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Episode notes & curated moments 9 recordsmoment
The beginning of the five-day beginning
Exactly one week before August 1, the hosts call the return to five episodes a week 'the beginning of the beginning' and treat the final divisional breakdown as another signal that full fantasy season has arrived.
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Camp highlights, hype train, and no bullet trains
The show's longest-named Slack channel, camp-highlights-and-hype-train, collects camp reports. The hosts require another side, repeated reliable reporting, extra attention to negative team news, and the original quote rather than a hyperbolic headline; one blurb may start a little train, but never a bullet train.
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Ben Sinnott enters a government shutdown cult classic
Ben Sinnott missing PFF's top 32 makes Mike's workday a coal-mine shift, closes Sinnott's government for an unapproved budget, and confirms the loyalty has become a cult classic. Mike still believes an opportunity could work, but now openly values every play as future show material.
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Three Ducers equal three Cardinals wins
The hosts extend NFC West greatness by association to the production booth, then note that its three Ducers match the Cardinals' three wins. The published video lands the joke with a live cut to exactly three humans beneath the DUCERS ALLEY sign.
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Jason puts Kyren RB1 on the Water Bet board
Jason insists Kyren Williams will remain an RB1, another host takes the negative side, and the claim goes onto the Water Bet board with the show's real green bumper. The argument escalates into a fictional house co-sign: Jason supposedly needs Kyren's checks to keep coming, and the accusation returns when touchdown odds favor Kyren.
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Jason's unofficial My Guys need no ceremony
Kyren Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Gino Smith are compiled as Jason's My Guys, but Jason says he need not make them official because everyone already knows. Gino in particular is a free bet: competence is a huge win, failure merely preserves a funny joke, and Jason openly loves being associated with the bit.
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Max Brosmer becomes Maximus and needs a Viking beard
A Brosmer believer upgrades Max to Maximus, and the panel decides the grander name would change both their opinion and his play. Maximus requires a large Viking beard rather than his current mustache, soul patch, and beard arrangement; he is then ordered to design plays and lead the locker room through a Trojan horse.
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Falcon's birth marks thirty years of Cardinals futility
Matt Pingrey confirms Falcon is exactly 30, so the hosts use his birth as the boundary for noting only one other team opened under a four-win projection in that span. The Cardinals' number fell from four and a half, their fourth quarters were minus 55, and the hosts gleefully predict repeated obliteration because criticizing their own team grants immunity.
summary
Episode notes
Andy, Jason, and Mike mark August 1 as the beginning of the beginning: five episodes a week and full fantasy-football season. Their exceptionally long camp-highlights-and-hype-train Slack channel supplies a useful philosophy—seek the other side, wait for a repeated drumbeat rather than boarding a bullet train, take negative team news seriously, and read the original quote instead of a hyperbolic blurb. Mike's Ben Sinnott loyalty survives a PFF snub as a government shutdown and a cult classic. A live cut to exactly three human producers gives the Cardinals' three wins a matching Ducers Alley punch line. Jason then defends Kyren Williams as an RB1, triggers the real Water Bet bumper, and is accused of needing Kyren's checks because the player co-signed his house; Kyren joins Gino Smith and Sam LaPorta on Jason's unofficial, already-obvious My Guys list. The panel upgrades Max Brosmer to Maximus, prescribes a Viking beard, and imagines a Trojan-horse play design. Finally, Matt Pingrey confirms he is 30, letting the hosts measure the Cardinals' near-record-low projection from Falcon's birth and gleefully dump on their own team.
But like. He can do it without it. And can do it. He's got the body size style. Ability to. To really. Be a. A goal line threat. The questions for the Rams. Are. The. Incredible. Non-stop. Lifelong. Disrespect for Kyron Williams. And. Whether or not. You're going to get more of it on this show. Oh absolutely. You're absolutely going to get more of it on this show. Oh I know it. I know. Because Corum is coming. I mean. And he's coming for your. Your hopes and your dreams. In this whole narrative. No he's not. You're not going to talk about this anymore.
After this year. No. You're not going to bring it up again. You're right. I won't. I won't need to. Wait. Are we live. Or is this the 2025. Blake Corum is. Is coming after Kyron. This is exactly what we heard. Because he's returning punts. This is exactly what we heard last year. He's returning punts. We heard it last year. We heard it the year before. With someone else. I don't even remember. Because whatever. I'm not saying Blake Corum is not good. He is. He's very talented. Will he score. Touchdowns around the goal line. And siphon some away from Kyron. Yeah.
