Fantasy Football 2017 - This or That Decisions + AFC East Breakdown

18 range. But I wouldn't be surprised if Edelman ends up above Cooks in the final rankings. And Edelman is a 26 wide receiver off the board where Cooks is 13. No, not at all. What you brought up in the beginning about efficiency per target, what that says is that you're going to have more volatility. It sounds like, oh, that's a really bad step for Julian Edelman. But he's been successful with that kind of efficiency because his volume is there. And...

Everyone is worried about his volume with Brandon Cook's coming to town. I'm not. I look back at 2007 when Randy Moss had 23 touchdowns at 160 targets. You want to compare him to Randy Moss? No, no, no, no, no, no, no. I'm saying that's my point. Like, you can't. When he gets the best wide receiver in football. No, you can't compare Brandon Cooks to Randy Moss. But even still, my point is with that Randy Moss, Wes Welker, in that Julian Edelman role, had 145 targets.

Julian Edelman, to me, his role is safe, it's carved out. I will say this, though, for the Patriots, unlike a lot of teams, you had a bunch of offensive weapons to a bunch of teams. That doesn't always...

you know, turn into just more scoring because the game script will change and now the running game takes over and they slow the clock. The Patriots are the type of team that will step on your throat while you are on the ground and they will rack the points up and they will win by 28 points if they can. And so I believe there's going to be a lot of fantasy value to be had. I'm fine with Grunk. I'm fine with Cooks more in a best ball because I don't have to predict the touchdowns.

And I love Julian Edelman at the value. That's how I see the pass catching core there. See, here's the thing. They're already fourth in yards per game. They're already third in points per game. And by the end of the year, this is why I've talked about. Brandon Cooks will have those high wide receiver two numbers. But when you've played him every single week, is he actually helping you. And so I'm just going to read you a couple names who are going in that Brandon Cook's range and can see what the difference is. All right. So T. Y. Hilton, Mari Cooper.

Doug Baldwin, now Brandon Cooks, Hopkins, Pryor, Watkins, DeMaris, Thomas. What you're choosing? But I'm saying all of those other guys are the top targets on their team. That's what you're choosing. You're choosing the offense in New England, and you're sacrificing being the one. The kind of alpha guaranteed. I would take Cooks over Hopkins. Hopkins is the guaranteed one. And that's, that's.

Fine. I was just pointing out, like, where he's going, why I feel like he's being drafted, overdrafted. It's because those guys are all the one on their team. New England ends this season. Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, New York. New York, New York. Oh, I was like, Giants? Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, New York. Okay. That's really nice. All right, let's talk about the running backs. You bring in Gillisley, you bring in Rex Burkhead. You already have Dion Lewis, James White.

Last year we saw Ligarrett Blunt, but he was pigeonholed into this first and second down goal line role, and it served him well, fantasy-wise. But Bill Belichick's come out. He said, look, we don't want to be pigeonholed. We don't want the defense to know, hey, when D.L. Lewis or James White are on the field, it's a passing situation for the running back. And when Ligarra Blunt's on the field, we're definitely running you down in your throat. They wanted to bring in guys that can play four downs.

It seems like he believes Rex Burkhead definitely is that guy. He's talked about Gillisley that way. And then we saw Gilse to get the first goal line carry in camp. So lay this out for me. What is the real ceiling? And what is the floor? Because I think I get caught up with Mike Gilsey and I say, oh my goodness, this could be amazing. And then I also, then I pull myself back. I go, well, what if. It could be terrible? What if Dionne Lewis really has a role? And what if Rex Burkhead catches Belichick's eye and.

Look, there's volatility there. Yeah, there is a lot. And it's, you got to pay, you know, it's not too bad. Where is, Tolgillisly's going 407 in a standard league. So that's still fine. Last year, Legerick Blunt, 18 rushing touchdowns. The team had 19 rushing touchdowns. Zero went to another running back. The only other one was Jacoby Brissette.

They found that role and they said, okay, Legerick Blunt, this is all you. Why I have faith in Gillisley is because he's a better well-rounded player but can do the kinds of things on the ground that Ligarrett Blunt can do. Mike Gillis was unbelievably efficient the last two years, not just one. I believe he led the league in yards per carry. He's an excellent player. And you can go to shotgun with Mike Gillisly and not go, oh, well, they're going to throw.

Well, no, we may be running because you have a very versatile running back like Andy was talking about. Now, could Burke had kind of eat into that? I guess it's possible, but you're just, you're taking the shot. Similar to Brandon Cooks, but I'm more willing to go in in the fourth round on someone who I think could be a running back one. Yeah, Gillisly is.

extremely talented i know he was a backup last year but if you watch film if you look at metrics he's extremely talented he goes to a high power offense everything looks rosy and i'm a big believer in him and the offense which is why in a pros versus joes i just drafted him very high but that's a best ball league that's a you get all the touchdowns you don't i don't have to make any of the start sit decisions all the touchdowns uh you know i

In a normal league, in a home league, in a redraft league, I'm really afraid of Gillisly in the fourth round. I don't think I'm going to take him because we have to keep in mind what history says about Patriots running backs. Yeah, I mean, last year, Lageret Blunt. Yeah, not just last year. Last year, LeGarrett Blunt got all of the touchdowns. But literally Bill Belichick came out and said, I don't like that predictability. Bill Belichick says a lot of things. Sure. But my point is he, if you look at how he's coached,

He has not coached with that kind of predictability until last year. The last five years, here's the top placing fantasy finish for their running back. You got blunt last year with eight. You got blunt the year before 36th, Vereen, 22nd. Ridley, 33rd. You got to go back five years to find Ridley when he was the 11th. Sure. But you can go back, what is it, the two years ago. It was Dionne Lewis for everything until he got injured. And...

