Fantasy Football - NFC North Breakdown + Poking the Bears - Podcast for 7/17

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Thursday, July 17th, Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway, the Fantasy Footballers podcast, back with you. excited to be here diving back into divisional breakdown episodes and some news to talk about discuss with you fine gentlemen i'm glad we talk fantasy football i really am for a living well sure yeah but i guess i just feel like like prior to hitting the record button it was like we were the fantasy lawyers

trying to figure you know there's so many things going on unfortunately every year we certainly aren't at a lawyer lawyers and you know we're the fantasy lawyers yes yes not legal advice but uh every once in a while we have to put on the um amateur you know lean on all my years of watching you know television lawyer tv you know perry mason yeah and uh wow Come on. All right. Andy. I think Andy wasn't watching Perry Mason? I certainly was not. Every incarnation of Barry Mason possible. I like the ancient reference. So, yeah, we were discussing the Quinn-Judkin situation again, which we'll get into briefly in the news and figure out where we're out with that information. But today is mostly about the NFC North, which is a really exciting division to talk about. Also has legal troubles of its own.

yeah you are right yeah we'll get there we'll get there okay yeah it took me a second but you're right yeah welcome to what an incredible this is an uplifting show guys I'm so excited let's just talk about legal problems we are forced to it's not what I want to talk about but we have NFC North breakdown NFL news to talk about the ultimate draft kit is available right now at ultimate draft kit.com you can go check that out dominate your draft this upcoming August, whenever you're drafting, some of you're doing, if you're doing dynasty drafts and that sort of thing, we've got dynasty information in there as well, everything there at ultimate draft kit.com. We'll jump right in because I want to talk laws. News and notes from around the league. So there have been a couple of reports around Quinn's situation, one of them from Mike Florio talking about.

the fact he could be placed on paid leave after he signs his rookie contract. That's what I would expect to happen of the commissioner's exempt list would be the first step. But he's not signed. He's not signed, which most of the second round picks are not. That was kind of the story we talked about on the last episode. Like Jaden Higgins got signed fully guaranteed. Most of them are not signed. I think at that point two of them had been signed. Two total. Do you know who the second one that got signed is? The Cleveland Browns first second round pick. Oh, really? Yeah. Well, so the one thing that I think is worth bringing up is that we were literally here last year with the Browns. Michael Jr. was suspended five games. He was their second round pick. He went to Ohio State. For domestic violence. He didn't go to Ohio State for domestic. Yes. I'm majoring in. Oh, my gosh, Jason.

in DV. Don't say Jason. You were the one that made it sound awful. No, he was. He pled no contest to a reduced charge. He ended up pleading down to disorderly conduct from a domestic violence altercation last summer. So the Browns literally went through this. He ended up on their commissioners exempt list. He ended up missing five games unpaid and then came back in week six. So. But the difference is Judkins is not signed. Judkins is not an NFL employee right now. Which means he can't be put on the commission exempt list, but he also can't practice and participate. I think regardless, either he doesn't sign because there's all sorts of contractual issues now that the Browns are going to have to figure out like, okay, we've got problems with this player. Yeah. So then he misses camp.

because he's not signed, doesn't have a contract, or they sign him, figure it out, and then he misses camp because he's put on the exemplist. Correct. At this point, it seems, and this is speculative, you know, but it's an educated guess that you're going to have Quinn Sean Judkins missing training camp, all of the lead up to probably about week six or seven. And the other report was from Mary Kay Cabot out of Cleveland, saying the Browns are in no rush to sign him. Or get him into camp on time because of what you said, the inevitability of him getting him into camp on time, they don't control that. And they control the contract. And the player coming in, probably facing a six game suspension right away, like I am protecting the team. Yeah, you want it. Everyone's not signing right now because.

They want a fully guaranteed contract for the second round picks. That's what they're trying to do. I'm not giving Judkins a fully guaranteed contract. You also don't know how everything's going to play out, so why not wait? I mean, the team has, quote, stressed to Judkins and his agent that Judkins must make his domestic incident the high priority over football. So they're going to let it play out. It's in their, it's not like they can get him into camp quicker because the legal have to act. And so Judkins, I mean, if this is, if this is not pled down or.

