AFC North Breakdown + Julio Signed, It’s Complicated - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/28

A few spike weeks, including scoring in three straight games as they finished out the season before. Of course, the Bengals took week 18 off. Is Tyler Boyd on your radar at all? No, not at all. You know, he's one of those guys that he got exciting down the stretch because I think he had two weeks in a row with a 50-yard touchdown where it was like the entire defense forgot about Tyler Boyd. and he takes it to the house. That can happen. But in a redraft league, you're not going to be playing him every single week. And I think his upside is limited as the wide receiver three. Even if he finishes the year as like, he finishes as the wide receiver 32. So it's like, oh, that's a decent finish. If you played him every single week along the way, I'll bet you lose most of your matchup. So he's not someone I'm going after. All right. We're going to take a quick break and then talk about the Steelers. The Steelers is nine, seven, and one.

I mean, they, they, Mike Tomlin and crew, they pulled off another winning season. One score games, they were eight and two. This is another one of those teams, though, nine and seven and one, yet a negative point differential. That's not where you want us to be hitting that button. That is, yes, you would rather it be a positive 55. This is one, though, I, Mike Tomlin's a great coach, so I don't read. too much into this one. Like, I expect Mike Tomlin to be eight and two in one score games and figure out a way to win. But that was last year's team. That was Ben Rothlisberger, who is now retired. So you have a very different looking team. They drafted Kenny Pickett, the quarterback, in the first round from the 20th spot. And then they added George Pickens in the second round for the quarterback. Let's just start there. You have Mitchell Trubisky.

Mitch Trubisky, money Trubisky? Didn't you say? Yeah, I heard of money. Yeah, Tomlin was talking about him called him money. I don't know. But right now. We need the research team on this. Right now, Mitchell Trubisky appears to have the clear lead as the starter. This is a team you just talked about it. Like they're always a winning team. They've always had Tomlin. And I'm very interested in the Steelers this year. Just from like a curiosity standpoint, the Big Bin versus Mike Tomlin, you know, what was Big Ben making them always win these games, even though he looked like he sucked the last few years? Was Tomlin, who I believe is an awesome coach? Is he the one holding the ship together? But now we get to, we get to see kind of like this new version. You remember two years ago when you couldn't run against the Steelers? Like you just couldn't? Yes.

And then last year they were 32nd against the run and still ended up, you know, making the playoffs. So I'm just really wanting to see what happens here. And this could go all over the place. I do have Mitchell Trebisky as the starter. I have him currently with 16 games and one game for Kenny Pickett. That seems to be like the cool thing. You know, you put Trey Lance in for a game. You put Patrick Mahomes for a game and the next year he'll take over. It will be very interesting as. The Steelers historically a very winning team. If they can get that defense back together, they can win games. They could probably make the playoffs with Mitchell Trevisky. And Kenny Pickett being drafted 20th, I think that gives them, I feel like they have the leverage to sit him the entire year and not really be questioned about it unless the season completely flips upside down on them, which, again, I don't expect that to happen. At the running back position, Najee Harris.

An absolute monster when it came to workload. Not really efficient so much on the ground. But he was, you know, one of those guys that benefited from, you know, the pop cap of an arm or pop gun of an arm that Big Ben had these days. And he just kept checking it down over and over to Najee. Also handing it to him. Yes. 307 rushing attempts. That's crazy. But, I mean, the targets were absolutely crazy. And talking about Najee is difficult because I think that Najee will still be excellent for fantasy football. But the three of us, as a consensus, we are a little bit lower on him compared to his ADP, which it's not a huge discrepancy between where we have him ranked and where he's going, you know, just a couple of spots. But when you are in the first round, that's magnified. Like it's not just, oh, you have.

