Fantasy Football - NFC North Breakdown + Poking the Bears - Podcast for 7/17

Like I want to like go, hey, come on, obviously. But when you really think about what it looked like last year, this was a 15 and 2 team that scored 33.7 points per game. Gibbs didn't finish inside the top 10 at the position on any week until week 7. He only did it four times when Montgomery was healthy, four times. Well, I was going to bring that up. So he was 29.3 fantasy points per game when Montgomery was there, it was 16.9 fantasy points per game to Montgomery's 15.2 fantasy points per game. So it was like. They weren't that different when Monty was healthy. It's just managing the reality in Detroit. Now, Gibbs, could Gibbs finish number one overall at the position? Yes. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Every time he touches the football, I start to tingle. But I don't think he could, I don't think he could finish number one without a Montgomery injury. I do. I do think that that could happen, but your odds are not very high. Yeah, I think with the efficiency, it's possible. But.

you'd have to have a philosophical change in what you're doing around the goal line a little bit. And, you know, it's possible with the Ben Johnson change that that happens. But Amundra St. Brown continues to be a machine in this offense. I feel like there's not a ton to talk about with him. No, it doesn't seem that way. He just belongs in the first round and the late part of the first round. He's really safe. Can I guess here's a question. Can he finishes the wide receiver one? No. No. No. Jameson Williams, though, in the sixth round, I love that value, if you didn't know. I like that value. And as long as he stays that far away from the front of the draft, I will continue to like that value. Sam Leporta finished a lot stronger than he started last year. Don't want him to be ignored. No, I'm slowly moving more in more on the idea of drafting Lepa. It was a really, really strong finish. And so, again, if you can't run the way you want to run,

You got to utilize some of that passing game. That's also the case for golf having more success potentially or at least putting up the big yardage numbers. Success-wise, who knows if he throws more picks or things like that. But Green Bay on the road, tough one to start, then at home against Chicago, then in Baltimore and then at home against Cleveland. So that'll be fun to see what this team can do to start the year. We're going to take a break and come back with, well, a lot more question marks. All right, boys. It's time to talk about the Minnesota Vikings who went.

14 and 3 last year. They were not supposed to be good. Yeah, and that line, that narrative, that thought process around Minnesota is so perfectly applicable to how we view this year and projecting them. This idea of what is supposed to happen when you have a young quarterback or an unproven quarterback or a quarterback we perceived as bad. Yeah, he was proven. Sam Darnold was a proven quarterback. And yet 14 and 3 was Sam Darnold. I mean, this was. Like the idea of Sam Darnold having this kind of success was it was almost out of the question. It was wild. They had the largest discrepancy in their Vegas line to what they did of any team in the last 10 years. So that was their season. They were projected to win six and a half games. They won 14 games. They went nine and one and one score games. This year is disrespectful. And this year it's at eight and a half. And I get it.

I really do. It's a brutal division. They have the fifth hardest strength of schedule. And they've got a, essentially, for all intents and purposes, a rookie quarterback that is not played yet. Yeah. In order to, in order to project the Vikings with accuracy, you have to first be correct on whether McCarthy is it or not. Or, you know, how fast he can step into being an NFL franchise quarterback Right now, year one. Or. Or you have a different discussion. That that discussion is that maybe being it doesn't even matter to Kevin O'Connell. Maybe just playing quarterback matters to Kevin O'Connell. Because when you look at...

You know, Sam Darnel was the quarterback eight with Kevin O'Connell. When Nick Mullins was the quarterback, he was a top 12 quarterback in three or four starts. When Josh Dobbs was his quarterback, he was a top 12 quarterback in two of his five games. When Kirk Cousins was the quarterback, he was the quarterback four and quarterback seven. Maybe Kevin O'Connell is just that good. And in addition to Kevin O'Connell setting whoever the quarterback is up for success, I believe J.J. McCarthy is it. I do, too. I think he is really, really good. I think he's better than Sam Darnold. I did laugh at the throwing the ball a few times to T.J. Hawkinson against no defense with no pads on clip that was surfacing. Oh, I didn't get to see him. It must have been fire. Let me explain it to you. Hold on. He is going to be hard for you to believe. J.J. McCarthy, right? They draft him to play quarterback. Quarterback. Yeah. Get this. He throws the football. Okay. I'm listening. His receiver down the field. Hawkinson? He caught it.

