Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early WR Rankings Part 1

incredibly hot that DeAndre Hopkins was. And that, JJ's article exactly talks about that too. He said, Evans reminded him of Hopkins from the previous year. Yeah, that's what reminds me of too, where Hopkins was at a kind of an untenable pace in the first half of that year. And the Texas defense was bad. Exactly. Which they shouldn't have been. And then they were great. And then Hopkins numbers deflated. And you look at that data over the last decade of those double digit touchdown years for receivers. And you just pretty much have to assume.

regression here. At least I do. I don't see how to not. With Jordy, I still took four touchdowns away from him. He landed at 10 for this season. For Mike Evans, I mean, look at 2015. The top three tied for number one at wide receiver touchdowns was Doug Baldwin, Brandon Marshall, and Alan Robinson. They all had 14 touchdowns. When you get those double digit touchdowns, it's hard to replicate that. The only guys in the last decade who have replicated their season when they've got a double digit,

touchdown season are basically Hall of Fame guys, AJ Green, Beckham, Des Bryant, Fitz. Des Bryant again. It looks like Calvin Johnson did it one time. 2010 to 2011. He had 12 and then 16. Calvin's a great example of what you can just look at and say, hey, who would be a better goal line touchdown guarantee than Calvin Johnson? And he went 12, 5, 12, 16, 5, 12, 8.

Great seasons, but touchdowns aren't guaranteed. We all know this. And I would say a good principle to live by is double-digit touchdowns are not guaranteed. Right. Okay, yeah, it doesn't mean that we think we're not pushing Mike Evans off. Look, everybody we talk about is great. They're in our top 10. That's why this is the top 10 episode. But perspective on Mike Evans, I think, is one of the most needed aspects of the wide receiver analysis you're going to get this off season.

because the guy next, he could finish ahead of him. And his name is Des Bryant. Number seven, Des Bryant, 28 years old. It's been a couple of years since he's been that fantasy elite player. And we haven't seen it with Prescott yet. 2012, he was the third best, 2013. He was the seventh best. 2014. It was the fourth best. So he had a run of three years in a row. You might call that earning the trust of fantasy owners to draft you high.

Then the injuries happened in the past couple of years, hasn't played a full season. What's the story with Des Bryant this year, Mike? I know you've done a lot of thought about Des Bryant. You have him ranked ahead of Mike Evans, I think? I have Des Bryant number five, yes. So I have him ahead of Evans and ahead of green. So from an ADP standpoint, he could be on your board, maybe the best.

value of these top seven guys i would not disagree with that and i would disagree that he hasn't gotten it done with with dac he didn't have a top five finish but i mean he look he played 13 games quote unquote he really only played 12 because he was in that that final week got one target didn't do anything else and they got pulled but and i'm not going to

Take these away. The games against the Giants, week one, and then much later in the season, the entire cowboy offense struggled. Dak struggled mightily. Yes, they have to play the Giants twice a year. I get that. I think that Dak can improve. But here is the deal with Dak, Prescott, and Des Bryant. Against teams not named the Giants, Des Bryant averaged, five receptions for 83 yards and a full touchdown.

I mean, you can't pro-rate that over the season. But if you did, it would be a lot of touchdowns. Those numbers are astronomical. I'm not saying he's going to hit that, but just he was. It's a big enough sample size to you. Yes. He was fantastic throughout the course of the season. And that was, I mean, he had to deal with injury. Throw on top of that. The free agency is not gone very well.

for the Dallas Cowboys. I'm sorry, Brooks. But he's weeping over in the corner. Here's a situation. JJ Wilcox, Barry Church, safeties, gone. Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, defensive backs, gone. I mean, they have not improved. Tony Romo. Gone. Yeah, the best backup quarterback in the league. Gone. You can replace some of these guys, but you cannot replace all of that in one season. So.

there is a high chance that their defense regresses. What does that do? Oh, we put more game scripts in favor of Des Bryant and Dak Prescott. So I just don't, do not overlook him as his early ADP. I mean, he's in the 203 in PPR. I mean, that would just be a delight to get Des Bryant at that spot.

Anything to add on Des Briner? Can move on to number eight here? I think we can move on. He's great. He's a touchdown. Man, when I look at touchdowns since 2011, I mean, he is the number one. He leads it, and he's missed quite a few games himself. He's just as reliable as they come in the red zone. He enjoys the end zone. He really does. All right. Number eight, hello, sunshine. It's Michael Thomas. We're going there. Michael Thomas. Look, welcome to the world.

These two guys. 24 years old, you finished number seven at wide receiver last year. And all your team did was say, well, we like you a lot. Let's trade Brandon Cooks away. Michael Thomas, I love him. You talk about a range of possible outcomes when a rookie does that. You don't know. You don't have the three-year run. So range of possible outcomes, Michael Thomas. Huge. Not guaranteed. That being said, I believe.

