Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy QB's in 2016

top guy. And that's why coming into this year, you know, everyone was, is it Cam? And Aaron Rogers was my number one. Aaron Rogers will be my number one next year. 40 touchdowns, 4,400 yards. Four rushing touchdowns, number one most consistent quarterback. 12 top 10 performances out of 16 games. Only one time did he not finish in the top 21. And he had six top two performances over the year. Put up.

A little bit better numbers against bottom 16 defenses, but it was pretty even. His yardage went up against bottom 16 defenses by about 50 yards. And he was over two touchdowns a game no matter who he played. So to be fair, though, I mean, we did, we can't forget the beginning of the season was very frustrating for the Green Bay Packers offense. I remember us frequently talking about what is wrong. What is wrong with Aaron Rogers? Because he's not, he's not putting up the kind of numbers that you're used to. I mean, he had that.

streak dating back to last year where it was I think double digit games without a 300 yard performance that's right but I think a lot of that was tied to just the weapons he had available he didn't have the Jordy Nelson is just so crucial to that offense what he brings it makes all the all the wide receivers on that team better all right so I you know but he's we'll talk a lot more about Aaron Rogers

obviously this offseason, and we'll talk about where he's being drafted and where we would draft him. But him being on another level, going back to 2009, do you make exceptions to your philosophies for Aaron Rogers, Mike? No. It depends on what you mean by early. If you're saying, would I grab him in the second round? No, not happening. But a guy like Rogers that's maybe in the fifth round, maybe, which means... Well, you would never have him. Yeah, that means...

Most likely. Very, very low probability that he would actually be on the team. One of the nice things that happened this year is if you look at the average draft position over the last several years at the quarterback position, it plummeted this year. So I don't know if that was... You're welcome. Yeah, exactly. You're welcome, America. People are listening more and more and realizing, oh, I don't need a draft quarterback early. That allowed...

people like Aaron Rogers to be drafted later. Now, Aaron Rogers will probably go second round next year. I would be willing to draft him in the fourth, no problem. That would be my state. If I can get three good wide receiver running back to start and then a locked and loaded quarterback, who I know is going to be a top three type guy, I would be willing. As of today, Rogers is going at the back of the second round, Brady and Breeze in the third round. Yep.

And then you actually don't see another quarterback until almost the fifth. So that seems a little lower than we're used to seeing. Yeah, well, that's right now. I know. Once the normal leagues, like, you know, the regular, the casual players are going, he's going to start going in the first round. Matt Ryan's the number two quarterback. He was drafted all the way back at like 140. Stoodly. Yeah. So he, you know, almost 5,000 yards, 38 touchdowns. The big number there, seven interceptions.

You know, look, just a MVP season from Matt Ryan. He was great. He was consistent. He never gave you a performance outside the top 21. He had those big games. And look, he was just absolutely great. The question for fantasy owners is, you know, is Matt Ryan, did he level up? Right? That's the language we use when we talked about Cam Newton. Did he level up? Is this something you can expect? Obviously players like,

Brady and Rogers and Breeze. They reach another level and they persist at that level. They're the same. Is Matt Ryan going to be drafted? Is he going to be Cam Newton for next year? Is he got the potential for that? Or not really because his numbers haven't been, you know, he didn't make an all-time leap. Right. I don't think he has the Cam Newton level of regression possible. But with Kyle Shanahan getting the old, the wink, wink, nudge, nudge.

from San Francisco, all signs point to the offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, moving to San Francisco. And we've seen Kyle Shanahan moving throughout teams throughout the years, making just gems out of quarterback. Ask Matt Schaub what it's like to play for Kyle Shanahan when you lead the league in passing. And the play calling, too, both in the running game and the passing game. I think if Kyle Shanahan has gone, which by now could actually be official.

