Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early QB Rankings Show

And it's something I did a huge breakdown. I'm still trying to work out if I'm going to do an article on it or not, talking about quarterbacks who posted a top 12 week. So how many teams are in the NFL, guys? 32. And here's the number of quarterbacks who posted a top 12 scoring week. 40. That's just an insane stat. That's incredible. And so when we say...

You know, draft your quarterback later, it isn't because quarterbacks don't matter in the NFL or because quarterbacks... Or that there aren't really good ones. Don't score a lot of fantasy points. It's because there are so many who will be able to score enough where the difference between wasting one of those early picks where there aren't so many guys in their positions, it hurts you by that. You're losing more than you're gaining is the whole issue. And we want...

are listeners to gain more than they lose. I believe it was 42 last year. So we got back to back. Not an anomaly, is I'm saying. This is happening. And part of this, before we get into the rankings, is to look back a little bit and say, not only did we see that with the quantity last year, but you also saw, like, Jason used the phrase wasting a pick. And I think he's right. It is a waste. It could be a waste of a pick.

You know, Cam Newton was the number one quarterback last year. Cam Newton's draft position was nowhere near where we expected the number one quarterback to go. Right. Yeah, yeah. And so the variable of who might end up at that spot, a lot of people spent high draft picks on Andrew Luck after the year he had, and a lot of people will spend a high pick on Cam Newton this year. That doesn't mean Cam Newton will fail or fall on his face. It just means...

The investments from your league mates on quarterbacks is an opportunity for you to take advantage of better values at running back and wider series. Cam Newton was. I've just, I pulled it up to you get his ADP. He was the 15th quarterback off the board in the 10th round. Where was Brady? Tom Brady was. Sixth round. Yeah, sixth round, seventh quarterback. Where was Carson Palmer? A couple of these guys. Yeah, that's what I was going to bring up. Some of these quarterbacks who went a little bit later.

did not cost you an early pick and were great. Carson Palmer was in the 11th round of the draft, the 17th quarterback off the board. You had Tyrod Taylor who had a great year, who was the 20th off the board in the 13th round. Where about Ryan Fitzpatrick? Ryan Fitzpatrick. Can you even find him? Yeah. Is not in the data set. And he was great. Now let's look at the top, right? Up near the top, Peyton Manning.

He was the third off the board. Andrew Luck was the first. Andrew Luck was the first off the board. Matt Ryan was up near there. So you've got some... Now, clearly, some of the top guys, they will score more, right? There's a reason they're ranked in a certain order, and we're doing our rankings. We think some guys are better than others. But all these top guys we're talking about...

Generally speaking, are not going to be on any of our three teams because of what you have to give up when you draft them. And that's the whole point. Really, it's hard to find expert fantasy players who draft quarterbacks high. But it is so tough to do if you haven't done that yet to trust that you will be okay later with a lower round quarterback. And another important thing for listening to the fantasy footballers through the season.

We every week pick our three guys. We pick someone off of waivers who is owned in less than, or is available in more than 50% of the leagues. And we do that to stream the position. Last year we ended up with a, do you remember our ranking? I thought it was the six, quarterback six on average. Basically every single week through the average of the year, we had the sixth best quarterback from the waiver wire. From the waiver wire. It wasn't even a guy who was drafted and every week on the waiver wire. So you can do it.

Yeah, and so if this is your first introduction to that philosophy, stay with us. Stay with us on that. It is. You got to stay strong. The draft room can be pretty rough. Oh, yeah. People will mock you. And I will admit that it happens to me as well when you get to a certain point in the draft. Start feeling it. And you start seeing, I mean, I think last year I took Matt Ryan in the sixth round in one of my leagues, partially because we had high hopes for him. And when you do that,

And you have an expectation. It also makes it harder to switch that guy out and start streaming. Because Matt Ryan started the, he'll figure it out. Well, he'll figure it out here soon. And then it was harder for me to move on to the next guy. Same thing was Sam Bradford last year. I thought Sam Bradford would be something he wasn't. It took a while for me to chaid off. If I had just been streaming the position, I'd have moved right into success earlier. So number one on our consensus rankings, it's not Brett Fav. I thought it was Fav.

Oh, Aaron Rogers last year, 31 touchdowns, just under 4,000 yards. This is a guy who belongs at number one. Yeah, he had a terrible year. I mean, that's how people think of last year for Aaron Rogers, even though it was still fantastic. He had a great year. But he was, you know, he has been. Not a Rogers year, though. No, certainly not. I mean, Rogers, he is the all-time.

In the history of the NFL has the highest quarterback rating of all active or former NFL players. Aaron Rogers. Really? Yeah, he is the best career rating with 104. So he is great. Here's the difference with Rogers from fantasy because not every great quarterback is a great fantasy quarterback. Over three of the last four years, Aaron Rogers has been a top three guy.

I mean, that's just, that's what you look for. If you are going to spend a high pick, if you know, oh, man, I just can't do the streaming thing. I've got to get someone high. Or two-quarterback league or the need for a quarterback is much higher because the demand for the position's higher. Yeah, and that's really, I'm so happy you said that because we got some people last year that said they tried to stream in two-quarterback leagues. It's going to be harder, much harder. Almost impossible. So if you are in a two-quarterback league is really important you understand.

You're not streaming quarterbacks. You need to draft the quarterbacks like you do running backs in a two-quarterback. Everything flips because now you don't need 12. You need 24 plus backups. Yeah, exactly. And Jason said it. I mean, last year, Rogers is number one in our rankings because of his consistency in fantasy and in reality where he has so many years of success in a row. Now, last year, it was strange. His rating, we talked about a career rating of 104. He was 92 last year.

