Shocking Stats + Fantasy Valentines - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/13

but would require a different quarterback because they committed money to Tua. And Tua can execute an offense, whether it's, you know, he could execute the deep pass offense too. But it seemed like they made a cognizant decision. And so do we get what we want? It sounds like you're saying no. I believe we will not get what we desire with our hearts, which is massive explosive offense. This is also a team that was second place in the division. And Miami splits when they play good teams versus bad teams are wild. You know, they're three and 14 versus teams with winning records in their three years with him as head coach. He's got to be on the hot seat. He'll definitely be on the hot seat this year. I mean, he's been forgiven a lot because of the two injuries. But that being said, the franchise, the general manager, you know, it seems like they don't want to go and sign a really good.

backup quarterback because, you know, they want to not just protect to a physically in the game, but like mentally, you know, this is to his franchise. We're not going to go out. We don't need a prolific backup, someone that could come in and compete for the job, but that's the wrong. It's beyond stupid. It's so dumb. And I think it will, it has to change after this past year's experience, right? I don't think it will change. I certainly agree that. I mean, if I was the general manager, that would be one of the number one things I'd be looking at is who's a backup quarterback that can come in here and get us to the playoffs, because that's my job as a general manager is to win football games should another injury happen, which if another one happens. Marioita, maybe, somebody like that? Yeah, I mean, there's not a lot of them. I mean, it's easy to criticize, but, I mean, it's hard to find.

Is Flacco? You're Sam. I don't know. Andy Dalton, you know, those guys are few and far between. I mean, Flacco could do the checkdown offense. Two is under contract until 2029. What? Yeah. It's that long? Yeah. Oh. But I think two is a really great player. It's just philosophically, we saw a complete changeover in that offense, which look, if you believe that about the offense, then maybe you have your question marks around. You know, can Jalen Wado be a prolific fantasy player or not? The nice... This is going to have to do a lot with short area targets. I think the nice thing will be ADP. All we have to quote right now is best ball ADP, but like Ty Rieke is at wide receiver 12 going around pick number 22. And then let me scroll. We find Jailen Waddle. Where are you at, bro? Oh, he's going at... Fentiful! Jailen Waddle right now. It's going as wide receiver 30.

Like the risk is being baked into the ADP, which for me means that I'll take some shots on that. Where it's not being baked in, though, is we saw A-chan was at 4. Oh, yeah. So could Devon A-chan in this office be the number one overall running back? I doubt it. I don't think so. Can't give you an Echler gear in this offense? I mean, certainly with the past. 100 receptions? Yeah, with the past catching volume, he can be top five. I think for all parties here, for the avoiding the quick release, protecting Tua, helping the run game, they have got to make this offseason about the offensive line. Their offensive line needs to be, that needs to be the primary focus. If they want to fix their offense, they have to fix their offensive line. Shocking stat number two, we'll call it James was cooking in 2024. James Cook, fantasy points via TD, the percentage of fantasy points via touchdown.

43%. We had a brief moment, I think, three or four weeks ago where I had the, I made a statement about James Cooka and how I'd be out on him for next year. Very strong reactions as though I thought he wasn't a good player, which was not my point. It was cost in the draft, the fantasy drafts, versus likelihood of receiving a level of production. as great as we just received from him. He had fewer opportunity snaps and yards than last year, which is shocking because you had a season last year where you knew you were moving on from competition and you thought you would be getting a more full-time role. Instead, we had weeks where like, oh, that's a lot of Ty Johnson, you know? And then Ray Davis. Like, Ray Davis seems to be the guy that at a minimum this past year was your salt away the game guy, right? Like, you're up by a lot of points.

Let's just let Ray Davis have the fourth quarter. Ray Davis had six touchdowns on his own, three passing, three rushing, and eight into the passing work. Like James Cook is a really good passing, pass catching back. Two years ago, he had 63% of the running back target share for this team, and that fell to 48% this year because they had a three-way committee. James Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns. 43% of his fancy points came via touchdown. He was the number one in the NFL in terms of the highest percentage of attempts turning into a touchdown. So all of that, look, it speaks to the fact that he's an explosive player. Big runs were in the repertoire. 7.7% of his attempts were turned into a touchdown. But over the last six years, that high of a percentage was a direct signal in fantasy.

for regression the following year. For points coming from touchdowns? Yeah. And so you look at that and you say, what odds are you playing here? Can you score 16 more times? And if you can't, it necessitates your volume increasing or your past catching increasing. Like something has to get you back to that point if you're not scoring 16 times. And look, it doesn't matter who you are. If 16 times for Derek Henry, you've got a chance of being down at 11 or 12. Yeah, there's, I mean, there's no way you would bet for a repeat of that. I mean, if you put the line at 10 and a half touchdowns for James Cook, it would be very difficult to take the over there. So there's going to be significant regression there. On the plus side for James Cook, though, and what we need to give him credit for for doing this year is he was very explosive and he's a super good running back. He made a difference.

