Early Busts & Values + Raisin' the Bar, Best Ball Mistakes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/16

on Underdog as the wide receiver 64 in the 12th round, and on Sleeper in the 16th round as the wide receiver 70. Now, I truly believe that Jefferson is a value pick. I'm not saying that he's going to finish as a top 24 guy, but he is going to return a massive value if you're drafting him as the wide receiver 64 in a best ball tournament. So last year, you know, look, Van Jefferson's already had...

at least some success. Like I said, high fantasy finish finished in his sophomore year with 50 receptions over 800 yards and six touchdowns. Look, he's seventh in yards per reception. He saw more red zone targets than Adam Thielen, Jamar Chase, C.D. Lamb and Debo. Unfortunately, he only caught four of them, but look, that happens. If you remember the... He had some rough games. A super drop game. Yeah, see, he has some drops.

But I was going to say, like, if you remember, I think it was the sophomore year or something of Mike Evans, and like all of a sudden his touchdown production just dropped. And it was they just, he didn't catch the red zone targets. And then he caught them the following year. So it was as simple as that. And like Van Jefferson can improve. Like it's his third year going in the league. And last year before O'Dell Beckham was on the team, oh, Van Jefferson was averaging basically six targets.

a game. And like that, those are some solid numbers for someone you are drafting, uh, with a pick that is essentially meaningless. And you're getting targets from Matthew Stafford on a high powered offense. And then once Beckham was traded to the team and really established himself, those targets dropped to about three per game. So his, his actual opportunities getting cut in half. And now looking at what has happened this year, Alan Robinson is their high priced, you know, free agent acquisition. He's the O'Dell Beckham acquisition.

Right. And I think so like last year's experiment was, does Odo Beckham still have it? Turns out he does. Now, Alan Robinson, does he still have it? That is absolutely to be determined because last year on the field, Alan Robinson looked like it just an absolute garbage can who did not care and did not want to be playing football. And.

Meanwhile, then Van Jefferson would have a tremendous opportunity if Alan Robinson has, in fact, lost a step. He already knows the offense. Alan Robinson, I mentioned wide receivers changing teams. It doesn't really, it often is worse for them than it is an upgrade for them. And so I just, I don't see a way that Van Jefferson being drafted as the wide receiver 64 doesn't bring your team value, especially when you're talking like,

Is your second flex player, a guy who can go off at any particular time, six games as a top 24 wide receiver? Van Jefferson is free and will give you production. They call him the MBS of the West. Did you know that? I just heard that. Yeah, this one is, I don't really have an argument against your contention that he could have a better fantasy finish. But me personally, it's just like, me, like, I don't care.

Like I don't care about Van Jefferson because I don't think that he can get to a place that I'm like excited about. So I just think I would have him. He might be okay and then I might cut him. But maybe I'm wrong. If he's drafted as the wide receiver 70 and he finishes as the wide receiver 44, okay, you drafted something better. But that's not really helping your. And that's where I was going to say. And Mike brought it up earlier. But if it's a best ball, you know that he's.

The route to him getting to that wide receiver 35 or wherever he might finish is going to be a little volatile. It's going to be he caught a big bomb touchdown. And so that's great for best ball for how late he's going. And the only other reason I can kind of get behind this is because it somewhat insinuates the demise of Alan Robinson, which is...

really a it's all he's rooting for now guys we do that's not true cream i'm i'm rooting for cream no let's let's lay this out here did we or did we not make a dynasty transaction recently that may change your opinion on the future of allan robinson uh we may or may be dependent on the yes chicken or egg i think it was uh based on my view of allan robinson we did complete a dynasty trade it was i i'm curious what people would think

Yeah, I don't remember the picks. I got a 20-20-second, 2,024 second. Yes, a 2024 second round pick. And Ju-Ju-J-J-Ju-Smith. That was the trade. So Alan's coming to town for my team. And then, you know, obviously the Rams in and of, once they lost Robert Woods last year, it wasn't enough to have Cup and Jefferson. They had to go and add Odell Beckham.

they have a I think they added Beckham before it was like they added him like the week before Woods towards ACL if I remember it right I believe that is I believe that is my memory as well I believe it's my memory yes you believe that you may so even even then I mean that's even more making my point of they were not content with their receiving court as it was

And then in the soft season, they also weren't content with the receiving corps as it was, which makes sense. And they went out and got Alan Robinson and then we'll see if he's done. Because if he's done, Van Jefferson's going to be vastly outperforming this number. There's just no way that he can't. Yeah, I do think that O'Dell Beckham Jr. ends up on the Rams this year at some point. Oh, come on.

