Fantasy Football - NFC North Breakdown + Poking the Bears - Podcast for 7/17

Points per game 28, yards per game 32nd. Caleb Williams rookie season, not a fantasy gold mine. Nope. Ben Johnson's your new head coach. Matt Eber flew the coop. I guess he was forced out. He flew the coop like one of those, the mama birds that's like, you're not going to make it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So this is a Ben Johnson story. Can he get Caleb Williams playing the way he needs to play? Offensive line is massively changed. They've reworked at all. The best part. The best part of the offseason was they've done so many things right. From 24th to 4th in PFF ranking. It's beautiful. Joe Tooney, welcome to town. They invest in Colston Loveland, Luther Burden. And they've got, you know, they have.

a lot of potential in the wide receiver room. Man, it's so hype. It's so, I know. I want them to be good, so bad. If Caleb Williams comes out this year and is who they drafted him to be, that is so good for the NFL. That's so much fun for fantasy. There's, yeah, there are so many players in this team that it could be, that will be just fantasy gold. So let me, let's do this experiment. All right. I think I have a good game to play with Chicago. Their win total is 8.5. I'm going to give them 10 wins. If they win 10 games, okay? If they win 10 games, I'm going to read their players and their draft position, and you tell me if you'll be happy. If they win 10 games, absolutely. DeAndre Swift, late 7th round pick. If they win 10 games, is that a steal? Yes. Okay. They win team games. DJ Moore, wide receiver 20 off the board at 406. Is that a good pick? Yes. Yeah.

Okay, Roma Dune's a seventh round pick. Middle of the seventh wide receiver 36. Is that a good pick? Yeah, maybe. Okay, Colson Loveland, 11th round, tight in 16 off the board. Is that a good pick? If they win 10 games. Probably, yes. And then last one, Caleb Williams, late 9th, QB 14 off the board. They win 10 games as he outperforming that. Yeah, I think so. Yeah. Now, can you do me a favor and read that thing you said about their win total? Let's do it if they win 14 games, guys. No, I don't think they win 10 games. Okay. I came into this offseason. I've shared this story once earlier in the off season. By the way, winning 10 is just one and a half over their Vegas line, just for the record. Al back there going, this is silly. They got no chance. We know how you feel about the Bears. What's your win total for the Bears? Seven. Oh, okay. Generous. Yeah. What's your win total for the Lions? Seven.

12. Okay. Sorry. We can't talk to Owl about this division. You know, when I finished my first run through of the UDK statting, very bullish on Caleb Williams, very bullish on DJ Moore, the upgraded offensive line and Loveland, Loveland was super high. And I went back and I watched every single throw of Caleb Williams last year. and i would recommend not doing that yeah and and and i some of them some of them are nice oh he has he definitely had the flashes of brilliance the flashes where you go wow that arm that angle that you know that you know keel williams every piece of heart well a good summary of what caleb williams was capable of doing last year was three or four plays in a row to come down the field to go for a game winning field goal and then make a mistake before you get quite close enough

That's kind of how it felt. Yeah, but when he threw from a clean pocket to a normal wide receiver just breaking on a slant and was inaccurate so much, I was just like, obviously he could fix that, right? There are quarterback in a pocket where you're getting sacked all the time. Absolutely. And that is the hope, that is my rooting interest. I'm still, in the mock draft we just did, I took DJ more because the path is so clear for it to be. really good for the Bears. I am personally, if I have to make a bet, if I've got to put a chip on, is Caleb, is Caleb Williams really good? You know, I'm doing the same thing with JJ McCarthy. I don't think so. I think Caleb Williams goes more the route of Trevor Lawrence, where he is capable. He'll get another big money contract, but I don't think he's going to develop into, you know.

When you had Trevor Lawrence drafted, he was supposed to be the next greatest since Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck was supposed to be the next greatest as paid man. Andrew Luck was. He was that deal. Yeah, he was great. Trevor Lawrence wasn't. Well, Caleb Williams is one of those, like, generational. He's supposed to be that good. I don't think he's going to be. 68 sacks last year, 41 throwaways, which was number one in the league. 44th out of 47 and catchable target rate for Caleb Williams. It really will. Their season will go with Caleb this year with the fact that they built. They've built some of that structure I talked about around McCarthy. They built some of that structure here in Chicago finally. They're not just leaning on Caleb. I think it started as Caleb come save the franchise. And we're not going to do anything right around you. Now it's Caleb, we realize we're going to.

We're going to ruin you. It's Ben Johnson come and save Caleb. Yeah, it's save Caleb. And the only really big debate, look, I think we all think D.J. Moore is a good player. So if things are going well for them, he'll be good. Roma Dunez. I think we still believe in Roma Dunezay to be a good player. No more Keenan Allen targets available. DeAndre Swift is the bigger question where, like, he looks like he could be of value in the seventh round. But I don't know if any of us necessarily believe he's the greatest running back in football. So if you look at potential sleeper value on this team, you have to look at someone like Roshan Johnson. Yeah.

