Top 10 QB Rankings + “My Guy” Retry, Preseason Insight

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Quarterbacks. Check this out, Jay. Apparently we were doing shows in February. Wait. Yeah, you were there. Now, when was, in this stretch of, this, this stretch that we've been doing shows, when was that first show? The first show ever? Since our last break. We don't ever stop. Oh, man. You mean we? Years and years and years. Years straight of doing this? Why do you think I look the way I look, Jack? I'm just. A little disheveled. Just just.

torn down. We did a shocking stats episode in February with some stats about quarterbacks. And before we talk about them today, I want to lay the groundwork for a few of the reasons why we believe in drafting them later in your drafts. So in 2017, we only saw 17 total quarterback performances of 30 plus fantasy points in four-point leagues from weeks 1 through 16. In 2018,

We equaled that total in just four weeks. That is an amazing 33 weeks of 30 plus fantasy points, double the previous year. What is that saying? It's saying there are a lot of quarterbacks putting up big numbers in fantasy football. Kyle, the Borgogan himself, our editor, pulled up an incredible chart. I want to illustrate what happened last year at the quarterback position. This is awesome. This should illuminate for those of you in one quarterback leagues. Last year, there was only one quarterback.

in the top 12 ADP that ended up finishing above his average draft position in finish. And that was Andrew Luck. He was drafted as the QB8 last year, finished as the QB4. On average, the rest of the guys in that top 12, they ended up finishing seven spots lower on average than where you drafted them. I would say, just going through the chart real quick, basically you were happy or you were okay if you took to Sean Watson.

Drew Breeze, sort of, because we've always talked about, you know, Drew Breeze. Watson was taking it as the number two quarterback ended the year at number five. Drew Breeze was six and finished at eight. Andrew Luck, of course, had the positive return. And that's just, that's the end of the list. Right. I mean, that's it. Because if you drafted Aaron Rogers as the clear quarterback one.

You're very disappointed. You spent that capital when he finishes as the quarterback seven. You have, you know, he's not even a top six guy. And you take Brady and Russell Wilson and a lot of these guys early, they didn't pan out. But you want to know who did? A lot of the late round quarterbacks, the Pat Mahomes, you know, who now clearly has to be the number one quarterback you draft, right? Wrong.

Yeah, no, I still say it's right. I'm taking my home's number one. But yeah, I mean, last year, the thing is, is you're not drafting a guy that high in ADP and hoping that they end up, if they end up at 10 or 11, you've lost. You've lost in a big way because there's 12 that start on a weekly basis. Last year in particular was very, very kind to the late round strategy. It always is, but last year in particular was a banner year for the strategy.

Also, jump from 2017 to 2018. In 2017, there were six quarterbacks that completed 65% or more of their passes. Do you know how many there were last year? I do, because I'm looking at it. 20. 20. And that's with eight games played as the qualifier. So you're just seeing an increase in total production at the position doesn't mean that you can't, you know, you're not smart with your quarterback position. Just means that.

If you invest the high draft capital pick on a quarterback, they have to deliver. On average last year, they're not delivering to where you drafted them. You know, Patrick Mahomes, we said, if you could book it, if you could say 50 touchdowns, I got it. It's in the bag. I'm probably taking Patrick Mahomes in the second round. That's what I would probably do that. If you knew you were getting what you got last year, he deserves to be not only the first quarterback taken off the board, but at his ADP or even better, completely agree.

probably not going to happen based on, you know, the history of the NFL. And then for those of you that are playing in two quarterback leagues, we'll talk about this as we go along. But I think it's important because a lot of people out there play Superflex and they always want to know, okay, you say late round quarterback, but does that apply in Superflex? Because things change. You don't have 12 quarterbacks. Supply demand. But the strategy does not change when it comes to tier-based drafting. For me, so I'll share my strategy.

I like to get three quarterbacks in a two-quarterback league that are later guys. You know, if I could end up with a James Winston, a Dak Prescott, and then, you know, the third being like an Andy Dalton or someone super late, I am going to have good starters week in and week out based on matchups or, you know, being able to play the right two out of those three. But if you think about where those guys get drafted versus where all the other quarterbacks are getting drafted super early in your drafts,

you're going to get a lot of other good running backs and wide receivers while you bypass. All right. Number one on our consensus quarterback rankings, Patrick Mahomes. His current average draft position is the middle of the third round. Last year, we know what happened. He was kind of good. He was the MVP of football. So not much to say. Pat Thorman tweeted,

the weapons at Patrick Mahomes' disposal, and they're 40 times. They're very fast. Mikul Hardman had a 4-3-340-yard dash. He saw him score on an end-round, a Tyreek-like play. And the thing about that – Holy crap. The thing about that end around, since we are talking Patrick Mahomes, it was one of those takeaways where I wonder – we don't have enough NFL data historically on the tap pass that has become popularized over the last few years where it basically – The handoff becomes a –

passing attempt, which is stupid, but it is clearly not going away. That play, that in the round handoff, was actually a tap pass. That was a passing touchdown. That would be a passing touchdown for Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, we saw Tyreek do it. He has a 434. Sammy Watkins, a 4-4-3. Damian Williams, a 4-4-5. Those guys are fast. Yes. And they can all catch. And this offense is going to be great. So does he throw for 50? Probably not. Three players have done it ever. Yes.

