Top 10 QB Rankings + “My Guy” Retry, Preseason Insight

Baker may feel to be great. We all want it to be great. I believe he is great. Well, for fantasy, though. There's a difference. You can be great as an NFL quarterback. You do not have to be a top five fantasy guy. Here's the issue with Baker. That chart we brought up last year of investing this high in a quarterback. You're shrinking the range of outcomes that will be positive for your team when you spend that pick on Baker. He's my fifth quarterback.

He's going ADP as the fifth quarterback. Is that what you're saying? Yes, he is. I still won't take him there, though, in a single quarterback league just based off of... We're playing fantasy. It's a game of probability. However, last year, once he was the starter, he was averaging 271 yards and two full touchdowns per game. That's 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns. And they added in a generational, an elite wide receiver in Odo Beckham, who...

When Beckham was on the field for Eli, Eli's passer completion percentage went up three full points. I mean, Beckham is a huge deal to a quarterback. You have to project that. You have to project Beckham making the difference because last year only 14% of his games were in that 25 plus category. I think it was two times. And he had a number of bust games. He busted 50% of the time where he was under 15 fantasy points. So you're projecting the impact of Beckham, Freddie Kitchens' offense for the whole season.

The growth of year two. Offseason as the starter. But losing, you know, losing Duke Johnson, I don't know how much that really matters, but it matters a little bit because he caught 60, 70 balls. So I just think we just have a different range of outcomes for Baker. Yeah, early, early in the off season, when he was like still a ninth round pick, he was one of my favorite guys. Because you're taking the shot that he can go Pat Mahomes. And, you know, once he's up where he's at now, it's like, well,

Some of that has to happen just to get the value of the draft pick. So I'm kind of out on Baker for the value. I still see an outcome where he finishes the number one fantasy quarterback and just explodes. But I think more realistically, he is a good fantasy quarterback, a top 10 fantasy quarterback who's being drafted at a level where you really have to have him be elite this year just to make the pick a quality pick. That's it. All right.

Number nine. Cam Newton being drafted is the QB10 right now. One of Jason's my guys being drafted at the end of the eighth round. Last year struggled with serious shoulder injury. His best friend was Christian McCaffrey through that rough stretch. And then they basically sat him down. I mean, the numbers just went down, down, down from week 13 on 15, 10, 4 and then didn't play the last two games of the season.

probably, I mean, he's in, golf, Wentz, Newton, they're in that category of incredible values at the end of fantasy draft. Yeah, I mean, if you take a look at, so we're just talking about Baker, right? Last year, they basically played the same amount of games, two at the end of the year lost for Cam, two at the beginning of the year lost for Baker, although Cam was playing hurt for a lot of the end of that season. You look at those top ten performances, those actual week winning for fantasy.

quarterback performances, Baker with four, Cam with eight in the top ten, and that was even though he played hurt a lot of that. Similar to you, Mike, I've made my argument on the My Guy show. If he plays a 16-game season, he's...

better than the quarterback three on average. He gives you monster, monster week winning performances. And with DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel coming into year two, Greg Olson back in the ultimate safety valve in Christian McCaffrey, I just really like his late, you know, this is one. Year three for Samuel, year two for DJ Moore. Yes. If it was, if it was Cam Newton where he usually is going, then I would be off. But since he's in the ninth round.

But you like him more than Lamar? You like him more than Kyla Murray. You guys both have them ranked higher than those guys. Do you imagine? I mean, I imagine both. Who do you have rushing for more total yardage? Cam Newton or Kyle Murray? Oh, between, oh, I thought you were going to go Lamar. The answer is Lamar Jackson. Yeah, Lamar. That's why I didn't go Lamar. I know that we all agree Lamar will run like crazy. I have Cam Newton down for 550. 55.

rushing yards uh kailer murray 500 and 75 oh come on jerks 575 so i have calmerie down for slightly more yards but i do think the passing game i mean we'll see yeah we'll see what happens i i um you can see a hundred percent of our

2019 stat projections on a player by player basis. In the ultimate draft kit, you can plug in your custom scoring in the ultimate draft kit to see how the projections change based on your league format. Right now, Brooks, these are our consensus by six point passing touchdown, right? Yes, sir. And there's a pretty big difference in the rankings when you look at leagues that are four point versus six point per passing touchdown at the quarterback position. For example, Josh Allen is my seven overall quarterback in standard scoring.