Najee two spots, three spots behind where he's being drafted. That's a much bigger deal in the first round. Yeah, right now he's the running back six being drafted at the seventh spot on average on sleeper. So, you know, when you guys like, Mike, you got him nine, Andy has him as the running back 12. So you're not going to draft him at the seventh spot. Right. If you've got several other running backs ahead of him. I have him as the running back six. So I have him basically exactly where his ADP is. I'm fine with Najee. I find since I made the transition to Tribisky and I just credit the offense being able to do a little bit more of this season, I think Najee is going to be fine. Year after year after I don't know how we can still have these cockamamie conversations.

about how like, well, this is the year that they're not going to, you know, they're going to rest their running back a little bit. You know, they're going to split up the workload or make sure he's not overused. It's like we, I feel like this is like seven years running where the Pittsburgh Steelers, oh, they're going to do it. They're going to bring in another back. They're going to rest them. It's like, no, they haven't and they don't. I will not believe that until after I see it. Najee is going to, he's going to touch the ball 330 times. I think if you had to.

Like, Najee will touch the ball the most in the NFL. Of every single NFL player that's not a quarterback, Najee will touch the ball the most. Now, he will be worse than last year, I believe, because he will not get the targets quite the same. And that's where so much of his value came from. He'll still be targeted a lot. But he's like, I think of him as just a poor man's last year, Najee Harris, which is still pretty darn good. He's a poor man version of himself. Yep. Yeah. All right. It's never been done. Well, I mean, it's been done because like if you go, if Jason Moore goes out and he spends a lot of money, now you're a poor version of Jason Moore. That's true. At the wide receiver. But I got so much cool stuff. I'm rich in my heart. At the wide receiver position, Deontay Johnson has been an elite wide receiver for fantasy football, often very disrespected, but currently being drafted as the wide receiver 13. He is a separation master.

He is separating himself currently from the team. That's how good he is. So good at separating. He's sitting out the team drills right now. He wants money. He's a hold in. Yeah, he is holding in. We have a bit of a game of chicken going on because the Steelers were, they were, you know, at least it was leaked out. I don't know if they were just flat out saying it, but it hit the press that. They are not going to give Deonté Johnson the type of money that he thinks he deserves. Are they leveraging to try and find a more team-friendly deal? That remains to be seen. But he's just, Deontay Johnson's so reliable, at least when Ben was the quarterback, five-plus receptions in all but one game. So, pretty reliable, but how are you?

Setting you up here, Jason. How are you feeling about Deontay Johnson, who we had a little talk about him on this week's footcast. Yeah, I don't like him. I just... No, no, no, no, no. I want you to explain your true feelings about him. Uh, so I find myself rooting against him at all times. Yes. You, for whatever reason, want Deontay Johnson to fail. For fantasy and... for football like i don't want the man to fail i hope he gets a new contract and has a great life wonderful children i hope you know he's got a great relationship at home but for 2022 you want him to fail you want him to crash and burn yeah yeah i do um and i don't know why this is not good analysis okay so

um sometimes there's just playing with hate in your heart shadows in your heart and then he's he's in that corner but let me explain my my rational i guess what happens if if i can do a little bit of self therapy here like you know please do i was very low on him compared to everyone like to not just get to compared to you, compared to everyone. Here it is. And that's how my stats, when I statted everybody out, that's just how it worked. Now I had started with Kenny Pickett as the quarterback. So when I worked backwards from there, I didn't expect many yards for the team. I didn't expect many touchdowns. So everyone was really, really nerfed. He has since come up quite a bit, but I'm still much lower on him than consensus. And I think the reason, like, because I'm there, I find myself, I mean, just naturally like rooting for my own stats to be right.

And I mean, I'm a human being, you know? Right. Guilty is charged. But the reality is he is a great separator. We say targets are an earned statistic. You earn your targets. But I think that there is legitimacy to the fact that Big Ben snap the ball and threw it. Snap the ball and through it. Snap the ball and through it. He did not want to hang in that pocket and get touched, get hit with a terrible offensive line. And who's open in half a second? Deontay Johnson. Deontay Johnson's open in half a second. I don't think that Mitcher Trubisky is just going to do that. I don't think he's just going to grab the ball and look to throw it to Deontay, grab the ball and try to save his life and throw it to Deontay as much. He hyper-targeted Alan Robinson. But with Alan Robinson, he didn't have other great options here. Chase Claypool is a good wide receiver. You just brought in two, I think good rookies, one great rookie. I think George Pickens is great. You've got Pat Frearmouth.

