WR Rankings + Mike Becomes a Real Boy!

I traded for Marcheon yesterday after you're darn right. After you came and showed me that 60-yard jaunt. Beast mode is going to be beastly, and Amari Cooper is going to be a wide receiver one. And he's a good value. Right now in drafts. I mean, he's going behind Tyree Kill. He's going almost in the fourth round. 312 right now is where he's going to PPR leagues. That's a great value. 16th wide receiver off the board. I'm moving on to number 12, and I'm...

I'm aghast when I look at the weekly breakdown of this player's fantasy finishes last season. Merry Christmas. T.Y. Hilton is coming in at number 12 in our consensus rankings, wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts. I have him at nine. Jason and Mike have him at 14. And last season was, it was like he was in the deepest part of the ocean and he'd put his head up four times.

over the course of the year. And he got big breaths when he came up. Oh, yeah. And then he went back down because, look, Andrew Luck was not there. Week three, he was the fifth wide receiver in fantasy. Week five, he was the fourth. Week nine, he was the first. But in between 57, 48, 73, 76, 66, 63, 61, 676. He was consistent. I mean, this is not, you're not even touching relevance. You are, you might as well be on the bench those weeks. Those were.

atrocious. Last year for T.Y. Hilton, and I'm not trying to hold too much against Hilton for this, but that is the absolute worst thing that can happen to your fantasy team, is that week three and five, because then you keep playing T.Y. Hilton, who. For week six, seven, and eight when he was 76, 63, 61. Yes. Then you finally bench him for week nine when he's the number one wide receiver. He just keeps making you believe.

And hopefully you made T.Y. Hilton somebody else's problem this past year. But we're back. Andrew Luck is back. He's got a new mustache. Does he really? Oh, yeah. Oh, he's mustachio over there in Indianapolis. Got to move him up. The last time T.Y. Hilton played with Andrew Luck. He led the league in receiving yards. He was the wide receiver five. There is reason to believe.

That T.Y. Hilton should be back to being a fantasy relevant wide receiver. But that's now baked into his average draft position where he's going at the very beginning of the third round. So you are, you're paying, you're paying basically full price now for T.Y. Hilton. The values are gone. Yeah, that's my issue with him.

I do think that you're paying near the ceiling. I realized two years ago when he had Andrew Luck led the league, he was the number five wide receiver. So maybe there's slight room for improvement ahead of that number 10 draft position. But I think the risk reward is like the reward is pretty much you get value at where you drafted him. The risk is still pretty high if anything happens with luck. Really? Oh, yeah. If something happens with luck. That's where I'm baking in the risk. Yeah, and that's going to go with.

Obviously, any main wide receiver, the quarterback goes down. Luck obviously has more of a history with the injury. Yeah, I'm speaking of. But I don't think there's any world. Do any of us believe that he can finish outside the top 20 with Andrew Luck healthy? No, no way. I don't think it's a possibility. If you look at his career over 1883 yards, 1345, 1124, 1448, he's over 1,000 yards every year with luck. He's been pretty consistent with him. If luck is healthy the season, he's definitely not.

outside the top 20. I think there's a good chance that Hilton's in the top five in Yardage again this year with luck. And so it's just a matter of- Just to speak to the ADP though. Here, let's play. Would you draft T.Y. Hilton or this other player? Because these are guys that are currently going behind Hilton in ADP on fantasy football calculator. T.Y. Hilton or Stefan Diggs? Hilton. Hilton. Adam Thielen. Thielen. I'll take a Hilton. Doug Baldwin. Hilton.

Hilton right now because of the injury. Larry Fitz. Hilton. Hilton. I'll give you two more. Tyrie Kiel. Hilton. Hilton? I have to say Hilton. Wow. You are very in on T.Y. Hilton. I am. Is that number nine? All right. Let's move on. Number 13, Mike Evans. Oh, we give him no respect. That's all I hear. Number 13 on our consensus. That's where Jason has him. Mike at 14.

I got him at 15. Last season was an up and down year. He had some of those weeks, the Hilton-esque weeks where he disappeared. Weeks 3, 5, 9, 13, and 14. He was pretty bad outside the top 38 in all those weeks. Didn't have the volume on target-wise. I believe he dropped from the 170s to the 130s. Starts this season with three games. Sands, James Winston.

A very difficult opening schedule. New Orleans, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, then Chicago. Mike Evans' ceiling is, is it up there at number two where he was in 2016, or is it lower? Oh, I would say his ceiling is, you know, wide receiver five. Things work out on the back of touchdowns and usage in the red zone. He could absolutely finish there. The issue with him with projecting him there is that when he finished number two, he was.

The guy and there was no other worthy target. The only guy remotely serviceable then was basically Cameron Brate, a tight end. You're talking about Mike Evans was the show. Now they have their best total core of receivers. Not only is Cameron Brate still there. You have OJ Howard, Chris Godwin getting on the field. Sean Jackson is there. So for Mike Evans to bounce back to that, you know, where he's getting 150 to 170 targets is.

probably not going to happen. He needs 15 touchdowns to do it. Exactly. So volume is what we try to. Well, he needs a lie. He needs 12 touchdowns. Yes, which is very possible for Mike Evans this past season. 12 touchdowns, two years. Of players with 19 or more red zone targets, there were 20 players. Only three players had a catch rate of under 40%. Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, three guys who were very disappointing.

when it came to touchdowns. He was tied for the, or this is Julio Jones I was talking about, but Evans 19 targets inside the 20, five touchdowns, or five receptions, a catch rate of 26%. That won't get it done. But the previous years where Mike Evans has the high touchdown total, it's because that connection is working. That's one of those various things that could easily swing back to Mike Evans' favor.

