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Episode notes & curated moments 9 recordsmoment
The beginning of the five-day beginning
Exactly one week before August 1, the hosts call the return to five episodes a week 'the beginning of the beginning' and treat the final divisional breakdown as another signal that full fantasy season has arrived.
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Camp highlights, hype train, and no bullet trains
The show's longest-named Slack channel, camp-highlights-and-hype-train, collects camp reports. The hosts require another side, repeated reliable reporting, extra attention to negative team news, and the original quote rather than a hyperbolic headline; one blurb may start a little train, but never a bullet train.
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Ben Sinnott enters a government shutdown cult classic
Ben Sinnott missing PFF's top 32 makes Mike's workday a coal-mine shift, closes Sinnott's government for an unapproved budget, and confirms the loyalty has become a cult classic. Mike still believes an opportunity could work, but now openly values every play as future show material.
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Three Ducers equal three Cardinals wins
The hosts extend NFC West greatness by association to the production booth, then note that its three Ducers match the Cardinals' three wins. The published video lands the joke with a live cut to exactly three humans beneath the DUCERS ALLEY sign.
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Jason puts Kyren RB1 on the Water Bet board
Jason insists Kyren Williams will remain an RB1, another host takes the negative side, and the claim goes onto the Water Bet board with the show's real green bumper. The argument escalates into a fictional house co-sign: Jason supposedly needs Kyren's checks to keep coming, and the accusation returns when touchdown odds favor Kyren.
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Jason's unofficial My Guys need no ceremony
Kyren Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Gino Smith are compiled as Jason's My Guys, but Jason says he need not make them official because everyone already knows. Gino in particular is a free bet: competence is a huge win, failure merely preserves a funny joke, and Jason openly loves being associated with the bit.
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Max Brosmer becomes Maximus and needs a Viking beard
A Brosmer believer upgrades Max to Maximus, and the panel decides the grander name would change both their opinion and his play. Maximus requires a large Viking beard rather than his current mustache, soul patch, and beard arrangement; he is then ordered to design plays and lead the locker room through a Trojan horse.
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Falcon's birth marks thirty years of Cardinals futility
Matt Pingrey confirms Falcon is exactly 30, so the hosts use his birth as the boundary for noting only one other team opened under a four-win projection in that span. The Cardinals' number fell from four and a half, their fourth quarters were minus 55, and the hosts gleefully predict repeated obliteration because criticizing their own team grants immunity.
summary
Episode notes
Andy, Jason, and Mike mark August 1 as the beginning of the beginning: five episodes a week and full fantasy-football season. Their exceptionally long camp-highlights-and-hype-train Slack channel supplies a useful philosophy—seek the other side, wait for a repeated drumbeat rather than boarding a bullet train, take negative team news seriously, and read the original quote instead of a hyperbolic blurb. Mike's Ben Sinnott loyalty survives a PFF snub as a government shutdown and a cult classic. A live cut to exactly three human producers gives the Cardinals' three wins a matching Ducers Alley punch line. Jason then defends Kyren Williams as an RB1, triggers the real Water Bet bumper, and is accused of needing Kyren's checks because the player co-signed his house; Kyren joins Gino Smith and Sam LaPorta on Jason's unofficial, already-obvious My Guys list. The panel upgrades Max Brosmer to Maximus, prescribes a Viking beard, and imagines a Trojan-horse play design. Finally, Matt Pingrey confirms he is 30, letting the hosts measure the Cardinals' near-record-low projection from Falcon's birth and gleefully dump on their own team.
even though he's not giving you stuff on the ground, really. We did have 300 rushing yards two years ago, but it's the touchdown rate. Some players just are in the system where the touchdown rate is going to stay high, and I think his will. Well, his touchdown rate is insane. We talk about these outlier seasons where someone throws for 7% of their passes to complete for touchdowns, which is really, those are the outrageous outlier years. He's done it three of his four years, which is, you know, some of that is Christian McCaffrey. You've got kind of some free passing touchdowns because you just do this little dump off,
and he ends up with, you know, a handful of receiving touchdowns. So that's helpful for Brock Purdy. I do think this could be the best receiving core that he's had. That was something in the throat. Did you run out of air? No. I think he was starting to choke. Yeah, just getting choked up on, you know, a couple years ago when Brock Purdy was, you know, excellent, finished as the quarterback six, you know, when you have Debo and you have IU. Because it was 4,331. But now you added Mike Evans. Okay, maybe he's old busted and it doesn't work. Or maybe he is, you know.