I think it's more... I'm just saying high risk. Yeah, absolutely. I'm not going to argue against the risk. I just, I think there was some volatility involved in injuries that prevented him getting an actual workhorse running back. But those things can happen again. Oh, yeah. Of course they can, but you have to go with the probability. Are you comfortable with them in the fourth? Yes. Okay. Let's talk about the Miami Dolphins. Ten and six last year ended the season in a flurry.

It was the Jay Ajai show. Towards the second half of the year, he had the Monster Games. And the question for Jay Ajai is, do you believe, right? Fantasy owner, do you believe in Jay Ajai? I polled the listeners. Three to one, they chose Melvin Gordon over Jay Jai. Really? They did. Last year, Ajai finished 11th. And I think what was both impressive and not impressive about Jay Jai was the past catching side of things. He was the basement.

when it comes to pass catching. No one was really worse. He was 10 yards a game, two targets a game, not involved, not a piece of the puzzle, which was a little strange because he was capable of doing that in college, but it wasn't part of the game plan. So starting with Jay Ajai, do you fall in the Melvin Gordon or the Ajai camp when those two are heads up? And what do you really foresee Adam Gase doing? Is this offense all Jay Ajay's?

I do fall in the Melbourne Gordon camp along with the listeners if I have to take one of those two. But I like both guys. That's not an indictment of Jay Ajay. I think Jay Ajay is good. Andy, you brought up the passing. I mean, his final year at Boise State, he had 50 receptions. He is a very capable receiving back. I wonder if he emailed some of those clips to gays this off season. That's what I would have done. I would have been like.

Scoot that over there. He has room for improvement. Just watching it as the coach walks up. Oh, I didn't see you there. What are you doing? I was just busy catching some passes. Putting something up on the big projector. I didn't know you were here. Wait, don't we need like a British accent? Isn't Ajai from London? Oh, we got, we messed up big time, fellas. It's one way to look at it. Ajai is the center of the offense. They clearly have.

committed to him they did last year they found success they made the playoffs i don't see them going all right well let's blow that up they're going to stick to that and i believe from college that he can get the job done but i don't love the offense as a as a whole for miami even with all the oh my goodness nobody's been a better hype train than yeah everybody's the best player out of camp in miami

No, but I mean, if I'm comparing that against Melvin Gordon and the Los Angeles Chargers, I see an offense and a better quarterback and more scoring opportunities than I see with JJ. All right. The Dolphins, 24th in total offense last year, 17th in scoring, added Julius Thomas to the Arsenal this year, but pretty much the same offense that you were looking at. Same players. Same players. You know, you got the extra hype of Devante Parker being the greatest player in the history of the world right now. But.

I, you know, just echoing what you're saying, Jason, it's not all rosy for an offense when they finish the way they finished. I think people saw momentum and they saw some efficiency from Tannahill at times. For those looking at Julius Thomas briefly, before we talk about the wide receivers, you know, for Julius Thomas to make an impact in this offense, everything has to change for the way they use tight ends. Last year, they barely targeted him 31st in the league in terms of only 4.6 targets per game. Not good in terms of.

You know, maybe they didn't have a weapon, but Mike likes Deon Sims, and Deon Sims was there last year. I was pulling it up. I mean, Dion Sims kind of had a bit of a run in the second half of the season. And by run, I mean, he made a blip on the radar. Like an eight-yard run. Yeah, like an end-a-round. Yeah. I mean, but he was getting, you know, 40 yards a game or so. Okay.

So nobody wants to tuck tight in there. Julius Thomas outside your top 12, top 15? Yeah, I'm not buying. I'm not buying it. All right. Let's focus on Parker and Landry. Kenny Stills, I guess we can talk about him too. Yep. Landry last year was 14th in PPR leagues, 34 fewer targets than the year before, but still, you know, very consistent. I mean, 14th is impressive. Slot receiver, consistent week to week. Love him is a wide receiver two.

Are you buying into the Parker hype at all? I'm no. I am. I am buying into the Parker hype a little bit. I think with the changing of the offense and the talent of Parker, you saw Tanna Hill last year surprisingly have a pretty decent deep ball, right? I mean, Kenny Stills was able to get past the offense and get the – Pass the offense? Past the defense. Oh.

He ran past the offensive line. It's like, you're telling me. It's like Madden when you run off sides before the ball of snap, but then you get back. Yeah, exactly. So I do buy into the hype because sometimes you need to take these. But translate that, though. What does that translate into? It translates into a later round pick that you have the upside of a guy who could.

end up coming out with over a thousand yards and nine touchdowns and be a solid producer for a wide receiver too. I like that. You know, am I saying he will do that? No, my rankings don't, but I buy into the hype where where he's going in the draft, it's worth taking that gamble because he has the talent and the opportunity to take that step forward. Every year, players take massive steps forward. If you can...

pinpoint which guy that was, your team is great for that. I think he's one that has a realistic shot. And he would have to take a pretty big step. You can check out his reception in the ultimate draft get. I'll give you a little hint, though. It's not good. I mean, he has a lot of growth as a wide receiver that has to happen. He's a first round talent. And you stack that on top of Landry being a better target in the offense and JJ being more of the focal point.

You know, that's a situation in Miami that's similar to what I think philosophically they look at in Jacksonville and they say, hey, look, if we want a chance to go on the long run that they had at the end of the year, we cannot put it all in Ryan Tannenhill. We cannot put it all on Blake Bortos. We need to let Leonard Fortnet, J. Ajai, you know, the short passing game to Landry be a catalyst for success. So Landry was impressive last year, but he was having some big plays. He was being rather efficient.