I mean, we saw it through the playoffs, right? The commentators, the world at large, realized James Cook is their second best offense of player, period. Josh Allen is the leader, and their next best weapon is James Cook. So if you're saying that there is a weapon that can score touchdowns, can catch the ball, can rush for over 1,000 yards on a great offense, right now he's being drafted as the running back 13 at this point for early best ball. You know, he's outproduced that. spot the last two years two years ago he was the running back 11 even though he only had two touchdowns this last year running back eight with all these touchdowns so will you still be out did did the did the any of the arguments online sway you at running back 13 next year for you to consider being in on james cook or you still feel like now his role has gone down and the touchdowns won't be there i i think he it's just a matter of whether you believe

he can ascend to being one of those top tier, whatever you want to say, the Sequins, Gibbs, Bijon, Chiron from a workload perspective, is that in his future? No. And I don't currently have a conviction watching him play football that that's how they're going to utilize them. I look at it more like Aaron Jones in Green Bay where, look, you could. On the right year, you will end up around the number five, six at the position. But the team has shown. They're willing to use a rotation of backs. They did it to great success. They won the division. I don't know. I mean, that was one of the problems in the playoffs. Aaron Jones is the best comp imaginable because he wasn't a guy that went out there and, you know, was getting 350 opportunities a year. This is a guy who was, you know, usually 264, 232 and finished as the running back two, five, 12, nine, kind of these same finishes as James Cook. And he even had a season.

with 16 rushing touchdowns, Aaron Jones did. The following season, he had nine rushing touchdowns. So he was, you know, obviously it's going to be difficult, if not basically impossible, for the average back to go back to back 15 plus rushing touchdowns. It's tough to just be out on James Cook, though. All right. Shocking stat number three, we'll call it the target packing order. I don't know if I like that title. I get it. You know what I mean? Well, once you explain it, yeah, it's the Packers. Kyle, not my favorite. The Packers were the only team in the NFL without a single player seeing a target share above 19%. Did we bring up the Josh Jacobs quote? Yeah, Josh Jacobs quote, it was a headline maker. If you.

Listen to him say it. It's softer than the way it came across in the headlines because he gives a lot of credit to the receiving core and the talent that they have. Before he drives the bus over. It wasn't even that to me. It was more like. Like a light pickup truck. It was like these are guys. And again, let me read that stat again. The Packers are the only team in the NFL without a single player above 19% of the target chair. In fact, Jaden Reed had the fewest Receptions, which was. of any player to lead a team with 11 plus wins since 2015. But his point was more like, here's a bunch of guys that might be able to ascend to become a number one. But it would be nice if we had a number one already. That was kind of the point. Like, it'd be nice if we had somebody that was a proven commodity.

And everyone keeps hinting about Devante Adams coming back home, coming back home, because he's probably going to be dropped by the jets. I don't think Adams wants to do that. He wants to stay in California. Yeah, he's like, I've been in the snow. But, you know, that would be a reuniting of Josh Jacobs. Put a roof over Lambo and Devante Adams is in. So, so it was, you know, I think there were some strong reactions. I think Jaden Reed and Dontavian Wicks in particular. were vocal about their displeasure with the quote. Oh, I did not see that. I am totally there for that. Go ahead and take a scan of that. To which I say, go be a number one and then he will not have said that. Go demand a target share above 19%. It's really hard to criticize someone for telling the truth. Yeah. I mean, it's like it's not always kind. Sometimes it's insulting. I don't think he intended to be insulting, but it.