Devontae Adams and gives you 12 goal line touchdowns. Exactly. You've got Ricky Pearsall, who maybe he's healthy this year. You did spend a high pick on DeJuan Stribbling. I know that that was mocked by the fantasy and draft community. No, I'm told that. I don't know if you've seen what's going on lately, Jason. I've seen it. But several teams, including the Rams, had Stribbling down as the best wide receiver in the draft. The number one. Yeah. The number one. Not Carnell Tate, not McKay Lemon, not Jordan Tyson. Everyone had him as the number one. Yeah. Also, then Kalen Black in the third round, a running back who didn't even go to the combine.
And I don't think was on everyone's board. I mean, this is a team that has made some reaches. They do their own thing, man. They've made some reaches and they've not worked out almost ever. But I will say. That's the problem with it. Stop reaching. If Stribbling is good. Sure. And Pearsall's healthy and Mike Evans is decent, this could end up being a very good wide receiver core for Brock. That's all I'm saying. The defense of Stribbling that I have seen, talked about, and now these are not, this is me reporting on what I'm reading. Stribbling is a strong blocking wide receiver, which we all know from Kyle Shanahan's time
of your wide receivers, they need to be men out there and they need to block. This is a huge part of it. Like we had Dante Pettis. If you remember. I have no recollection of that person. Dante Pettis felt like a player who was about to break out. Yeah. Did he? I don't know. He did for a minute. He felt like it. I have no recollection. He wasn't a blocker. And then into the doghouse for being too soft. And it's like, when Brandon Iyuk was having his success with San Francisco, like he kind of got doghoused too and then turns into this like just a real physical player.
And then I'm saying that like that's the argument for Stribbling while they, and they bring that up of it can Pearsall even be that guy. No, I mean, unfortunately you have to put a lot of ifs and coulds into San Francisco prognostication because Pearsall hasn't proven to be healthy enough. Kittle? No, Pearsall is difficult because when he's on the field. Yeah, but he had, he had games last year where I watched and I was like, that's good. And then games I watched, I was like, what's going on? Like, I don't know if he never got healthy. That's most likely the case because he didn't really see a full allotment of snaps after
the first three games. You didn't even mention Christian Kirk, who is probably the second best receiver behind Mike Evans on this team. Kirk will be a really solid role player for this team. Probably not fantasy relevant, but he helps Brock. They do have to start on the road against the Rams. So if you draft the 49er, your week one may be. That's mean. Like if you want to say the highest odds of Brock Purdy getting hurt are in week one against the Rams. But let's talk Christian McCaffrey real quick before we move on to the Cardinals. Easy. Christian McCaffrey, you know, when he's on the field, he's been a number one or number
two running back. And I do mean like the number one or number two, not like a one or two. When he's off the field, he's the worst pick. I can say that because it's happened three times. You don't say that after one random season, but it is a risk. I mean, the older you get on a team that deals with injuries every single year, it is scary. I want Gibbs more than I want McCaffrey. But it's still in the back of my head every day that maybe McCaffrey will just have another number one season. He absolutely could. The way he takes care of his body.
The fact that every time he's ever played a full season, he is the number one or number two back. His utilization in the passing game, his utilization on the goal line. He had 75 red zone. Why don't you defend him? I don't think they can, man. I've never seen a player. It's the only other player that I've seen be more indefensible when you know the ball is coming to him is Travis Kelsey. Like in his prime. It was like these two guys just find empty parts of the field and you can't stop it. It's equal parts like the obsession of taking care of yourself, your work ethic, all of
that, but also knowledge of the game. I mean, he's always in the right spot, always makes the right cut. He does everything perfectly and they give him all of the opportunities, which is both the good and the bad. My downside case for Christian McCaffrey is based upon the fact that he had over 400 touches last year. At this age, at 29, it is very, very difficult for a human being to have that kind of a workload and then be healthy the following season. So if he's healthy, he's awesome. Yeah, we saw Saquon struggle. Saquon struggled. I mean, we've got a long, long list of, and no one on that list is not a all-time great
player. When you're, if you get 400 touches, it's because you were the center of an offense and one of the best players in the NFL. That's it. The, at least, so 102 of those were receptions. And it's not that you're not getting hit with a reception, but you, you can protect yourself more instead of the, well, I got to go between the tackles and I'm, I'm going to get hit real bad. Top 12 picks according to ADP right now. CMC or B-John? Are you asking? Yep. Oh, I'll take B-John. CMC or Jamar Chase? Chase? CMC or Jonathan Taylor? Jonathan Taylor for me.
