Fantasy Football 2018 - Early RB Rankings Part 2

But I don't expect it to. Do you feel like he's very safe against that front seven in Los Angeles? It's not preferable. However, that's... Because I hear they have to play them 16 times ago. That's going to say, they play them twice. There's no guarantee that they... That's what passing game viability does. Exactly. It gives you a higher floor. You don't have to just run into it every single time. Jerich McKinnon gets to go out in space. Yeah.

Someone should have told Bishop Sanky that. He might be in the NFL. All right. Let's talk about Jordan Howard. Someone should have told Jeff Fisher that. Yeah. Oh. Yeah. Jordan Howard, number 15 on our ranks. Jason and I have them a little lower than Mike. We both have them at 16. Mike, you got them up at 12. So inside that top 12. Last year, look, it was going to be hard to meet expectations.

Last year on a team that struggled, but he still had 276 carries for over 1,100 yards. Nine touchdowns couldn't really catch. Couldn't catch the ball. 23 receptions for 125 yards on 32 targets. Ended up the RB 12 solid. And I think the storyline behind Jordan Howard, who through the first two years of his career, have put up, you know, he's put up top 12 performances.

over the course of the season. The issue was the bust percentage last year? Yes. Very high. 38% of games he busted. And then the issue is also Tariq Cohen and Nagy and actually having some outside weapons. Does that lend itself the way that we normally bend, which is look, better offense is better for the running back in general, more opportunities to score? Or do you see that nine touchdown number not really being something he's going to move up on despite the optimism in the offense? The touchdowns

Those things fluctuate, so I would project him for a right around that 7 to 9 mark. But why I'm excited for Jordan Howard, he had 299 touches last year. That's a great number. I love it. But you have Matt Nagy coming in. When Matt Nagy took over play calling for the Chiefs, he screwed up his first game. He gave Cream Hunt nine attempts. After that, the next three games, which were the final three games of the regular season,

Cream Hunt averaged 26 rushing attempts per game. And you said it, Andy. Now they have actual passing weapons in the receiving game in Chicago, which they did not have last year. You have a true alpha number one in Alan Robinson leading away from just completely stacking the box in every single play. As long as the play calling is imaginative, which I believe it will be. So I like Jordan Howard moving forward.

Unfortunately, he is not a pass-catching running back, which caps things out. It leads to something like a 38% bust rate, which is by far the highest percentage of busted games for a running back one of last year. But I still love him moving forward into next year. Yeah, I will admit that Jordan Howard is one of the most difficult players that I have.

getting a grasp on what his role is going to be in Matt Nagy's system. Now, Matt and Aggie came in. He said some really glowing things about Jordan Howard, which is always promising. But then, you know, you kind of expect that. You'd be surprised if he came in and go, well, we're going to have to blow up the running back core or only, you know, pro bowler from offense. You know, so he had the, you know, the NFL leading rusher last year. And Jordan Howard is the type that obviously can do that.

So I go back and forth because he also wants a guy that can catch the ball that is not Jordan Howard. And what Nagy said is that this guy's got a very unique skill set, but it's a good unique, and we're going to have to find out how to use him. That phrase is like, okay, I can see it going either way. 43% of the time Jordan Howard faced eight.

or more men in the box. 43% of his carries. That leads to the, what, 1.5 yards before contact per carry. A lot of guys in the box. Almost nobody that was a full-time back faced more defenders in the box on a regular basis. Leonard Fournette actually had more. 48% of the time. That would be the Blake Bortle's disrespect that Jacksonville faced. But very interesting. And yes, very, I think that there's...

some hesitation with Jordan Howard and maybe he ends up being kind of that ideal RB2 for your team if you can somehow sneak him, right? I think that's where he will be drafted. I'll be very happy. I would love him as my second running back, where he's got the potential to be one of those top 10 running backs this year with an improved offense, less men in the box that he's running against. One of the reasons I enjoy the deeper ranking shows is because you start to talk about players with more.

question marks overall and more range of outcomes. Ranges of outcomes, bets that you have to make as a fantasy owner saying, yes, I believe this about that player. No, I don't believe that. Joe Mixing comes in at number 16, another player that I think will be, I think he'll be drafted fairly high. Yes. Because this is his backfield now. This is his opportunity. And because of the youth and the skill set, you know, he averaged 10.4 yards after the catch. This was up there.

So even though he has Joe Bernard, another pass catcher in the backfield in Cincinnati, he performed well when he got the ball out of the backfield. But on the ground last year, nothing really to smile about. 178 carries, 626 yards, 4 touchdowns, only 30 receptions. But now what do we expect from Joe Mixing?

I expect him to be better. I really, really do. That's good. I mean, the offensive line, we talked about it earlier, the Bengals were terrible. They've already made some improvements or some attempted improvements for their offensive line. And when you watched Joe Mixon in college, he was truly special. When I watched Joe Mixon in the NFL, I didn't see that.

I mean, it was really, really disappointing. He was still okay. He didn't, you know, completely poop your draft stock. I've got him in Dynasty and everyone's trying to trade for him. What do you talk? He was drafted in like the fourth third or fourth round last year and he was RB34. I would say that would be. I'm talking Dynasty. Like he was, you know, he was somewhere between the third to fifth pick in a dynasty rookie draft last year. And he hasn't done anything to ruin that to say he's a bust. But I don't think anybody who.

drafted him, was happy with what he did on the field. But I see the team as a whole getting healthier, the offensive line being improved. And now Mixing coming in to day one as the starter versus having to try to find his way middle of the season, not getting training camp in that role. I think Mixon will genuinely shine. I think he'll be great this season. Jason, you have him at 13. I got him at 15, Mike. 17. And he does have.