If the truth is insulting, you can't be too mad at someone. You could say like the quorum that you don't say that to the media. But he's still, is he wrong? I guess, let me ask you that. Is he wrong? Is the Packers already have a true alpha wide receiver one? No, they do not have a proven number one. Can one of these guys become a true alpha wide receiver one? I. Don't think so. So all he did was say what everyone sees. You don't do that to your family out in the public. Yeah, I get that. Because to say, quote, they all have the potential to be a number one, but we need a guy that's proven to be a number one. Yeah. Like that's why I don't, you don't like that comment? It's a, it's a backhanded compliment to me. Here's the thing. You could be it, but I guess we need someone who is. Like my kids could do their homework all the time, but I would love to have a kid that did their homework all the time. Like, you're going to.

Bring that one home? I'm just saying, I'm testing it out how it feels to put my family on. Exactly. I'm putting them on black. Yeah, that sounds like you need a new kid. I think that's a little apples and oranges. I'm just saying, I'm trying to think, you know, if it's my team. There's a free agent kid out there that did their homework, you might sign them. Just saying, it would be great to have one on the team that like just. Just did it. You know, I could trust did their homework. A proven number one kid. That's what I'm saying. If you look at that wider. I love my kids. And they all have the talent and the ability to be my favorite. But they're like number two. I just wish there was like a proven favorite, you know. I think you figured out a lot. I don't think Jaden Reed can be that guy. If you look at the pathway. I think Jaden Reed is number two. And I think the only one on the entire roster that could actually do it would be Dantavian Wags.

I think he's the only one. We're not at the career place for Romeo Dobbs where you're not going up. You're just what you are. I think Romeo Dobbs is a strong supporting wide receiver. And they seem to have a team of supporting wide receivers. Yeah. That's the. So I agree with the comment, but I, you know, the big question is, will this change? Are you bullish for the, would you be bullish about the Green Bay offense going into next year with Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs if they don't have another person? Or do you? Are you always going to be playing the roulette at wide receiver with this group? If they don't do anything to help with the Christian Watson injury, I will be more concerned. But I feel like I've seen enough of Lafleur and his offenses and Jordan Love's ability to say that the Packers will still be a strong offense. With these guys that it feels like we're crapping on, but we're.

trying to say that they're still competent players with that group they were still top 10 in most major statistics eighth and points scored fifth and yards gained sixth in passing touchdown rate sixth and expected points per pass attempt like this was a strong offense and like you can put tucker craft in there of maybe not a number one tight end but like it can be very helpful to an offense so overall i'm still going to be in on the packers but I do hope they add. I do hope they add a number one guy. How excited would you be for Jordan Love if Devante Adams came to that roster? Or somebody of that pedigree. Yeah, you'd be much more excited. I'd be very excited. They'd trade for D.K. Metcalfe. Dantavian Wicks is a really interesting name. D.K. McKaff a number one wide receiver? Yeah. I think he is. I really do. I think he is. I think if he had a really good quarterback, yeah. He's at least an alpha wide receiver one.

from like a in muscles yeah just a capability standpoint i i like so roman just got to go he's got to get the hg h and bulls i don't think there's some there's some things you can't do you just don't grow as tall a lot of dkamek have trade rumors again i am the team seems ready to move on from him i'm glad that you brought up dontavian wicks as the one guy who maybe could do it because i think this season we all wanted him to do it he's got the talent he's always open he earns the targets he doesn't catch them

very well. It got 39 of 74 targets. I'm not sure what, whoof, how many were catchable, I would assume most. But he is, he does have a lot of traits that appear really good. And it's hard, you know, when you're a packer to not see, and especially with the quotes from LaFleur about how he reminds him of Devante Adams. Do you remember when Devante Adams's first thousand yard season came? What year it was? Yeah, it was year four, I think four. Year five. Yeah, because I spent four years insulting Devonte Adams because you get to 990. But he's not the rule. No, no, no, he is the exception. But, you know, his first two years, 446 yards, 483 yards. Sometimes we are quick to just kill a player's career. I think Donovan Wicks, if he could catch the football, he's got everything else. Yeah, exactly. So he's just got to learn one thing.

Just learn this. Just learn how to catch. Just learn the one thing. Get this man, a jugs machine. He's got, he needs the receiving part. They're way more expensive. Did you look into a jugs machine? Yeah, I mean, we mean we. I think we were talking about this at some point and found out there. It's a machine that does very little. It seems two little tires. It seems not complicated to build and they're like, yeah, it'll be a couple thousand dollars. There's two little tires. You know what I mean? And then it's like... Oh, Jordan. Yeah, because Jordan Mason bought one. So we went into that discussion. You know, polls that go to the ground. The material cost is like, I don't know, it was it. 50 bucks? You're going to charge me thousands for this? Well, you got to, you know, going to sink the tires up real science-like. Someone's got a good patent on that and they are holding out. Pat Riley does. It's Pat Riley. It's Pat Riley's patent. All right, we'll take a break. We got some more stats for you. You know, before we went to break, I brought up Pat Riley's name because he has the...