I think there is regression for Matt Ryan. Let me, yeah, as you say, I want to give you some perspective. And I do want people to remember, he played with Kyle Shane and Ann in 2015. Right, yeah, but that's first year. Right. But I'm not, I'm not one to just, just say Kyle Shane is the whole reason this happened. It's touchdowns for me. Well, it's touchdowns, but look, average, you know, the average completion for Matt Ryan for his career was 7, 6, 6, 7, 7, 6, 7, 6, 7.

This year was 9.26, right? Yeah. Interceptions, double digits every single year down to seven this year. He less than have them. His touchdowns went from 21 to 38. His passer rating in his career, he's a 93 pastor rating on average. This year was 117. So that's good and bad, right? That's, you're amazing Matt Ryan. We like to see it over. Look, Aaron Rogers.

Yeah, I just read. He's been consistent. Yeah, the thing about, so Matt Ryan, the regression is coming for, I agree with Jason. Matt Ryan has always been lacking touchdowns, which is funny because, I mean, you look at Julio Jones superstar. The biggest knock on Julio Jones for fantasy football is he doesn't get you those elite level touchdowns. But Matt Ryan has, you looked at his numbers. This is why he was in our sleeper list in the UDK was he was consistent.

The yardage was very high. He just wasn't throwing touchdowns, and that's the number that it can fluctuate. What I like about Matt Ryan, top 16, bottom 16 passing defenses did not matter. He averaged over 300 yards a game. I'm going to go on record and say that while regression may happen, I still put him in the top three quarterbacks. And I do go. I will go on record and say he will not finish as a top five quarterback next year. And that's fine. And the reason is this year you're going to bring back personnel.

You got Gabriel and Sanoo. You got a maturing hardy. You have Hooper. Coleman is maturing. Freeman's still young. And then Julio Jones tops the whole thing off, right? Yeah. We saw the impact of that type of situation always made on Stafford's numbers. So personnel, maturity. I'm going to put him in the top three next year. I'm going number four. How about that? Right in the middle of you guys. Three, four, five. Hey, before we get to the rest of the quarterback, truthiness. Want to thank today's sponsor.

Blue Apron, Fookland, listen, Blue Apron is hooking you up. They are making dinner time easy. It is the worst. You get home. The struggle is real. What am I going to make? Blue Apron makes that extremely simple with pre-portioned ingredients for fabulous recipes that you are not coming up with on your own. Just listen to a couple of the meals that are possible. These are available in January. Seared pork chops with feral and cranberry chutney.

Spaghetti squash and marinerra with mushrooms and garlic knots, spicy shrimp and Korean rice cakes with cabbage and furakaki. Have we nailed down the defia? That is a Japanese seasoning. Ow, we got it. We got it this time, America. I'm telling you, all three of us have used Blue Apron. I got three more coming this week.

It's fabulous. It really makes dinner time a lot easier, a lot more fun, cooking with the family. It really brings the bonds together. So check out this week's menu and get your first three meals free with free shipping by going to blue apron.com slash ballers. You will love how good it feels and tastes to create incredible home-cooked meals with blue apron. So don't wait. That's blue apron.com slash ballers, blue apron, a better way to cook. We also want to thank Indochino for sponsoring today's show. We absolutely love Indochino. All three of us here.

We have an Indochino suit. You're talking about a made-to-measure suit that fits perfectly. Not one of those generic off-the-rack Frankenstein shoulder junk suits that we probably see half the people at FSTA walking around it. These are incredible suits, and they are one of the largest made-to-measure menswear brands in the world that make it easy to get a great fitting suit. Listen to the process. You go to Indochino.com. You pick from hundreds of fabrics and patterns. You get to choose customizations on the suit.

We all chose jacket linings that we absolutely love. Submit your body measurements, which is a very easy process, and then you kick back, relax, and you get ready to step into the best fitting suit, the most stylish suit you've ever worn in just four weeks. Listen, they are hooking the footclan up. The listeners get any premium Indochino suit for just $389 at Indochino.com. You just have to enter that promo code footballers at checkout. That's 50% off the regular price for a made-to-measure premium suit, and the shipping's free.

