Early Busts & Values + Draft Strategy - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/27

He had a career high 15 interceptions last year, and he did it in only 12 games, and he put two more into the opposing team's hand in the playoffs. Yeah, it's not great. Along with some fumbles. He had 19 turnovers and 13 games. It was pretty bad. And a lot of those were, like, you watch film and you go, what the crap was that? Terrible. Exactly. And when you have a defense that is as exquisite as Dallas's defense, turnovers like that, they just. They destroy your team because you believe you can win the game with very little with some efficiency on offense. And so, you know, we're not in the days of the number one ranked offensive line. I mean, it's fluctuated a little bit over the past handful of years. You don't have Zeke there, and I know that Zeke was on his way out, but what happens if something happens to Tony Poller? Do you have something in the running game to threaten?

defenses don't say Ronald Jones's name I was going to say you were going to say his name just because it's funny to say I mean just think about Dallas's offense if you take efficient running game of Tony Pollard out of it and you put it all on deck your play action pass game which is something that you know they've been able to take advantage of like I think Dak finishes at 12 the problem is that's like You know, that's not what I draft in fantasy football is a player to end up at 12. That's like late career, Matt Ryan. That's like late career Philip Rivers throwing all those interceptions. So there's a lot of red flags to me with Dax game. And like, I won't be shocked if next off season we're talking about him the way, I mean, I hope it doesn't happen. But if we're talking about him in the way that we talk about Russell Wilson right now, which would not make a lot of people happy. I know.

Dax personality would allow us to treat him that way. Dax's young. But year 33, Russell Wilson, we saw the wheels fall off in performance. Yeah, I'm just saying we're not going to talk about him the same way. You're saying because we have more of an active dislike. Yeah, remember the Danger Witch? So I don't think Dax's doing that. Dax's a cool guy. Dax's a great guy. Yeah. And I'm, look, I think he can be. very successful for the football team. But I don't think the things that he needs to do to get there are going to help your fantasy team. Like they could be a 13, 14 win team again. But that could also do that with efficient one to two touchdown a game. You're probably not getting it on the ground. And that's not going to get it done for fantasy. So I think, you know, even though he's going in the eighth round, when you're making a decision on a quarterback again, just like the T.J. Hawkinson argument.

I want to have a case in my mind as to why this player is going to have an exceptional season. Now, Mike, you've held your ton because I think you haven't ranked where you do because you recognize Brandon Cooks represents something to the offense. Yep. Michael Gallup represents something to the offense being healthier. Now, he does lose his safety net, which, look, has been very important to him with Dalton Schultz being gone. So I'm concerned there too. Yeah, I totally get that. That saves him from a lot of interceptions. But it also is like, I think they just need someone who is capable. I mean, before Dalton Schultz, you know, it was, it was Jason Witten at the very end of his career. You know, I had hoped it was going to be Blake Jarwin, but then it was, it was Dalton Schultz. And like fake Jarwin. Hey, who got it. When, when, when Dalton Schultz broke out, it was.

Oh, well, how's that going to do? Now he has this Dalton Schultz guy. You talk about Dalton Schultz like he's an insurance salesman that lives next door. Is that what you think of him? I think Dalton Schultz is a fine football play. I don't think he is a difference maker. So if you have, like if Jake Ferguson is, I think he'll be just fine or if it's the schoon man. I think they'll be just fine no matter, no matter what happens, because they're just running seams up the field. Just a utility guy. Yes. Poor Dalton. All right. Let's move on. Values. All right. I think, you know, the UDK, we have a bunch of consensus picks, sleepers, breakouts, bust values, players that we put into those categories that you can target or stay away from. To me, values are my favorite. We talked about on The Sleeper Show that, like, you can't hide anymore. And so I think that world of...

completely out of nowhere names is kind of gone. It's more like kind of a value argument in the sleeper category at times. We try to go really deep, you know, Jalen Warren and those guys. But the value picks to me, it's like there are categories of them. There are, sometimes there's older players that like their age, like they just can't get moved up in ADP. Like I think Kenan Allen's in that category this year where it's like. Yeah. Like the laws of physics don't allow them to get past the fourth round. Like that's not allowed because of the age. And we saw that with Frank Gore years ago. And probably Adam Thielen two years ago was that way. And so that's like a category of value. And then there are players that emerge into new roles. And we just don't know what they're going to do. So they're an unknown value. But Jason, are you going to go first here? Or was it Mike? The order was Mike. I am happy to go first. Mike might as well go first because.