More information comes out. This is not just going to be a suspension. This is going to be a catastrophic impact to his first contract. Yes. And potential to play. For sure. And I think when we talked about the fantasy implications, how many games you miss, we really talked about Jerome Ford and his ability to come forward. We didn't bring up enough about Dylan Samson. Yes. They spent a fourth rounder on another running back, another rookie. You know, he's not. He's not as productive. He's not as big as Judkins. That's why, you know, the excitement was there for Quinch on Judkins. But given the situation where it's pure strong Jerome Ford and now Dylan Samson to start the year to start training camp and all of that, Dylan Samson becomes far more interesting. I would, I mean, is there a chance the Browns to skip the year? It seems like they're trying. Can they opt out? And we, you know, we've, we've updated our stats for the ultimate draft kit. I feel like Dylan Samson, he would be more of a.

take away pier strong's role if like they i don't know he can catch the football i mean drone ford if we're projecting drone ford receptions and it's samson instead of ford right ford being a two down back on one of the worst teams and football does not excite me well no ford catches passes no i'm saying he can but samson can do that oh you sure yes that's how the rolls break out where all of a sudden ford is the first and second down back on a team that scores four touchdown this year I mean, Browns fans hate me right now because we talked about how bad that opening schedule was and all that stuff. And look, I feel for you, Browns fans. Yeah, this stinks. I mean, this is like you've already been the cloud of Voldemort has been upon your franchise for so long. And it was like, hey, we're getting out of it. Like the Voldemort cloud is clearing up. Right. But it doesn't feel like that. But another, yeah, another storm is coming through. So.

That's the update there. And then the NFC North legal situation is just the update that Jordan Addison is due in court, a pretrial hearing before a jury trial on his DUI. And some people think that there'll be a plea deal formalized at the hearing. It does make sense. If he was convicted, he would face a baseline three-game suspension. So Jordan Addison would miss at least three games per the NFL's policy, according to Adam Schaefter. Yeah, I mean, obviously, you're not going to move Justin Jefferson up any higher based on that. But if you're looking at a strong start to the season for a T.J. Hawkinson, you know, that's where the bump goes. And we're talking about that team today. So we'll go through and we'll evaluate, you know, what that means to J.J. McCarthy to start the season. A couple other pieces of news. This one, look, if the lawyers, they handle the contracts too. So let's just include that in our new legal segment. But Terry McLaren.

Still disappointed with contract talks. His most recent quote is, uh-oh. He said without any progressive discussions, it's hard to see me stepping on the field. Camp is supposed to open next Tuesday. He says he's pretty frustrated, not going to lie. What has transpired has been pretty disappointing. I am fully on Terry McLaren's side of this one. This guy has been. He's paid his dues. Yes, he has been the face of your team through. many years of grade A baloney. So, and he deserves to, he's underpaid right now. Jason, you're making a weird stink pace. I'm not completely on his side, depending on what they're squabbling about. If it's years of guaranteed money, then I'm on the team side. I'm not giving Terry McLaurin three guaranteed years of.

of extension. Pay him a lot right now. He deserves to make money. You've got a rookie quarterback under contract. Give him a monster two-year deal. I mean, guaranteed money, guaranteed money is everything. But like Terry McLaurin in the wide receiver department position for what he puts on the field, he is severely underpaid. Think about this. If you want to know his value to the team, if you take Terry McLaren off that roster. What do you think about that quarterback now? What do you think about the team's chances? I think we would change their playoff chances go down. We would change Jaden Daniels in the UDK immediately if he didn't have, if we were like, oh, he's reliant on a Debo Samuel resurgence season. I mean, that's not where you want to be. Yeah, I mean, it's a fun exercise where you go, okay, what would the, you know, the Vegas line?

for wins. Would it change if Terry McLaren, you know, towards ACL today, it might. Whereas, you know, someone like Judkins going down at running bags, like, whatever. But, but anyways, the, the, it's hard to see me stepping on the field. I do, I, players missing a good amount of training camp freaks me out, man. You know who is going to step on the field, though? Garrett Wilson. Yeah, yeah. Well, that way, that one kind of came through late of last show. kind of live reacted. But Garrett Wilson, yeah, you got a four-year extension. He is absolutely paid by the Jets. We didn't really react. Sauce Gardner as well. Yeah, Soss Gardner. We didn't do a ton of reaction. I tweeted out, like my dynasty team, I'm pumped about this. I like my player having an extension like this, the amount of money. And of course, people are responding with, well, now he's on the Jets forever. And you're like, I totally get that. But.