Hawkinson. Hawkinson caught it. Hawkinson caught. No, no, I didn't see any drops. They were like three or four times in a row where he threw it. Three or four times in a row? Where he threw it to the guy that looks like a Viking. Yeah. That's edited. It might be CGI. It might be CGA. No, I love the offseason. It's great. But look, I am, this is my dynasty quarterback boys. J.J. McCarthy. I'd. I don't know if I like that. All three of us are so ill-changing McCarty. Because I am very in. I think he is going to be a great starting quarterback. And I- Check that video out, man. You're really going to believe it. And Kevin O'Connell has, he just gives us, guys like, is Nick Mullins good? No. Do you know if you need me to answer? No. If you need me to be the answer is no. No, he's not. And that's why I said maybe being it. Yeah. How about you just be.

Okay. Okay for Kevin O'Connell is good for this offense and good enough for this offense. This is a defense that's going to be very good. A head coach is going to put him into the position of being in those close games. And look, McCarthy's going to have to go out and do it and execute the offense. I would say if you give him somebody like Justin Jefferson, it'll help. It's going to help that process out. And he's got, you know, they've got a running game that I think you can trust in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. They have Jordan Addison that will be returning.

and is an explosive playmaker. Hawkinson healthy, right, going into this season. So there's a lot to like. Their defense is very good. I think this is a very well-built team. And, you know, for fantasy purposes, it's TBD on whether you really want the fantasy games of McCarthy. You know, very similar to Darnoldy finished as the quarterback eight, but it wasn't always, you know, easy. you know, week in, week out starts that you wanted. And McCarthy, we're not sure how much he's going to run. He had a season in college where I think he had four in a rushing yard. So he's got some legs that he can use, but I doubt that that's what they want to do. So it's kind of TBD, but I don't worry about him when it comes to the past catchers. I don't look at Hawkinson and Addison and obviously not Justin Jefferson and say, I've got to, I've got to demote these guys, lower them in my ranking. They were 14 and 3 with the ninth with a,

you know, there were 9 points per game. So it wasn't like they were, like Darnell was winning ball games, but it wasn't like they were a top five offense or something like that. So they can win execution-wise. And while McCarthy may, he may not be like give us enough of the mobility that we want for fantasy football through three seasons, Kevin O'Connell's team ranks and pass rate over expectation, sixth, sixth, and third. And in that list, please go back to the quarterback list. They still, the game plan didn't change. They didn't say, you know, like, oh, let's manage Darnold. Yeah, like in the Green Bay Packers last year they lost love and it's Willis in there. And they're like, we're not throwing the ball ever. Like the Vikings changed nothing about their game plan. And if you want to talk about the offensive line like Jason did with Detroit, they were the 18th ranked offensive line to end the 2024 season. They're going into the 2025 season ranked 7th.

They added an offensive alignment in the first round and Donovan Jackson. They added guards. They got the indie guards. Ryan Kelly also center in Indianapolis. It's looking like all the structures there for McCarthy to succeed. He's got to go out and do it. And obviously winning 14 games is a, that's a tall task. But eight and a half is where they have them right now. And it's a tough division. Like I said, every team in this division has a brutal strength of schedule in part because they play one another. So let's talk about two other pieces of the Vikings real quick. The backfield and how you think the split will go with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason and the upside there. And then let's talk about T.J. Hawkinson being drafted in the fifth round. You know, what kind of value or upside does he represent? Let's start with the running backs, though, because Mike, you've been vocal about Jordan Mason and his potential.

I think Aaron Jones in the late 6th is still a good pick. Are both those guys on the table then? We mentioned it briefly in the mock draft episode from Tuesday. Aaron Jones is a, he is a difficult evaluation for me because generally speaking, he's the running back 23 on a high-powered offense. Yes, that's an archetype that I would want, but he's 30 and a half years old. He's coming off of a year. where he had the most opportunities in his entire career, and that includes 255 carries and 51 receptions. Like, he got used a lot. So you're like, okay, I should be really interested in Aaron Jones. And then, like, they did a, uh, they worked out his money a little bit more. But they were also then very aggressive in going after Jordan Mason right in the free agency period. They trade for him.

from the San Francisco 49ers. They immediately give him money. And Mason was the, Mason was one of the most successful runners in last year. I was going to say, let's just give people a quick reminder of what happened with McCart when CMC went out last year. Jordan Mason was the RB3 in week one on 28 attempts at 5.2 a carry. He was the RB 7 in week two. Another 100-yard game. And then in week four, another 100-yard game. I mean, those four games, 4.9 a carry and averaged, like he would have put up 1,900 rushing yards that year. And remember how the season started for the Vikings with Ty Chandler. They wanted, you're like, Ty Chandler's going to.