Will Kyron be a top five running back. No. Will Kyron dominate this. Offensive system. And be a running back one in fantasy. That's going to happen. It's going to happen. He's not going to be a running back one in fantasy. To put that on the board. That's a bet. That's twice. Over the. Water bet. I mean. ADP wise. He's not. Yeah. Because people know. Most people. Not Jay. But most people know. Over the last six weeks of the season. Blake Corum was on pace for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. I know there's a lot to go around. Over the last what?
The last six games of the season. So Kyron. During those same games. Was on pace for 1,300 yards. No. I know. But. I'm not saying Corum is not good. I'm saying Kyron will be an RB1. I don't think you're going to have a run. One running back with 1,300 yards and one with 1,100 yards. No. Okay. I think that this team started to fall in love with Blake Corum over the back half of the year. Just because Kyron was more efficient and productive in that time doesn't mean Corum isn't going to get more opportunities. And I think they'll use both of them.
You can like Kyron. It's just a matter of me liking him as an RB2. You liking him as an RB1. Because. I don't know. Maybe he co-signed on a house for you or something. I don't know why he. You're that. No. It's because he signed on the contract for the Rams. Yeah. To make him their starter. And it's also just because. They know what they need. They need to share the load to get to the Super Bowl with these guys. It's just weird, man. Because. Okay. Think about it like this. These are genuine facts. Okay. One of the best offenses in the league, led by Sean McVay, who has always, always, always, since the Todd Gurley time, had a dominant running back for fantasy.
One of the best teams and offenses in the league has a running back who they have paid a lot of money, who the last three years, and he's under contract for several more years. The last three years, he's been a top 10 fantasy running back. He's 25 years old. Those are all. Those are only just facts. But for some reason, Blake Quorum's emergence, it just makes people think Kyron is dead. No, no. It really does. Like, the conversation I've had with other people. Nobody thinks he's dead. It's just acknowledging that you could have two valuable fantasy running backs in the same backfield.
You could. We've had it with Monty and Gibbs before. Like, that's. We've had it with Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler before. Like, there are offenses like, like, Detroit's a good enough offense to give you two running backs. Los Angeles is a good enough offense to give you two. I'm just saying that it's more like Kyron's running back 14 to 16 because Quorum can step up to be the running back 22. Last year, we had two top 24 running backs in Seattle. So, that's just my, I think you're going to see a slight change in the workload. And I think Quorum's a little more explosive.
And I worry about the goal line being a little more shared. That's all. Well, that's not hating Kyron. I mean, you. It is in your mind because you want me to. You just bet that he wouldn't and couldn't be a. No, I didn't say couldn't be. Don't put the word couldn't. That's what you insinuate when you bet he's not going to. You don't insinuate he couldn't. I just nonstop hatred for Kyron Williams. The bet is he won't be. That's the bet. Not that he's incapable of it. All I know is you better leave every draft with Blake Quorum. That's easy to do.
Well, he's going in the eighth round. That's cake. Yeah. And Kyron is being drafted where I think he'll probably finish. That's fine. This is just. Can you acknowledge that Blake Quorum could be valuable for fantasy? Absolutely. I said that from the beginning. Because I think you hate him and he couldn't be. Now you acknowledge your hatred for Kyron Williams. I hate him more than you. Yeah. That's because I hate him none. How dumb could people be to not consider Matthew Stafford a valuable fantasy quarterback? Because he is not in conversations. This is the MVP of the league. On the best offense that you believe in.
The quarterback two from last year in fantasy. So how dumb are we that he is the quarterback 11 off the board in the 10th round? Or are we just. I don't think we all understand it. We all understand it. He had an amazing season. He could replicate it. But throwing 7.7% of your passing attempts for touchdowns is just an outlier of outliers. We talk about that specific stat every single year. His touchdown total, Jason. He threw more touchdowns last year than he did in the two previous seasons combined. Yeah. But he might do it for two years in a row.
He might do it for three. With the system. It's Devontae Adams. Who's there. Yeah. I mean, he definitely could. You said it almost like it was like if he's a part of it. If you go back over the decade plus we've been doing this show, almost every season we come and some quarterback, and they're great ones. They're never bad quarterbacks that throw for 40 touchdowns. They throw for over 7% passing touchdown rate. And every year we're like that. That number's probably going to come back down, and every year it does. Even the people that repeat them, they repeat them every four or five seasons.
They don't really put those 7.5-plus percent passing touchdown rates up in back-to-back seasons. I can't think of many examples. Well, there aren't many, but the great ones have, including Tom Brady. I mean, Tom Brady did that 2020-2021 with Tampa Bay. 40 touchdowns, 43 touchdowns, 6.6, 6. 4,600 yards got better. I mean, we were like, oh, he can't do it. I mean, I remember the talk of Tampa Tom Brady, 4,600 yards and 40 touchdowns. He came back for 5,300 yards and 43 touchdowns. It just feels that way in Los Angeles. That's all I'm saying. It feels like this team is that good.