There are, and he gets loose. He gets loose. So I think that Deontay Johnson, like, I don't, I don't have him killed. I mean, I will never draft him. Because you want him to fail. I've got him as the wider receiver 23 right now. So he's not that low. But he's being drafted in the fourth round unsleeper right now, early fourth. Because he's been great. Yes, he has been great. In fact, last year on a points per game basis in half PPR, he was the wide receiver 10 and points per game. So we need to say that side of it too. Andy loves Deontay Johnson. I mean, you watch the film, there's not a lot to not like. It's just a matter of like scheme, quarterback, and situation that I think he's going to be overdrafted for where he finishes this year since he's not like this dominant.

big-bodied guy or this speedster or this, you know, he's just a good route runner and he's got Mitchell Trabisky. Whereas Alan Robinson, Alan Robinson was a freak athlete. Sure. I mean, let's come on off the ACL. I don't know. DeA. Johnson is interesting. But speaking of Chase Claypool, these numbers are fascinating, Jason. I'm going to read some things off for you. Okay. I'm going to listen. So 109 targets turning into 62 receptions for 870 yards. Not bad. 105 targets turning into 59 receptions for 860 yards. Not quite as good, but. But, you know, very, very close. Similar. That was his rookie year and his sophomore year. So, like, the raw statistics, very, very close across the board. But the third. Except as a rookie, nine receiving touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns as a sophomore, two total.

Touchdowns. Chase Claypool is, like, I'm not going to pound the table here for Chase Claypool. He absolutely burned me last year, but he's still, he's still interesting here. If you have, like, Mitch Trubisky will find out, is he a better quarterback than Ben was at this stage of his career? What we do know is Trubisky can move around. He can, He can roll out, he can bootleg out of the pocket and perhaps hit Chase Claypool down the sideline. Now, that would also require Chase Claypool to, you know, up those 50-50 ball game because it's, it was not very great this, this past year. But for a post-hyped sleeper who we, the fantasy community was very excited for Chase Claypool to take another step off of that rookie career because.

That was truly a great one. When you have 10 plus touchdowns as a rookie, that's a sign of great things to come, lets everybody down with the, and if he had just hit six touchdowns, we would not feel anything like we do about Chase Claypool, but going in the back of the ninth, wide receiver 46, with that size and that athleticism, I just, I think that Claypool is interesting late. I do think that Claypool is being overlooked for what his raw talent is. And according to him. And according to him, because I believe he said he's top three. Top three NFL wide receivers, which is very impressive to be one of the best three wide receivers in the league. Yeah. I mean, incredible stuff, Claypool. Jefferson Chase Claypool. Yep, nailed it. Good job. Oh, that was almost like a wheel of fortune too. Jamar Chase Claypool.

Oh, my goodness. Jamar Chase Claypool. Yeah, thank you, Brooks. Yeah, Brooks jumping in with that Wheel of Fortune knowledge. I am unaware of what the Wheel of Fortune thing is, but I like the Jamar Chase Claypool. That's exactly what it is. It's when you mash two phrases together, but one of the words, I've never heard of this. Of course, I've always never, you don't wheel, bro? No, I don't watch Wheel of Fortune. I'm not 80. Oh, you don't need to be 80 to enjoy some wheel? You need to be 80 to watch it. Get down with P. Say Jack? Come on.

How old is PCAJ? He doesn't look a day over 50. He's a robot. That's why. Anyways. Android. Jason Android. Yeah. Sorry. Is that the, that's the right? He's part human. So I think Chase Claypool is a good raw talent. He's another one of those guys I'd rather have in best ball than in a redraft because I think he'll have spike weeks, deep touchdowns, things like that, which the touchdown thing is crazy. You know, it kind of don't. hear what I'm not saying. I'm not calling him Mike Evans, but Mike Evans came into the league and scored a bunch of touchdowns and then it disappeared for touchdowns. And then it was like, oh, well, no, he came like. Yeah. The dude can score touchdowns. Claypool was a touchdown machine to start. So I, I don't worry about that at all. I think he's a value in best ball. But in redraft, I'm not sure that I love Trubisky's wide receiver two. For George Pickens, if you're curious, like, again, this is a new team.