You know, get involved. They wanted a split backfield. They gave them 11 opportunities, 10 opportunities, 16 opportunities. Then their by week comes. And then it's, he's playing 4%, 0%, 4%. They were done. What are you saying they wanted a committee with Jones? They wanted that. But then they brought in. Ty Chandler didn't have it. And so now Jordan Mason has it. Right. It was Acres, right? Yeah, they got it. Yeah. So they then right in week seven, they bring Acres back to the team. They trade for him. And yeah, and Ty Chandler is gone. So the. Where it's difficult for Jordan Mason is you want the high value touch of the reception. He's not going to do very much of that. Aaron Jones will have that role, but the coaching staff has talked about Jordan Mason in, like they brought up the short area, the short yardage and goal line. So if Jordan Mason, while he's not going to be electric for, super electric, I should say, for fantasy, because if he's not getting those receptions, but if you're drafting a guy in the 13th round,

who's going to get the goal line opportunities for the Minnesota Vikings, there is excitement there. And would be a prolific back if the injury, if an injury to Aaron Jones happens. So that's worth considering for sure. Mason's basically freeze, a 13th round pick, RB 46. So keep an eye on him at the end of drafts. I know we just took him. I think Jason might have got him at the end of the last mock. Yeah, I think he's a great pick. Like the, I don't think it would be wild if they try in Detroit Lions this. Like, of Jordan Mason is the hammer. And then Aaron Jones is the pass catcher and more of the lightning guy. Hawkinson, are we feeling good with the fifth round price? Or is that about as high as? I don't personally feel good with a fifth round price. He is not a true difference maker at the position. If you're in a league. That's a, okay. If you're in a league. This was a tight in four, tight in two, tight in four.

three seasons before. So I feel like that's a profound statement to say he's not a difference maker. My point is the tight-in four. If he finishes the tight-in four, I don't think he's a difference maker. The way that when you're spending the draft capital on a Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, even George Kittle, I have T.J. Hawkinson as my tight-in four. He is currently ranked there. But whether I'm giving up a fifth round... running back or wide receiver to draft a guy like Hawkinson. If I'm in a league I don't care that much about and I don't want to scour the waivers and I just want to lock in a tight end, I'll probably take Hawk because I'll be like, that's easy. I know I can just leave him there every week. You got him in the seventh in our mock. I love that. If he falls in your draft, grab him. It's just opportunity cost. You took him in the mock right before Sam Laporta. So you're a Hawkinson over. I've got Hawkinson four, Laporta five in my ranking. I would go.

Leporta. Andy, what would you do with those two guys? I should double check where I have... Oh, I have Hawkinson one spot ahead, and I'm going to evaluate my stats. I have Hawkinson. I have Hawkinson. I have Hawkinson. I have Hawkinson, one of the two. Hardin stats. That could be the thing. I go on the stats and I say, oh, no, my heart got it right. Okay. I have Hawkinson projected for 115 targets in the outfits. He was at... He's a PPR guy. He's going to be so helpful for... I think J.J. McCarthy, and he think he's going to be so helpful for fantasy, especially when Addison's not on the field. So capitalizing early season, I don't really want to spend the fifth. And if Leportis on the board, or Najoki's on the board, I probably just wait for the last of that group. So they start this season against Chicago, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. So the Bears in week one for, I mean, that's fun. It's in Chicago, Monday night football, JJ McCarthy's first.

start as a pro is going to be on the road in Chicago on Monday Night Football. Honestly, Chicago, Atlanta, Cincinnati is a pretty strong start to the season. Ironically, those would be the three games currently projected for Jordan Addison to miss. It's funny because I definitely imagine that they'll be underdogs in week one. No way that they're going to be favored going into Chicago. Seems fair. But not by a lot, probably. All right, let's go. Right now, it's one and a half. Okay. Wait, they're favored or? Chicago is favored. Okay, yeah, that makes sense. All right, you guys ready to turn the page here? Yes, sir. I'm really excited to talk about this team. The Green Bay Packers, the Green Bay Packers were 11 and 6 last year. The Green Bay Packers as a reality for the, as an NFL franchise versus your fantasy story, there's a, there's a pretty big separation between those two. And I think that that's what makes them very interesting is they have just been such a good team under Matt LaFleur.