He's always up to no good. He's got the three Pete trademark. But then I realized he had come to an agreement with the NFL and others to be able to use it. But I also thought when he signed that, it's all contented upon the chief's winning. Like, you're not printing up stuff. Pat Riley's pretty upset. So like he lost money. That was like, that was a big bet on Kansas City. Hope it didn't start spending that money. All right. Number four on our shocking stats today. He's okay. He's probably, he's probably okay. Welcome to the Lasers Show. Baker Mayfield's eight finishes. Who? Baker Mayfield's eight finishes. Inside the top five were the most among all quarterbacks. More than Lamar, more than Burrow, more than Josh Allen. This is my favorite part. In fact, that is tied for the most Mahomes has ever had in a season. Eight finishes inside the top five at the position.

on a season in which 4,541 was the accomplishment. And it's wild because I've been thinking about Godwin, right? Like Godwin has the injury. He's a free agent. To me, like the injury might be the pathway to coming back. I think he's back. To Baker, Baker Town. Then you'd have quite the group for Baker for another year. Godwin coming back at some point. And then Evans and McMillan and Otten and company. So. It's interesting to say is Baker going to have more than one elite year when you're a pocket passer? Sure, there's a lot of variability, but he ran for 378 yards this past year. He scored three times on the ground. He's 29 years old. How many more top five finishes do you think he has as a starting quarterback rest of his career? Like a rest of season top five? No. No, the rest of his career, how many times does he finish on the week in the top five? Not that. I didn't mean that either.

All right. Hold on. I meant what I said. Okay. Say it again. Do the play call. How many more top five fantasy seasons does he have as a starting quarterback? Got it. So end of season. And so end of season. Yeah. Yes. Zero. So you think never again. I think never agreed with you. All right. You're never. You're never. Back in the top five? Yeah. I don't think he's going to be top five. You're forgetting about the dog. He's got that dog in. The dog is there. The dog is barking. Like, is angry. Not all pocket passers have the dog. That's true. That's an angry dog. This is his seventh season. This was his first season in the top five as a fantasy finish ever. And he did that on the back of, let me, this is the one stat that is very predictably, um,

unsustainable for everyone, even the superstars. We talk about this when Patrick Mahomes does it. We talked about this back in the day when Aaron Rogers, when your touchdown passing rate, the percentage of your passes that turn into touchdowns is outlandishly high for your career average, that doesn't stick. That doesn't just, that's not a stat that's like, well, because he did it last year, he has leveled up. 7.2%. 7.2. And the years prior? 4.9, 3, 4.1, 5.3, 4.1, 5.6. We know who Baker is, and it's not a bad quarterback. He's a good quarterback. Even if he's leveled up, he's not going to throw a 7.2% touchdown percentage next year. Maybe not. I agree with that. But his career is so bizarre. Yeah, I don't like the seven-year argument. He's got two years that we can pay attention to. I mean, his first three years in Cleveland.

He was at 5.6, 4.1, and 5.3. So I'm going to put him closer into the five. Sure. Which that's above. That's above league average. I don't think he's going to get to 7.2. But we've now seen him as a starter in Tampa Bay for two years. He was over 4,000 yards in both of them. The first year was just 28 touchdowns that jumped up to 41. I think we're somewhere, like I think 28 would be. If I set the line of 34 touchdowns next year, 34 touchdowns do you take? I would take the under. That's a really good. I think I take the over. I think it's a really good line. I think he'll throw 35. But it's going to, like, if he only threw 28 touchdowns and played a full season and he's at 4,200 yards or whatever, that would surprise me. That was good enough for a quarterback 10 for what it's worth in 2023. Nice thing about Baker, 17 games played two consecutive years. They're always fighting for their playoff spot at the end of the season. Right. And he doesn't, he plays through injury.