You know, he had seven less touchdowns, about 500 less yards, and he had 5% lower completion rating. What happened? What happened was Jordy... Sorry, I've been waiting to get that in on the show forever from... Mighty wind. Mighty wind reference. Someone is going to identify with that. The rest of the people are going to be confused. I'm done. I'm done for the show. But Jordy Nelson was gone, and Eddie Lacey underwhelmed.

And Devante Adams stinks and Randall Cobb underwhelmed. He's not a one. He's not a one. And so you saw all that. And then I think what you saw in Rogers was him pressing to make things happen, held under the ball too long, and made some mistakes. But look, before last year, you had six straight years of over 100 passer rating. Very low interception totals. So that's great.

for fantasy, even compared to a guy like Breeze who has good years. Breeze normally is in the 15-16 interception. So I don't think you're going to have much debate over Aaron Rogers being slotted in there. I think the guy that we need to talk about now is number two. And that's Cam Newton, last year's number one, quarterback slash running back. You know, he had just such an incredible year where, what, he had 10 touchdowns on the ground. Is that accurate? That is accurate. And 35 through the air.

It was impressive because we went into last year thinking he had no wide receivers and he made wide receivers out of thin air. And now... Pretty much. And now he has some. He's got those guys that he developed something real with and then... And we're talking Ted Ginn, Corey Brown. Cottry was there last year and then you had, obviously, Greg Olson had a huge year. The biggest question for me is you're talking of an extreme, an outlier.

Career best year for Cam Newton, 35 touchdowns through the air. That's 11 better than his second highest total. He's thrown 24th. That was his highest touchdown total through the air until this year. Can he duplicate that kind of success while maintaining 600 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground? I have a great question for you. Because I think it's very possible he can.

I think it's actually more likely that he repeats, not necessarily the numbers exactly, but the kind of success you saw in the field. So let's presume for a minute he does. He runs for 8 to 10 touchdowns. He throws for 33 to 35. Where is an appropriate place to take the leap and take Cam Newton if you knew that was his production level? If you knew he was going to do that? Yeah. Then you're...

Where would you take him? Like you know that that's his stat line. Just reprint last year's line. Where could you viably take Cam Newton in light of all that we just said about streaming the position? Where you're not wasting the pick.

where you're not wasting the pit. And I would say the third round. Third round was what popped in my head as well. Third round is where once those first two rounds of guys are gone, you see a little bit of drop-off and talent, and those guys are the ones that I'm willing to sacrifice the third round and on. So there's been drafts that I've been in this year where Aaron Rogers is usually in the third, and sometimes I've seen him, you know, get lower. I would say he's going, you know, as high as the second. Get lower.

Get loathe. Limbo. It's just one of those things where I'm going to be put to the test this year with Aaron Rogers, very similar to how you're asking the hypothetical question on Cam. Okay, when are you getting the sweats for Aaron Rogers? What round? Is it the third round? Your hands start shaking. The third round is where I'm going, eh, it's worth considering, and I won't do it. The fourth round is where I'm sweating. I'm going, oh. The pits? You've pitted out? I think I got to get him in the fourth.

And I don't usually do that, but that would be interesting. So one component that we're going to have in our draft kit that we release here in the next couple of months is the risk factor for positions. So I just want to get a gauge for Cam Newton before we move on to number three. One being safe, 10 being risky. Where do you have him at quarterback this year? On that sliding scale, there are 1 to 10.

How risky is Cam Newton? How safe is Cam Newton for putting up that kind of a stat line? I would... Sorry, do you have a number? Yeah, well, I was going to say there's two different things here, because when we're talking about that draft kit risk number, I think it's going to be very low with Cam Newton. A low risk. A low risk because he runs so much. His baseline in his legs is what allows there to not be a lot of risk where I think... Okay, so that answers the question. Yeah, I don't think he's going to finish, you know...

bottom half of the QB-1s because of his legs. So what number comes into your head? You know, I would give him like a four. If 10 is high and one is like no risk at all. 10 is risky, one is not risky. Yeah, I would give him a four, maybe even a three. I think three is about where I have. I would have it at the five or the six. Okay. The reason why, or talking about Cam Newton's dominance, I was talking about I broke down quarterbacks five times. He was the number one quarterback.

which is by far and away the most for any quarterback. So that's why his numbers are so insane for fantasy. If he wasn't number one, though, you were getting not a great week, essentially from Cam Newton. He did have two third places, but besides that, you're talking much lower. He carried a lot of people for a lot of weeks towards the end of the year. Yeah, I was one of those. Interesting stat for Cam going into this next year. He has 31 games with both a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown in the same game.

currently tied for the most ever with Steve Young. In history. In history. So I think he's going to break it. Did it in less than half the games? Yeah. All right, Tom Brady. Tom Brady's number three on this list. I think the impressive thing about Brady last year was the yardage total. He threw for over 4,700 yards, 36 touchdowns. He also finds a way to sneak a couple touchdowns during the course of the year, which, look, it all adds up.

It was a valuable part of Andrew Lux's game a couple years ago. When he put up a really big season, it's something that doesn't really change for Brady. He gets the opportunity if he's on that half-yard line to just somehow snap the ball and jump before everybody else wakes up. I don't know how he does it, but it's clearly a gift that him and Flacco work out together or something like that. But Brady dealt with injury.