They've outpaced their Vegas win total in five of six years under McClure. But the story for fantasy was like disappointment in Jordan Love, struggling to find any consistency from any sort of wide receiver. The surprise of Tucker Kraft in the middle of the year. The dependency on Josh Jacobs, he ended up being a value. It was just a little bit weird. The predictiveness of the team was not there for fantasy players. but the success of the team was still there. And they had the higher point differential than Minnesota did, but Minnesota had that amazing one-score game record, and Green Bay was 5-5 in one-store games. They have the 10th hardest schedule, which I think is the best of the division. So I'm really excited to talk about them. I think they're going to be right in the mix all year long, eighth and points per game, seventh and yards per game. They had a good defense in terms of those metrics.

But how in the world do we find the fantasy value? Yeah, I'll tell you how you find it. Luck. I mean, genuinely like there will be fantasy value here. Hey, just get lucky. I mean, that feels like what it's going to have to be because let's say there's no injuries here. All right, Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed and Romeo Dobbs and Dontavian Wicks. They're all healthy. They're all playing. Tucker Kraft is healthy. He's playing. They're going to spread the ball around to great success on the NFL field and to... much chagrin for fantasy football. So how you find the success is getting the healthy ones while not everyone stays healthy. That's what it feels like for me, and that is assuming that Jacobs does not continue to score a touchdown every single week on the ground. Well, I think, I think, so let's start with the easy answers, which is Josh Jacobs, great pick, great player, should be very productive. Are we agreed? I am there, yes. Okay. So we, we are in agreement, but I.

Let's see, where is he going? Like the running back? Josh Jacobs? He's the running back of the second. So I'm fine with that, man. That's the bigger question for me of, I need to pull up some names there and see what's going on. He finished last year as the RB5, gets drafted this year as the RB9. He was, he led the NFL in, you know, with 14 rushing touchdowns aside the Tim. We know they turned him and we know he gets it done there. 58% of his yards were after contact. Like he just was really, really good last year. Yes. And they figured out how to use him near the goal line to incredible success. So we'll see if the offensive line can hold up. But that seems like one of the easier answers. Well, it, I don't think it's completely easy from the perspective. Mike's ruined my whole flow. Hey, I wanted, I wanted an easy win. But I think that this is the, no easy wins on this show. No easy wins on this show. I want to hear it.

This is the important thing to talk about of the passing versus the rushing, where last year you're like, yeah, whoa, Josh Jacobs at the end of the year was it was a touchdown every single week. And so back in 2023, 76% of their touchdowns were passing touchdowns. And then that completely swung the other direction. Like 76 is too high. But like Matt LaFleure with Jordan Love, this has been a successful passing offense. and then looking at what happened with Jordan Love. Jordan Love, week one, hurts his ankle at the very end of that Brazil game, misses a few weeks, comes back, still good. He goes, like, he's right back to the QB2, a QB 16, not as great, but QB4, QB11. Then he hurts his groin. And like, you can't, you can't really box score check for this because he kept playing. He got taken out of that game against Jacksonville.

But from then on out, he was passing the ball 10 fewer times per game. So, like, they were still saying, we want Jordan Love out there. He's our better option to win. But they completely shifted to a more run-heavy approach. And my concern for Josh Jacobs at that back of the second is that the pendulum swings back to what LaFleur and Jordan Love have historically been doing. Let's try to find a compromise here, Mike. Okay. Here's a compromise. I love Jordan Love. I think that you're right. I think everything you said is right. I think they would have loved to have used his skills and abilities more last year, but he's limited by injury and you saw the pendulum swing. But I think when you get inside the 20, Josh Jacobs is an above average weapon and wins in that area. Okay. We can be in agreement on that one. So that means that we can swing the pendulum back a little bit in total volume in that past percentage. They were 30th in past percentage. That's insane for that kind of an offense.

But we don't really have to take a lot of value away from Josh Jacobs because I think the dude's going to get into the end zone. I think you can have more balance. I think you can find a middle ground, but I think Jacobs doesn't necessarily need, you know, they don't need to run at the third highest clip in the league for Jacobs to be valuable. Where he's going is just, it's so interesting for how you're building the team. Because like back of the second, my ranking is with Josh Jacobs. I'm a couple spots lower than where he's going in ADP, but that's not a huge.