Josh Allen is my 17 overall quarterback in six-point scoring. When you drop down to four-point, the rushing yardage takes over. It's disproportionate. Yeah, it's more valuable. And on top of that, rushing touchdowns, I mean, that's an extra two-point. Yes, because you're getting six for the rushing touchdown versus four for the passing. Which, of course, that makes sense. Yep. All right, number 10, Drew Breeze. We'll round it out with Drew.

Number 10 on my rankings, Jason at 10, Mike at 8. You know, there's always the possibility that Drew Breeze throws for more touchdowns than we expect. It's in there. He's been a top 10 finisher in fantasy for all of the years that the consistency chart allows for. From 2009 through 2018, he's been a top 10 guy, including, you know, the early days it was, you know.

Two, one, two. But over the last five years, six, six, three, nine, eight, I don't see him, you know, for a guy that doesn't rush the ball at all. Yes, he has his little sneaky touchdowns, though. He does get those. Very sneaky. But it's hard to see Breeze being, I feel like he's just a little bit better like Philip Rivers right now in terms of fantasy. Consistent.

can give you a huge game, can also give you a game like week 15, five points, week 13, seven points, week eight, six points. Because the rushing numbers for Camara and company, they can take over that game and the defense is really good. So I think that's the kind of picture for Breeze. Yeah, I mean, the reality is you look at 2017 and 2018 and you see.

A very similar Drew Brees both years, the difference being last season, he had more games where the touchdowns happened to come through the air and they were his and they weren't rushed in versus, you know, 2017, he only had four weeks where he was a quarterback one.

which is like brutally bad. Yet he still finished the season as a quarterback one just because he's never going to finish as like the quarterback 25 on a week. That just, Drew Breeze is too good for that. He has enough yardage, enough offense behind him to where he's going to be. The yardage has been dropping. So it's one of those things where I'm never excited about Drew Breeze. I can't imagine being in on him. He's got such a.

great name in, you know, usual leagues. You think Hall of Fame, unbelievable fantasy superstar Drew Brees, I want him on my roster. So he gets drafted a little bit higher than I'm ever going to be willing to draft a guy who doesn't rush the ball, doesn't get those free fantasy points for quarterbacks. So you've got to have him throwing.

A lot of yards, a lot of touchdowns, and there's just more exciting upside guys. I just, when I look at quarterback, all I care about is who has the chance for monstrous weak winning performances. And even though Drew Breeze, look, he had four top three performances last season, which is really good, I hesitate on Breeze. His two lowest passing yardage output seasons of his career in New Orleans.

The past two years. Things have changed there. Granted, he only played 15 games last year, but that was his first sub-4,000-yard season since he played football in San Diego. Jared Cook could help things for Drew Breeze. Could. Smith, year two, healthy Ted Ginn. There are some, you know, I'm sure he will have a handful of games.

Like he did last year. There were six games where he was 25 plus fantasy points. Those were games where like, oh my gosh, Drew Breeze is Drew Breeze. So the ping pong can happen to greater extremes with Drew Breeze. A couple quick questions as we close things out. Biggest bust potential of the top 10 guys we mentioned. Who has the biggest chance to fully, let's say you're in a super flex. Let's say you have taken a shot on a quarterback. Maybe you've got a steal on one of them, a couple rounds below ADP. Who's got the biggest bust potential of that top 10?

Of our top 10 rankings? We already know Jason. Well, yeah, I mean, you're going to say Matt Ryan in the sense of... I'm going to say that you're going to say Matt Ryan. Sure. I, you know, would he be a bust, I guess, where he's being drafted right now? I don't know. Andrew Luck is the guy that comes to mind with the injury. But I guess I'll go with Matt Ryan for rankings sake. I think it's probably Baker because he's being drafted at QB5.

But I'll throw Carson Wins out there. It's a possibility that Wins bust on the basis of maybe he really can't run for 350 yards anymore. So I'll throw him out there. And it's not that I don't like him, but it is Wins because he's not even inside my top 10 right now. Okay. Are there any of these top 10 guys most likely to be on your team? Is it Jared Gough? Cam Newton. Carson Wins. Booty scooting. Cam Newton. All right. I think that is it unless you guys want to, you got anything else to add.

I don't. I've given everything I had. You've given everything on this fine Tuesday slash Monday? Brooks, do you have anything to add? Nah. Oh, he came back from under the door. He slithered back in. We want to thank our studio sponsor Pristine Auction. A Lev Bell signed New York Jets jersey yesterday, $72 at pristine auction.com. Use the registration code ballers. And you can save five bucks on your first sports memorabilia.

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