Week 16 Waivers + Playoff Pickups, Monty Fallout - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/17

say, hey, James is our guy right after the game. More often than not, it's not that guy. So I'm, you know, that can help the running game. I think Dorian Thompson can help the running game. Oh, I think it would be monumentally disastrous for Jerome Ford if DTR was the quarterback. I don't think it'll help the running game in the slightest. I don't think the numbers back that up. If you're saying help the running game as in. His yards per carry is higher, sure. If you're talking helps the running game as far as total yards, total offensive output, total touchdown opportunities, no way. I disagree. I disagree. So you think touchdown opportunities are higher with Dorian Thompson Robinson than with James Winston? No, I think they're pretty equal. Because you've been putting something in your coffee, young man, if you believe that. It's not cough syrup. James Winston was on base for 700 plus attempts.

the offensive system and the focus on the running game, which is what made the Browns running backs are valuable for years, was predicated on them not throwing the ball 700 times a year. And it's not like James Winston. I mean, what did they score, six points or something last week? I mean, they have not been moving the ball down into scoring range. So. To me, I'm indifferent on the total touchdown situation there. And I think they hand the ball off. I think it's a game plan built not around Jerry Judy, but built around Jerome Ford. And that's all I'm saying. I'm not saying that the offense will score more points, but I'm saying that he'll get more opportunities than he would have with Winston. Yeah, I understand and I believe that you are correct when it comes to rushing opportunities. I value the passing game work from Ford a little bit more and the scoring opportunities.

Regardless, either one that's there, Jerome Ford should be a top 24 running back this week. I just believe that the total reception count and touchdowns would be higher with Winston, who I still think, you know, I'm not bullish, but I would still put it, you know, 55% chance that it's James. I do expect that we'll find out early in the week, though. It's been, yeah, it's unfortunate that we've gone the direction we did with Winston. I mean, they scored seven points against Kansas City, 14 against Pittsburgh the week before. But those are like those are also great defenses that oftentimes shut down teams. Like Kansas City and Pittsburgh, we worried about those matchups weeks and weeks earlier. This is Cincinnati Bengals. Like if we get James Winston against Cincinnati, now I don't know the weather yet in Cincinnati, this time of year you got to care about that.

clear oh man oh my baby i won't it i want i want i want i want cedric tillman back we'll talk about him when we get to wide receivers i want all the all of the pieces in that 48 point over under as of right now that's you're still very winston bullish i am still very winston bullish for fantasy football i'm fine with judy but beyond that i mean we just saw will levis get benched against cincinnati last week and um i don't know He's playing some pretty crappy football. As of right now, only 2% chance of rain, six mile an hour wins, which is a okay. All right. Let's go. Come on, Winston. I imagine Cincinnati, I mean, we probably have a line already. I'm guessing they are. Where's the game? In Cincinnati. Eight and a half point favorites. Oh, that can't be. Seven. Told you.

I probably would have gone like six and a half, five and a half. Yeah, so that implied point total. A lot of that's going to Cincinnati. Cleveland has an implied team total of 20 and a half points right now. Yeah, yeah. Taj Spears. So that's the next big name. He scored twice last week. Tony Pollard re-injured his ankle. We don't have any further reports on Pollard. He's been playing through injury. He's been finding a way to start games even when. It didn't seem like he was going to, so that could happen again a la DeAndre Swift for the Bears missing practices. But Spears? If you knew for sure, if we got definitive, like Pollard goes to IR, I would put Spears above Ford. I think Spears is a more explosive player. We'll be very involved in the receiving game. I believe he caught six passes last week. They're very similar.

It could be DTR and Mason Rudolph, which is the most likely... But the difference there is that I think Mason Rudolph is actually an upgrade. I think DTR is actually a downgrade. So I'm not worried about who the starting quarterback is for Tage. If it's Will Levis, great. He'll do some crazy stuff, but crazy stuff often makes your offense have to, you know, James. And then if it's Rudolph, they tend to score more points with him. Kendrae Miller, we talked about him already in the context of Camara. You know, it's hard. I would go hard in the paint for all three of those guys if they were somehow out there, which, by the way, they wouldn't be mentioned on this show if they were rostered in 50% or more of leagues. They're not, you know, probably a little bit higher in playoff situations right now. But, you know, Kendri Miller's still 16% rostered. And I would throw everything at picking up those three players. Put them in the order you think is most suitable for your roster, but bid everything.

on those three guys if they're out there. 100%. They need to be rostered. Also take a look at your opponent. You know, you need to pay attention. They might have lost Camara. They might have lost David Montgomery and really be needing this player. There comes a time and time is now where if you've got your backup, you've got your insurance running back, you know, for your star who is currently healthy and you're like, I can't drop. my insurance, what happens if for the championship game, you know, my guy gets injured, I need him. But if your opponent needs to play one of these three running backs, and personally I'll put four because I think Alexander Madison, but we could talk about him in a second. But if your opponent needs a starting running back for this week, drop your backups and block them, even if you don't need them. It is more valuable for you getting to the championship than your backup right now.

