THE UNOFFICIALFOOTBALLERSFAN ARCHIVE↗Transcript links use the exact YouTube video’s clock. Machine transcripts can contain errors.
Exactly one week before August 1, the hosts call the return to five episodes a week 'the beginning of the beginning' and treat the final divisional breakdown as another signal that full fantasy season has arrived.
The show's longest-named Slack channel, camp-highlights-and-hype-train, collects camp reports. The hosts require another side, repeated reliable reporting, extra attention to negative team news, and the original quote rather than a hyperbolic headline; one blurb may start a little train, but never a bullet train.
Ben Sinnott missing PFF's top 32 makes Mike's workday a coal-mine shift, closes Sinnott's government for an unapproved budget, and confirms the loyalty has become a cult classic. Mike still believes an opportunity could work, but now openly values every play as future show material.
The hosts extend NFC West greatness by association to the production booth, then note that its three Ducers match the Cardinals' three wins. The published video lands the joke with a live cut to exactly three humans beneath the DUCERS ALLEY sign.
Jason insists Kyren Williams will remain an RB1, another host takes the negative side, and the claim goes onto the Water Bet board with the show's real green bumper. The argument escalates into a fictional house co-sign: Jason supposedly needs Kyren's checks to keep coming, and the accusation returns when touchdown odds favor Kyren.
Kyren Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Gino Smith are compiled as Jason's My Guys, but Jason says he need not make them official because everyone already knows. Gino in particular is a free bet: competence is a huge win, failure merely preserves a funny joke, and Jason openly loves being associated with the bit.
A Brosmer believer upgrades Max to Maximus, and the panel decides the grander name would change both their opinion and his play. Maximus requires a large Viking beard rather than his current mustache, soul patch, and beard arrangement; he is then ordered to design plays and lead the locker room through a Trojan horse.
Matt Pingrey confirms Falcon is exactly 30, so the hosts use his birth as the boundary for noting only one other team opened under a four-win projection in that span. The Cardinals' number fell from four and a half, their fourth quarters were minus 55, and the hosts gleefully predict repeated obliteration because criticizing their own team grants immunity.
Andy, Jason, and Mike mark August 1 as the beginning of the beginning: five episodes a week and full fantasy-football season. Their exceptionally long camp-highlights-and-hype-train Slack channel supplies a useful philosophy—seek the other side, wait for a repeated drumbeat rather than boarding a bullet train, take negative team news seriously, and read the original quote instead of a hyperbolic blurb. Mike's Ben Sinnott loyalty survives a PFF snub as a government shutdown and a cult classic. A live cut to exactly three human producers gives the Cardinals' three wins a matching Ducers Alley punch line. Jason then defends Kyren Williams as an RB1, triggers the real Water Bet bumper, and is accused of needing Kyren's checks because the player co-signed his house; Kyren joins Gino Smith and Sam LaPorta on Jason's unofficial, already-obvious My Guys list. The panel upgrades Max Brosmer to Maximus, prescribes a Viking beard, and imagines a Trojan-horse play design. Finally, Matt Pingrey confirms he is 30, letting the hosts measure the Cardinals' near-record-low projection from Falcon's birth and gleefully dump on their own team.
What a year for them. They won their final seven games and then ran all the way through the playoffs. The Los Angeles Rams. So what? The division had 39 wins. Well, yeah. The Rams were 12-5, just to give you the numbers. And San Francisco was 12-5. Whoa, whoa, whoa. No. Totality. We're just saying, what an incredible division. And you are lucky if your team is a part of it. I'm just. Oh. That's what I'm saying. Oh. That's a nice spin. To be the best. It's the opposite. You got to beat the best. It's like, not guilty by association, but great by association.
Correct. Yes. You must be good. Oh, you're part of the NFC West. Like the Ducers feel. Yes. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Like if it's like Rams and Seahawks and 49ers. And then the Ducers. You're part of this. Yeah. You're part of it, too. Like all three of you. You're darn right we are. You three Cardinals are in the division. You got, hey, three Ducers, three wins. That's what the Cardinals got. Happy for you guys. So 36 of the 39 wins came from three juggernaut teams. It's wild because. 14, 12, 12, three. Well, they, they, the Cardinals contributed significantly to those 14, 12, and 12 numbers.
