Fantasy Football 2018 - Early WR Rankings Part 2

But he definitely finished behind this ranking. So I think that would be the surprise for listeners is he was 13 last year. We actually are projecting an improvement for Doug Baldwin. Yeah. Tyreek Hill comes in at number 12. Jason, you've got him right there at 12. Mike 13. I have 14. And last year, all right, he played 15 games. 75 receptions, 1,183 yards, 7 touchdowns.

and throws in another 17 carries. Wide receiver 8. He's an example of one of the players that during shows this time last year or shows leading up into the season, you really wondered about, you know, you were coming off the punt return, kick return, monster play season. You heard all the hype about being more involved in the offense, and it came to fruition. Tyreek Hill was heavily used. He fought through injury.

several times throughout the year. And here he is. And number 12, still a wide receiver won on an early rankings last year finished eighth. What do you guys think? It's difficult to rank Tyree Kill appropriately because last year he had 105 targets. The receiver with the most targets behind him was Albert Wilson with 62. And you know that Travis Kelsey is going to be involved. Travis Kelsey led the team targets.

They gave Sammy Watkins a three-year deal worth $48 million. He's not coming in for 62 targets. So if Kelsey is guaranteed to get his 100 plus, what happens to Hill? Does it drop to the high 80s? Because I just don't see a world where Sammy Watkins comes in and gets Albert Wilson level of 62 targets. We've said that on the show, or at least I have.

I want the better value between those players, even though I think and have Hill at 14, even though I think that, you know, Hill may outperform him fantasy-wise due to the big plays. I want the better value in the draft. Yes. I think Sammy is going to be the better value. Certainly.

Tyree Kill has, I think, a larger risk rating right now for being ranked this high. Had Sammy Watkins not come and Alex Smith not left, I would have Tyree Kill up, you know, at number five or six, he is an extreme talent. But there's so many changing parts here where you're going from a large target market share to all of a sudden if he ends up next year with, you know, 20 fewer targets, that's going to...

That could completely massacre it. 105 targets. Oh, there's plenty of room to grow. I mean, that's not too high. No, he did not have too many targets in general. But the point is his market share within the offense. And now what's going to happen when Mahomes comes? Because Mahomes has the big gun of an arm. And that's that downfield. Now, Tyree kills what Alex Smith did last year. Alex Smith was the best downfield passer in the league. But now with Sammy Watkins.

Who's the downfield player? Tyreek Hill's the downfield player. Watkins can be two, but Tyreek Hill's not going to not streak down the field. It was gold for them. They just got to go with my go-to on Madden. Everyone runs the nine route. It's a Hail Mary play. Every play. You stack three to the right, one to the left. Yeah, that's my go-to. But, yeah, there's no way. I mean, you can't look at it in binary. You know, it's not, there's one deep option now, and you're not going to run Tyreek Hill down the field.

He's going to run down the field. That's what he does better than anybody in. I mean, he averaged 78 receiving yards a game last year. I look at him the same way. I look at him in the exact same vein as T.Y. Hilton, which is traditionally T.Y. Hilton doesn't score double-digit touchdowns. He makes monstrous plays. Here's the question I have for you, Jay. Let's say I told you both players, Tyree Kill, Sammy Watkins, same draft value, and we'll score the exact same amount of fantasy points. Which player do you want for fantasy football?

Because then you're talking about consistency. Then you're talking about week to week up and down. Which player do you want? Because Tyree Kill can win you a week. Maybe Sammy's in that same category. I would rather have Sammy Watkins in that world because I think Sammy Watkins is much more the prototypical wide receiver one. Tyree Kill gets it done with extreme speed. But Sammy Watkins has kind of that combination. 6-1-211 with the 4-3 speed.

Sammy is, you know, in that great 2014 draft class that's unfathomable, Sammy Watkins went ahead of Odell Beckham and Mike Evans. Long time ago. No, no, no. I realize that. And he's dealt with injury. But my point is if I knew that they were both going to be, you know, the same amount of targets, the same amount at the end of the day, I would rather have Watkins. But we are, and myself included, projecting Tyreek Hill ahead of Watkins because we've seen it.

because it's been in this offense. You know, Tyree Kill knows it. Andy Reid now we know that Andy Reid knows how to use Tyree Kill to extreme success. So I'm going to project Tyree Kill, you know, I've got him at 11. I have a sidebar conversation. Are we underestimating the Red Zone impact that Sammy Watkins will have against Travis Kelsey?

Because Travis Kelsey last year had 20 red zone targets. He had five red zone touchdowns. And Tyree Kill, for those who don't remember, did absolutely nothing inside the 20. All of his touchdowns came from beyond that. They didn't even go to Tyree Kill inside the 20. And now they have another go-to guy. And the same walk is a big dude. And then you add in, same with Kelsey. You add in that change with Alex Smith. And you go.