back behind DeAndre Swift where it's like, hey, I can see a world where DeAndre Swift, I call him, I think he's a dumb runner. I think he's a dumb runner. I think he has benefited from the Philadelphia offensive line, but I don't think he has a great feel for the defense on a play-to-play basis. And now he could benefit from this offensive line, but at the same time, if Ben Johnson comes in and sets up, this is how you run the offense, is how you do a run play. And this guy is not running where he's supposed to run. I don't think he's going to hesitate to putting other players in there. So to me, there is a risk factor with Swift in that I think Roshan is okay. I think he's a pretty good player. The question for Swift will be how many receptions does he get? Because like the last time we had Swift with Ben Johnson, the rushing attempts were down. But the fantasy points were still good because for all of his inefficiency, Swift is still a top tier athlete. And the running back room is tough because you have Roshan who,

I think Roshan is still a projection of like of you have to say well I think Roshan's good if you we should know at this point if Roshan Johnson is a good player but we we don't and then they took Kyle Monong guy in the in the seventh round and there look there are people on draft order that are excited for for him but he was a seventh round pick I know he back to back 1,200 rushing yards at Ruckers look that's The production profile is there. Seventh round, Rutgers running back? Yeah. This is reminding me. This is reminding me of Kamani Vidal Sassoon. Well, or Pacheco. But that's what the, the outlier is not the, yeah, that's not that's not. I'm saying that, yeah, generally speaking, betting against the seventh rounder for Rocheon, who even though. Who is the Tampa Bay guy that everyone got all hyped in draft Twitter? Which, at which point? Sean Tucker? No, no, no, no, no.

Kishon Vaughn? Oh, yeah. But he was a second round pick, wasn't he? Third. Key Sean Vaughn? Yeah, Vaughn was. No. Third. Oh, he was. He was a third round pick. Yeah. So there was draft cap. He was. Oh, yeah. Oh, gosh. Well, he played like a seventh round pick. Um, well. That he did. So, so, look. But, but point being is, oh my gosh, I got to figure out this division is. I think at the end of a draft, it's worth taking one of those. one of the other running backs for Chicago, just does Ben Johnson try his best to duplicate Detroit? Or does he have something completely brand new? Overall, I will say for the Chicago Bears is there's not everyone's going to land. Not everyone will hit for this team. And there are so many exciting names. But the reality is, not all of them can hit. Guys, this is not fair. I don't even know. This division is not fair. Not because.

Because it will be an insult to somebody to put them in the bottom two spot. Absolutely. You're going to insult somebody. And it could go to, it could go to anybody. Here, real quick to get back to Caleb Williams, what I was seeing from a clean pocket. He was 33rd in clean pocket. completion percentage out of like 600 though right no out of 36 so crap that's that's what i was seeing that makes me that's why i'll house them with negative four wins this year yeah uh in all of those negative four go to the packers somehow they're they're added to that total oh my gosh all right i've got my division i mean this is this is brutal this is brutal i do not oh my gosh i don't like it you want me to go first yeah

I have it written down, but man, I don't want to say it out loud. I know, I know. This one is, I hope we have three completely different answers here. Go ahead. I'm going Vikings winning the division. Okay. Follow by the lions and the Packers and the Bears. Oh my. I don't have that. I don't either. I got Green Bay winning the division. So do I. I'm going to take Green Bay. Wow, none of us have the Lions winning. I'm going to take Detroit in second place. That's where I'm going. I'm going to take. Oh, you put in the Bears? I have Minnesota third.

and Chicago 4th. I want to give hope to Chicago fans. And I do think you have hope, but that hope, what is it when hope takes a while? It floats. It floats. Hope, uh, uh, uh, hope, uh, uh, hope. Is it a hope prolonged? Like we, whatever makes the love stronger in future success, that's the kind of hope. Pessimistic hope. Ah, uh, uh, all right. Yeah, but also, so Mike and I have the same. We do. Hope deferred makes the heart sick. No, that's not the one. That works. That might have been what I was thinking of, but that's not going to help the Bears fans. It was so wild last year that you had three playoff teams from this division. It could happen again. I'm putting the Vikings in third, but I think the Vikings are a 10 plus win team. I think they are. They're the one team that I'm like.

because of their one score game record and the quarterback change, it's like, okay, maybe something goes sideways. And look, injuries happen and all of a sudden divisions don't finish the way you think they will. Any of these guys lose the quarterback. Yeah. You're in big trouble. But man, I'm sorry to whoever I offended in that order. I'm not. But at least Mike and I can be insulted together. So you went Minnesota, Jason? I did. So none of us gave Detroit the division. Look at us trying to be. This is all your fault. because you wanted us to not be chalky chalk boys. No, I think the Lions, like, I have Green Bay winning the Division, so they're in. I think the Lions are in the playoffs. Also, Al is now, he's in love with me and you. I mean, Al has got to be thrilled back there. I am shocked and very happy. I love, I, I honestly, I love Green Bay. I love Detroit and I love Minnesota. Agreed. And they can't, they all tie? And if I, if I could, if I could have a magic wand and make one.

team out there great this year, I would choose the Bears. I mean, I think that would be... If Chicago's in the NFC South, where do they finish? That'll be a question. Yeah. Saints, they're better than the Saints. They're better than the Saints. Right. Better in the Panthers. And then you've got Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and that's a debate. But at least... I'll put the Bears at least in the second. I know. Sorry, sorry Chicago. Yeah. It's rough. Tampa. AFC South. Chicago, Atlanta. NFC Sal. AMC Sal just got bodied. All right. That'll do it. Back with another episode Saturday. Don't miss it. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.