout on the ground and a sieve in their secondary means why run the ball when we could just dink and dunk and throw deep and across the middle and everywhere we want against the Falcons. So I'm less confident that he's guaranteed for a massive workload, but if he gets it,

I mean, that opportunity is king in fantasy. I was curious what the pass attempts per game for Patrick Mahomes has been this year versus last year. And he's averaging four more pass attempts per game this year. 38 a game versus 34 last year. Not enough. Even more reliant on the past game. What's funny is that you really can't play McCle Hardman or Sammy Watkins or to Marcus Robinson.

despite that fact. Like there isn't an option at the two. It's really crazy. I mean, there's Kelsey and Hill soak up everything. And honestly, for fantasy purposes, it's delightful. Yeah, it's wonderful. They have no problem doing what you think that they should do on every play. Exactly. Right. And that's why I think maybe they'll just throw it more in this game because it's like, yeah, but why would we waste time running it when we could just, this is going to work. On this play, we could throw to Tyreek or DeMarcus Robinson. What should we do?

Yeah, Tyreek every time. It's like they just do what works every time. All right. Here's the interesting storyline at Running Back for the Falcons. They've made, they've come out, made a public pronouncement. Rahim Morris saying Todd Gurley's roles changed. Edel Smith is our guy. Edel Smith is, he's in consideration this week, as painful as that is to say. The last four weeks.

He's been okay, 4.5 per carry, not a lot of opportunities, but this could be the week where the opportunities change, and Kansas City is allowing the most running back receiving yards in football. So I hate Edo Smith. I've always thought he's not very talented, not as good as Brian Hill, who's not that great. And I'm terrified of him because I'm playing in a championship against Kyle, our editor, where he just lost Savon Ahmed.

And this isn't a dynasty league. He was able to scoop up Eto Smith. And I don't want my comeuppance from Edo Smith. You don't want to say that you lost Edo Smith. No, that would terrify me. And he's still a risky play because you just don't know if the opportunities are going to shoot up or not. Well, to me, it's not even just the opportunities. It's the, what do they do at the goal line? That's what Todd Gurley's value was, was scoring touchdowns. And if Edo Smith is.

getting, you know, 20 opportunities between the 20s, then you have a Devon Singletary situation with a player who is not as good as Devon Singletary. You're not wrong. He has one five zone attempt on the whole year. Right. So if they just decide Brian Hill's going to be the guy who gets the carries inside the five, you will be. Brian Hill has two five zone attempts on the year. Gurley has a lot of touchdowns. I don't know who it's going to be, but just.

When you're making that decision of Edo Smith, you need to include that variable of you can't guarantee he is actually the goal line back. It's tough because if you're making that decision on Edo Smith, you have lost Rahim Moster, you have lost James Robbins, and you have lost somebody. And you've lost a little bit of your heart. I mean, like, Edo Smith is a smaller back. He is a sub 200-pound guy. Meanwhile, Brian Hill is a 220. Russell Gage, playing catch up here.

Do you think Russell Gage is a good option? 8, 7, 10 targets the last three weeks. Yeah, he's been coming through a little bit more. Gager. Ooh. I'm a gauge on that one. Yeah, I think I go Gage. I was hesitant. What's that? What if Kiki is out? If Kiki is out, I will probably still play Gage. Okay. By a hair. I mean, 91% of the snaps last week. That's his highest by far of the season. It's funny because I think that's what Hansen's was last week, too. Mbap.

And they're both not the number one option, even if QT is out. Where are you going on that one, Jay? I would go, I think because it's so close, I would really enjoy mbopping in the championship. I see. I see. So I'm going to go mbop. Yeah, Russell Gaged wide receiver 13, wide receiver 16 in the last two weeks. It will be interesting to see what happens in this game. Hayden Hurst actually scored last week. Is he an option? No. Okay.

I would like us to definitively say no on as many tight ends as possible. Okay. No. Because I'm out on hers. I think it's more helpful because there's always a narrative street with a tight end on how they could fall into the insol. So the more we say no, the easier it will be for listeners. Well, and in your championship week, you don't want to rely on a guy like Hearst. No. It ends up. He'll put you in one. Oh, in a hearse. Okay. Hurst. He'll put you in a Hearst. I mean, it works. Let's move on.

Cleveland Browns at 10 and 4 taking on the 1 in 13 New York Jets. Jets on a winning streak. Browns are 9.5 point favorites. It's a 47.5 point over under. Baker has been on fire over the last month. Quarterback 12, 3, 2, 12. No reason that should stop this week. He is a great option. And he's been finding away. And the team has been trusting him to make that big throw. And he's been, he's just been great.

confidence goes a long way, doesn't it? It certainly does. As does the weather that allows you to throw the ball. I mean, I know we've brought it up a lot, but it's a big time piece of the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield's season. Yeah, so it's one of those things where he might have... He had a lot of good weather last year and didn't look as good as he looked over the last four weeks. I agree. Obviously, he had a very down year, but he's still young in his career. He might just be better than we thought to start the...

first half of this season. Well, the most troubling part is what you actually wanted to see from the beginning that got disrupted by weather, which is no OBJ. Baker without Odell Beckham has been good, good Baker. Yes, his rookie year. Yeah. He was great. He gets Odell Beckham. Not so great. It's crazy. He's not good with him. Baker, Beckham goes out.