Yeah, the value of the backup is diminishing exponentially right now. Yeah, you have one week of insurance. That's it. Yeah. And if you, even if you're not blocking, I would be dropping the backups for these guys who might have prolonged value. Yeah, yeah, that's true. I mean, Ford, Taj, Kendra, they are probably more valuable than your backup next week as well. What is the, is, is, is Ty Johnson a, is some sort of mirage? Yes. I don't, I don't understand. I mean, look, Amari Cooper went from 14 targets to zero. Ty Johnson has two weeks in a row where he's been involved in the passing game. Now, you know, two weeks ago it was only two receptions, but he caught a like a 50, no, a 41 yard reception for a touchdown. This last week.

still only seven total opportunities. Now, he was five for 114 in the passing game. That's great, but I don't think you could bank on that. I wouldn't be, I wouldn't be even picking up Ty Johnson. He's the third string running back on this team. I don't know what he is, man. I don't know what he is. Is he a third string running back? I believe he's a third string running back. Is he the number one passing back? Yeah, I mean, it's probably an anomaly. What's happened in the last two weeks? There are too many pieces in Buffalo that can score the touchdowns.

You know, they've kind of started using him a little bit like Khalil Shakir the last, well, really, not even two weeks ago. Just as last week, they kind of utilized him in that screen game the same way that they use Kalil Shakir. But the point is, they can use Kalil Shakir. They can use other options. Let's talk about the Raiders running back, because Sincere McCormick got injured. I don't think we, I've tried to look this morning. Kyle, if you can vet and see if there's any more definitive news on the ankle injury, but. If he's out, and I think he will be out, it looked pretty bad. You've got to Mir Abdullah and Alexander Madison. I would personally put Alexander Madison ahead. He's going to get more volume, even if he's not the past catching guy. And they play against Jacksonville. So the matchup is okay for a bad offense. I think he would be next up after the three pack of Ford Spears and Miller. I think Gainwell might be in play as well as an ad. Kenneth Gainwell.

looked good in the passing game, and we really don't know how banged up Saquan is. If you are Philly, you know, you've got to make a decision on what's most important. He's got a lot of tread on the tires this year. Saquan does. And if you don't have him for the playoffs, you're in trouble. So as the practice reports go on, Kenneth Gainwell, in our league of record, somebody threw him on the roster Sunday morning. I believe it was. Was it you, Jason? Yeah, it was. It doesn't matter because I'll kick me out. And Barclay's not talking about his injury, but he missed like the second quarter, and he only handled a little bit of work over the second half. And he looked bad. Something looked wrong. Yeah, I mean, you look at just, you know, his efficiency on the course of the season, Sequin, and you're like, man, he's just so good every game. And then all of a sudden, last game when he got injured, he's sitting there at 3.4 a carry, not getting it done. If you look at, look at his game logs going back, 10.4.

a carry 4.9, 5.9, 4.7, 5.6, 9.8, 4.7, 6. He's just been unstoppable. And then he was clearly not just shut down by Pittsburgh. He was injured. You know, he was sub 4 a carry and looked bad on the field. Wide receivers that you want to keep your eyes open for, to me is Jalen McMillen is the headline. Really? Yeah, because... Well, look at you. Because I don't... Look, we're coming in here every week and we're repeating names that don't matter at the top of the waiver list. So I want, if I'm going into the fantasy playoffs, I think that Jalen McMillan matters. I, you know, we've said Q's for a thousand weeks because guess what? He just keeps getting dropped and picked up and dropped and picked up. I'm not saying if Q's out there, you shouldn't pick him up. I just think... You would pick Q's up over...

Over McMillan, right? I mean, Cuge has been good pretty much most of the season other than his prime time dropopatomus fest. No. You would rather start McMillan this week. No, because I'm living in the vacuum, the single vacuum of a one week situation. And I prefer Jailie McMillan this week. Then I do the Denver matchup for Cuge where Ladd McConkey's the target hog. And I'm, it's a touchdown prayer for Cuge. And I think McMillan. We saw what Godwin did in the offense. He's finally getting the opportunity. Six for 75 in a touchdown. And guess what? We know what Q is. We don't yet know what Jalen McMillan's potential is. It is the right approach to take a one week look. And if you say, I like McMillan this week against Dallas more. Dallas is, I need to look at the last few weeks. Trayvon Diggs is out for the season now. I mean, this is a huge opportunity for Tampa. They're going to score a lot of points. Controlled weather environment.