I will say this, too. Like, we'll talk about Seattle first. But, by the way, this is the second division in the last 25 years that sent three teams to the divisional round of the playoffs. And going into the year, it's looking promising. Oh, for sure. But I, I think the thing that gets lost on me a little bit is, like, Seattle won the Super Bowl. Seattle and the Rams played a big time game at the end of the year to define the winner of the division. But there's San Francisco at 12 and five. Kind of, you know, I don't know.
To me, they, they took a backseat in the press category for last year. With injuries and things that they dealt with. And yet they still, like, normally they are very extreme. They're either dominant or they disappeared. The Shanahan era has always been that way. They're, they're really, really good. And when things go bad, they shut it down and get a high draft pick and lose a lot of games. Amazingly, last year, things went very poorly for them on the injury front. And they still won a ton of games. I mean, Christian McCaffrey staying healthy was enough. Shanahan there is great.
It really is a juggernaut of a division. The only good news for those three powerhouses is they each get two free wins. Yes, they do. Yeah. And yes, they do. The Seahawks were 14 and three franchise record in wins. The projected win total before the year was seven and a half. They nearly doubled it. Six and three and one score games. Super healthy team. We know it's hard to repeat. It's hard to come off of a Super Bowl victory and deliver in the same way. But right now, their projected win total is 10 and a half. And they're favored in their first 10 games.
And 14 of 17. That is tied with the Baltimore Ravens' second best odds to win the Super Bowl. Yeah. You know, one of the things I didn't remember before preparing for the show, obviously, the Seahawks had a good offense and a good defense. They're the Super Bowl champions. But they were number two in points per game. When I think of the most prolific scoring offenses, even last year in the NFL, I don't know that I would have, from memory, put the Seahawks in the top five. They're good. But that's why you had the number one wide receiver in JSN and a lot of great games from
Darnold as a streamer. But you look at the offense this year, and there are some big changes. I mean, first of all, this was a team that won a lot by running the ball. And you lost your Super Bowl MVP, Kenneth Walker. You don't have Charbonnet there. So you're relying on a rookie. And then you also lose Kubiak, the mastermind of this offense, who really was a mastermind. I mean, what he did last year schematically was as elite as anyone, as Shanahan, as McVay. I mean, Kubiak was incredible in not only his play design, but his play call throughout. And so you've got a new play caller.
You've got a much weakened running game, personnel-wise. Could be. Should be. They were the lowest pass rate in football. So their points per game were number two, but they were the lowest pass rate, to your point of, like, how much they leaned on. Like, the two main running backs that they had are not going to be their backs this year to start the season, at least. Their new offensive coordinator's name is Brian Flurry. He did work with Sam Darnold in San Francisco in 2023, but that's a variable in play. Now, the thing that's nice about them, and I think the backbone of being favored in 14 of 17 games, is the number one scoring defense.
But I do think it leaves us a little bit vulnerable on the fantasy front. Darnold had 14 picks. He had six lost fumbles. He wasn't perfect. JSN, I feel like we all understand, that was a very efficient season. JSN was perfect. So what do you mean when you say that? Because people need to understand how special a year it was for JSN. So he's the first player to lead the NFL in receiving yards on a bottom three pass rate team, a 73% catch rate, led the NFL in yards on deep passes. Turning on the highlights on, you know, when you're watching Monday night, whatever, highlights.
And every week was JSN with a perfect touch pass and a wide open JSN. And it was just truly perfect. And it can't always run that hot. Yeah, I mean, there's a couple of things that can't really run that hot. One, if you are over 100 receptions, the idea that you are 15 plus yards per reception, nearly impossible. He did, which is why he led the league in receiving yardage. You can't project that to repeat. It would be very, very difficult. Not even if Darnold has a great year and JSN has a great year, which they should by all accounts.
I mean, JSN is elite, you know, a top five wide receiver in the NFL, but the best of the best, the best of the best don't usually do that. So you would expect a regression to normal elite numbers. And then he also had double digit touchdowns, which is something that is not always the stickiest stat. So when I look at the, you know, the presumed top three guys at wide receiver by ADP, you got Chase, you got Puka, and you got JSN. JSN, obviously all three are awesome. The only one that I worry about having any regression is JSN, simply because there's a team that doesn't want to pass the ball a lot.
They lost their incredible offensive coordinator and everything clicked right. So if you just get, you know, he catches a very nice 69% of his passes. Well, that's, that's going down. Sure. It's, and this is not to say he's not worth his draft price. Price, we're just saying that in the range of outcomes, don't just expect another domination. I'll give you for an example. Yeah, you could have a really good year, but be the wide receiver five or six or seven. Jamar Chase, as a rookie, caught 81 passes for 18 yards a catch. Since then, 12, 12.2, 13.4, 11.3 last year.