Oh, Baker's back. And where does confidence come from? Confidence comes from knowing that you have control over the offense and that you can throw the ball where you need to throw it. Not, oh, crap, is he getting enough touches? Yeah. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Beckham moving forward. So all of that said, all of the narratives on him, Baker is a good start this week. I mean, he was one of our streams of the week. He was.

Absolutely in consideration for a start of the week. There are certainly quarterback options where I would choose to pick up and play Baker over this week against the Jets. The Jets are the number one rushing defense and fantasy points given up over the last six weeks in football. There's a reason for that. You're saying because the Jets are not allowing points to the running back? Correct. Yeah, because 31st to the quarterback, 30th to wide receivers.

And 32nd against the tight end. Yeah, it's just a funny stat when you look at those numbers and then you say, oh, maybe, you know, Nick Chub, you start him. Dream Hunt, you start him. How you like my foot to your face. Yeah. Frank Gore should have 20 carries. Would you play him over Edosmith? I probably would. I don't think I would. Championship week. I don't think I would. I don't want.

you know, a guaranteed eight or fewer points, and that's what I feel like you get. He had 15 last week. I realize that, but you even said he falls into the end zone, you know, once or twice a year. That's correct. He just did it. So I don't think it happens again. And the Browns have been pretty stout against the run. I don't want to rely on Frank Gore. A good example would be like San Francisco, 21 carries in that game, eight fantasy points. Exactly.

Well pronounced. Jarvis Landry, great start. Richard Higgins. You heard the taking it to 100 pick for Jason. Richard Higgins, Russell Gage. Who do you want? A lot of silence there. That was a tough one. I'm going to go Richard Higgins. I'm going to go Gage. I will lean Higgins. Austin Hooper. He's, I mean, there is no team as bad at tight end.

as the Jets. And I think Austin Hooper is a very good play. I know you want us to say no to some of these middling tight ends. I say yes. He scares me. I say yes to Hooper as well. All right. Chris Herndon? No. Oh, let's move on to starts. Starts of the week.

All right, a little break here between the matchups. Get into our starts for this week, and I'll kick it off with a quarterback we've already talked about, a matchup we've already talked about. I am going with my lock of the week. Tom Brady against the Detroit Lions, the single best matchup for quarterbacks in the NFL over the last eight weeks. Huge over under 53.5 points. Stafford has the ability to keep up in this game.

And look, Brady's hard to watch, Jason. Watching you watch Brady. Even harder. You watching Brady is a difficult thing. And last week, two players, two wide receivers dragged down on the one yard line. He would have been the number one overall quarterback if they fall into the end zone after putting up 390 passing yards. So I love Brady this week. I'm going to go.

The play, man, I absolutely love this call. If you hadn't have done it, I would have, and I'm sure Mike would as well. Tom Brady's a smash play. Deshawn Watson is my start of the week. This is a championship week. Start your superstar players. You know, the matchup isn't the best. The Bengals are not great, but you end up with low-scoring games, slower pace of play, low over-under. But it doesn't matter because at the end of the day,

I'm trusting Deshaun Watson. I trust him to be really, really good. He had back-to-back number one quarterback performances and then had to play Indianapolis, Chicago, Indianapolis again, tough defenses where he was still top 10, I believe last week against Indianapolis. They can't run the ball, but they've started using David Johnson in the passing game. I think the entire offense...

runs through Deshawn Watson. I will trust him in my championship week. And I'm going with the Rook. I'm taking Jalen Hertz against the Dallas Cowboys. It's all about the rushing 18 for 106, 11 for 63. And the Dallas Cowboys on the season, it's kind of a, you know, it's a middle of the road matchup for quarterbacks. But then you look at what type of quarterback play has gotten it done against the Dallas Cowboys.

Russell, the quarterback two, Kyler, the quarterback five, and Lamar, the quarterback seven. They clearly have a problem with mobile quarterbacks. Also mortal. Mortal. Mortal combat. Moral quarterbacks. And that's who Jalen Hertz is. And we've seen enough from the passing game, the arm for Jalen Hertz. He's willing to go downfield. I think, and I also think that, I mean, we're not there, but I think Rager is kind of a sneaky start this week.

All right, at running back, I got this in early in the week before we knew whether it was going to be Savon Ahmed or Miles Gaskin. So it is Miles Gaskin, the starting running back for Miami, assuming it is Miles Gaskin, which we can fairly assume. Yes. Las Vegas bleeding out to the running back. You know, this is just a smash play.