Not up in Denver, figuring it out, a team that's kind of going down. That's just my. Is this like another McMillan touchdown guarantee? There's barely, he barely has room to score more touchdowns he's scoring so many. Yeah. You know, if I'm the highest over under the week, by the way. And so I'm McMillan, huge. And then beyond that, you know. So I like, if we're taking a one week approach, I really like Rashad Bateman. It is, again, it's hot and cold. He's not a volume play. But if you look back at this season, I mean, he is pretty much, you know, at least every other week, gotten it done. He's got seven touchdowns on the course of the season. He is often getting, he's definitely getting bomb passing attempts almost every week. This upcoming matchup against Pittsburgh with maybe no.

T.J. Watt or a banged up T.J. Watt. They're at home. The weather as of right now looks good. I like Bateman. I think I would rather take the shot at Bateman than McMillan, who's really only had two good games in his career, right? I mean, they've been the last two weeks. Yeah, he's a rookie. So we'll disagree there. I mean, I feel like the baseline for McMillan's going to be higher. You know, Bateman is definitely a home run threat. He's had zero catches against Philly the week before. But then last week had the two touchdowns. So it's, it's, I'm still McMillan, man. Sure. You also have the easy matchup. We don't agree a lot today. I think we agree on Jemir Gibbs. Like he's going to be really good. There you go. What about the Packers wide receivers? You had Dobbs get the dub touchdowns this last week. You're at home against an easy Saints matchup. I feel like you should have some passing touchdowns there. Watson over Dobbs.

Yeah, I would take Watson over Dobbs as well. And Watson might be better than Bateman. I will say McMillan, if you look at the path, he's got a good quarterback, he's got a good matchup, and when you have rookies that start to break out at the end of their rookie season, it can come in stretches. I'm not saying he is Ammon Raw St. Brown or the next coming, but we saw that with rookie season Amman Raw, where it took a while and then towards the end of the year. It happened week after week after week. And you don't have the time. It's the playoffs. You don't have the time to find out. You've got to call your shot. And so you're saying that it's going to be sticky. And honestly, we've seen Kate Otten kind of disappear. They need McMillan. I think you've warmed me up to Jalen McMillan being higher up my personal waiver rankings. I just want a shot at, you know, the way Ladd McConkey's come on in the back part of the season. The fact is the Baker Mayfield offense that the running game is banged up and hurt.

That's the way I lean. Now, none of these are these are not must starts. Nobody in this wide receiver category is a guaranteed must start, although I do consider Kuge McMillan and probably, probably Bateman as flex-worthy plays. Another name that you have to bring up is Malik Washington and Miami because Malik Washington, it's a San Francisco matchup, but he already caught five passes last week. They let go of O'Dell Beckham and Jaylon Waddle is injured. And so you're looking at this situation where, you know, we caught, what, three more passes than Tyreek did? Yeah, another rookie who is. And his snap count will be in the 70s and 80s next week. Yeah, he'll get a lot more opportunities this week. I think a near must start, but you don't even know for sure if it's capable when you're making your transaction on the waiver wire. But Cedric Tillman's still available in half the leagues. He's missed three games with a concussion. He was practicing last week.

seemed like he was going to play was not active. However, if James is there. Only James. Yes, yes, yes. Only of his James. Not for both of us. We're in agreement. Because it's been five weeks. We're just agreeing all over the place. Yeah, we're just super sympathetic. Yeah, if James is back and Cedric Tillman is active against the Bengals, I mean, he goes from possible flex to me to almost a must start. My dart throw. Our dart throw. Oh, because you're- Fireball. Nope. Oh, all right. No, no, no. Shut up. My dart, my, don't be surprised if he has a huge week and you didn't see it coming and he's still on waivers next week. Is Jalen Coker of the Carolina Panthers? That's Coker, Al. As I've always said. As you've always, as you looked up and verified. This is a, this is the deep threat for Carolina. Adam Thielen's going to be you're underneath and your dink and dunk.

but you've lost Xavier Leggett and he's not really a deep threat type of guy anyways. And Jalen Coker is. Jalen Coker is a physical force. He played 80 plus percent of snaps. He had four for 110 and a touchdown against Dallas. And if you want to take a shot because you are just ravaged by injuries, that'd be your guy. Yeah, and I was going to throw out Fireball Jones, aka Tim Patrick. He keeps scoring. Well, the last couple weeks, he's not only scored, but he's been involved in the target pecking order, seven targets, eight targets. Now, the last two weeks, these are shootouts with Green Bay and Buffalo. I do think it comes down a little bit against Chicago in Chicago. They probably won't need to throw it as much, kind of like what you saw from Sam Donald last night. But Tim Patrick, you know, in deep leagues is available.