But historically speaking, the Pittsburgh Steelers tremendous at drafting rookie wide receivers. Of course, I'm going to say this after we just talk about Claypool. But historically, rookie wide receivers for the Steelers don't really do a whole lot. And it's hard to see a world where Deontay is paying off. Chase Claypool is having an okay season. And it's Mitchell Tribusky or Kenny Pickett. I'm not. I think Pickens I'm not interested in him for redraft. I think Pickens is really good. He's a talented player. I like him a lot. He had good draft capital, good measurables, good production. And I think he's going to be on the field in three wide receiver sets. He projects to be their best outside receiver to me. So if that's the case.

I think it does more to hurt Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypool than it does to say George Pickens is going to come out and dominate as a rookie with Trubisky behind these other two wide receivers. But if he is good, then I do think it takes away from the other guys. I'm just not really interested in the receiving options for this offense personally. And that hurts me when it comes to talk about Pat Friar Mew. The Muth got very, very luth as a rookie. But this year, he's so good. And at the tight-end position, I don't mind someone betting on the talent of a player who looks like an up-and-coming, you know, a face of the position. But again, everything I said about Pickens, I double that over to the muth. It's hard to really get excited about an option solo in the order when it's Tribisky or a rookie throwing the ball. Yeah, but the shirt's so good.

So I think I'm in. Look, I want it to work. I want it to, I want to be excited on a weekly basis. We're all rooting for you, Pat. We're just not drafting you. All right. The Browns were eight and nine. They failed to hit their win. Wait, producer check. Do we have news on Sean Watson since we started recording? No, it's not, no. Okay. It's not coming out until this show is live. No, that's true. They did not hit their win total. They were projected to be. 10 and a half, or their projected total was 10 and a half. Five and six and one score games. Now they made a really big move here. Baker Mayfield is out. He will now be splitting first team reps with Sam. Do you want to speak on that for a moment? Yes, I do. So I feel like you, you should take, speaking of self therapy, you should have a moment. I have, I have been a.

supporter of Matt Ja Rule head coach of the Carolina Panthers. I have continued while everything and everyone says, no, I don't think he's a good coach. I just like, I still believe. You're the one dude at the fire festival. That's like, it's not that bad. I was the last one there. Everyone left me and it turns out y'all were right because I quit Ja Rule. Okay. He is splitting first team reps. with Baker and Donald. No one, including, you know, like the sports book lines, have any question who the week one starter is. It's going to be Baker Mayfield. The team doesn't have a question. The players don't have a question. It's going to be Baker Mayfield. But it's like, oh, and then, you know, it's for show. It's like, oh, it's to support Donald and make sure, hey, competition is good. You know what else is good? Practice. Yeah. Having, playing with your.

teammates and practicing for a new team. Maybe that would help you win games with Baker Mayfield. No, let's take half of his first team reps out so they could compete. Matt Jaw rule, my love affairs over. I remember. Murr. I remember last year there was a clown coach who was splitting reps with the first overall pick. Yeah. Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshu. Oh, you got to make it a competition. Let's try this theater. that maybe Trevor Lawrence won't be the starter. Just put the guy in. Baker is better than Sam Darnold. Is he the answer? Find out. Yeah. But the answer is he better than Sam Darnold? Yes. That's inked in. All right. Back to the Browns. So they... Thank you for that, though, Mike. Yeah, you're welcome. What's going on with the Sean Watson? The legal case, or the NFL punishment has still not been handed down as to this point.