And he's awesome. Jamar Chase had a magical rookie season and then defenses just said, we're not going to allow, we're not going to allow you to do that. And so we'll see how teams adjust against JSN. Well, and the thing is, is without the running game that they had with Charbonnet and Ken Bone. Right. Now defenses can actually adjust for that because with this defense and running game that they had last year, I mean, that's part of what opened up JSN down the field. Or prices. Yeah, I was going to say. Prices were the price of admission. Yeah. I mean, the Ken Walker thing is, is funny because to start the year, we're not going to have both these guys.
But Ken Walker was not a dominator week in and week out last year. That was not the storyline of Ken Walker. This was a shared backfield. Both guys struggle with efficiency at times. There's a world where like Jadarian Price can come in and be 90% of what Ken Walker was in season. If Charbonnet gets healthy, we'll see how healthy he is to start the year. But, you know, just coming back to JSN, he was also the number one most targeted player in football. 36% target share. Will that stay the same under Fleury? Probably close to it, but they also didn't have any Rashid Shaheed integration into the offense.
He was a midseason acquisition. They're going to be doing that. Torrey Horton got hurt and was out for the year. Arroyo didn't get involved. It could get spread around a little bit more. He could be at 30. I will say this. The names you just said that you're like, oh, they could get better. Those are still the only names there. I think that he will have one of, if not the highest target share in the league again this year. That is one of those where, yeah, I mean, it could go down to 30, but 30 is incredible. That's like a guaranteed wide receiver one.
And so the depth chart there, I mean, you could also say maybe Shaheed is more involved, but Cooper Cup is older. They said they're going to involve Shaheed a lot more. I mean, that was just something in the offseason, the coaching staff. So I'd be curious to see if we can get another fantasy value out of an offense that isn't a high pass rate. But that's something I'd be paying attention to. Jadarian Price. So let's talk about this running back room from a fantasy perspective. If you go and you watch the tape of them drafting this guy, I've seen two videos in the last week that I want to get your thoughts on.
I know you weren't both huge Jadarian Price fans coming out of college. I was. I liked what I saw. To me, it was one of those situations where you were stuck, right? Like there was just no world where he was going to get a heavy workload when you share a backfield with Jeremiah Love. So I don't think we know what his true potential is. And I think that's why teams had him sliding in as the number two back. That being said, the draft video where they take him in the first round and they talk to him on the phone and like what their plans are for him.
I thought that that was an interesting video where they're just, you know, they're very, very excited to get. Let's not underestimate what a first round pick means. That's all. You're the defending champs. You use a first round pick on the running back spot. And the second one was just an interview with, um, it was Ian Rapoport and another reporter I'm forgetting, but they were talking to him about workload and what he's ready for and what the team thinks he's going to be ready for. One quote that stuck out to me from Jadarian Price was, this is what I've been waiting for my whole life.
Sure. And he was speaking about workload. He still said, Hey, if they want me for 30, I'm good for 30. They want me for 15. I'm good for 15. But he did speak in a way that was like, Hey, I'm ready to take on whatever they asked me to do. If that's to be the every down back to start the year, what could we get out of him? Cause I feel like the range of outcomes is everything from rookie sensation on a team that runs the ball the most to disappointing committee back. Yeah. This is a, an interesting pick this year in fantasy, because I think where he's going in drafts right now, I'm not a big fan of Jadarian Price.
This is a player. I mean, as far as for what he, he's not bad, but he, he did not strike me as a first round NFL draft pick at all. He has no production profile, uh, never had a thousand rushing yards. Granted he was behind Jeremiah love. So you can kind of forgive some of that, but the receiving profile is really, really tough to imagine, um, a player who caught like five passes this year, four passes this year, not this game to come in and be a three down back in the NFL. I, that's a leap that I can't really get myself to take.
However, he's not that expensive and you're right. This is a good offense that wants to run the ball that is invested in him. So could he go out there and have 1200 yards on the ground and eight touchdowns? Yes, he could. And so I'm fine taking the shot on him for where he is right now. Now I do think come August, he won't be where he is right now because rookies always fly up later. And there, it will be a point where I just like other options, other wide receivers, even other running backs that I'm willing to take a shot on more because my percentage chance of him being that breakout elite, um, fantasy winner is probably closer to, you know, closer to the 30 side than the 70 side.