I'll take McCaffrey. JSN. Previous mention, JSN or CMC? JSN. That's fine. Amon Ra, St. Brown? Amon Ra? Amon Ra over McCaffrey. CD, CD Lam? I put Amon Ra and CD up with that. I think they're in the elite of the elite tier. CD Lam or CMC? CD. Ooh. I'm, I'm like really worried about Christian McCaffrey. Yes, you are. I need to go to church. You get none. Yeah, I know. And that feels stupid. One follow-up question for you. If George Kittle was to miss, I know he may not, but let's say he's going to miss the first three games. That's what we find out, right?
He's not on the pup, but they're probably not going to play him right away. He belongs where in the draft? Three games that he doesn't play. Where does he belong in fantasy drafts? Man, like 10th round? I think where he's going. And you take him along with another title. Yeah. Where he is going, I have no problem. Like, where I am right now is I feel pretty, I feel good. I feel good about him. It's not 100% at this point, but I think we're trending in a strong direction. Okay. And he's a man. I was just looking for, like, we normally have music in the offseason for a certain team.
Because there's men? I mean, there's just... Oh, I thought we were... Oh, oh. We're moving on. To feel so mean to Trey McBride, the Arizona Cardinals, the runt of the litter. Just so unserious. Let me explain how bad it's going to be. In the last 30 years, so going back to before... The Falcon is 30, right? Are you 30 on the dot, Falcon? Yes. So going back to the birth of this fine individual. Well, what? Let's not get carried away. Going back to the birth of this individual. There has been only one other team than this year's Arizona Cardinals that has opened the
year with a win projection under four wins. That's right. The Cardinals are joining the 2017 New York Jets, which I don't remember if in 2017 we even played 17 weeks. Hold on. Which maybe we're setting a new record in standard. Also needs to be mentioned, it opened at four and a half. And has been aggressively betting down. The people said nay. They said nice try. Never getting to five wins. They are... That's incredible. They were outscored by 55 points. 55! In the fourth quarter last year, the worst in the NFL. They lost all their one-score games, almost. 2-8. Oh, and that was Todd Bowles' Jets.
The Cardinals started 2-0 last year, guys. Guys. Did you know this? Guys. Oh. The 2017 Jets won five games. They crushed it. Yeah. We'll be all right. How... Was it a 17-game season then? On it. I want to know if the Cardinals are setting a new standard. I would imagine it's a 16-game season. Yeah. So the Cardinals are now the lowest... You would think we would know when it changed, but I don't know. It is 16. It's the lowest projected win total in a 17-game season in history. And it's deserved. You look at their schedule. I mean, the Cardinals... The Cardinals are underdogs by double digits for the first three weeks of the year.
They're going to get obliterated by the Chargers, the Seahawks, and the Niners. Then they're going to go to the Giants and get obliterated. Oh, crap. Then they're going to play the Detroit Lions and get obliterated. They might win that. They will serve the purpose in fantasy this year. And by the way, I love that I get to dump on this team. And it's not like somebody can attack me because it's my team. But they're going to serve one special purpose this year. It is going to be an unbelievable sign when your player is facing the Arizona Cardinals. Yes, because here's the defensive ranks from the 2025 team.
29th in points per game, 27th in yards per game, EPA per pass, 27th. Pressure percent, 28. Sacks, 28. They sucked across the board and did nothing to address the defense this year. I mean, the reason people – They're going to worry about us. But this is a fantasy football show. Yeah, I mean – This is fantastic news because there are weapons here. There is, you know, whether Marv steps up or not, whether Michael Jerry Rice Wilson is real or not. We know Trey McBride is real and we know that Jeremiah Love is an absolute sensational back. He's going to be able to fight through some of what the Cardinals are on offense.
You have LaFleur bringing in an offensive-minded system. So the offense could be okay whilst the defense is the worst in the league, which provides fantasy goodness. Yeah, I don't think we're going to get a Raiders-esque type of offensive situation here. I don't think it's going to be good. I think you're going to be in a lot of desperate games. That could be good for fantasy. It can be bad. You could be in situations that the game is meaningless. And, you know, Jacoby Brissett threw the ball to the tight end position I think more than anybody in football last year. If he is your starter, which he will be to start the season, that is very good for Trey McBride.
But as we said on our show about the AFC West and Brock Bowers, it is very likely that the Raiders go through a quarterback change at some point during the year. And it is very likely that the Cardinals do. There's just no advantage for the Arizona Cardinals to, like the Brissett contract crap that we're talking about. It's all about a year. It's all about being the starter this year. And barring a miracle, this team will be circling the drain. And you're going to try out some other players like Carson Beck. And I'll tell you, you know, locally here, the media has nothing to talk about.