Because I'm on my own over here. You're kind of on your own rankings-wise. Yes, I have this player ranked much higher than everybody else. You guys have him ranked below ADP. And it feels bad. Yeah. Yeah, I can't. Oh, if Jason feels fine. No, but Jason is, it's kind of against my brand. Jason's a lifelong truther. Yeah. Of Rashad Penny running back now for the Philadelphia Eagles as Jason makes a note. Yeah, got to move him up. Got to move Rashad Penny up. And here is my case for Rashad Penny being of value. On the field, Rashad Penny is, as Tony the Tiger would say, great. He is great. Over his past 16 games played, he is averaging over six yards per carry. For his career, it is 5.6 since the year 2000. Only six times have we ever seen a running back with 100 plus carries.

average over six yards per carry. Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles, C.J. Spillers Magic Year, Dobbins, his rookie year, Alvin Kamara, and Rashad Penny. Health is the entirety of the conversation for Rashad Penny. And last year, right, Miles Sanders was their guy. He was their Belkow running back. Going into last year, Miles Sanders had his own health concerns. The two previous seasons, he had appeared in only 12 games. That's it. Back to back years, 12 games for Miles Sanders, and that did not stop Philadelphia from giving him 70% of the running back attempts, the 11th highest mark at the running back position. Miles only saw 26 targets. Like Rashad Penny, pass catching, just it hasn't been in the profile as a professional, but Miles only saw 26 targets. And yes, the targets, they keep the ceiling.

higher, and they keep your floor higher as well. Miles was pretty hot and cold. But at the end of the year, it was still over 1,200 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, and he finished as the running back 13. So for a ninth round pick, the potential of seeing 200 plus carries, which I think Rashad Penny can hit that, and double-digit targets. It's super alluring, and yes, you have the DeAndre Swift into the mix. To me, DeAndre Swift is more of the Philadelphia Eagles just... taking a chance to see if anything is there. And Swift, to me, profiles more as a threat to Boston Scott or Kenneth Gainwell of that type of a role. I think that should the team move forward with everybody who's on the team, I think that Rashad Penny should be the heavy favorite to be the two-down grinder, which on the Philadelphia Eagles, that's a lot of touchdown upside on a very high-powered offense.

I'm not willing to move him until I get into camp. And that's fair. Because I think that this team likes Kenneth Gainwell. I believe that there was a loyalty to Rashad Penny in Seattle that we haven't witnessed yet in Philadelphia. It was certainly a flyer by them, right? I mean, I believe that the flyer they took on Rashad Penny is similar to the one that they took on DeAndre Swift. This is not a long-term deal. Finger fracture, knee sprain, hamstring, ACL, preseason knee, calf strain, hamstring, groin strain, tibia fracture. Oh, yes. That is, that's the last four years for Rashad Penny. So I take some issue with the thought that injuries. I don't get where you're, what's your point? I don't understand. I mean, it's all lower body. His hands have been, oh, no, finger fracture, never mind.

But I take a little issue with the idea that injury is the only thing because I don't know where this team is going to lay things out. I'm more than willing to move him if we see camp and it's like, okay, he's taking all the reps. Like this is a camp battle I want to watch because, you know, some of these backfield committee battles are on teams that I don't care who wins it, sort of. Philly's a team I kind of care about. You mentioned the Miles Sanders numbers last year. So if. Yeah, and Kyle's pointing out that Kenneth Gainwell is really good in the playoffs, and it's true. Like, I think that that's a possibility that Kenneth Gainwell gets more play. So, you know, the numbers that Penny's put up when he's played and gotten dedicated opportunities have been outrageous. That's all I meant with. But he clearly is overextending his body. He's running too hard. Why go six to carry when you could go five and maybe stay healthy? I'm saying health is the only conversation to me of,

Like, Rashad Penny is a great player. It's not like, well, you know, he's been okay here. No, he's, when he's on the field, he is incredible. But, I mean, granted, it's been very limited when we've seen him on the field. Think about the range of outcomes in a dynasty league on Rashad Penny right. Mm-hmm. Okay? Because there's, there's every chance that if an injury happens or he's just not the guy, you're done. That's it. Rashad Penny's career is not going to reemerge after this season. If he doesn't. produce in Philadelphia. Right. Or if he gets injured again, it's over. Yeah. Like it's just, you could just slide him off the roster. I mean, he's not going to get, if he gets signed, he's going to get signed in some capacity that it's like, it's Trey Sermon's career now. Or he could be the dude who's ironically on the same team with 1,400 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns and get a contract somewhere. Because he has, he has been great. And I would agree with Mike that if. And DeAndre Swift is going four rounds.

