The 2026 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/26

The biggest thing is the completion percentage. And they worked on his intermediate throws last year, Ben Johnson did. There's a great chart put out by Ryan Heath of fantasy points that looks at, I mean, literally like 100 pieces of data in terms of what things correlate in terms of quarterback statistics with the following season's fantasy points per game. Completion percentage is one of the lowest.

correlations to fantasy points per game for that quarterback the next year. Thanks, Josh Allen. It's way down the list. You know, things like avoided sacks is three times as valuable in correlation to fantasy points per game for that next season, then completion percentage. What have the bears committed themselves to putting Caleb Williams in the position where he is not being sacked like he was as a rookie, which almost broke the records or broke the record?

Last year, they repaired this offensive line. Pressure to sack ratio. That's another high correlation. The things that they have fixed on this offense, they jumped from 28th in points per game to ninth in points per game last year. This is the scoring environment you want for fantasy. That's one year of Ben Johnson. One year of Ben Johnson. And so I think you see a huge step forward. You can go look at first round quarterbacks who finish top 10 in year two and then say, hey, how was year three for those guys?

Well, 60% of them were up over that 20 fantasy points per game. You've got a long history of these guys that have made the jump. It's just something where I'm looking at this team. And if you wipe out a little bit of just like the bears can't pass, they'll never get 4,000 yards. Look, I think they figure it out this year. I think that, you know, both of us believe, or maybe all of us believe that the bears are making a step forward on the offense. What's wild is you're going to have two of the best offenses in football in the same division with Detroit.

and the Bears, but you've got weapons, offensive line, play caller, pass catching running back, rushing upside for Caleb Williams. He's dropped 15 pounds. I am just... I'm so excited about Caleb this year, and Bears fans can finally believe me when I say, I've never been against you. I've just been subject to the realities of the NFL, and sometimes that looks like you don't like a team or a player.

We are water. We are subject to what's changing. Yeah, Caleb losing 15 pounds is such a big deal to me because there's a player that you want to know takes it serious. You know, he does, that's like one of the knocks is maybe he's not as focused as you'd want your quarterback one to be, but he is. Like Kyler Murray? Yeah, I mean, if Kyler Murray could have taken one of those offseason is like, I put on two inches. That would have been so cool.

You know, they each have their roles to play. But Caleb, uh, drop 15 pounds. He's taking it serious. We love the Bears offense and all of those things go back to Caleb. I will say this. My counter argument and I think it's decently compelling. The case against Caleb Williams, I don't know, Andy, if you have seen this picture. I don't think the irony is where you're seating. Oh, you're where I'm seated. I feel very. The picture is.

Oh, man. You know what that is? It's all three screens there. That's Zoom. I feel. But I don't think the picture is wild. Here's the truth. Oh! What about now? What about now, Andy? I don't have. It's too sultry. If you ever have them wearing these uniforms where they have those light colored, like the light colored pants and the dark socks, these guys always look a little different. Look, this is the first time I'm saying it this year. No butterfly stretch.

No butterfly stretch. Not those pants. Jason looks like he's actually kind of cringing. Well, I'm like, this is your bit. I'm in the fire. I didn't realize. And you are his bit. All right, Mike. The next my guy. The last one. One more each. All right. It's, uh, this is my Alec Pierce because this was a player that I statted out the UDK. I was going through the, all the, uh, doing the projections, you know, looking at the, the top level and then filtering things down of how I think it's going to shake out for that team.

A player really popped. Like a, when I went and saw where his rank he was, I went, oh, that's spicy. And it didn't work out for you with Alec Pierce of the injury stuff, but the news just kept getting. I wanted Alec Pierce to be the guy. It just kept getting better and better. And here we are. Christian Watson. Christian Watson, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. We are entering year five. They just gave him a.

fresh set of cash with a four-year extension. The problem for Christian Watson has never, ever been talent on the field. Wide receivers since the year 2000 to average 17 or more yards per reception and catch 20 touchdowns through their first four years. Deshawn Jackson, Mike Wallace, Christian Watson. He can hit the big play absolutely. The problem has been volume.

for Christian Watson. And, yeah, yeah. I was going to say, if there's ever a player you've needed hamstring insurance on the show. Absolutely. That one, I, that's your biggest risk. Ken Walker, I'll fight people on the health argument. Christian Watson, they're winning. Yeah, if you want to come out with the health argument, I'll say, yeah, you're probably right. But truly, volume also was an issue because the Green Bay Packers.

were rotating all of their guys. You had Romeo Dobbs, who was kind of their de facto possession number one wide receiver. Dantavian Wix would come in and just, he would rotate players off the field because Wix is a capable pass catcher. Those guys are gone. It is now consolidated. It's Christian Watson and Matthew Golden as the two starters, and then Jaden reads the slot player. But last year, recovering from yet another injury from an ACL tear, but from week 11 on.

He was the wide receiver 11 in fantasy football. He was giving you huge, huge spike weeks. During that time, the per route metrics were elite. Second in yards per route run behind only Luther Burton. He was tied with JSN for third in targets per route run. And then a metric that we know is fairly predictive for next year. Over that time period, he was first in, this one's a mouthful, but first in the NFL.

in first downs per route run. They're going to him. They're going to him early. When you look at the nine my guys, and I know a couple of haven't been revealed yet, I think Christian Watson has the potential to impact fantasy teams in the most significant way of almost all the names because of where you're drafting him and what he represents for your team. Which is a right now on Sleeper, a late round sixth round pick. Late round six round pick. Late round six round pick on ESPN.