Carson Beck is like one of the biggest storylines for the Cardinals this offseason. So he will 100% be playing. And sadly, and this is worth, you know, thinking through, more than likely, it's probably near the fantasy playoffs. You know, it's towards the end of the season. And that will not be as good an offense, presumably. Rookie quarterbacks don't usually support high-end wide receivers. Or running backs or tight ends. And then when they rarely do, they're not a third-round, you know, pick. Let's tell people what to do with Jeremiah Love. Because, again, just because you were drafted to a situation we don't love doesn't mean you're not going to be important or valuable or interesting for fantasy.
Again, it's in the best interest of the Cardinals to give Jeremiah Love opportunities to establish himself in the league as the one kind of shining piece of this puzzle than it is to me to give snaps to James Conner in the back half of the year. So whether it's more of a committee to start the season, I do think that Jeremiah Love Express will get going for the vast majority of the back two-thirds of the season. Yeah, I agree. And where he's being drafted this year is acceptable. Say thank you to Ashton Gentry. Yeah, I mean, basically, last year, Ashton Gentry should have been drafted where this year's Jeremiah Love is being drafted.
Last year, Gentry was the back of the first-round pick. Very, very bad team. And then he finished as a running back one, but it felt like one of the biggest bust picks in all of fantasy football because what you paid for him was to be a superstar. And he really wasn't. He volumed his way towards, you know, relevance at the end of the year. You're going to have a lot of the same of that. I do think that it will be a slow start for Jeremiah Love, which sucks. The team went out and they paid for Tyler Algier. Tyler Algier was just behind a veteran, Bijan Robinson, and still vultured goal line carries.
This team isn't going to have a whole lot of goal line opportunities. So if you take, you know, four, four of those opportunities away from Love, I'm not saying, oh, they're going to get... Well, he can do some scoring from outside of that zone. Absolutely, and he will need to. Floor and ceiling, Mike. Jeremiah Love can finish where? Floor and ceiling. So floor, I think if everything went terrible for Jeremiah Love, his floor is still in the top 20. So he's at a place where I don't think he's a bad pick at all. Ceiling-wise, over the second half, they just say, hey, you're the guy.
Let's see what we can do here. You can catch the ball. And you're going to get a bunch of targets because we're going to be losing. I think the ceiling is still in the top 10. So where his ADP is right now, you know, I'm seeing like a running back 13 in best ball. Running back 13 on sleeper. And it's like he could legitimately be your running back too. Like a world exists where that's happening. Starting like RB-RB with Love is my RB2, I think that's enticing. The Gentie excitement last year was far, far better than what Love's excitement is this year.
And Gentie ended up playing on the league's worst team. It was a bumpy ride, but the cost was around higher. And there were games. I mean, you did get big games from Gentie. You got big games, but I would say that while both teams look like they are not good, you know, they're not going to win a ton of games and they're not great offenses, the Cardinals offense projects better. But the difference is last year Gentie went to a team that had no one else they could hand the ball to. There's just no competition for touches. And for the Cardinals, you know, they're not going to.
We did go into the offseason. I remember you guys were worried about that. About what? About Gentie having competition. No, not near August. In August. It's not the competition. It's the concern that Koobz wants to have more of a timeshare. No, that's this year. No, that's for this year. He's saying last year. Last year there was no one on their depth chart. I was saying last year I think there was still some conversations around. Who would we have said? I mean, Mostert was one of them at the time. Yeah, Mostert was the RB2. But no, they also had the dude from the year before.
No, that everybody hyped up White. Samir White? Samir White. I remember conversations. I do not. I remember them because it's like the rookie might not get everything you think will get. This sounds like conversations you were having with yourself. As a mirror. No. Yeah. Marvin Harrison is being drafted in the seventh. Michael Wilson in the seventh. Interesting. I mean, I'll take the shot on Marvin Harrison. I'm fully moved to that side of like, which poison would you like to drink? If I get something valuable out of this. Like Michael Wilson's weeks were mostly without Marv where he was outrageous. Will it happen for Marv this year?
I don't know, man. I mean, he's not being drafted like it will. That's a nice boost. He's going to face the same rookie quarterback problems at the second half of the year too. This is going to be one train wreck of a season for Arizona. And you're going to have to go along for the ride with Trey McBride. And now that ride will be good. Jeremiah Love's ride should be all right. Yeah. And the Marv Michael Wilson one is going to be the most risk. But it's also not the price that you were paying in years past. Yeah. The price for the risk is already built in.
I'm fine taking a shot at Marv. He had 808 as a rookie. Got injured last year. And now is coming back in year three as a guy that is seen as a core piece of this team's future. And so he's going to have the opportunity to step up. He's certainly got in the gym this offseason. His points per game, when active and healthy last year, went down. That is not good. Before the injury. So it's nine games played. The pace was 990 and seven and a half. So that would have been 10.6 fantasy points per game. Which is about where you're drafting.