Jason, I wonder what the kind of next piece of the lion's offense is going to be without Montgomery. Like is there going to be more involvement from a secondary option or more involvement from Leporta? Like I think Leporta could be more of a focal point where, look, you have to understand this team isn't going to just, they're not just going to run Montgomery packages with Gibbs every play. They're going to do what is in their best advantage when it comes to, structuring this offense. We used to know what they do. They go out with their huge giant personnel and run Montgomery. That's not how they're going to use Gibbs. They may use them sometimes like that, but they're going to kind of conform to the personnel that they have. And Laporta is a weapon that's been waiting in the wings. Maybe it's some Tim Patrick. Maybe it's Jameson Williams. I think we're going to see some different stuff. Maybe it's more Jared Goff in general because I think it will be more Jared Goff. Jared Goff, to me, goes the next couple weeks as

more passing touchdowns than rushing touchdowns. All right, we'll take a break. We'll jump into tight ends where we agree on everybody. All right, we're into the tight ends and we agree on everyone because there is no one. There's not really anybody. I mean, Brent, Brenton Strange is widely available. He was targeted on 30% of his routes, which makes sense because he had 11 targets with Mack Jones. This is the tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars in replacement of Evan Ingram. If you're in a full PPR league, okay. Every target for Jacksonville went to Brian Thomas or Brenton Strange last week with Mac Jones. It's a great matchup against Las Vegas. But I have gone through this exercise. I don't have, I don't think that I'm going to sit aught and down for Strange even if I got them on the waivers. Okay. So that is the level. That is the exact level because most people who are in the playoffs, I don't think I'm going to do that. They have a good tight end.

You didn't just lose Evan Ingram and you're in the second round of the playoffs. You have an answer. I think the people out there that don't are maybe the Njoku manager, you know, how to buy and is still in it. Or the, you know, you're dealing with a Kate Aughton level replacement. And if you're not going from Kate Aughton to Britain Strange. I'm just going to bank. I've been through this whole exercise. I knew bringing it up with submarine and any attempts of me getting Britain Strange on the waiver wire in our league of record to fill in for. for Kate Auden. I've been through the exercise, and to me, it's the highest over under the week in the Tampa game. Who's going to score a touchdown? Right. I mean, Britain's Strange. If I told you a player got 11 receptions in a game, you'd be like, that's a dominant week. This was not a dominant fantasy week. It should at least be 100 yards. 11 receptions at 100 yards would be.

pretty inefficient. And it was, yeah, it was 73 yards. He didn't score. The odds of them scoring are low. I'm not saying Britt and Strange is going to have a bad week and he's unstartable. I'm just saying I'm going to go with the odds that Baker throws three to four touchdowns. And I'm just going to hope that one of them is to Kate Otton. It's not like they haven't taken shots to him. I'm just going to hope that that's the situation. Sure. And it sucks. Outside of that, you got Stone smart on the waiver. He's the next man up for me. Yeah, I mean, stone. Because of untapped upside that we don't know about. Yeah, but the problem there is the Denver matchup.

Divisional. Stone Smart is the replacement of Will Disley for the Los Angeles Chargers. He looked pretty good. He got overthrown on a couple balls. He actually could have had a pretty big game last week. Unfortunately, him and Herbert weren't quite in sync yet. So I think as the season goes along, Stone Smart is someone worth paying attention to. It would be really hard to start him in round two of the playoffs against Denver, though. To smart him. It'd be hard to smart him, right? Boston. Yeah. Sorry, but. You weren't really. No, I wasn't feeling that one. Well, I mean, I don't feel any of these tight-ins, so I shouldn't have even taken a shot. Yeah, let's go to defenses then. What do you like there? The Arizona Cardinals had a very down week this last week. However, so did Bryce Young. Bryce Young kind of pumped in the little bit, and, you know, they're pretty available. The Cardinals' defense on the course of this season has actually been better than you think for fantasy purposes.