I don't know what clown show business is going on over there because he's in the ninth round. Maybe just weird mock drafts. But late sixth round for a player who can do what I think Watson's going to do this year. It's exciting. It's absolutely outrageous. Why don't we like Jordan Love? Because you can make this exact same argument for liking Matthew Golden, the consolidation. You can make it for Tucker Kraft, the consolidation. We like.

Jaden Reed, like whether his role, like for Jordan Love, he's great. Even if Jayden Reed's not reliable week to week. So you got four names that are pretty interesting. And I feel like maybe Jordan Love's been just like, I haven't heard. Thank you for bringing up Jordan Love. Oh, that's why we're team. The reason why people wouldn't love Jordan Rates because the Packers were 28th and pass rate last year. Yeah. However, Jordan Love was efficient among 38 qualifying running or quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks.

First in EPA with a clean pocket. Sixth in passerating. Seventh in completion percentage over expectation. And fourth in pressure to sack ratio. Andy, some of the stuff you were talking about for Caleb. And this year, there's talk of stuff being a little bit different. More balanced. They're playing under center more with more play action than we have seen the Green Bay Packers in recent history. Watson's going to play the Z receiver role. So he's going to move. He's going to be in motion. The stuff that we love.

for fantasy football he's being you can draft him easily as your wide receiver three and i think before the end of the year he's your wide receiver two maybe even a wide receiver one type of a player they changed this is interesting this is per josh norris look uh christian watson's out routes from 2022 to 24 just 7.7 where he's breaking horizontally which that's we need those routes we can't have you just being

the sacrificial X running a fly route. As long as he doesn't break horizontally or vertically, I'd be happy. But so he went from 7.7 to 35% last year. They were using him truly in a different fashion and with the consolidation, with what I think is going on with Josh Jacobs, not just the suspension stuff, with the efficiency of, I think that LaFleur is seeing that I got to start trusting Jordan Lovemore and changing this offense.

Christian Watson going into six is an absolute smash pick for me. If you had ever removed him from the board the last six months, I think he would have been somebody strongly considered for a my guy on my time. I just, I totally believe in the value. I think he's the perfect target for fantasy because the talent is there, but the fatigue is high. Yeah, the injury history is why he's low. I mean, if he had played a full season last year or even the year prior, or ever, he drafted higher.

If you'd ever played a season. Yeah. I mean, and that is genuinely still the worry. Like when I think about drafting Christian Watson, I'm still a little gun shy because of like the injury history. He's just never been able to stay healthy. But if you're getting him at like the 6-7 turn, that upside. Absolutely. The injury risk is baked in there. I walked into that one. He grew up. All right. Well, I'm going to take a guy who was injured last year. O'Marion Hampton.

I am in love with Omari and Hampton. All offseason, this has been the guy that I haven't really pivoted from. Everything is set up for him to dominate. I loved him coming out of college. I think he is a phenomenal three-down fantasy football running back. What he does is perfect for fantasy football. He is the goal line back. He had 80% of the goal line carries last year, which would have been fourth in the NFL. He is a pass-catching running back with a past-catching past...

Running back checkdown quarterback. I mean, remember Austin Echler with Justin Herbert? In his, you know, in this short rookie season that Hampton had, he averaged 19 routes per game, 3.6 receptions per game. And he started out as that dude. The first five weeks before the injury, he led all running backs and avoided tackles per carry. Now the change of everything around him is positive, positive, positive. I know that they're...

new free agent center got injured. That does stink, but their offensive line is still significantly better. I mean, they have two superstar tackles and Joe Alt, Rishon Slater. They didn't have either of them last year. They're both back now. They're both on the field and they're going to dominate and mow these guys down. They brought Alec Ingold in the fullback. Where did he come from? Oh, he came from Mike McDaniel's team that runs this outside zone to great success.

with a fullback, getting guys out, pulling, and breaking away opportunities for Devon A. Chan. Devon A. Chan was the second highest yards per route run on those outside zone schemes. You know who was third? O'Marian Hampton. So you've got this team that I think is going to win a ton of games. They've got a good defense. They're projected to win a lot of games. You have an offensive line that is better. You have proof from his rookie season of how good he was. You have an offensive mastermind.

joining the fray who gets his guys the ball. Yeah, I know. He says, oh, we're going to go hot hand. They're going to go hot handton is what they're going to do. Okay. Because he's going to get this guy out of. Get it. Get it out of you. Yeah. I got it. I got it in. That was a swish. Heck yeah. I had to swipe pages. I couldn't get to the boo. Woo. Yeah. Hot Hampton. He's going to get the rock.

Repeating it is always helpful. Hot Hampton. I'll repeat it all season long because he's going to be running with the Hot Hampton. The thing is, is when you draft a running back in the first round, year two, it pretty much always crushes in fantasy football. Twelve of the 15 players in that situation, they average 18 or more opportunities per game. Those players average average.

10.3 touchdowns per game. I just think everything is set up. He's on a great offense. He is fairly alone. I don't worry about Keaton Mitchell being, you know, the goal line back or... What about Silky Smooth? The regular... Vidal Sassoon. Vidal Sassoon is going to be a backup. He's going to touch the ball enough. He's going to catch the ball enough. He's going to be around the goal line enough. And when I look at year two run, I would definitely take him over Gentie. The situation is so much better for Hampton.

I don't see how he failed. I thought you said your two guys are awesome. Yeah, I mean, that's what I'm saying. Gentie is awesome, and I would take Hampton over him. That's why he's a my guy. All right. I didn't realize I had timed this up so poorly. Same team. Ladd McConkey. Ladd McConkey. Bears and Chargers, baby. I guess so. I didn't even think about it when we have those two guys up on the board. Two great offenses. For me, Ladd McConkey has been the name that has been the most locked on the board for the most amount of time.