But it's Devontae Adams to me for everything of does he still have it? And I think fantasy. I'm moving Stafford up. Make it so. I got him at 10 already. We're pretty divided. I think the social dialogue on Devontae Adams was last year, the beginning of the end, a crazy low catch rate with the MVP of football, but a truly dominant touchdown rate, but low reception is not what you're hoping for. If Devontae Adams still has a lot to give, then I think Stafford could be up there in the high 30s again. What do we think about Adams? Yeah, I mean, I am coming around to him being more.
It did seem at the beginning of the offseason you were out on Adams. Yeah, I was kind of out on Adams and on Evans. There isn't a depth chart change here that I was expecting. I thought maybe we'd get some more bodies into the room to contribute. The Rams were looking. They wanted A.J. Brown for a while. I just don't know how he doesn't throw for 40 touchdowns again if Adams is on this team. And they're going to run two tight end sets, and they have talented tight ends. The goal line offense is called Matthew Stafford. That's what I love about this team.
It's very fun for fantasy if you're willing to throw around the goal line. And it's fun for fantasy. Like their highest probability touchdown is Stafford with the ball and running Puka and Devontae Adams around the goal line. And if you run 12 personnel, then your targets are consolidated to those two wide receivers. Yeah, a tight end's going to get a big catch here or there. I mean, Parkinson signed a big contract. Ferguson is coming into his zone. Higby's still there. I am in on Adams. Because last year, the touchdowns is ridiculous. 14 touchdowns. But it's like 24% of the targets.
But he only caught 52% of them. Something's weird. Something is funky about those numbers. I think the touchdowns come down. But the target share should stay right around 24%, maybe even up more. And then there's no way he's catching half of his passes again. One thing that talks me more into Adams, statistically speaking, is I believe he's one of the, he still scored extremely high in terms of separation down the field. They just missed each other. A lot. Which is weird. That's what I'm saying. That's a concern. It is. But it's the concern of like, this doesn't make sense. How happy would you be if we spent enough time on the first three teams of this division that the fourth barely got any talking time?
I think we can do it. I think that sounds awesome. So this is interesting. You're talking about these touchdowns, the offense, all that. Devontae Adams, you know, I think around the goal line, Kyron Williams has been their guy. So I was just curious what like the sports books are saying about touchdown odds for Devontae Adams specifically. Okay. You want to have us guess? I'd be so curious. Is there a number? So it's not total touchdowns. The way that they have it right now is the odds to hit 10 touchdowns. And so right now, the odds to hit 10 touchdowns. To go over 10 touchdowns plus...
I was going to go on the threes. Plus 105. Holy lord. With barely anything. Yeah, which is... So they're saying... They're saying he is the third highest odds at wide receiver to score over 10 touchdowns. So they don't think he's completely lost it. I will say that Kyron having 10 touchdowns is minus 125. So higher odds to do the double digit touchdowns. But that makes sense for a team that has such a good defense. If Adams gets 10 touchdowns, he will be a top 20 wide receiver. Because the yards will go up. I don't see Blake Coram on this list.
I see Kyron way up there at the top by Gibbs and Henry. He can't cheat. Now we're talking. I didn't see Ben Sinnott on that list. I see Jack... Now you're with Ben Sinnott over here. I see Drake May on the rushing touchdown 10 list. Since my whole argument was, man, this guy's scoring 10 times. No, I would... You cannot handle nuance in these discussions. I don't know what you're talking about. I was looking at something on my own. Yeah. Kyron, I feel like... Here he is. I'm telling you, he co-signed in your house. You need his checks to keep coming.
I love Kyron Williams. Yes, you do. The human... Gino Smith, Kyron Williams. I got your list. Yeah. We'll take a break. La Porta. We'll talk. Yeah, La Porta too. What's up, Foot Clan? You are confident and disciplined and focused on details, just like everyone here at the Fancy Footballers, right? Those are words you've used to describe us. In other words, you were made to drive the 2026 Sierra 1500 Denali, a full-size pickup combining capability with elevated design and advanced technology. You can seek out the exceptional with the Denali, their standard 5.3 liter V8 engine and 10-speed automatic transmission. It's got a bold design.
We like bold designs. They got the signature Denali grille, Papa Josh, you know, the signature grille, the chrome header, patterned aluminum trim. Inside, you've got all that comfort. You know, Jason's a comfort guy. We like the comfort. Comfort reigns with leather seating surfaces and 12-way power front seats with power lumbar. You can learn more right now at gmc.com slash Sierra 1500. Those have got to be your my guys. No. Those three. I don't need them. Kyron, La Porta, Gino. You know, we have those guys where, should I make him an official my guy? I don't have to. Everyone already knows.
