Fantasy Football 2018 - Early WR Rankings Part 2

Look, I'm going to choose to believe because that's what you have to do. You're buying that Gruden hype. Well, I'm buying the export, the Crabtree leaving town shipped off. This is Amari Cooper's team. But can he handle that? I think he can. Look, it doesn't matter how good or bad of a season you had. You cannot have a game like the game he had last year against Kansas City unless you're a very, very talented player.

because they were force-feeding him the ball in that game, and he made plays. And yes, some of them he had to juggle first before he caught them. I get it. But Derek Carr came out, said he was playing injured, still very, very young. This is a player who is one year removed from just being outside the top 12. He finished 13th in 2016. And I still believe in Amari Cooper. So that's all it comes down to. Do you still believe in Amari Cooper? And to what level?

It wasn't good last year. There's no sugar on last year's performance. The interesting thing for Mario Cooper, you're talking about the export being a bump up. Will that actually be a bump up? Because Michael Crabtree was great for the Oakland Raiders for the past few years, meaning you can't just throw everything at trying to knock Amari Cooper out of the game plan. Amari Cooper, part of his problem is...

contested catches, which, in my opinion, a number one wide receiver has to be able to do. And these are numbers pulled directly from reception perception, which if you want these kinds of numbers, this is the stuff that's available in the ultimate draft kit. The average percentage for a wide receiver completing a contested catch in the NFL for Matt Harmon's charting is 64%. Cooper's rookie year, 61.5, under average.

His next year, which was his big year, bigger year, 57.5, or 57.1 under. A little worse. Last year, the lowest that reception has ever seen at 16.7% of his contested targets were not caught. Now, does that just simply fit into that narrative that Derek Carr kind of tried to explain the way the season for Mario Cooper saying that he was playing extremely hurt? I don't know if...

we're ever going to get to the point where Mari Cooper can carry a team's, carry the team's wide receiver load. You have Jordy Nelson who, unless Aaron Rogers has been playing with him, looked bad. Looked real bad last year. And this is a shot. I have some, I have great concerns for Mari Cooper. I'm at, I think Andy said 15, simply based on volume, but I don't think it's going to be a very fun ride.

Yeah, I've never in my entire, you know, football analysis life been so Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hywood's the player. Thank goodness you said that because I thought you were going to give me one of the two and then I'd be like either way you'd have been lying. I am the bipolar bear on Amari Cooper. It just depends on which side of the bed I wake up on because there are so many things, so many arrows that point to the perfect direction. If he was hurt last year and you see, I mean, look, the difference between, what did you say, 16% catch rate?

And his average of near 60 is huge. If he was injured last year, Michael Crabtree is the one. And he's healthy this year. And he's coming in. He's, what, 24? He's so young. 16. 16 years old in a man's body. Yeah. And, but the reality is he was straight bad last year. He just wasn't a good. 23 years old. He'll be 24 in June. Yeah. So, you know, I lean.

Right now, I mean, I lean volume-based is usually where I try to track my stats, and he will have volume. So that means that he should be a fine wide receiver next year. 83 for over 1,100 yards and five touchdowns in 2016. He has done it. This is not Devante Parker, who we're saying, wow, he's got a great opportunity. Let's see if he can finally do it. At least Amari's gone out and given you a season.

1,100 plus yards, 80 plus receptions. It was a very Hilton-esque season. No, 83 for 83 receptions is a high total. Sure, but he had 50% of his yards in four games. I'm going to make a... Because he can't. He has not been able to string together. If you put those four games over a season, he would have been the greatest receiver of all time. Yes, agreed. I'm making a chart here for myself to know if the last words I spoke on Amari Cooper were kind.

or not kind. Oh, it's like a, he loves me, he loves me not? Exactly. I'm making this and whatever the next thing I ever say about Amari Cooper will go to the other side. Okay. That's important. Because I really like them. This is like the NCAA jump ball rule. And he's terrible. Like it goes, what is it? Sideout? Yeah, side out to one team or the other. You'll look down and you go, okay, I'm down on him. All right. Number 15. Larry Fitzgerald. Then there's only one reason why he's at 15. And his name.

Is Jason. Nope. Yes. Nope. His name is Sam Bradford. His name is Jason. Mike has him at 11. I have him at 12. And I think I have him too low. And I'm not joking. He's going to be a 100 plus reception guy this year. Sam Bradford is not going to hurt that. I don't even care if it's Mike Glennon. No, I don't either. Larry, if it, look at, okay, let's go back and look at the Bears. Mike Glennon, what did he do? He was terrified?

He panicked, and then he dumped the ball off with a short pass. Yeah. AKA either David Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. That's what Skelton did last year. If you have Amari Cooper at 17 simply based on volume, whose volume is more guaranteed in the NFL when you're talking to these level of wide receivers than Larry Fitzgerald. 162 targets last year, the fifth ranked wide receiver.

perennially disrespected. I think Mike and I are just going to alternate speaking. Okay. I mean, look, I love Larry Fitzgerald. I think he will. Liar. No, I really do. If you told me Sam Bradford is playing 16 games, then Larry Fitzgerald's locked and loaded as a top 10 wide receiver. He'll have the volume and he's as clutch as it gets, but he is, he's a slot receiver now.

Right, which is fine. He's been a slot receiver for many years now. Sure, but my point is, like eight of them. Okay, tell me this. In 2012, 2013, 2014, when he didn't have a good quarterback, was he younger or was he bad then? Was he a terrible wide receiver? Because he wasn't finishing well for fantasy football those years. And here's his target counts, 154, 156, and 135. Those are great target counts.