difference where I'm like upset about where he's going but how are you building your team because after him you know do you want you want Josh Jacobs or do you want to get Lamar on your team or do you want to wait for Kyron or Chase Brown who are later in the third round and take a wide receiver in the second that's where he is a an interesting discussion the truth of the matter is is if you if you're taking Josh Jacobs you you're probably Chase Jefferson I'm on raw. I mean, you're one of the top tier whiteouts. If you took them in the first and you swing all the way back around to the back of the second, you're probably, Jacobs. At least you can get a running back one in that boat. But if it swings a little bit, can Jordan Love be an elite fantasy quarterback? Maybe we don't talk about trying to figure out which wide receiver is going to get it done every week. Maybe we talk more about do they just have enough guys with talent to make Jordan Love?

more viable. We know Jordan Love can be valuable. He was the quarterback five two years ago. I think the odds are stacked against him to truly be really valuable with a good running game and a good defense. If they're, you know, if they do well this year, like they did last year, like they're projected to do this coming year, I don't think they're going to throw the ball as much. Like two years ago, Jordan Love threw the ball 579 times. This last year. Because it wasn't his touchdown. Like I know Josh Jacobs, we felt like was vulturing all the touchdowns, but Jordan Love's touchdown rate went up last year. He went up last year, even though he finished his quarterback 17. Do you know what his attempt pace was before the groin injury? I know what his attempt pace was on the entire season. His touchdown pace was 51 at that point. And his, his attempts would have been over 600 on the season.

So you're saying because of the groin injury, saying that the groin. This is a groin narrative. Yeah, like you can't find this one on groin index.com, I don't think. We don't. Yeah, there's not articles over there, just injuries. However, there is a very clear line drawn in the box score when the attempts plummeted. Was that against Jacksonville? Yes. I, look, I will, I'll weigh in. I think Jordan Love can be a top five quarterback. Okay. Nice. They add, I love Tucker Kraft. I love Jaden Reed. And I think they made a priority. Love or hate Matthew Golden. He will help Jordan Love. Yes, of course. Let's not try to make Matthew Golden something. He's not. But Christian Watson will play for this team. Dantavian Wick still plays. Romeo Dobbs plays for this team. The nice thing for the wide receivers, he's like, well, how are you going to approach them? Risk is baked into every single Green Bay Packer wide receiver. No one wants to. Into the draft price? Yeah, like ADP-Wise.

Jaden Reed, who is that he on field is their best wide receiver. He doesn't always be on the field, but on field he is. And he's the wide receiver, 44. This is, these are also baked into Jordan Love. It's baked into Love's price. Last year he was, he was going too high. We were all nervous. He's a quarterback 12 off the board. I mean, if you want to take a shot, I don't mind it. Now, I also understand liking other players, like Drake May or if you want to roll the, the, the, Jared Gough, or Bo Nix, or. There's so many quarterbacks going behind Jordan Love that I prefer over Jordan Love. And obviously, this is, I mean, we'll find out what happens. Maybe it was the groin, but also they had a new player in Josh Jacobs that just they figured out how to use him more and more and more. And, you know, he did well. So I don't know. But here's what I do know. I know that Jordan Love does not run the ball. He is not going to be a mobile rushing quarterback. And I know that.

If you draft those guys in fantasy and you want a season where he's going to finish top five, which he's done before, you're going to need to throw for, you know, near 4,500 yards and near 35 touchdowns. You know what I just realized? It's just got to go perfect. I just realized that I am not excited to have to predict the order of this division in a little while. Yeah. That's what I just realized. I've got mine written down because I've been ruminating. You're smart because, Louie, I can, I can argue. So many directions. All right, we got to take another break. I know one team that you won't put it one. Oh, yeah, we got to take a break about them next. And we're going to talk about them in a minute. Just trying to rile up the Bears crew to attack you. Oh, it's not hard to do. The Bears are the final team. We get to talk about it. We don't hate the Bears. Yes, I do. Okay. The Packers fan hates the Bears. Al Borland. We'll allow it. Wait, do you even, are they good enough to hate?

I mean, the rivalry still exists. Okay, just making sure. They were 5 and 12 last year. They had a win total of 8.5. They did not deliver on that. By the way, no one will want to hear this. But over the last 10 years, they have surpassed their Vegas win total before the season one time. So 10 years worth of, and we're not talking about big win totals here, boys. We're talking six and a half, seven and a half, five and a half, seven and a half, nine. eight, seven and a half, five and a half, seven and a half and eight and a half. So I guess, bet the under. I guess that's, that's rough, man. After their week six win last year when you, you mentioned they were four and two, they lost ten straight games. They have the seventh hardest schedule this year, according to Warren Sharp. Their win total is projected at eight and a half. So nowhere to go a bit up.