Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - NFC North Breakdown, News, Mailbag

He produces fantasy points worthy of being on a fantasy roster and starting week in, week out. Kyle Rudolph is a... Tight-in to... Perfect streamable tight-in. Streamable tight-in. In the Norv Turner offense, we kind of expected bigger things from last year, probably about the same. Well, he got banged up. Yeah, he didn't play at all. He'll be way better than last year. If he played at all?

No, he played, but just not very much. That's what I thought. Not very much. He was very disappointing. I had one last quick point about Charles Johnson versus Wallace. Johnson's playing the productive receiver position for North Turner's offense. Norve loves him, too. But I agree. He probably can't be up. He snuck him away from Cleveland, and Kyle Shanahan quit partly because they let Charles Johnson go because he thought you guys are idiots for making this happen. Yeah, but that, like,

amazing wide receiver crop they have in Cleveland. Right. Clearly replaced Johnson. He was not needed here. But Charles Johnson was through, from week 11 on, he was the 26th wide receiver. I think he could, he can make the jump to be a wide receiver too. I think he's, I think he's a wide receiver too. Yeah. But if he gets up to two, then he's had a better year. Yeah. All right, let's.

Move it on to the Detroit Lions, Joyke Bell's team. And their total offense last year, they were 19th in the league. They were the 12th best passing offense. They were at the, oh, wait, they were 29th in rushing. Oh, wait, but that's okay, because I hear something. I hear something coming. Is that Mani Ramirez and Lake and Thompson? Two guards? Two guards? All aboard.

We're leaving the station, Andy. Please jump on. I don't think I can talk about the Detroit Lions anymore. Leaving the station, Abdullah Express. I don't have a ticket. Yeah, clearly. 29th best. I'm saving my money. 29th rushing offense. I'm saving my money. Joyc Bell's really good. All right. They've added a couple guards. It should help the running game. They've added Lance Moore, obviously Amir Abdullah. Indoor. If you've ever heard of him.

In the second round, Abdullah was drafted. They lost Reggie Bush. They lost Garrett Reynolds their tackle. So let's answer some questions about the Lions. I think we're all in the camp that Calvin Johnson is going to bounce back from an injury-riddled year. Is anybody throwing shade on Calvin? No, I had him ranked outside my top five way early in the off-season. Oh, breaking news?

Yeah, he's back. Yes. You changed your rankings? I know. You are a coward. Getting grief on... You are a coward. It is June 24th. Those got to be locked in. One of the best things about... How is not locked in. About good fantasy players is that new information changes opinions. What? We're not going to just say something. No, I mean, but this is important because...

I got some grief for changing my Colin, context, right? I got grief for changing my Colin Kaepernick prediction to move them from four to six. You are the bitter man right now. No, I just think it's comedic. You got that Keystone face. No, don't, don't plant seeds out there, Mike. Don't plant seeds. Jason continue giving some perspective. Yeah. So the perspective here is this. You know, we've done fantasy for a long, long time. And there's two types.

of fantasy players and fantasy experts for that matter. There's the type that they got their guy and they're talking them up or they're talking them down. And they won't be swayed off of that because they have already announced it. The line's been drawn. They've made the proclamation and so now they just stick to their guns. Jeremy! And so it's one of those things where it's like you're a fool to do that. And it's not being wishy-washy. It's wanting to be the best, wanting to get it right.

When I'm wrong, when Mike's wrong, when Andy's wrong, we tried to evaluate the data and change it. And so, yeah, that's just to say you will hear us change our opinions as time goes on, especially right now in the early office. So talk about Calvin Johnson. So Calvin Johnson, to me, is somebody that I think I had a little bit too much short-term memory on him. As I looked at the games that he played in last year where he was on the field, not as a decoy, but playing. He was...

an absolute monster. You keep in mind that he missed several games and then played several more games as a complete decoy. He was a fat head out there on the field. They just stuck him on a... They had someone running with him, you know, on a cardboard stick. And he still finished. What did he finish? Top 15 or so?

in wide receiver last year? Oh, I didn't even write that down. So, I mean, it's one of those things. Your point would have been very profound if you came with a big number right there. Yeah. I'm pulling it up. Yeah. So, yeah, I like Calvin this year. His numbers were skewed by those decoy games and injuries. What I, speaking of that, if you, so if you kind of work around the numbers, I took out his two injured games because those were just a mirage of who Calvin Johnson is, and then you extrapolate everything.

went from when he wasn't playing. Let's say he's healthy. He was on pace for 182 targets. Yeah, that's pretty good. So he still had her 128. Oh, he finished 14th. Yeah, 14th. So even better. So he was just outside being a wide receiver one despite basically being there for, you know, three quarters of the season at the most. Got to give those veterans the respect they deserve. Yeah. I tweeted about that this week. Guys just...

They want to jump off those Alfred Morris non-sexy Frank Gore-type guys. You can't do it. I will say that when the cliff happens, it's going to be really quick, I think, for Calvin. But it's not this year. I don't agree. I think he takes the exact same path of Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson. The Larry Fantasy Cliff was very quick. Oh, you're talking about the fantasy cliff. Okay. I'm with you on that. That could happen. Possession receiver. Yeah. But he's still got that body.

Yeah, big old body. You can't take six five away. What was it? Lexus commercial? What did he used to be in? Oh, where they dress him up? Yeah. Oh, yeah. I never could get that out of my head. Those abs. Megatron. It was like he was for me. And I know we slightly passed him, but I do need to say this because I think it's an important piece of fantasy information. We got a couple minutes. We can talk about the lines. Last week.

