Early Busts & Values + Raisin' the Bar, Best Ball Mistakes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/16

middle of the first round. So I would agree completely with your sentiment. And Mike's, I love Najee. Like he was one of my favorite college prospects. I think he's awesome. I think he's going to be good. But I don't think he will pay off on that draft cost. And just so people understand how extreme the volume was, he was on the field for 980 snaps last year. That is the second most for any running back in the last five years total. So this was a very...

This was in every single down, heavily dependent on Najee Harris offense, which, look, that's a feather in your cap if you can do that. That's a feather in your cap as a rookie if you can go out and be that dependable for your team. So he will be heavily involved. But I think that that fantasy finish is going to come down a little bit. Ten total touchdowns last year. You know, he can definitely hit that number again. But yeah, RB9, RB10. I mean, let's.

We're still being, we're still being fair to Mr. Harris. Yeah. I think, I think we have him pegged where he'll finish. Yeah. Which is not where I will be. Good work, team. All right. I will go next because this man introduced the show. He is potentially the best quarterback in the league. And my bust pick is Patrick Mahomes. Hoof.

Just like Mike said, this doesn't mean that the player is bad and it doesn't mean that they are going to suck and not be a valuable fantasy commodity. But do not draft Patrick Mahomes. Full stop. Full stop. Don't draft him anywhere near where he's being drafted. Look, if you are going to take a quarterback early.

We've talked a lot about, this is common knowledge now. The, you know, drafting quarterbacks later is far more valuable for fantasy football. But there is still a point where you can draft a quarterback early and it can pay off. If you took Josh Allen last year, you had to pay.

quite a bit to get him. And it was worth it. He dominated the quarterback position. He was the clear-cut quarterback one, and you got a positional advantage. Great. That's what has to happen if you're drafting Patrick Mahomes, who is, on average, the second quarterback being drafted. He's going as high as the third round, as low as the fourth round. These are valuable running backs and wide receivers that you are giving up to draft a quarterback. Now, if you do that,

He better be the quarterback one or the, you know, if he is the quarterback two, there's got to be a gap between him and the rest of the field. You have to have dominance. Patrick Mahomes has not been a top three quarterback since his 50 touchdown year, three years ago. He hasn't been in the top three. Now he loses Tyree Kill, 25% of his targets, 36% of his air yards, and 100% of the magic.

Tyreek Hill. Oh, 100%. That's a bold statement. That was rude to Travis Kelsey. Yes, very. But it sounded really nice. And so I said it. But losing Tyree Kill is a big deal. Over the last decade, there have been seven quarterbacks who have lost a fantasy wide receiver one. And on average, those quarterbacks have lost two and a half fantasy points per game. And that's...

It sounds like not a big deal, but if he loses two and a half fantasy points per game, that puts him at like quarterback 8 to 10. I mean, that is not okay drafting a quarterback that's going to finish still top 10, but not as a separator and a difference maker at the position when you're giving up a third or fourth round draft pick. And there's been great quarterbacks. Peyton Manning was one of those seven. You know, he lost six points off of his.

Fantasy finish? Well, his week to week. Week to week performance. And it's not just Tyreek Hill. They are putting three new wide receivers in place. You know, they lost three of their four. No more to Marcus Robinson. No more to Marcus Robinson or Brian Byron Pringle and Tyree Kill. So now you've got three new guys coming in. So once you pop, you can't stop.

Well, you can when the can is empty and he's gone. So that's usually when we stop eating our Pringles is when we run out. I call sleeve in it, but yeah. Right, you know, full sleeve. So, you know, this is the situation. I think Patrick Mahomes is probably the best quarterback in the league. If I were to be starting a franchise, he would be the one I would take with the first pick.

If you, you know, you got to do it all over as a GM right now, drafting every NFL player. But for fantasy, where he's going in the third or fourth round, he is not going to pay off on that value. Since his 50 touchdown season in 2018, his yards per attempt have gone from 8.8 to 8.3 to 8.1 to 7.4, and now he loses Tyree Kill. He's not going to pay off on that value. I need to follow up with a question for you. All right. I wanted to look last year.

And last year, Patrick Mahomes went at 209 on average. Or I'm sorry. Yeah, 209 on average. And then Josh Allen went at 311 last year. And they flipped this year. Now Josh Allen is going at 206. Mahomes is going at 305. Are you willing to wrap Josh Allen into that same argument is my question? Because...

this year, Allen's going higher than Mahomes went last year as the first quarterback, and we even saw it in the mock draft episode we just did on Tuesday. He went high. And look, I know that Alan has been very, very good, but it almost feels like when you look at those numbers and you see that they flip-flop spots year to year, that is the game you're playing. Yeah, I mean, I would not draft Josh Allen where he's going. However...

I would not call him a bust pick because when you look at the quarterbacks who have a chance to lap the field, to separate and say, I'm scoring three or four more points than second place. Josh Allen is one of the few. I don't think Mahomes, this version, 2022 Tyreek Hillis, Patrick Mahomes, is going to be the one that throws another 50 touchdowns.