From a range of outcome standpoint, talent, opportunity, if the offensive lines improved, they're going to commit to Joe Mixon. That's the fact. You're going to get a season of seeing what Joe Mixon has, and that's something you should be excited about as a fantasy owner. I still think that Gio will be heavily utilized. Yeah, you can only use Gio so much. There's a little like a health meter on him. I think we've talked about that before. Yeah, he does have a little bit of that, the Amandola.

Health meter. Yeah, you only can give him so much work. But Derek Henry comes in at number 17. Derek Henry is going to be another hot topic all offseason. Now you've added Dionne Lewis to that backfield, but Derek Henry will get his opportunity to be the guy in the backfield. And last year, 50% of the time Derek Henry faced 8 plus in the box.

To me, that screams of the predictability of that offense last year, which is one of the reasons why, despite making the playoffs, they made a change at the head coaching position. So do we have confidence that they're going to use Derek Henry the right way and we'll get to see this kind of explosive, evasive skill set? You saw him last year. I believe he and Dionne Lewis led the league in yards after first contact. So what are we going to see from Derek Henry? What is the range of outcomes now that Dionne Lewis has been...

Added to the backfield. Here's the range of outcomes for Derek Henry. We have a sample size last year of three games with no DeMarco Murray. And here's what happened. Against Jacksonville, he ran the ball 28 times. I love it. He rushed the ball on those 28 carries. He gained 51 yards. Not as much. I don't love that as much. Yeah, you don't like that. Look, it's Jacksonville. But Derek Henry saved the day with a 66-yard touchdown reception.

The wild card weekend against the Chiefs, if you don't remember this, it was amazing. It was feed Derek Henry the ball, watch him destroy because 23 carries, 156 yards, and a rushing touchdown. He was an absolute beast. And then the next week, against the Patriots, 12 for 28. That's your range of outcomes for Derek Henry. Well, but see, for that first game, the really good game, that's when the ownership was up there ripping up to Marco Murray's contract for the next year. So they couldn't undo that.

after he didn't play well the next week. Just saying, it's kind of all over the map. I think that the Titans, their staff has spoke volumes about, can Derek Henry actually be that three-down guy that the draft Twitter assumed that he was going to be when he was taken in the second round? And the Titans say no. I don't think that means you need to.

totally dismissed Derek Henry. He's still going to get the ball. He's still going to carry, what, 250 plus times? Yes. And just so you know, because we won't get all the way to 25, we have Deanne Lewis as our consensus 25, Derek Henry at 17. As I sit here, I already wrote down a note to look at that Henry versus Dion Lewis because I actually think that at the end of the year, Dion Lewis.

Better value? He'll definitely, without a shadow of it, that'll be the better value come draft day. But I think there's a chance he's just the better back, more fantasy points a la Alvin Camara. You know, the... Yeah, that's a fair comparison. The value you get in the passing game versus the running game, that's all going to Dionne Lewis. But there will be rushing work for Dionne Lewis as well. We don't know how they're going to use Lewis. If you had the confidence of like what we saw in at the end of the year where he was the...

RB5 in PPR leagues in New England. I think there's just question marks. New head, new coaching staff. Does Mario to bounce back? Is the offensive line improved? I think there are a lot of, I think there's some value to be had in that backfield. I don't know which right. You're right. But the new staff coming in got rid of DeMarco, his bloated contract, and they brought in Dionne Lewis.

They didn't say, okay, Henry, you're the guy. They went out and said, it's going to be a 1A1B. That's how I interpret that. Actually, they technically said, Henry, you're going to be the guy and did all of that confidence, talked about him being a pass catcher, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and then they signed deal. Yeah, but what they did said, the opposite. Yeah, but also built into Derek Henry is the fact that Dionne Lewis has played a full season one time. True. Before that, it was seven games, seven games, nine games.

Yes, also built into Derek Henry as a Mack truck. That's also true. Each leg is one truck. It's one truck. Number 18 on the running back rankings, it's Carlos Hyde. No surprise Mike has him highest among the three of us at 18. So you didn't go crazy. And then Jason, 19. I have him at 24. I'll be honest with you. I ranked him at 24.

because I am conceding that the Browns have 17 draft picks as of today. I believe something in the top half of the draft is going the running back direction. Could be as early as number four with Sequin Barclay. So I do not think Carlos Hyde will have as much of the share of the backfield as maybe you guys are projecting. I don't know how you considered it. That's what we're talking about. Last year, though, I mean, the last two years, 2016, he was the 15th best back. 2017. Last year, number nine.

on a bad team. Got it done. 240 carries. Under 1,000 yards, he was stuffed 26% of the time, and he just never fit what Kyle Shanahan wanted in the backfield. But we need to remember that just because that guy, just because that coach doesn't want him, doesn't mean he was bad, right? No, Carliside was great. His release, not being re-signed, there wasn't necessarily an indictment on his ability. Right, just didn't fit that scheme.

If Carlos Hyde at the end of the year is a top 12 back, I would not be shocked. He is a much, much better back than Isaiah Crowell. The last year was kind of, you know, in discussion, in ADP was kind of inching his way up to that running back one look. He's a rich man's Isaiah Crowell. That's not a great compliment. No, that's fair. But that's what he is. So, you know, Isaiah Crowell last year finished about 30th. Right now we've got...