The latest that I have heard is that the Cleveland Browns are getting ready for an eight-game suspension, which, okay, so for fantasy football purposes, that's a pretty big deal, that if you're talking about these, like, were you excited about Amari Cooper who the Cleveland Browns also traded for this offseason? They got him for, you know, a couple scraps, the Dallas Cowboys shedding salary, just overall done with Amari Cooper, who knows? But Amari Cooper is their number one wide receiver. But if it's not Deshaun Watson, it's going to be Jacoby, Jacoby Brissette. And as an offense, I mean, you just, well, Jacoby's like a fine player. I think he's a good backup quarterback for fantasy. You cannot be excited about anything other than Nick Chubb. Yeah, I mean, we've seen this play out, right? I mean, he came in for Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissette, and ran an offense kind of late.

to the party where it's like, well, this wasn't your team, but it's your team now. And we saw how it went, which was not the worst in the league, but worse than middle of the pack. So. Hey, where's the meat? Oh, yes. Where's the, Jacoby beef brisket? I mean, we, we saw him a good bit again last year for the Miami Dolphins where, uh, looks trying to do the quick math as a starter. I think he was two and three. Yeah. So. The reality is this is a really good team. And this is why they went out and got Deshaun Watson because they felt like they were a quarterback away from a Super Bowl. They've got great offensive defensive line. I think they've got depth at most of the defensive positions. Their running back core is the best in the league with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. I mean, they just need a quarterback to run it. And so Brissette, I think, can keep them alive from an NFL.

winning games perspective for Deshaun Watson to come back and in their eyes hopefully get them to the playoffs. I think that's the recipe they're preparing for right now. But for our purposes, for fantasy purposes, if you're talking about a redraft league, who I'm drafting, who I'm not drafting, I'm not drafting any of the past catchers at my home league at all unless Deshaun Watson has not suspended at all. That would change quite a bit. But if he starts the first six weeks, you know, I've talked about how I don't want Hopkins. I'm not drafting him hardly at all because I just don't want to have a roster clog for the first month and a half while I'm almost halfway through the regular season of fantasy football. Mari Cooper is not going to be great with Jacoby Brissette. Donovan People Jones, no receiving option. David and Joku, who I really, really like, not going to be great with Jacoby percent. Now, if this is best ball, you're doing an underdog draft, well, you're going to get.

You're going to get those weeks with Deshawn Watson. You have to draft the whole season at the beginning of the year. So I'm much more willing to do that to get those big weeks that I think will come versus in a redraft league. They're all going to be on waivers. You don't want them on your bench. By the time Watson comes back a week or two beforehand, there's going to be a mad scramble for the pieces on waivers. That's the way it's going to play out. Now, the running game, I think the running game is going to be great before.

during Deshaun Watson. So are you in on Nick Chubb in the second round? I am in on Nick Chubb in the second round. He's falling to the back of the second. I've seen him in the third. So at that 2-3 turn where Nick Chub is going, absolutely a couple years ago, he was like the running back six off the boards. And that was a little too pricey for me for a guy who's not a pass catcher, even though he's so great on the ground. But if I can get him at the two-three turn, yeah, I'm in. As many top 10 games as Joe Mixen, 36% of his games were great.

Like he's so, so good. But again, the pass catching is interesting. So we won't spend a lot of time on, but like to Sean Watson, historically a strong fantasy football player, like, but now he's coming into, this is a run first offense. This is not a high flying shootout type of an office. This is this is high T. Kevin Stefansky stuff. Do, like, does Watson, go right back into being like a top quarterback option for fantasy? Or is there any concerns there? No. Because of the offense. No, I mean, I think he comes back. He's mobile. He's going to run the ball. He's going to get some rushing touchdowns. You know, you see it with Ryan Tannahill. When you've got Derek Henry and it's like, hey, guys, stop this goal line rush attempt. And then it's like, well, Tana Hill gets seven rushing touchdowns of the season. That's going to happen for Deshaun Watson.

And while it is a run first team, and it has been with Stefanski, Stafansky's a good coach. And I think they've been running the ball because that's how they win. And I think they know they can win more games with Deshaun Watson than without him. And that's going to be because he's a great quarterback. So, you know, I'm not worried about Deshaun Watson being, you know, outside of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks on a per game basis once he's playing. I think he's going to be. Very good. Last year, 22nd and pace of play. So they slow things down. So, and remember when the Watson news come out, just kind of, you know, control, all that analysis that happened there. And then we'll update you later. Well, probably not. Because I think when it comes out, I mean, this is now I'm really setting myself up for massive failure. But if it comes out that it's, you know, an eight game suspension, then pretty much everything we said holds up.