Mike, why don't you share your bus pick with us? All right. I'm looking forward to listening to this. We have not really talked extensively about this player, I don't feel like, so I want to hear these details. Yeah, and this one just stood out to me of my ranking compared to where this player is going in average drafts. And it is A.J. Brown, new wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles. Again, he's a...

top tier player. There's a reason the Eagles gave up a first round, a first and a third to get him and they gave him a huge bag of money. He's a good player and he's going to be good for fantasy. But right now, on Underdog, he's being drafted as a top 12 wide receiver. And in Sleeper, he's being drafted as a top 10 wide receiver. Like people love AJ Brown. And I do as well, but I do not like this draft price for him. So let's look.

Look back at what the Philadelphia Eagles did last year. From week eight on, the Eagles averaged under 24 passing attempts in the per game. That was dead last in the league. The wide receivers scored the third fewest points in the league, and they had 11 total receiving touchdowns. Now, that's why you would go out and you would get A.J. Brown. And then you can make the argument. Well, A.J. Brown has never been a volume wide receiver. He's been efficient. And he's yours in Tennessee.

He was the dude, and he just, he would have huge plays. And he would, you know, he'd usually end up, when he was on the field, end up good for fantasy football. But we took a look and at, like, what quarterback numbers have sustained in a real true top 12 wide receiver. And what we found out is that.

Wide receiver ones, their quarterbacks were averaging 264 passing yards per game and completing an average of 66% of their passes. All right. So, and just to illustrate a little further, 90% of wide receiver ones came from an offense that averaged 235 passing yards. Jalen Hertz averaged 210 passing yards per game. So that's a pretty wide disparity between those two numbers. And even if you.

project an uptick, which I do. I project an uptick for Jalen Hertz. He's got A.J. Brown now. Like he has a true number one wide receiving option. But to go from 210 passing yards up to that 235 per game, I just don't see that playing out. And that's like, that's not where I have Hertz going. My projections, I gave Hertz and improvement up from 210 up to 226 yards per game. And those numbers, they just.

They don't lead to a wide receiver one fantasy finish. And that's because AJ Brown is being drafted so high. It's an overdraft. He'll have good spike weeks and everything. But what you are giving up and your opportunity cost is just it doesn't make sense to me. And it sucks. Like calling a bus pick is it as a fantasy football analyst is not really a fun thing to do because we don't want.

We don't want to crap on these players. AJ Brown's fantastic. But for our game, I think people are overdrafting. Let me amplify your point with two things, Mike. One, over the back half of the year, that 210 number that you moved him up from, that was 178 over the back half of the year. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Now, you know, the other thing I'll mention is that they changed play callers halfway through the year.

from their head coach, they went to Shane Steichen, and he has just recently been endorsed as the play caller again for the new season. So that doesn't mean, like it is a chicken or egg thing to an extent of, hey, how do you, you know, how do you get to those numbers without a wide receiver one? And then the wide receiver one is how you get to those numbers. So that is part of it, but going from, you know, run heavy 178 a game to 230 plus, that is an even bigger leap.

I do think they'll meet in the middle with this offense. We like Miles Sanders. We like Jalen Hertz being able to run the football. But yeah, it's going to be a little bit of a gamble with the jersey change for A.J. Brown in Philadelphia. And on top of all the things like of all the studies, when wide receivers change teams, you know, they generally have a dip in their production. The ADP shocks me. The ADP is crazy. Yeah, he could. I am in.

on AJ Brown, except not really at all. Apparently not. Because I think he's going to be fine. Like I statted him out. I'm like, yeah, I looked. I think the volume is there. He's going to be a good wide receiver. And then when I see where he gets drafted, I'm like, how is that a possible outcome? Like, I completely agree with this. He is being way overdrafted. And.

I love Jalen Hertz. Like I, I, I'm, you know, poster on the wall levels. Guilty as charged. You remember when Lamar Jackson just broke fantasy football in 2019? Yep. And had, it was just so far and away the number one fantasy asset in fantasy football. I'm not saying Jalen Hertz could or would do that this year. But in that situation.

He did not have a top 40 wide receiver, and he did not have a top three tight end either. Mark Andrews was the tight end for that year. So there's mobile. So you can break fantasy football and break somebody's fantasy team when they draft the options for them. Exactly. So, yeah, A.J. Brown being drafted that high is too rich for my blood. And I will say, like, I know nobody wants to say a negative thing about A.J. Brown, and I get it because we know that he has the ability, but man, he disappeared a lot last year.

And you did have a quarterback that is a pretty, at least accurate quarterback. And you still had this just oddities of, like the year before, he was very consistent. But like last year, I don't know if it was the injuries. I don't know if it was just the, you know, you can talk about Derek Henry and unlocking the offense. Derek Henry's not in Philly either for the record. But I do think it's crazy how inefficient he was. It might be good for AJ.

It might be good for AJ Brown to have a somewhat inaccurate quarterback because when I watch AJ Brown, those impossible catches, man, he gets him every time. But you put that ball on his hands, he drops it. Oh, I see. I like this narrative. Yeah. Come on, Jalen. Just give him a barely a chance to catch it and he'll come down with it. Do not put a little wobble. Yeah, do not give him a real smooth ball. A little wobble. A little wobble. Quick break and then we're back with their value picks.