AFC North Breakdown + Julio Signed, It’s Complicated - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/28

The Baltimore Ravens, eight and nine, they failed to hit their projected win total as well, six and six in one score games. But such a weird year. It was so unfair. Such a weird year for the Baltimore Ravens, who sixth in total passing yards, seventh in points per game, third in rushing attempts, third in rushing yards, ninth in rushing touchdowns. Like, everything was there. Except the team. Well, yeah, the team wasn't there, but I'm saying those are fantastic numbers across the board. But if you played Mark Andrews, you were pretty happy about that, who had an absolute dominant tight-end finish and really carried some teams. You know, Devonta Freeman here or there. But like if you went on Lamar, in on Lamar, he had some boom games still, but then he had games where you're like,

Well, where's, where's Lamar Jackson? Why is he not carrying my team right now? It was just, it was so strange to see this team flip where the defense completely fell apart. As you know, 30, we were targeting the Baltimore Ravens. We were targeting their secondary. You wanted your pass catchers going against the 32nd ranked Baltimore Ravens passing defense. So anyways, that's last year. So moving forward, how are you feeling about Lamar Jackson as the potential QB1? I don't think he's going to be the potential QB1. I like Lamar Jackson. I will draft him quite a bit. And he obviously has the highest rushing upside of all quarterbacks. There's not really, to me, a second place that can if every quarterback plays 17 games.

There's no one else who's going to compete with him on rushing yards and the ground game for Lamar Jackson. He's too good. He played 12 games last year. Six of them, he was a quarterback one. So the problem was when he didn't have a great game, he was pretty disappointing. So as far as the overall quarterback one, we've obviously seen it. It's in the range of outcomes for Lamar Jackson. Duh. I don't think it happens because what... needs to happen for that to come together is what happened where he, you know, it's rushing for a thousand yards and throwing for like 35 plus touchdowns. You know, he kind of surprised the world when that happened. I don't see that happening again, but obviously can it happen? Sure. You lose Hollywood Brown, which doesn't help because he was the number one target for a large chunk of last year. I mean, the beginning of the year, Hollywood was amazing.

I think you kind of have to throw last year out because we learned some lessons that I think we need to take from last year. But, you know, per football outsiders, the Ravens had the most adjusted games lost, 192 due to injuries of any team over the last 20 years. So, I mean, they were decimated. If you don't remember, it was a comedy of errors losing players. They lost their whole team. So. What did we learn? We learned that this team would rather have a veteran who can pass protect at running back over an athlete who is able to actually get to the outside or have successful running place. Right. Because they lost their two star running backs. But going forward this year, I think Mark Andrews is still my tight in one. Okay.

And I prefer him a lot over Travis Kelsey when you factor in 80P. You can get Mark Andrews sometimes at the end of the second, whereas you're still spending a first rounder on Kelsey, and the players there are obviously much more valuable than the players around Mark Andrews. And I like taking a shot on Lamar Jackson when he falls, which he does from time to time. But that's a know-your-league situation. I don't think I'm going to take him at the top of the fifth. To just, you know, highlight again the weirdness. Lamar Jackson had nine games of 30 or more pass attempts this past season. Through his first three years in the league, he had seven total. Like the Ravens were just getting scored on. So I think the passing attempts, you know, they will be up compared to the first three years. But I'm not projecting them to be anywhere near where they were this past year. So Mark Andrews is still fantastic, but I'm not.

I don't have him as high as you guys do. Let's just touch on Rashad Bateman then before we move it in the running backs. A 15.7% target share last year, you know, a first round pick. That's a decent target share. He's a very talented wide receiver. Yeah, a very talented. He profiles to me more as a number one wide receiver than Hollywood Brown does. Brown is undersized, but extremely fast. Bateman seems to be more well-rounded. But I... It's very difficult for me to be all in on Rashad Bateman. In the pre-draft process, I've kind of found that too, like when everyone was really excited for Hollywood Brown, and I'm putting my numbers in. I just can't get him there unless you have a huge outlier touchdown thing happened, which was that's what Hollywood Brown was doing at the beginning of the season.