He just because of the... I'll say one more time, though. The way that his career has gone. One more time. Maybe not next year. I like Baker. I like I think I have him much higher in dynasty startup rankings than most people do. So you're saying because I love Baker. I love watching him. I love rooting for him. And I think he's a very good quarterback. But you're saying you love him specifically for fantasy. Like you are higher than consensus on what you believe he'll score for you. Yeah, I mean, I like this situation. Got a first ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver, Jay. I have Kyler Murray. Kyle Murray and Baker Mayfield on my dynasty team. And I genuinely, I look at Baker, who is a throw-in backup in a trade as my better quarterback. I, man, Baker-Kuyler. That's a crazy conversation. You pulled up a stat yesterday, Jay, or Mike did with the all-time, I think it was you, Mike. The all-time completion percentage leader. Oh, yeah.

Yeah, it was a Goodberry tweet. Yeah, it was something with the minimum games played. He's actually currently, if Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow, if his career was to be over right now, would be the all-time. Completely leader in completion percentage. And Kyler was at number two. And then Kyler was at three? Yeah. So, Mike, final answer, then how many more top five seasons the rest of his career? I went with one. I think it is at least one. I will go, man, top five is so. That's a tough one. Tough. I'll probably say one. And you're at zero, Jay? But very useful for fans. Yeah. And that is not, I don't want it to come across as me saying that he's not good for fantasy. But top five is really difficult. It comes across as though you hate Baker and you're not allowed to root for him ever again. The people who are listening right now, they listen to all year and they know how much I love Baker Mayfield. How many top fives for? Laser. For Justin Herbert.

How many top fives for Justin Herbert left in his career? Yeah. That's a good question. That's a great counter argument because I certainly would. I mean, he's much younger. I would not put it at zero at all. I think he has three more top fives. Wow. Three more. Yeah. Huh. So Herbert. Better get to it. Herbert's about to be 27. Yeah. And currently has one top five finish. I would, I would probably say one more for Herbert. But I bring him up to just, he's a pocket passer. Herbert runs a little bit like Baker does. How many more for Burrow? Oh, quite a few. Well, you have to assume he misses every other season. So that's going to lower that number. And then he gets the comeback player of the year. Every other season. Every other season. Do I, Burrow out here nonstop, publicly putting the pressure on his team is so.

delicious like he just did it again he's talking about the eagles because they were like talking you know how salary cap works and he was explaining well i can you know if if we convert some of my contract and moves things around he's like they should just do what the eagles do like they're paying everybody and it seems to work yeah i that's a tough sell on certain ownership groups you saw i mean they just literally had another player requested trade today so yeah but they have so much cap Yeah, they don't like to spend it. Certain ownership groups are better than others. Yeah. They don't hear cap. They hear profit. Figure it out, man. Get tea back there. That'll be our last one for today then. Bungling Bengals. The Bengals were leading or tied on 69% of their offensive plays in 2024. That is absurd. It's pretty nice. Only the Vikings had a higher rate and they were the only team in the NFL at 60 plus percent that did not make the playoffs. So they were leading and playing well.

And just, you know, one in seven and one score games. Woof. It's the anti-chiefs there. That was before three and oh in their final three games. But look, their defense atrocious across the board in every category. They lost their defensive coordinator or let them go this offseason. You know how Mike Tomlin is too good of a coach to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers the opportunity to draft the top five? future quarterback. So he kind of nerfs them in the playoffs because they don't have a Super Bowl caliber team, but they've, he always takes the caliber he has and gets them to the playoffs. So people are mad that he's not winning in the playoffs. He's a great coach. He's just kind of hurting them because he's not bad enough. Right. This is the exact opposite situation with the Bengals. The exact opposite. Joe Burrow is too good to allow Zach Taylor to get fired.

But what needs to happen is, you know what I mean? Wait, is this the new guy? No, Zach Taylor is not a putrid, stinky coach like the new guy, like the Dennis Allen. I don't hate Zach Taylor. I don't think Zach Taylor is a good enough coach to, like it's doing a disservice to Joe Burrow. I want to see him have, you know, someone that comes in who knows how to help a franchise win. I couldn't. be on the more opposite side. You are, so you love Zach Taylor. The problem was the defense. Zach Taylor was a, was a promoted quarterbacks coach. He's got the best quarterback in football and an amazing offense. The defense was bottom five. So you can blame Zach Taylor for not firing a heralded head coaching candidate. And are, uh, Ari, um, why am I forgetting his name? Oriamo are, are goodness gracious. Where are we? Who's the fired defense of Courtney?