At the same time, you guys saw the jump from 2017 to 2018 in production at the quarterback position. The league is changing, scoring, things like that. So could he throw for 40 and tap for 10? Ooh. Get back up to that 50 number. Yeah, not likely. He actually slowed, his pace over the second half wasn't as strong as his first half, but he was still an absolute dominator. So look, what is there to say?

Patrick Mahomes, number one on the list. He is the number one quarterback. Regression is coming. But I, even though historically speaking, the probability of getting even over the 40 plus touchdown mark is low, of any of the guys in the field, you would bet on Patrick Mahomes. Do you have his touchdown total that you projected him for in your head? I can pull that up. Let me.

I just got to switch to the actual team. Because I'm wondering, you know, you said regression is coming. I have him at 38. 38 touchdown? Yes. Jason, do you have yours? Yeah, I have Patrick Mahomes right now throwing for 42. Yeah, I got him at 41. So, yeah, it's going to be fine. He's going to be, unless it gets hurt, that offense is going to be dynamic. They're big play. You know, you might play in a league with bonuses for long touchdowns. I don't know if you're going to see more of those.

than in the Kansas City office. Yeah, someone sent me a question, and it was, how high do you take Mahomes in this system? It's a one quarterback, but the bonus point structure was just insanity where if games over 300 yards, you get this huge bonus. Games where a 40-plus yard touchdown pass, you get this huge bonus, and it was like, man, I guess I move him up, but even then I'm still not going to reach for him in the third round.

Aaron Rogers number two on our consensus rankings. Jason has him at three. Mike and I have him at two. You know, it's been a little while since we had the 2009 to 2012 Aaron Rogers where he was the first second, first second quarterback. 2014 he was number one. 2016 he was number one. Last two years banged up in 2017. And then last year finished at six. And hurt last year as well. He was hurt and played through it.

I mean, they threw the ball a ton last year, but the efficiency for Aaron Rogers wasn't there. You still had some monster games here and there, but it wasn't really vintage Aaron Rogers. So an investment in Rogers is an investment in him returning to what he's been. It's an investment in that. It's also an investment in him throwing in the red zone. This has been my main takeaway.

from Aaron Rodgers season last year where you look back the past four years, he averages a pace of at least 100 attempts inside the red zone. And last year, that dropped to 64. And he was still the quarterback six on the season. The offense was in disarray aside from Devante Adams. Geronimo Allison started. He was the number two guy. And through those first four games, I mean, Allison was averaging five for 72 in those games.

It was solid. He could count on a wide receiver too. But then Allison went down and it was rookies who, they looked overmatched. But now with another off-season and with this same core, I think Rogers is in a much safer place to return to dominance. If he were to return to dominance, then where you're drafting him right now in the sixth round, which is way later than what you had been drafting,

I think is a good value. It's always been in the past. What round do you draft Aaron Rogers? I remember year after year, it's like, well, if he gets to the fifth or sixth, maybe. So obviously right now, his average draft positions in the six, I find myself not believing he's going to return to dominance. I am actually quite afraid of Aaron Rogers. Look, he's got the best, I think, receiving court he's had in a...

since he lost Jordy because the year two Marquez and Equanimia St. Brown, Geronimo in the slot is probably at this point as reliable as Randall Cobb was and he's got Devante Adams. But, you know, it's one of those things where he's 35 years old. And I think Tom Brady is ruining, you know, Brady and Breeze are really saying like, look, you can play to their 40. No problem.

But Aaron Rogers has always been one of those kind of mobile guys. Get out of the pocket. Extend to play. Bomb it deep. And I'm not saying, I'm not calling for the end of Rogers here. But I am saying I am lacking confidence that he's going to go back and be that guy who with Jordy was averaging 40 touchdowns in and out of a season since 2014. Since 2014, so this is what, the last five years, his 16 game pace. I know he's missed a lot of games in that. So I'm saying 16 game pace.

His full season pace is only 34 passing touchdowns a season, which is good. That's very good number. That's still very good. But that's not Aaron Rogers' dominance when he finishes as the number one quarterback. That's what I'm saying. So is he going to bounce back to that? I mean, outside of Devante Adams, I would probably argue that, sure, we're anticipating players to step up. But, I mean, it's hard to say that you guarantee MVS is going to step up. You guarantee Allison's going to be consistent. You guarantee that Equanimius will be able to make a player. Jimmy Graham and is.