Maybe the, yeah, I mean, I think the point here that's been reiterated is there's a lot of unknown in the offense now because you have Sammy Watkins and Patma Holmes. And what does that represent? Does that represent more of a passing share? Does Reed go pass heavy? Pass crazy? Does the defense getting weaker mean that they have to rely on the passing game? And it makes the target count that Tyreek Hill had acceptable? Those are possible outcomes.

But I still want the best value. And I hear a lot of love for Sammy Watkins here, and I think it's fair. And I don't know if you're going to get that in the community because I think you're going to have people more afraid to endorse Sammy Watkins because we haven't seen it yet. But that's where you make your mark in fantasy. It's pretty hard to endorse. All right. Before we move on, before we move on, I want to thank RX Bar for sponsoring today's

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All right, this next guy's name is spelled T-Y-H-I-L-T-O-N. Isn't there periods in there? T-D-D-D-D-Y dot. Y-D-D-D-Y-D-D-Hilton. What is happening? T-Y Hilton. Jason. You have him at 11. Mike, 14. I got him at 15 as of today. We're having the faith. In 2016.

So the last time he had a healthy Andrew Luck, he was the fifth best fantasy wide receiver. That is what you have to think about when it comes to T.I. Hilton. He can be that good. He can be a top five guy because you end up with a top five quarterback at the time in fantasy football. So last year, not so good. 57 for 966 and 4. And I feel like all 57 came in one game. Oh, I can tell you. I was going to say, yeah, break it down. His end of season stats actually look okay.

However, if you had it for fantasy, you know this, that 62% of his yards came in four games. Four games. I would say that makes sense with what he had behind Sinner and what happened last year. And they're not a, he didn't have help either. I'm just saying to have Hilton in your fantasy lineup for 16 weeks.

Oh, it's terrible. A guy who finishes with 966 yards, you're thinking... Yeah, you flipped a four-sided coin and you needed it to come up heads. Yeah. The truth is from last year, I do not believe... I do not believe that it was T.Y. What are the three other sides? No, no, no, we're stopping here. Okay. What are the three? We're not stopping. So we got heads, we got tails. Wait, didn't he say six-sided? No, four-sided. He went four. Four-sided.

Heads, tails, fails, and quails. There you go. Thank you, Mike. Well, it came up fails last year. The four-sided coin, by the way, that normally has the Mount Rushmore heads, all four. It's on there. Ooh, I got Lincoln. Surprise you didn't know it. I don't blame T.Y. Hilton, if you look at it. No, you have to throw it out. Yeah, you do throw it out. You know, Jack Doyle, when you watch the games, you basically had Brissette coming in and saying,

Today, who am I going to be able to look at first? And it was either Jack Doyle normally or every now and then if, you know, the bad defense and he felt like he could look a little further down the field. It was T.Y. Hilton. That's how I felt about watching those games. I still saw separation on tape all the time from T.Y. Hilton. Big play capability. He was fourth best in the NFL when it came to yards per reception with 16.9. He did what T.Y. Hilton does. The frequency of targets, the ability to get him the ball.

The accuracy of the targets. The accuracy of the targets. All of those things factored in. So the real question is, is you're kind of, I'm kind of hedging with him at 15 right here. Because you'll move him up if Andrew Luck is fully healthy. And I'll move him down if he's not. So it's kind of a, yeah, exactly. So and Jason, you took, I'm assuming an approach where you've got him inside that top 12 because that's probably where he belongs if Andrew Luck is healthy. Yeah, I think I lean towards Andrew Luck being healthy. So I'm, I feel like I'm hedging as well. I,

he should be kind of a top eight wide receiver if Andrew Luck is truly back and healthy. He is going to be a value in this year's draft if luck is healthy. Because even if Luck's healthy, he's playing in preseason, which he absolutely should be. Like if he's not playing in preseason, the questions have been answered. So I think by draft day, the questions will be answered. And assuming he's playing in preseason, he'll get a tiny bump.

But I don't believe that he will get, that T.Y. Hilton will get the bump up to where he will finish this year. So I think T.Y. Hilton's going to be a really good value. Or if luck's not playing in the preseason, there's no way I'm mitigated disaster. He's off of my draft board. 100%. I won't. If luck's not playing in the preseason, I will not draft T.Y. Hilton. Bold. All right. Mike, do you have anything to add to Hilton? I think we've covered it. Here's a polarizing character that I've forced up our consensus boards. Yes, you have.

Amari Cooper coming in at number 14. We've been here before, Amari. This is your time of the season. The Hyde Train is on the tracks. I've got him at 10. Jason 17, Mike 15. I feel much better about my ranking than your guys. Last year, 48 receptions for 680 yards, 7 touchdowns on 96 targets. The wide receiver 33, which is very far from 10, which is where I have him.