Like the way I'm looking at the Jets situation this year is either it works with Justin Fields and you have you get like a maybe a DJ Moore or a DJ more light year and then we're all happy or he's terrible and now next year the Jets are taking a really high profile quarterback. Yeah, but that's also that might be one of the reasons of people are uncomfortable. Yeah, because we all see that playing out. I'll. The odds are... The devil you know, the devil you don't know. No, it's fine. I mean, it's good that he got paid. He's there alpha for the foreseeable future. It's just that we can see, you know, Fields probably doesn't work as a playoff contending Jets quarterback, and that's what it would take. And then you're on to Rookie Town. And Rookie Town is... It's a scary place to be sometimes. So, like if I told you, you get one year of Justin Fields and you get one year of Caleb Williams' rookie season,

You're kind of like crap. You'd love to have Garrett Wilson have more. But look, I'm with you in concept here. Very productive last year with Aaron Rogers. Things changed when Adams got there. Always been a target monster. It's just, I do not believe that Garrett Wilson, it's going to be very easy for him without a prolific passer to enter Jefferson Range or chasing. I don't think he can do that, which that part of it's a bummer because I think maybe from a skill standpoint, he's close. Yeah, I can agree with that. I don't think we're going to ever get there. That would be, that would take quite a shifting of quarterbacks, which that stuff does happen every once in a while as well. Colston Loveland said he is 100% entering training camp. Oh, man. But declined to say whether or not he'd be on the field when camp began. I do not love the team may. I don't play unless I'm 110%. You know what I mean? Like 100%? You want me to.

You want to play football? Have you ever tried to go from 100 to 10%? It's very difficult. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, we'll see when training camp starts. I wonder if that's a deference to more the team making a decision on his pace of returning. Yeah, that's how it feels to me. But I look, Colston Loveland hasn't gotten a lot of discussion this offseason. Because he's been hurt. Exactly. Like, but it's, it's one of those things that maybe, you know, that could prove a mistake to not really bring him up enough with the draft capital and the, the, the, quarterback going into year two and an offensive coordinator we like. I mean, Colson Lovin was drafted with a purpose. You don't take a guy in the top 12 picks. Correct. Where was he? Was he 11? He was number 10. So, I mean, you know, it would be a foolish thing to ignore that draft capital. And just because we don't get to see him out there right now, he could prove extremely important to this offense and was drafted to be, you know, their La Porta of sorts. Mm-hmm.

So I think that's all the news. Any more legal information coming in, Al? I don't know if you are, are you on the fax machine getting anything through from the clerk or the... Nothing's come through yet, but I'll keep you posted. Goodness. If we never have to talk about legal stuff again, it'll be too soon. Let's jump right in. It's the NFC North. Let's get divisional. Well, this is a very fun one. The NFC North was outrageous last year. A reminder for those that have... you know, just tuned into the show again this year. We're in the middle of the divisional breakdowns. We just did the entire AFC four episodes or I guess we had the mock draft episode in the previous four was the AFC breakdowns. But we're kind of looking at all the offseason changes, head coaches, players, rookies coming in, an overview of the team, how we think they can function. We'll end up making a prediction on how we think this division will go, which I'm looking forward to that because I think

Yeah, there's a number of ways it could go. Yeah, there are a number of different options. This was a division where last year, Detroit, 15 and 2, Minnesota, 14 and 3, Green Bay, 11 and 6. You know, this was the highest. And me, the Bears. Yeah, this was the highest. 5 and 12. 4 and 0, right? Did they? I think they started 4.0. Was that what happened? I don't know about it sounds impossible. Jason, you're saying crazy stuff. I don't think it's a reality I lived in. They won four. They were two and two. They were four and two. Oh, yeah, yeah. Okay. Four and two. Um, right. One, two, three, four and two. All right. Going into the by week. That was what that was what I was doing. They did it. They had a six, sixty two winning percentage as the division. That's the highest in the history of the league. They also had the highest scoring differential as the division in the league history. They were that good. The point differentials are wild.