ahead of Rashad Penny. Yeah. I would much rather take the shot on Rashad Penny. If all of the backs in Philadelphia are healthy, I think Rashad Penny is the best one. Yeah. And that's what my argument comes down to is like, yeah, the contract in Rashad Penny is not a big investment. So for both Swift and Penny, the team is not really in. But you could, I mean, kind of for the rest of the team. as well, even though, you know, Gainwell has more team equity. Like they like the guy. He's been on the team for a few years. But just there's, there's no real contracts that you can look and go, that guy's going to for sure get it because he's getting the millions of dollars. So one of the reasons like right now I have a projected for them all to get it, which means that none of them get it in the way that matters to me because Jaylon Hurts is going to score 14 times or 10 times or 12 times around the goal line. And the other guys will be, you know, Boston Scott's still a part of this offense.

Sure. He still got Red Zone carry. So Camp, though, could really move that around for me. And Penny is certainly very, very talented. So Jason, bring up this name. Oh, it's a guy. A year late. Yeah, a year, a year late. Two years late. Actually, right on cue with this guy last year on this show. He was my bust pick this show last year. Deontay Johnson wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's really excellent. Excellent work over there. Yeah. That's a good bit. There's the big. Oh boy. You have to like raise the volume of your voice to try and talk over the drum roll. Wow. Well done. Um, yeah, Deontay Johnson is, I think a great value.

This season, last year I thought he was a bust. He was going. Well, he was a bus. You thought it and he was. Yeah, he was going way too high for a rookie quarterback to come in and to be able to support, you know, he was like a. third, fourth round pick last year. People love Deontay Johnson. 70% of rookie quarterbacks failed to support a top 36 wide receiver. And last year, Deontay Johnson finished as the wide receiver 39. He did that. He just needed one touchdown. Yeah. And he would have been top 36. He would have, but he couldn't because Kenny Pickett didn't know how to throw touchdowns yet. Thankfully, nobody taught him. Coming into year two, here's what I know for a fact, an absolute ironclad fact. He will not.

throw a worse touchdown rate. Can he pick it? Well, not. There is no... You can't throw any rates. You can't throw as few a touchdowns per passing attempt as he did last year. He won't be allowed to play football if that happens. And historically, sophomore quarterbacks... take a big step up in that specific category. Touchdown throwing is something that is not easy for rookies coming into the NFL. You saw it with Trevor Lawrence, just abysmal touchdown rate, his rookie season, his sophomore year, he's throwing league average touchdown rate. So I don't think Kenny Pickett is a star. He's not Trevor Lawrence, but he will throw a much better touchdown rate if he gets even near league average.

You're talking about success for Deontay Johnson. Deontay Johnson had 147 targets this last year. He earns targets. He is a great route runner. He is one of only eight wide receivers in the NFL to hit a 23% target share each of the last three seasons. And that list, it's, they're good. You're Cooper Cup, Justin Jefferson, Devonte Adams, AJ Brown, Stefan Diggs, Debo, Samuel, Keenan Allen, and. Deontay Johnson. So you know he's going to get the targets. Yeah, 140 plus three straight years. Touchdown variance is massive. We talk about touchdowns not being a sticky stat, and it really isn't. You look two years ago, Jacoby Myers was Deontay Johnson. Jacobi Myers had so many targets. It was like 124 targets, had almost no touchdowns. Well, he's not a touchdown scoring guy. Well, no, that's not true. He's an NFL wide receiver. And last year in only 14 games, he had six touchdowns.

with Mack Jones coming into, you know, not his rookie season. That's what's going to happen for Deontay Johnson. So to me, I think his baseline, I mean, we saw it, right? Last year is the wide receiver 39 with a rookie quarterback. And he's being drafted as the wide receiver 34. So he's being drafted around what his baseline is. If he got six touchdowns like Jacobi Myers did in, which I think is reasonable, he did that in 14 games, you're talking about a top 20 wide receiver. He would have been ahead of a lot of names that we really like, you know, ahead of DJ Moore. He would have been ahead of Chris Godwin last year if the touchdowns came. So the way that I view him as a value is, look, if you're in a PPR league, half PPR, he's a really safe pick. Because of where he's being drafted, you're basically getting his floor. You're drafting a player at his floor, and he's not going to score zero touchdowns. That just doesn't.