You asked the quick question as we opened the show was who is it that's going to ruin people's teams. The question was, yeah. Oh, I know where this is going. Who's going to stop you making the playoffs this year? Yeah. And my backup answer to Tom Brady, which I have to caveat that, that was assuming the four-game suspension holds. Which we don't know. Right. Which should have been in our news and notes, but might let's let that out. But Joick Bell. Who cares about Tom Brady? No, let's talk about Ruben Randall. Joyke Bell was my backup there for that pick because...

That's not a consensus here because Andy still likes Droit Bell, but I do think Joyke Bell is the type of guy that where you're drafting him, he is not going to produce. And I, you know, I still clear. We disagree. Do I have no Joyke Bell bets? Is that? Yeah. Oh, I have one. I do. We have one. I made that stupid bet. All right. No, I'm fine with that one. That's cool. Jake Bell is our guy. I still believe that. Can't you tell?

Yeah. He is a big deal, and he's getting bigger from what I hear this offseason. Bigger, getting older. You mean like Eddie Lacey bigger or like Alfred Morris? Oh, crap. All right, let's talk about the Bears. Let's talk about Jay Cutler, Jay Cuddy, smoking Jay. Let's talk about that kind of remade wide receiver core, change in offense. Obviously, we didn't put that in the notes here, but Trestman is gone.

We are throwing big shade on Matt Forte this year as an elite fantasy running back. We don't believe that that will continue. And as the offense changes and as his carries pile up, they were not a good offense last year. They were, you know, for all the talk of Mark Trussman being gone and maybe that has more fantasy implications than real offense implications. But, I mean, they were bad. They were the 27th best rushing offense last year. They...

Have Jeremy Langford in the backfield now, Jekwiz Rogers in the backfield now. We just talked about them signing Daniel Thomas. They have Khadim Carey. One of those guys will be gone. They still have Martellus Bennett, albeit unhappy. They drafted Kevin White. They drafted a center in the third round. They picked up Eddie Royal, who we have to talk about Eddie Royal because he had the...

best year of his career last year other than his rookie year when he played with Jay Cutler. He was, when he came into the league, he was the Wes Welker of the Denver Broncos. And when he lost Cutler, his role changed. So let's pick a guy. Who do you want to talk about? We'll start with Eddie Royal. Yeah, we'll go right there. So in 2008, he had 129 targets. His finishing line was 91, 985 touchdowns. That's a...

That's a very strong year, especially for a rookie. And then Jay Cutler was traded for two first-run picks or whatever. So I don't think he's going to see 129 targets necessarily. But... That was year one, though. What did he get last year? Last year, he got 91 over in San Diego. That's not bad. I think he can get more than that because you have Adam Gaze coming in who...

ran the Bronco offense last year, which, and we don't know how much, you know, Manning influences everything, but last year, Manning threw the ball 597 times, even with those injured games. So he's still through the ball a ton. I think Eddie Royal can be over 100 targets, and you have, because Forte is not getting 130 targets again. Bennett is not getting 128.

I don't think the targets for Jeffrey even go up with Marshall even. I think they go up marginally. Yeah, he was already top five. So there's a lot of targets to go around on that team. I would not at all be surprised if Eddie Royals is the number two wide out fantasy-wise on that team. Yeah, it wouldn't shock me either. I expect him to be. Oh, okay. Yeah. And so speaking of Matt Forte where how we're throwing the shade, he's approaching the 2,000 carry marker where the.

The Hall of Famers separate themselves. He's got over 2,200 touches total if you put in his catches. Last year was the second worst year of his career. He had a 3.9 yard per carry average, which is under the suck threshold of four. And his entire fantasy season was saved by his record-breaking 102 catches, which, and if you don't remember, they fully patted his stats the last game to make sure he got the record.

Which I'm all for. Get your guys the records. But when you bring in a guy like Jaquiz Rogers, that's what he does. He's a great pass blocker and he's great taking a dump. Wow. Mike laughed at himself so fast. What's he great at? You know, one of the things... Catching. To... I hope that ends up on Twitter. To lay a pile on top of that. One of the things that people forget about Forte.

is that he was not, he was not the goal line back for the majority of his career. That's true. They brought in Bush to pound in those, it was so frustrating having Forte. He's, and so, you know, Tresman came in, and when Tresman was there, they just used them as a true bell cow. Every three downs, goal line, every work. That was only while Tresman was there, and his running was 3.9 yards. Now, I do expect him to get a ton of usage. I do expect him to be there.

You know, first guy, I'm not predicting injury. I just think inefficiency. So kind of like what happened, what you got out of LaShawn McCoy last year for where you drafted him. You drafted him first. He finished about 12th. Perfect. Yeah. If I could cut that out, you know, obviously I take all the dump stuff out, the Mike said. But if it could cut that take on Forteate, that can be the banner theme song for our entire offseason of discussing him. Overdrafted. It could not be more perfectly stated than that.

inefficiency, and Lashaw McCoy is an amazing example of that where, oh, he's a can't miss. Well, no, you can miss. And when the offense changes, you can really, really miss. And when you're older, you can really, really miss. Well, and you can say, right, you didn't miss. You didn't miss. You didn't miss on Lishamacquay, right? Because you felt like it, though. You did because where you had to draft him, he doesn't produce there, and that misses. So, you know, if you grab Forte and he still ends up as, you know, a, uh, uh, uh,

you know, decent RB2, but you had to draft them as one of those top five guys. If that's what you're thinking, you're going to be disappointed. I want to ask you, Jason, a couple questions here about Alshon Jeffrey before we close out our Bears segment here. Alshan Jeffrey or T.Y. Hilton. Alshan Jeffrey all day. Alshan Jeffrey or A.J. Green. Ooh, that one is really, really good. I would say Alshon Jeffrey right now. Wow. Okay. Alshon Jeffrey or Demarius Thomas. DeMriouson Jeffrey or Randallis Cobb.