And Bryce Young has been known to throw some bad looking balls. You know, that's going to be my defense this week in the semifinals. Cardinals are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde on defense, but I'm going to just hope that even if, you know, if Bryce plays well for three quarters, one bad quarter from Bryce could be enough to support a good performance. My favorite defense of the week is the Packers. It's gotten even better. Oh, yeah. I mean, no Camara, no car. No Oliva. Nobody. So they're playing against the Rat Tail in Lambo. If you've got the Packers defense available to be picked up, they absolutely need to be picked up. Hopefully he got him last week like Al Borland did. If for some reason. Man, I love his team. Al's team is so good. It really is. It's like do no wrong. That's my guy. Yeah. That's the man of the people over there. Everyone's rooting for you, Al. You endorsed him. Yeah. And so when the rally happens, you go up there and you give a speech and stuff.

Absolutely. Am I allowed some speech time? Of course. Oh, thanks, bud. Yeah. I mean, who wouldn't root for a guy that's never won one? Yeah, I mean, that is part of it. Like, I'm definitely rooting for him to get his first rather than you to get your second in a row. If Will Levis has announced a starter, sometimes it's a compliment, sometimes it's a backhanded compliment. Obviously, the Colts can be, all teams can be played against Will Levis. That worked really well for me this last week, throwing the Bengals awful defense. against Will Levis, and they should have had two pick sixes. It'll be Mason. I think it will be Mason Rudolph as well. And then the Raiders against Jacksonville and Jacksonville against the Raiders. Both directions kind of work, although I wouldn't do it with the Raiders because I'd play Jacksonville defense if I'm desperate, but I wouldn't do the Raiders defense against the, did you watch the Mac Jones highlights? Did you watch the Macs? Are there? The bravado. Oh, yes. The post.

Good play body language type of stuff. I believe that Matt Jones is doing the one thing that you should be doing in your situation. If you're a backup quarter, by the way, he was, when you say are there any highlights, he was a top 10 quarterback last week. He attempted 46 passes and he supplied not Britain Strange with 11 catches, but Brian Thomas with all those catches. I would say Brian Thomas supplied Mac Jones. I mean, Mac Jones threw for 300 yards. Mac Jones did what you're supposed to do when you get a chance. Don't come in. and be a Desmond Ritter dink dunk fest, just chuck it. Winston's done this for years. Flacco's done it. Come in and show another team. Like Mac Jones is playing for a job. Show another team that you could maybe be a starter someday. It's not impossible. If Mac Jones goes the rest of the season with some good performances, I can easily see him getting one of these starting jobs for a team that drafts a quarterback, you know, that type of situation where you're

You're like, come in and play, and it'll probably end up going more of the Drew Lock route. But that's what he's got something to play for. There's actually a handful of really good pickups. The Atlanta Falcons, they've got 13 sacks over the last three games. They play the Giants and their 10th string quarterback, I believe. Is it going to be Tim Boyle? I don't know. You never know. They pick them out of a hat right before the game. And the Rams defense, sometimes they're really hot. And the Jets, while their offense has been going, they've actually given up a lot of fantasy points. So they're not the worst option either. Well, that's going to dovetail poorly into this next segment. Full stream ahead. Because my streaming quarterback is Aaron Rogers against the Rams. Following up on difference makers, the Rams defense is 28 against quarterbacks over the last six weeks, 31st against whiteouts. There's a lot of risk there for me.

I think there will be a lot of points scored in that game. So I think Aaron Rogers is actually a streamable option. How interesting. My streamer is Matthew Stafford on the other side because of pretty much everything you're saying. I think there's going to be a lot of points scored in that game. So maybe don't play the Rams defense. These two teams have been in some shootouts recently. Both these quarterbacks have put up a lot of yards recently. And if you look at the Jets defense, the Jets past defense ranks. 30th versus quarterbacks over the last eight weeks. It's not just the high-end guys. It's literally everybody. Russell Wilson was the quarterback five. Anthony Richardson was the quarterback five. Tua was the quarterback four. Mac Jones last week, quarterback eight, everything we're talking about. Matthew Stafford feels very safe for the streaming options this week. Who would you rather start between those two? Stafford and Rogers are both there. Rogers. Just because he's at home or? Yeah, I just, I mean, both are fine.

Both are in the exact same category. Both could suck and both could be great. But Rogers has got a couple good weeks in a row. And, you know, it's tight. It's close. Flip a coin. Don't play either. I mean, we're not in a position here, by the way. This waiver show feels weird to me. In some regards, I know we've got to do it and there might be a nugget here there. Most people, most people have got players to play this week. I mean, that's why you're here. I mean. David Montgomery goes out, you're probably got a guy on your bench that's better than most of the guys you're picking up. Maybe you end up able to grab a spears or grab a Ford and that would be awesome. Ford would be outstanding. But if not, you know, this is, maybe you're doing, maybe you're playing defense more than you're playing offense in some of these leagues. Yeah, I mean, obviously if you're playing defense, it's.