I believe in Michael Thomas. I love everything I see on tape. I love everything about Drew Breeze. Apparently, it's very chic this offseason to speculate about how long you can play as a quarterback because Drew Breeze came out the other day and thought he could play to 45 or something like that. I guess it's the new. I'll play to 46. I'll play to 47. Yeah, it seems that way. But that being said, you know, maybe we haven't seen decline in Drew Bree's play. And so if you told me, hey, I'm going to get two more.

elite Drew Brees years and what Michael Thomas is going to be in that offense and how important he's going to be in that offense. Sign me up because I think he, it's just going to be a nice, nice baseline for Michael Thomas Sands injury. When it comes to Des Bryant and Michael Thomas, these are the two guys. When we put out our first early rankings, I had Des Bryant as my number four.

after the top three. And I was trying my best to kill Michael Thomas. I think if you listened a few weeks ago. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. His value. Yeah, so I know. I'm with you. To kill his fantasy lore, if you will. You'd have to cut that, Brooke. I want that on tape. Since that time, I've done a lot of research. And my narratives that I wanted to build Des Bryant up,

you know, tear down Michael Thomas, a rookie who caught 70 plus percent of his passes. Look, there's going to be regression there, and I watched a lot of film, and I did statistical analysis of other guys. I mean, you look at Marquis Colston as a great example, right? Marquis Colston came in and had a great, very, very similar rookie year. Well, did Colston regress in that sophomore season when he was, I mean, extraordinarily similar? No, the next season, he put up 98.

for 1,2002 yards and 11 touchdowns. Now with Brandon Cooks out of the way, I think Michael Thomas is one of the guys I am actually highest on. He's my number six wide receiver. I don't. And you did try. I know you try. And whenever I'm trying to tear a guy down and he goes the other direction for me, it kind of sticks as a my guy candidate. And so for Michael Thomas, I really do believe I think his ADP value, you know, from here on now, I will,

talk a lot of garbage on him to try to bring that down. Sure. The thing about Michael Thomas... You're trying to kill him, so... It's one way to do it. And there's a lot of analysts, and I don't disagree with this data because they're numbers, and you can't argue with them. But they talked about... Drew Brees doesn't hyper-target someone. There's never an incredible market share of targets going to a specific player on the Saints.

that's fine with me. So they're just saying, you know, the range of possible outcomes for Michael Thomas, can he be that top level fantasy-wide receiver? I think that he can be. I'm with Jason. From week three on, right? Remember he was a rookie, so he played, he had a couple weeks to acclimate. Easing in. Yeah, he eased in for his first two games. From weeks three on out of 12 possible games, well, he missed one.

So out of 11 possible games, nine times he was a wide receiver 2 or better, a wide receiver 2, 4 times, a wide receiver 1, 5 times. Those are outrageous numbers for Michael Thomas. And now 117 targets, 1,200 yards, 8 touchdowns of Drew Breeze's production last year is gone. That has to siphon out over the team, and maybe they find...

someone to take a giant leap, maybe Sneed or Kobe Fleener or an unknown player at this time takes a huge chunk of that. But you just give Michael Thomas just a little sample of those 1,200 yards and he touchdowns. And he easily is in that possibility of he can be in the top five. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I love Michael Thomas as well. So I haven't rated very high. Number nine is T.Y. Hilton.

T.Y. Hilton comes in at number nine. The mental picture I have of T.Y. Hilton is you've got all these big boy wide receivers, right? All these mammals inside of the club, right? The top 10 club. And here's T.I. Hilton on the outside. And he is trying to shoulder the door open. And everybody inside is saying, yeah, but have you ever had eight touchdowns? And he's like,

No, but let me in. Let me in. I see T.Y. Hilton just, and they're like, why should we let you in T.Y. Hilton? And they're looking through the people, and he's just doing his ridiculous touchdown dance. Look, he's never had eight touchdowns. If you are going to go project eight touchdowns for T.Y. Hilton, I'm going to disagree with you. He's been five or above, but he's been five to seven in all five of his ears.

Super reliable. From a target perspective, you know what you're going to get. Last year it went way up because of the lack of Moncrief most likely, but also the growth of Andrew Luck helps. Last year, he had 91 receptions. He was the league leader in yards 1448, and he had six touchdowns. Now, part of the confidence that I have in T.Y. Hilton, and I think it's range of possible outcomes for Hilton, he could decrease quite a bit.

Sure. He's not a guarantee to... He could downcrease, as Jason would say. He's got a guy... He's a guy that could end up in the 17 to 20 range if things don't bounce the right way. That being said, I'm tired of doubting him as the top-tier talent. Andrew Luck is a great quarterback. T.Y. Hilton's going to be a part of that great offense. He plays pretty much every game. He's been very reliable, played through, you know, aches and pains. I think he's had 3-16 game seasons, 2-15 game seasons.

You know, I love it. He only had 69 receptions two years ago, but that was the year where Andrew Luck was banged up and hurt. Sure. T.I. Hilton, number nine, feels fine. Yeah, he's, he was, in fact, five points, fantasy points better a game without Moncrief. And Moncrief did miss some serious time. But I'm with Andy of the, I have been a Hilton doubter. A doubter of his, just basically his whole career. I remember.

two years ago or so a bet making a water bet with andy of just of his production and it was and it didn't even go that high it was like a thousand and six receiving touches i'm like there's just no way there's no way that that teeny little t y hilton's going to get that done and yet he just continues to get it done every year they're in a uh a pass friendly offense

Even with Moncrief there, if Moncrief could play all 16 games, Hilton is still a wide receiver one to me. Yeah, one of the things I like about the fact that he has not ever had eight touchdowns is that in my rankings, when I'm projecting him out and I statted these guys out, I gave him six touchdowns next year, which I think is very doable. And he ends up as my number eight wide receiver.

let's say I'm wrong and he gets five touchdowns or four. He's not going to move as much as being wrong on some of the other guys that you have to get that 9-10 touchdown number from. So when you're talking about a guy in T.Y. Hilton that you're going to get in that second round, you've got, I think, a little bit more reliable weekly starter because one of the things we have to start keeping in mind when we get later in these wide receivers is,