No, I really do. But when does he play? I do not think that. I do not think that. No, no, no, I know. That's why he's not on any team right now. He's not signed anywhere. But I think that the team that will bring him in post that would be the Rams. Football season is back. And whether you're tracking your lineups or cheering on your favorite team, DirecTV makes it easy to catch all your pro and college football action in one place.

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Bring in the heat. Yeah, well. No Kareem Hunt related information here? I mean, well, it's a little too early to declare that. But here's a tip of the day, draft Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt. Actually, ironically, Kareem Hunt might prove to be a bad pick for the point of what I'm about to talk about.

which is specific to best ball mania. Okay, so if you're playing an underdog and you, you know, you're playing with 10 buddies or you're in one of the quick little three-person drafts, obviously this does not apply the same. But when you're trying to bring down the millions of dollars, which we want the Foot Clan to do, here are some tips. If you're getting in those best ball manias, the ponies, or any of the big tournament style things.

Here's some more strategy for you to help you win based on the information we have from last year. Number one, there's two tips here. Number one, don't reach to complete the stacks. Now, stacks are important. There's higher win rates for quarterback wide receiver stacks, but not when you reach. The best example of this is that last year, Kirk Cousins, who was a late 11th, early 12th round pick, he had a top four win rate at the quarterback position. He was a great pick.

You picked him a round earlier. He was only the 16th best win rate. Do not reach for, you know, if you draft Tyree Kill or Jalen Waddle early and you want to grab Tua, Tua's, you know, his ADP is quarterback 18, the 12th round. Don't grab them in the 10th. Let him drop to you. Keep grabbing the best players available. When you reach to complete the stack, you're hurting your team, don't do it. Mistake number two, and this one I think is more interesting. It is something I.

have recently been called out on correctly because I was unaware of this. So I learn it. I want to bring this to you guys. Where you grab your running backs, specifically your fourth running back. Okay, we talked three weeks ago about kind of the optimal lineups. You want five or six running backs, two or three quarterbacks, two or three tight ins, and then fill the rest of your roster with wide receivers, six through nine wide receivers.

When you draft your fourth running back before round 10, you have a bad win rate for advancing on in these underdog tournaments. And that sounds kind of crazy. You know, but here's what you're doing when you're playing the best ball mania. You are predicting a perfect outcome, right? If you're going to win the tournament, everything has to go right. So if you draft stud running backs early, right? You grabbed CMC.

with the number two pick. Stay's healthy, dominates. And you draft James Connor in the third. Touchdowns, they're back. Right. When you add another run, you're counting on those running backs to score every week, to stay healthy, to help you win. When you draft that fourth running back who's not going to crack your lineup in the eighth round, in the ninth round, even in the 10th round, it doesn't help you as much as the.

much more volatile wide receiver position, when you shotgun that and you grab wide receivers there, your fourth, your fifth, your sixth, your seventh, eighth, ninth, ninth wide receiver is going to crack your line up more often because they happen to get a long bomb touchdown. So don't draft your fourth running back in best ball mania until after the 10th round. Ready to make a play for your future? Southern New Hampshire University has over 200 online degree programs.

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The NFL season coming quick. Jason, your cream hunt t-shirts should arrive soon. Awesome. Which, ironically, Kyle will buy the exact same ones. They'll just have like an X through them so you guys can face off against each other. We will have a boxing match at some point. Oh, really? Yeah, just for charity. How do you feel about that, Kyle? As long as it's for the kids. Box for the kids. Boxing for kids. Just rope a dope, Kyle. Someone was remembering. Tighter me out.

Yeah. You just got to make it past 30 seconds. You're being good. I was going to say, just if you can sustain five to 10 seconds of Jason's punching, then he'll be winning. Oh, that's smart. That's smart. I hadn't thought about that plan. Let's turn this into wrestling. I'll lay on you. Just dodge. Just dodge. All right. On behalf of Raisin Nutbrand and the rest of the fantasy footballers, take care, everybody. Thank you for supporting the show. Check out the community to join the foot.com. Until next time, farewell. Goodbye.

you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot dot com and follow us on twitter at the ffballers

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