Where are you on Rashad Bateman, currently going as the wide receiver 34? I am, I think he will finish better than the wide receiver 34. I mean, if that's where he's being drafted in your leagues, I'll draft him every single time there. He's currently my wide receiver 20. That's a decent breakout. Yeah, there is not a lot of other options. I mean, you have Deva Duvernay and Prochet and there are. People. But as far as talent, this is like a two. Yes, they have people on the team. This is a two-man show. You know, it's Mark Andrews and Rashad Bateman. And that's what I like when I'm trying to target fantasy points is like I want a consolidation of those targets. I don't think Bateman will be the super sensational breakout down the field, superstar for fantasy that some people.

are hoping and projecting. That's more of where I was getting. But I think he'll be a highly targeted, good possession receiver that is valuable on a week-to-week basis with maybe even more consistency than people expect. The running back position is extremely difficult. You have J.K. Dobbins, who was absolutely electric as a rookie. In fact, the most rushing touchdowns ever for a rookie running back with fewer than 140 carries. It felt like... Basically every time he got the ball. And it took a while for the Ravens to move away from Mark Ingram. J.K. Dobbins took that job over the second half of the season. Then Gus Edwards, who also he feels like every time he touches the ball, he's going at least five yards. He's just an absolute tank. He also tore his ACL along with J.K. Dobbins in the preseason in training camp part of the year. They're both on the Pupp list. J.K. Dobbins was.

very vocal and adamant that he's going to be ready to go. He said he's probably not going to end up on the pup, so, you know, check one box for Ian Rappaport's source. But running back 22 for J.K. Dobbins, for a guy that you have, we just don't know, is he electric enough that you're willing to take on the risk? I haven't then, no. Okay. I, uh, you know, on these things, I try to default to people. with actual medical degrees and knowledge of the science and stuff like that. Right. His injury is different than just... Would you like to ask the cardboard bear? Yes. His injury was pretty significant, multi-ligament plus the meniscus, and will he be back week one? Maybe. He says he will? Will he be...

utilized in a heavy workload fashion right back from this injury to be a really good fantasy football pick. Almost certainly no. Like I can't imagine a world where you come in week one, he is getting 25 total touches, 25 opportunities a game. I just can't see that happening. And then if he did do that, what is his efficiency? off of this injury because usually it takes two years back from this type of an injury before you're back to pre-injury production. So I have been passing on Dobbins. Early in the off season, loved Dobbins. I think in our ultimate draft kit, he was kind of listed as a breakout super, super early. The more information that came out because originally it was thought to be a clean ACL. And then the timeline started saying, man, he should be back.

Oh, he's not back because it wasn't a clean ACL. And it's like, then you found more and more to how severe this injury was. And it's just someone I'm betting against. I'm not going to buy the injury dip here. Gus Edwards, his running mate was like, well, okay, he's got a clean ACL. Good. Maybe I'll draft him. In fact, I drafted quite a bit of him in baseball because he's, I mean, so late. He is left for dead because he's injured and he's the backup. So that makes sense. But if J.K. Dobbins is completely not ready to go, then Gus Edwards has a great opportunity, except now we're at a training camp on a timeline where he should be good to go. Right. And he's not. Yeah. So now I'm like, well, those are more to his injury? Like how much of their recovery is related to the Baltimore training field? Yeah, it's got to be probably 85% of it. Groundkeepers in Baltimore.

I hope this problem has rectified itself. Yeah, get some green grass there. Who wins the division? Who wins the division? Is this current that the Ravens are the favorite? Yeah, they move from third to the favorite. That is my pick. Wow. You're not going to go a repeat of the Bengals? Super Bowl losers don't always have a kind year back off of the Super Bowl loss. Yep. I'll take the Ravens. All right, it's underdog fantasy time. Basketball Breakdown, presented by Underdog Fantasy. All right. Whoa, it's back. Here's what we're doing. Today, we're going to talk to you in making your underdog lineups about stacks. Everyone's favorite thing to talk about. But Jason. Oh, my goodness. The Vopo, the voice of public opinion, you waited until now? Well, hey there, Mike.

Hey, Evopa. How are you doing? I'm doing pretty good. I got a vacation. I've been lobetrotting. You sound much more like Mickey Mouse this time. I got a lot of pepper bus step. Anyways, we're talking about stacks again. You've been talking about stacks already. Yeah, my friend Jason loves talking about him. The reason we're talking about stacks on stacks. Stacks on stacks. The reason we're talking about it again is twofold. One, it's because it is important. If you're playing best ball mania three and you are not stacking. Yeah, the Best Ball Mania 3. If you're not stacking your quarterback with a pass catcher, you're, you know, you're not building optimal lineups. And we want the Foot Clan to win Best Ball Mania 3. Like that's our, I want someone here to be like, yeah, I became a millionaire. Thank you. Well, you're welcome. And I do expect a tip. I'm giving you tips right now. What? 50, 50. No, Mike. I think we can give the winner.