Mike, last year, charbs who was not sensational was the RB 24 in this timeshare. Walker was the RB 22. Jadarian price being drafted as RB 27. He's going as the RB 27 and in best ball right now is the RB 26. So this isn't a situation where the markets have, uh, a gap that needs to close like we have with, uh, Devante Smith. Truly the biggest question is will like, it was the timeshare Mike McDonald saying, I want fresh running back. I want fresh legs out there cycle between them. This guy is this, this guy is this, or was that coops?
Was that a, would the coopsie Kenneth Walker and say, you can, this is what I want you to do. So if we just, we don't have that information and you kind of got to make your, your own gut call here of what you think we'll do. But the price is, the price is perfectly fine. So best ball right now, like I know you guys are your believers in the town. I believe in the town. I hate the situation though. It's like Judkins. Judkins is going just a couple running back spots above Jadarian price price. Price outscoring Judkins to me is not like, that's not wild or, or silly to think that that's going to happen.
So I'm in on the situation. There's a lot, you know, if it's similar running back production to last year, that's a lot of fantasy points to go around. The favorite in the first 10, that'll be interesting to see literally if they hit the ground running. And it's like price. The, the, the person in the way right now is George Helani and he has his supporters, but he's an undraft. He was an undrafted free agent. He's 26 years old. It's like, I mean, he's, he's irrelevant. He is irrelevant. He's so in the way that they spent a first round pick on a rookie running back.
And that's what I mean of, of the situation says this should be no problem. Jadarian price should, should walk in and when the, within the first few weeks be the three down guy. Jadarian price is, is going to have the vast majority of work before Charbonnet gets there. They just don't have, uh, I don't believe Helani is good enough. Helani played 5% of the snaps last year. Uh, 2% of the snaps in his rookie season. Emmanuel Wilson is still there as well, but, uh, he's, his name hasn't been popping up. All right. The Rams, we've got to move on. Last year, 12 and five, they were just four and five and one score games, which another way to say that is their five losses were by one score.
They were in every game. They were dominant since McVay McVay's been there. They have hit their over in terms of their win total in all but two seasons. And he's been there since 2017. So they're just great with Sean McVay on a regular basis. They are favored in all but one game this year. They had the offseason splash of adding the incredible miles. Garrett will probably get a news blurb at some point that Aaron Donald is coming back. I believe he's going to. Do you remember this super? I cannot forget the super team. The Eagles super team. Yeah. When they added all those offseason pieces.
Yeah. And they were just supposed to be unbeatable, but then they weren't. Yeah. Except. Not that the Rams can't do that. When the super team is the, is two Hall of Famers. Yeah. On the defensive line. Yeah. Oh, dude. You would. If you have Aaron Donald. And I don't. I. Who knows what Aaron Donald has left in the tank. Enough. After being. And you know. That's where it goes. It's plenty. With Garrett. You. You don't have to blitz. Ever. You got to. Ever. You got to. You got to double team. Both of them. It's like. All right, guys. Let everyone else through.
Just. I don't know. I don't know how you play defense against that. So. They were the number one scoring team. Yards. Points per game. Their defense was 10th in points per game. Given up. That's going to. Most likely improve. They're going to be a force. You know. Can you run as hot as their offense did last year? Again. That's one of the questions. They won't need to as much. If the defense is that great. But it's Sean McVay. Like. There are certain offensive play callers. They're not going out there and laying down. They're not going out there and trying to.
You know. Our defense is going to win this game. We're not going to worry about it. They go out there to break records. They go out there to. To set the tone for the league. This was a dominant team last year. And they were number one in yards per game. And had a good defense. So. You know. I don't feel like they're as complicated. Of a. Start sit situation for people. Or a drafting situation. Like Puka. Like the Puka versus JSN question. Is fun. I mean. You get to make that decision. I like Stafford more. I like McVay more. Than.
Darnold. And. Fleury. So. I have Puka higher. Yeah. I mean. I think that Puka. Should be higher. You've got a lot of years of McVay's system. And. A better quarterback. So. You know. To me. Puka is the. The safer player. And then. The amazing thing is. Puka has always been. A dominant fantasy asset. Without the touchdowns coming. And he isn't the type of guy. Who can't get touchdowns. You know. If. If you look at like. Zay Flowers. And. And Puka Nakua. You're like. Okay. Well those guys haven't really dominated. At touchdowns. I don't think Zay is going to. Puka did last year.