So why wasn't he a top 10 wide receiver then? Because he had a bad quarterback. Now he's moved to the slot where touchdowns aren't as prevalent. So my point is this. If Sam Bradford does not play, if Sam Bradford is out, I'm not banking on Mike Glenn and Larry Fitzgerald. I'm just not going to say that he's going to be a fantasy superstar just because he gets a lot of volume. In games where Carson Palmer played versus another quarterback since 2014, receiving targets per game with him without Palmer,

with Palmer 8.9 without 9.2. It's just very selective that you go since 2014. Well, I was going since Palmer because that made sense, right, the starting quarterback. I wasn't being very selective. I was just going since Palmer. Do you want me to go 2013? Well, my point was during his poor years where he didn't have a quarterback like this year. He was an outside receiver back then. Like last year when he had Blaine Gabbart and Drew Stanton. And had 109 receptions.

I just don't know how it can get worse than what he had last year. He lost more outside receivers. No John Brown, no Geron Brown. Jason, your argument does, on the surface, it does sound convincing. The problem is back then he was the outside receiver, and now he is the slot guy where the ball is schemes to him and bad quarterbacks can still get him the ball. That's why I'm still perfectly fine with fits. But how many touchdowns is he going to have with Mike Glynon? Six, seven? That's all he needs.

Okay. He only had six last year. Boo-ya. And he was the fifth best wide receiver. Boo-ya. I don't want to disparage Larry Fitzgerald. You're doing it. I'm not. I've got him as a wide receiver two right now. Pathetic. At the bottom of the two. For a guy who's finished, here's the last three years, nine, twelve, five. Before that, if you want to take a stroll down. 52. 52, 1737. The skeleton year. It's a strange thing to argue that because he's older now.

He should be worse now. But he's better. But he's not. If we want to stroll. He found the fountain of view. If we want to, he kind of has, but if we want to stroll down the narrative street, Larry Fitzgerald needs 390 yards to pass Terrell Owens to be second all time. That's not very much. However, he needs 91 receptions to pass Tony Gonzalez for second of all time. Larry Fitzgerald has come back and Larry Fitzgerald is a intelligent man.

He knows that the Cardinals have little to no shot to even make the playoffs, let alone make the Super Bowl and make a run at a championship. They're going to break that record. So if Larry Fitzgerald plays 16 games, it's a lock, a lock for 90 plus receptions. It's happening. I definitely think that would be his goal. I do agree with that. But this isn't a Bruce Ariens. You're forgetting that part of it, too. This is a new offense. True. This isn't Bruce Ariens led.

He's not going to be the one, you know, is a defensive-minded head coach coming in going to say my priority is to get Larry Fitzgerald that record? Maybe. Yes. Okay. Yes. Yeah, you want to, you guys should do a 90 reception bet. You and Jason. This is all about, I'll make that 90 reception bet if you lose Sam Bradford. Yeah. Okay. Either way. All right. The quarterback does not matter. I am on record saying, so you're saying that. So how do you want to phrase this bet?

Jason's not willing to, he's not willing to do the bet if San Bradford's healthy for 16. So if San Bradford plays fewer than 16 games, no, I will not take a 90 reception bet. I knew he wouldn't. I will take a, I will take a top 15 wider receiver bet, no problem. Fine, put it on the board. Can I join you? Yes, yes, you can. Water bed. Easy money, or in this case, water.

Yes. Alshan Jeffrey comes in at 16. I'm far less excited to talk about Alshan. You know, Alshan ended up the wide receiver 18 last year. He played 16 games. He was great in the playoffs. And the team is great. And allegedly played with a, what was it, a problem with his rotator cuff? Mm-hmm. The whole season? Apparently.

I didn't know this. Caught 57 of 120 passes when he was targeted. That is the fourth worst reception percentage in the league. What? My goodness. 47.5%. That is accurate. That explains 57 receptions on 120 targets. If only he had two fewer receptions. He was the 12th most consistent receiver. Jason, you got him the highest. You got him at 15?

Mm-hmm. And you got Larry Fitzgerald at 21. Explain. Well, a player who was half the reception. 35th in among the league in wide receiver's receptions. I am. Look, we know what this show's about now. I am absolutely fine with where I have Larry Fitzgerald ranked right now. Alshan Jeffrey. On the ground. Alshan Jeffrey is, I think he'll finish the year as a wider receiver two. And when I look at.

him compared to a lot of the guys around him, the question marks, say, you know, a Josh Gordon. Is he going to be good on the Browns? Is he going to be the number one target? Alan Robinson, how is Mitchell Trubisky? It's just a matter of we've seen Alshan be successful, especially as a touchdown gobbler. I worry a little bit about the health. That is the best, most accurate nickname. He is a touchdown gobbler. Nine touchdowns.

Nine touchdowns. That saved this whole season. The touchdown goblin. The thing about Alshan that I don't like, and I have him the lowest at 19, is not anything to do with his talent or ability. It's the fact that this team is filled with different weapons. They're willing to win however the defense plays them, whether that means running the ball with four different running backs, filling the stat sheet for Zach Ertz.

They have other weapons there. They upgraded their wide receiver two from Tori Smith to Mike Wallace. If Jeffrey doesn't score, he doesn't make you happy that week. Yeah, I agree. And my actual biggest issue with Alshan, and he will drop like a rock in my rankings based on this is the health.

of both him and Carson wins. So we'll know more as we get close to the season because he underwent surgery after the season. He's a surgery gobbler too, just for the record. Yes, he is. So, you know, if. Delicious. If coming into preseason, you know, reports are bad and they're not there, then he'll certainly drop to even below Larry Fitzgerald. For now, I'm, oh, even below Larry. There is no below. My goodness. Where do I, so you guys know I've got Larry ranked at wide receiver 87, right?