So his ceiling is still a top eight wide receiver. I think he's going to see a positive regression in the touchdown area. But I don't see him as a top five wide receiver. All right. Number 14 is Stefan Diggs. I am really surprised at the visceral reactions and arguments and thoughts about Diggs and Dillon and who's going to be better. Like people have...

They've chosen a side here. This is something profound that I've seen out there. And look, Stefan Diggs is a great player. But when you look at the game log for last year, it didn't translate into a lot of weeks where he contributed to your fantasy team. He's never had a season where he's finished inside the top 19, or he was 19 last year. But he's never had a wide receiver one season yet. He's had injury problems. There have been some warts.

to Stefan Diggs' game in the last few years, and I know that we all believe in the upside. Mike, you have him at 12, so you believe this is going to be his first wide receiver one season. But I just don't understand why people want to hand it to him so easily. Right. Is it one preseason game? I get that. You have to factor in injuries for Stefan Diggs. 13 games played, 13 games, 14, and that doesn't factor in the games that he actually plays.

But he's still banged up. So he's not as efficient as... Or gets injured and leaves. Sure. So you have to think about those things for Stefan Diggs. But the talent is incredible. He's playing with the best quarterback that he has ever had in the NFL with Kurt Cousins. So I think that's where projecting the upside comes is the talent new upgrade of quarterback. So I like Stefan Diggs to finish...

right around that edge is a low-end wide receiver 1 or high-end wide receiver 2. Yeah, I've got him right in the middle of the wide receiver 2. He's obviously a great talent when he's on the field. What's his upside for you, Jason? For me, I think if he has a phenomenal season, plays the whole season, I think he could be like the wide receiver 10.

I don't see him as one of those top five capable guys. He definitely can finish a week as the number one wide receiver. He's a beast in that way. But, you know, the injuries and the amount of times he leaves the field, they are real. I don't know. Let's get him 80 receptions. Can we do that, Kirk? Right. I mean, you know, I don't know that he's injured or not. This is, you know, fresh, but he's, you know, his practice today, he was found not wearing pads.

So he's not, you know, it's just one of those, maybe they're resting him. Right. That's great. Maybe he's just dinged up again because it's kind of what he does. I remember going into last year believing because he was putting on weight. He was focused on the injury risk. He was wanting to play 16, just couldn't do it. I have a hard time giving him 16 solid, healthy games. Okay. Let's move on. Number 15 is Doug Baldwin. Well, bampo, blah, blah.

It's just health. It's just health. This is one of those players that is going to yo-yo a bit in the rankings based on whether we think he's going to be out there week one, whether we think he's 100% or he's going to have to fight through injury for three or four weeks. He starts on the road against Denver, on the road against Chicago. Those are not matchups that I'm in love with, but he is the number one target for Russell Wilson. He does have a very high ceiling. And when plays break down, he's the guy Wilson goes to.

He's had some very, very good seasons. 2015, the 8th best fantasy wideout. 2016, he was the 10th best. 2017, he was the 13th best. This is a great player who simply needs to be healthy and on the field to get the volume of targets that we're talking about. I am...

100% willing to take the risk on Doug Baldwin. He is dropping fast in drafts. And as the preseason goes, and he sits out, he's going to continue to drop. He's almost at the fourth round now. And so if I'm looking at fourth round wide receivers, you know, Juju Smith-Schuster and Jarvis Landry, guys that I, you know, I like them. They're okay. But Doug Baldwin, I,

They could, Juju could bust just as easily as Doug Baldwin could become injured. But Doug Baldwin's upside, I think this year with Jimmy Graham having left with Paul Richardson gone. I was just going to say Jimmy Graham, 96 targets. Paul Richardson, 80 targets. No, that doesn't mean 170 targets extra going to Doug Baldwin. It means you start drafting Tyler Lockett late in draft. But they're certainly not going to Geron Brown, the replacement. Right. Yeah. So we're waiting and seeing. I think that if you are basically.

Who's going around him in drafts right now? I want to ask that question. Right. Yeah, I can give you some names. So right now he is sandwich between Adam Thielen and Larry Fitzgerald. Right. And is there any scenario where- Would you take Doug Baldwin or Larry Fitzgerald right now? I would take Larry. Wow. I think I would take Doug. Yeah. That's fair. I would go Larry personally. But I'm with Jason that I am absorbing the risk of Doug Baldwin because the upside of Doug Baldwin is a top five.

But right now you don't have to absorb it. Right now you can draft Thielen or Fitz or Hill or Cooper. Sure. Would you draft Baldwin or Hill? I think I would take Baldwin. I would take Baldwin. Okay. Cooper or Baldwin? That one is right now. I would go Cooper. Right now with the injury to Doug Baldwin. All right. Number 16 is Demarius Thomas. It was a year that he faced challenges at the quarterback position.

He still received the 10th most targets in the NFL. He had a much stronger second half of the season, much more consistent second half of the season. Right now, his average draft position is the fourth pick of the fourth round. And we expect Demarius Thomas to be better because we expect Case Keenham to be more consistent than the quarterbacks that he's had over the last few years. Yeah, for Demarius Thomas last year, it was efficiency. It was quarterback play.

The average gap of top 20 wide receivers when you talk about where they finished in target total to where they finished in fantasy points this past season, it was just under two positions, meaning that the wide receiver who got the sixth most targets, they're going to finish right around there in fantasy finish. Of guys in the top 20 of targets, only Des Bryant and Demaris Thomas had a negative gap.