So, I mean, yeah, the Lions were plus over 100 points. Plus 222, Minnesota plus 100, Green Bay plus 122. They were great. And you'll notice, like I'll give you a spoiler. Okay. We talk about four teams today. All four teams have an extremely hard schedule because they play each other. I mean, that's part of the factor, right? I cracked the code, right? They're all like a top 10 hardest schedule because they got to play like, The Lions got to play Green Bay in Minnesota and Chicago. So that's a really big part of it. And I'm really curious your guys' thoughts as we go through these teams because they're very exciting when you watch them. They're very exciting for fantasy in terms of fantasy football options. High win total projections. It's awesome. So we'll start with the Lions. I mean, what a year. 15 and 2. They have beat their Vegas total in wins three straight years.

It was just a magical season for them. Their projected win total last year was 10.5. You know what it is this year? It's 10.5. Wow. So. After winning 15, you would expect it to be obviously difficult schedule. I don't know if you heard about their schedule. Yeah, a difficult schedule. But 10 and a half feels almost insulting after a 15 win team. I would have expected, like if this situation had happened with the Chiefs, it would be 11.5. So I would have expected it to be a game. You don't have, there's big. questions about Ben Johnson. There are changes, and obviously it was a special year number one in points per game, number two in yards per game. They were seven and two and one score games, right? So if that evens up a little bit. But, you know, it's a tougher schedule. Third hardest in the league, they have to go play in Philadelphia this year, play in Washington, play in Baltimore, play in Cincinnati, play in Los Angeles against the Rams and play in Kansas City. So when you talk about a team that went 15 and 2,

all of those games I just read, which is what seven of them, all those seem like they'll be really challenging games on the road. So their schedule's tough. Yeah, in the first three weeks on the road in Green Bay, then two weeks later on the road in Baltimore, it's going to be tough sledding. But that's how Guns Mahoney wants it. Well, wasn't it last year that they started against Kansas City and got the win? Wasn't that the debut game last year? So it's a question for fantasy managers now of Ben Johnson's departure. the very, very high expectations for this team and what the production is going to look like for Jared Goff and the offense. That was two years ago. Two years ago. I remember that game, but yes, last year was not the Kansas City game. What game was it? Last year they started, I think, the Rams. Yes. Thank you. So what are our expectations for the offense in light of the transition of offensive coordinator? For me, I don't, I think they have so much established

structure, right? So much trellis for the vine, so much consistency and personnel that I don't personally over-emphasize the departure of Ben Johnson. If this was a one-year wonder team, if this was a change in the, a lot of the players. Yeah. That's what I mean. Okay. Yeah, yeah. I didn't know if you were mocking me. No, no, no. I'm like I was going to repeat myself or not. I'm completely agreeing with you that most of the players are the same. And so, and we've seen this. Dave Canales was the number one. you know, higher in the offseason two years ago, leaves Tampa Bay, goes to Carolina. Everybody has this discussion about the Tampa Bay offense in Baker-Mayfield, and it was better than it was the year before. So I don't want to just, I don't just want to concede that this team is going to be much worse on offense. I think they will be very close. Whether that ends up number one or number three or number five, that's going to be very long. So I do think that they're going to move down to be like 10.

which is not a bad offense. They're going to be a good offense. There are very large fantasy implications, though, of if the Detroit lines are the 10th ranked offense, of where the ADP of these guys are going. When you think of their offensive line, it's not just the Ben Johnson situation. That does exist. He doesn't play offensive line. What he did, what he did is he was like sprinkles on top. because you remember like the play that Ben Johnson came up with where it's like they've you know he was watching film of the player that stumbled and so they actually came up with the touchdown pass where they totally forgot to the ground like I mean that kind of stuff is gone because that was truly Ben Johnson's doing but it's the offensive line that scares me a little bit more so you combine both of those things together with how prolific they've been I think there'll be a good offense but I expect them to take a step back in total touchdowns so just to give you perspective because I didn't know the answer to this

I was just looking it up. They scored 33.2 points per game last year. That was number one. In 2023, they were at 27.1 points per game, which was number five. Yeah. So they do have multi-year consistency. That's a six point per game difference. I mean, it's going to move around, but I would expect them to be in that range. And they, with how hot they ran last year, like over the last decade. what they put up of averaging 3.8 or more total touchdowns per game. They're one of seven teams to do that. Some of the teams that we have actual next year data on, those teams regressed by at least 10 total touchdowns in that time period. I think you can even make the argument that it happens because their defense is better than it was as well. Sure. They suffered tremendous injuries defensively. There are 20th and yards allowed.