It was an NFL record he set this year. You don't just do that back to back years. And if you remember last year, there were those crazy plays, just like with Jacobi Myers the year prior where it's like, it's going to happen. He's on his way to the end zone and then right at the one yard line. It doesn't happen. So to me, it's just a matter of you're in a better situation. Chase Claypool is now gone. His targets are assured his quarterback will be better. The offensive line is improved. He's good if the touchdowns come. It's just a great value. It's pretty difficult to find 8.6 targets a game in the seventh round. Exactly. And so, you know, when you think about situations for your fantasy team, maybe in the seventh round, this is a player you'd start if you're drafting in a three-wide receiver league. If it's a two-wide receiver league, this is a luxury for your bench where biweeks, opportunities, injuries, you get to put 8.6 targets a game onto your team. I mean, that is.

that's a luxury, right? It's a value. I mean, okay, all right. It's a value. Thank you, Mike. Yeah, I mean, because the other options, a lot of these other players going in that range are going to be boom or bust. They're going to be very, you know, deep threats, minimal targets. Do they, you know, at Donovan People's Jones or something where, you know, the target. chair for Deonte Johnson is going to be huge. Yeah, he's a fourth year wide receiver going into his fifth year in the prime of his career, 27 years old. And if he gets eight targets a game, over the last decade, there's been 12 wide receivers that average eight targets a game in year four and year five. Every single one of them, top 20 wide receiver in year five. The hardest part for me last year was that it's what you already know, but Deontes is a great player. This was the number nine overall fantasy finisher the year before. He had over 100 receptions. He was, um,

And I think we got kind of blinded by, or I got blinded by. Big Ben wasn't good, but he was really good for Deontay. And so Kenny Pickett couldn't do it. Couldn't get him eight touchdowns, seven touchdowns, five touchdowns. One touchdown. Previous three years. One touchdown. Couldn't even get him one. All right. The name I'm going to bring up is my value pick as a player I wanted to talk about. Somaget P. Rine, running back for the Denver Broncos. This is. almost a 10th round draft pick. Very, very end of the ninth round right now on Sleeper. That puts his ADP as the running back 39, which means that both of you guys, even though you have him ranked below me, are still above ADP. Jason at 36, Mike at 26. Yeah, I'm in. I am taking the leap. I have him at 21. And you say Somaget, P Ryan, this was a player that we pretty much bemoaned every opportunity he ever had.

in Cincinnati because it represented not Mixin. And in the fantasy world, Mixen had the draft capital and was on every roster. And Samajai P. Ryan just represented a snap goblin, except for he was good. Yeah. And we really were frustrated by the fact he ended up on third down all of the time. But what Samajai P. Ryan is known for is strength in passing situations. That's why they did it. He has a lifetime catch percentage of 85.6%. And he was brought into Denver with a purpose by a brand new head coach and Sean Peyton that has a history of utilizing running backs well, especially in passing situations. He had 46 receptions last year. Do you guys realize that? I did not. I do now. 46 in Cincinnati last season since he kept using him on third.

down. And that is, you just brought it up with Charbonnet. That is a very valuable down for fantasy football. We do not know where Giovante Williams' health truly is. And that will play a factor. But I think Somagie P-Rine is being massively, massively overlooked. And I brought it up in the context of Alexander Madison, where it's like the career numbers for Alexander Madison on a yards per carry basis are not as good as what Somagie P-Rines are. And I'm not saying that Madison shouldn't be ranked higher than P-Rine. If you like Madison and you like that opportunity, go for it. But Samaji-A-Pir-Rine, the gap between them is insanity to me. Because if we go into the season under Sean Payton in this offense where we saw Latavius-Murie have value last year and other relative bums in this backfield, Samadhi-A-Pir-Rine is going to have every opportunity to be a high-value guy. And Sean Payton's come out and talked about him. You know, his quote,

And this is quoting Sean Payton. If you watch Piron, you study the tape, you see him on early downs, you see him play third down. He's a great receiver. Obviously, he could block the blitz. He's big. He's physical. He's smart. He's tough. He's built to last. So I think. Durr last. It's in my head. Everybody's head. If you were listening to this, he's built to last. Durr last. I mean, they've done, they did some good work. It's good branding way. For sure. And they've made investments on the offensive line. So I think that, you know, When you talk about putting Russell Wilson into position to succeed, it's going to come through the bread and butter of what Sean Payton has done well over the years. And we're going to know more in camp. Like this is another situation you've got to watch. I'm sure that Jason won't have them at 36 if we find out Giovante Williams is missing four games to start the year or something like that.