5545. 55% we'll take the 45. We're honorable men. So stacks are important, but today we're not just talking about, oh, stack, I'm going to bring up and clarify that not all stacks are the same and just give you a cheat sheet. I want to give you guys a couple targets, easy takeaways of maybe. who to target as stacks that can actually come together because sometimes you're at certain parts of the draft. It's hard to stack a player with a different player based on ADPs. But here's the first and foremost point is that you want a stack that elevates your quarterback. When you grab the greatest, you know, you're spending a first rounder on Stefan Diggs, who I love and Josh Allen, who's going to be the quarterback one in the third round, those guys are expected to be great.

their draft cost is already factoring in that their elevated greatness. They're not making each other necessarily better. In fact, that had a negative correlation last year. That stack had a negative correlation to advance rates in Best Ball Mania 3. Same with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey. I mean, they were great last year. What more do you want, but what they did? And it was a negative correlation because you're spending so much on that. And those players aren't elevating the quarterback over expectation. Whereas let's take a look at, I don't know, Carson Wins, your favorite quarterback, Mike. You love Carson Wins. Only 33% of Carson Wins's lineups were stacked with either Jonathan Taylor or Pity City. But when they were stacked, to give you a frame of reference, let's say you stacked Patrick Mahomes with Travis Kelsey. You advanced 10% of the time. Let's say you stacked Carson Wins.

with Michael Pittman, you advanced 21% of the time. Okay. Let's say you stacked with Jonathan Taylor. I mean, obviously Jonathan Taylor was just a great pick, but that's 43% of the time. When you stack with a guy that is kind of a lower expectation with a quarterback that isn't everybody's favorite quarterback, when the player comes through, if you can find that more affordable, wide receiver, tight end. who's going to have some big games and come through. Well, that's going to take this quarterback that you stacked them with and have a dominant performance that is different than the other players you're playing against. So here are, this is just the cheat coat. We're just going to give you some late round stacks that we think you should target. Darnel Mooney or Colcomit with Justin Fields. I love this deck. It's one of my most common. George Kittle is.

Pretty much my favorite tight end when he falls. He's been falling to the fifth. I've seen him in the sixth round, the back of the fifth. If you can grab Kittle and then you come around and pair him with Trey Lance, that is huge upside that doesn't cost you much. I do have one word of warn, or not one word, a couple words of warning. Okay. I'm not done with Trey Lance's ADP. You're not down with Trey Lances? I'm not done with it. Oh, oh no. Mike, it's not. You're going to raise him up? Yeah, Josh Grobin style. Come on, man. So if you want late, Trey Lance, get in now. You better do it this weekend. All right. I like Mac Jones. I think Mac Jones is a... I don't... Not everybody agrees with me here. But I think Mac Jones is an awesome quarterback, and he's going to be good for fantasy better than he was last year, obviously, in his second year. Not like Tom Brady, but he's going to be relevant. And you can stack him with Hunter Henry, which is one of my favorites because you...

You know he's the red zone target. Same with Devante Parker, who today. Yeah, and talked up. Being talked up as their red zone work, Devante Parker was dominating. Let's say you believe Trevor Lawrence is going to have a good breakout candidate. Get Christian Kirk, who's super undervalued. Two others here. This one's for Kyle. Kyle wants us to say Chris Olavi and James Winston because he loves Chris O'Lavie. All right. We said it. Moving on. Also, Michael Thomas. But my favorite is Cadarius Tony with Daniel Jones. Those guys are not costing you a ton and you talk about electric upside and a new offense. It's there. So those are the type of guys. When you're at the back of your draft, pay attention to who you're drafting. Like if you're at a wide receiver and you're choosing between two or three wide receivers and you've got one quarterback, can you stack the one you're picking or has that quarterback already been drafted?

Or is like, oh, yeah, well, if I get Ammon Ra here instead of that guy or Darnel Mooney, well, then I can grab Jerk Goff or I can grab Justin Fields. Pay attention and win millions of dollars. All right. That was Best Ball Breakdown presented by Underdog Fantasy. Start playing on Underdog today, right now. They'll match your first deposit up to $100 if you use the code ballers. That's going to do it for today's episode of the podcast. Do not forget ultimate draft kit.com. I would never forget that. I know you would. Watch. Ultimate draft kit.com. Very nice. The only draft tool you need over this offseason updates the entire offseason. Also, pro tip. You can go to my udk.com once you have the ultimate draft kit, because that's the only way I get to it. Just go to myudk.com once you have it. Quick, easy access to just pull it up. We will have another show for you on Saturday. We may even see you on Saturday. And then next.

We, next week, five shows. It's August. It's go time. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.