30th in passing yards allowed. It put their offense in a position where they needed 33 points a game to win a lot of ball games. So the second half of the year. I remember at the beginning of the year is like, don't play guys against the lions. And then when they lost their entire defense. Yeah. And I mean, especially it was great. Losing Hutchinson is. Oh, that's massive. Is incalculable. Yeah. So you can't even calculate it. No. So they, uh, that, that's the lay of the land. I mean, there aren't major personnel changes or. you know, overhaul on offense. Jason mentioned their offensive line situation. To give you an example, we always think of them as like one of, if not the best. Like the Eagles are the best offensive line. Then it's the Lions. They were ranked fourth last year. Their start of 2025 ranking within PFF is 13th. So like that was that has been the strength of that team has been their offensive line. And we know Jared Goff when pressure gets to him has not always been as good. So.

That is the personal change I'm worried about. Goff has been one of three quarterbacks to finish inside the top 10 each of the last three years. He is the only player in NFL history with a 72% completion percentage and 4,500 passing yards in one season. And I do think that Jared Goff stands as one of the handful of potential MVPs. Anytime you're a heavy favorite, you're still in that category. But the discussion around fantasy... revolves more around your first round pick, Jemir Gibbs, who's going to go in the top five in most drafts. His running mate, David Montgomery, in the backfield, who, you know, does he maintain his role? And more so, does he maintain success in that role? Right. I don't think so. I don't think either of those is going to prove true. I don't think he's going to be the exact same breakdown because you're entering the real peak of Jemir Gibbs' career. And Montgomery is...

I just don't think it's going to be a smooth sailing on the offensive line. So I think you will see a slightly bigger lean towards Gibbs, but that's not a certainty. Well, you're going to need that. You're going to absolutely, I believe if you're taking Gibbs as like the number three running back off the board, the fifth pick, like you're going to need him to get more of the lion's share work over David Montgomery. Oh, yeah, double. Double meaning. He's a, he's a strange player because he feels fragile and risky. But he also then has the... You're talking about Gibbs? I'm talking about David Montgomery. Okay. And then... But he has the... If Gibbs missed his time, David Montgomery is incredible. And which you cannot... You cannot say that for every single backup in football that if they get the lead spot that it's going to be awesome. Yeah, they'll be improved. But David Montgomery would be awesome if everything belonged to him. And yet he still feels like...

not a pick I want to make in the fifth round. When Montgomery went down, to illustrate it in the reverse, when Montgomery went down the last four weeks of the season, Gibbs averaged 29.3 fantasy points per game. That was, I mean, that's outrageously high. It is half PPR. It was kind of a, it was a perfect scenario because you had limited season left so you could just give Gibbs a ton of work. The problem that I have with Montgomery and looking at him, like we can't have all these discussions about the offensive line changing and him getting a year older.

and not acknowledge the fact that this is a 15 and 2 team, and 70% of his carries came when Detroit was leading or tied, which that number came up when we talked about Derek Henry, like 80% or something of Derek Henry's carries came when they were leading or tied. You saw that schedule. When push comes to shove, if these games are close, it's tough to have Montgomery on the field and a comeback. It's just, it's difficult. The versatility that Gibbs, I mean, one of this, We didn't mention it in the news, but one of the recent stories is Gibbs is lining up on the outside more than he ever has. Those are fun. And so it is Gibbs time in this offense, but Montgomery, when you draft him in the fifth round, you're going to make the decision to take Montgomery, who is technically a two on this offense, over other potential starters, right? Where does DeAndre Swift go right now? Is that fourth round?

I think, no, I think Swift is later than Montgomery. So, so that's what I'm saying is you're going to have to, yeah, okay, he's eight running backs later. So who's going next to Montgomery? And how would you make those decisions? Because I will tell you. There's got to be starters in that vicinity, and Montgomery is not. Yeah, you're, you are correct. So there's Isaiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, RJ Harvey, are the next three running. James. James Connor is one spot ahead of him. But yeah, I mean, but I, that's how I feel about Gibbs too. And I realize Gibbs is so electric that, you know, he's a league winning type. But like, you're taking Gibbs over Derek Henry, you know, in a lot of situations. You're taking them over Christian McCaffrey, over Ash and Gentie. And I feel like. It's easy for people to think that.