But maybe I'm wrong. I don't want to speak for you. That's probably right. I've got them at 32 and 36, respectively, Giovante slightly ahead of Somaget. But you're right. I mean, if you knew that Giovante was starting on the pop, then obviously those numbers would change. And I would say that one of the best bets over the last several years in fantasy football for draft season is bet against the guys that are injured and in so doing. The guys that are going to get the opportunity are great bets. So this is probably a value. I just want people to understand, like weeks 11, 12, 13, and 14 last year. Samadji P. Ryan was the running back 2, 10, 7, and 22. He's good. He also out-snap Joe Mixed in 43 to 23. In the AFC championship game against Kansas City, there is a lot of confidence in Samajie P. Ryan among the coaching circles that is clear.

And I think we just disliked him because we put him in a category of that's just a backup. That's all he'll ever be. To be frank, that's what I've done with Alexander Madison. Makes it harder to get on board. Now, I could be proven wrong. And I could be proven wrong here by Samajapirine. But I don't think Javante Williams is ready to take a decent workload. And I think even when he's ready to come back, if you give third down to Samajai Pryan and some other opportunities, he'll be fine. Well, Sean Peyton has historically used. multiple running backs. Like when Camara was doing his damage, Mark Ingram was there. And Mark Ingram was also pretty good. And he was the main guy in terms of carries. Yeah. I mean, to me, you know, the difference here of Somaget P. Ryan's ADP versus Madison's is if, if Javante is healthy, Javante is the starting running back. He is the 1A.

or just the overall number one. So that's the, that's the difference here between those two players is Madison is set up to be the starter. But this is, I mean, this is fantastic news for, like, I've been celebrating for Duralas for, I've been celebrating that Alexander Madison is finally getting his opportunity. So B-Rind was like that guy for me. I, I would, when it was draft season, it's like, this guy is really, really good. And then he unfortunately got drafted to a Washington team that, had no idea what they were doing back then, and he just kind of, the beginning of his career ended up getting wasted, goes to the Cincinnati, kind of recovers his value. And I think he has a huge opportunity. You know he had a lost year in Miami too? It really seemed like he did not even remember that. He had a lost year in Miami where he had a total of five opportunities in seven weeks. Really seemed like you were saying he had a bad drinking problem. Wait.

He said that? Wasted? Yeah, he goes there. He gets wasted. The drinking problem was Washington. Yeah. And their management. Yeah. And this has been tweeted by our main account. But in 13 of 16 season, Sean Payton's Saints offense is finished with top five in total running back fantasy points. 13 and 16 years. Yeah. Sean Peyton and running backs is a fantasy goal. So, yeah, it'll be, you know, it is a bit of a, I don't know, a later career. prime for Somaget P. Ryan that we might be seeing here soon, but he's established himself as a value. And 46 receptions last year is wild. So for both of these, like P. Ryan and Rashad Penny, it's trying to get out in front of it. Like if you are drafting right now, you know, we don't have all the information. So this is how we are projecting these players. Once camp news comes out and they're saying, oh, man.

Javante is not on the field. P. Rines, ADP is going to go up. The Eagles can't. Rashad Penny's out there getting all the first team work. His ADP is going to skyrocket. So we're kind of bringing these guys up right now. So if you are drafting right now, I think that, and I like Pryan. Both of these running backs to me are worth the late round gamble investment. All right, that is going to do it for today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Reminder, check out the Ultimate Draft Kit. The Draft Analyzer launches on Saturday for the UDK Plus, so another big feature hitting the UDKK. You can find out about everything that's included in the Ultimate Draft Kit at Ultimate DraftKit.com. It will be the number one tool you can rely on to prepare for your fantasy drafts and give you an advantage over your league mates. Thank you once again for joining us.

We'll be back with another episode on Thursday. Until then, stay safe, everybody, and we'll see you then. Goodbye. Bill to last. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.