Everybody already associates me with Gino Smith is what Jason will say. Oh, man. The 49ers. No. Being associated with Gino Smith for Jason. Marv is your guy, too. Is. Well, Marv's risk. I would say Gino Smith is no risk. Nobody drafts him. Nobody uses him. It's a free bet. If Gino Smith is anything competent, huge win. If he's terrible, we all like, yeah, what a funny joke that was. But the issue is he's not going to. He's not competent. Well, that has been my contention against you. Yes. I do. Okay. I love. I love the bit. I'm fine with the bit of me being in on Gino.
But the reality is Gino sucks. He is so he's going to pass for so many more yards than what the Jets passed for last year. That's the only thing. Well, you love Brosmer, too, right? Oh, yeah. Isn't that your other dude? Dude, he's my Brosmer. Maximus. What's the report on Brosmer? The team is still. They still believe in him. Also, if that dude went by Maximus Brosmer, I think we have a very. Maximus is underrated. Yeah. We have a very different opinion of that player. I'll bet he plays different. Yes. He also has a different facial hair situation. Which would help him.
What's he currently rocking? It ain't a beard. Because he'd have a big old beard. Oh, he doesn't. Not a beard. No, I was going to say. Maximus would have more of a Viking beard. He'd have a big beard, yeah. Can he grow one, Mike? Based on your studies? I mean, he has the mustache. It's not the goatee. It's not connected, but it's the mustache, the soul patch, into the beard. I always call it the Spaniard or something like that. Yeah. Well, we can work on it. Maximus. He might want to focus on the playing versus the facial hair. I don't think he focuses.
He doesn't need to. So he needs to focus on the coaching. He can control. Those were really difficult games that I would put up on the screen if I was Justin Jefferson. Maximus, start doing some play designs and really being a good leader in the locker room. I call this the Trojan horse. The 49ers, 12-5 last year, 5-1-1 score games. They missed Brock Purdy for a number of weeks. Oh, they didn't miss him. Seven different weeks. Not with the Mack attack back there selling his body for everything. Ricky Pearsall missed a bunch of weeks again. George Kittle missed a bunch of weeks again.
Brandon Ayuk missed the entire George season. Oh, that's right. He got hurt right away. Yeah, he missed weeks. He got hurt in week one after he gave us a touchdown. He was Jason's my guy. Yeah. And it was still a good pick. Missed weeks two through six. Yeah. And then he came back and dominated for the rest of the season until he got injured again. Yeah. This is part of his story. And it's, here's a little hint. And I know this from being 42. It happens more, not less over time. That's the, that's the biggest concern. And when you come back from a major injury as well, you're compensating for that injury.
Mentally, physically. You just hope George Kittle can stay healthy once he gets healthy. Well, I mean, we just talked about Joe Mixon in the news. It's like if Joe Mixon had that surgery at 22, his career is probably not over. I mean, sometimes when you're older and you get injured more and how you deal with injuries suck more because man, it sucks being old. This is the eighth easiest schedule for the 49ers, according to Warren Sharp. I mean, they're, they're not facing a first place schedule despite a 12 and five record because of the tough division. They were, as they always are, really dealing with major injury issues all year long.
Still put together 12 wins. A testament to Shanahan. Clay Kubiak working with Shanahan on the offense. They were number one in third down conversion efficiency. Red zone offense, EPA per play on third downs. More shout outs to Kyle Shanahan for what he does. They did throw a bunch of picks. I mean, that was one of the things I think that stood out to me about like the Brock Purdy range of outcomes. Let's talk about Purdy because I do agree. I see glory in the heavens for Brock Purdy. This is a player that I think could throw for 4,500 yards and a surprisingly high amount
of touchdowns. It could be like 4,400 yard, 37 touchdown season for Brock Purdy. That is in the range of outcomes. I agree. But two things have been a problem for him. One potential problem is just injury because he's been injured a lot. This has been a problem for him. He's the, you know, you talk about Mac Jones playing through. It cost him the entire season in the playoff injury. And then he missed a bunch of games last year. The second part that concerns me is how they have to manage his gunslinger abilities. Because if he turns the ball over, takes sacks, is a liability, this team is too good in other
areas that I think they would pull the reins in a little bit. Do you agree? I mean, he, in his short time, nine games, it was still a two to one touchdown to interception ratio. So I think you just kind of live with the interceptions. You know, as three years as the main starter, I'm not counting the halfway in the rookie year, it's been 11, 12, and 10. Like, he'll throw double-digit interceptions, but he is, like, he gets it. He gets what Kyle Shanahan is wanting to do, and he's able to execute on that. I really like Brock Purdy as someone who can surprise as a late-round quarterback,