That's Indochino.com promo code footballers for any premium suit. Just $389 with free shipping. You don't have to worry about badly fitting suits anymore. We love them. No more expensive trips to the tailor. So go to Indocino.com and use the promo code footballers at checkout. I'm reading the definition of truthiness over here. The quality of seeming or being felt to be true, even if not necessarily true. So I think truthiness may be key to fantasy football trading.

That's a Colbert original. It is a Colbert original. Yeah. But I found it humorous that Google actually gave me a official definition. We got to get our, we got to get a word in Oxford. New life goals. We do. Yes. Yeah. Great. Johnny Walberg. Sorry, that's a, sorry. That's not. That's spectacular. That's my IMDB. We need to move down because someone make a new IMDB page for Johnny Wahlberg. And Johnny John in the funky bunch. All right. So I expect Matt Ryan to regress.

Far more than you two do, but he's been good. Very consistent. You don't get the final word. Matt Ryan is the best. All right. We need to get down into the more highly debated guys. Drew Breeze was number three. You know, demise avoided. He's good. He's very good. He did play much better against top. What's Jason? Oh.

He was real bad for two games. I'm saying it was dumb coming into this year. I said a million times he was a favorite quarterback to draft coming into this season because he finally had weapons back. He didn't have an old getting older Marquis Colston. He had a young getting better, you know, Michael Thomas. And so what Drew Breeze did, he finished as the third best. Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas.

He finishes the third best quarterback, and Drew Brees is the only other guy. There's no third, oh, but Tom Brady or but, you know, Philip Rivers. There's none of that. Drew Brees and Aaron Rogers are the only two guys. Philip Rivers? That's where you wins? Well, who else? Ben Ruffles Berger. Andrew Luck? Andrew Luck, Tom Brady. None of those guys have been consistent for a long period of time as a fantasy football top three type guy.

Drew Brees is. He was the third, sixth, fifth, fifth, second, first, second, second, first quarterback going back the same all the way to 2008. The splits are real, though. 5,200 yards, 37 touchdowns, 15 picks. Splits are real. Home road. Yeah, it's really the home on the road because against top half defenses, he was actually much better than against bottom half. I assume that coincided with his.

Road and Away games. He had a couple of those weird games that the home game against Detroit killed people. He was a playoff killer for a couple of weeks depending on when your playoff started. That's not going to sit well for people. Where's his ADP? You know, last year he was drafted in the middle of the fourth. I could grab him. Was it? 46. In drafts that we were in where you got smarter players, I could grab him seventh or eighth round sometimes last year. And so.

uh that that's he's he was uh yeah he was late late fifth yeah we had the wrong i think he's gonna go way up this year we'll have to wait until his adp to see whether he's drafted but drew breeze is good there's no regression coming his weapons are getting better they're intact i think we can move on now to andrew if sean peyton is traded anyway i guess he won't be now because of all the coaching staff was our position i retract my statement don't talk about that all right andrew luck

Andrew Luck is number four. I've gone on record. He's one of my favorite players for next year at the quarterback position. He already finished number four. I think the affordability of Andrew Luck and the top three potential of Andrew Luck make him a no brain. I mean, he was a fifth round pick last year. This year, he's not going so far until, you know, fourth, late fourth, early fifth. He'll be before Breeze. I would draft Andrew Luck in the fifth round. Me, 100%. You talked about...

drafting Aaron Rogers there, you're not going to be able to. Yeah. But Andrew Luck, you might be able to. Right. And if, if my estimation is that Brady, Rogers, Ryan will all go ahead of Andrew Luck. Yeah. I don't think Ryan will, but Ryan probably. Why wouldn't Ryan? I agree that. Because people are going to listen to me come draft season and I'll destroy him. I mean, I can't see. You're going to destroy him so you can draft him. Breeze Brady Rogers will go ahead of him.