Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early WR Rankings Part 1

late season games. He had a few really big games when it didn't matter to my fantasy team as much. And so I had made the comment that, hey, he didn't even help me when it mattered. He's more annoying to own than Antonio Brown because the toe, he has more variables this offseason than the other two guys and the fact that his offensive coordinator has left the system. Are we worried about Julio Jones? No, no, it's relative, right? I mean, maybe more than the other two.

But please put him on my roster. Yes. I will be annoyed with Julio Jones. You got the big three running backs, the big three wide receivers. And now we get to the interesting guys where the order changes from analyst to analyst and from draft room to draft room. I couldn't be happier with our number four, though. By the way. I agree. Before I spout the name, I do want to remind people about the ultimate draft kit, which...

has a very, very special wide receiver focus this year as well. Last year, Ultimate Draft Kit, you get all of our player projections and all of the sleepers and breakouts and profile videos. You've heard us talking about it. But this year we brought Matt Harmon from NFL.com. He does reception, one of the leading minds over there, and he has agreed to put...

He's charting 50 wide receivers for our ultimate draft kit. And if you know what, when I say charting, maybe you don't understand what the reception is. He actually goes through and he individually charts out how players succeed against different coverage and against route types and gives you the perspective to identify breakouts, players that are very complete wide receivers versus incomplete wide receivers.

It kind of helps give you an independent viewpoint of the wide receiver position to help you predict and draft the right guys. And so very interesting stuff to look at too. So just to remind everybody, you can go pre-order that at ultimate draft kit.com. We're very, very excited about it this year. We know you'll love it. Number four on our list, I love it. It's A.J. Green. No, it's not Mike Evans. I feel like I'm going to have to say that. A couple of more times. A couple more times. 29 years old, A.J. Green.

I don't know what it is about AJ Green. Maybe it's the fact he's had a couple injuries. He just doesn't seem to get the respect that he deserves. Stability at the quarterback position. You know, his three seasons in the last five where he played 16 games, he finished 4, 4, and 7. Okay. I just don't know what there is to dislike about AJ Green other than the fact he's coming off an injury.

Why isn't he a top five guy against him? Well, Mike's got him number seven. Tell us your rationale for that. That's good. I mean, he's number seven just because I like a couple guys more than him. I have no problem with AJ Green. If you want him to be your number four guy, I'm not going to argue against it. And I think it's just it's the perception of him where, yeah, he's had some top years, but now he has three years where that are not elite.

Right. I mean, I'm throwing his rookie year. You're not talking consecutive. Right. Well, I'm saying his rookie year, which maybe you can go ahead and throw it his rookie year out. But two of the last three years, if you had A.J. Green, you ended up disappointed, not with what he was giving you when he was on the field, but because of his injuries. And he missed three games. He missed three games in 2014, and then last year he missed six games for context. And it was the timing. The timing of his injury was just.

It was brutal to absorb for fantasy players. That's what I love, man. That's what I love about AJ Green. The timing has wrecked his...

perception. And those are the type of things that I try to take the, you know, the emotions out of. If you owned A.J. Green last year, you were hot fire. You thought you were on the way to the championship. And you got wrecked by losing him from your roster. And you're not drafting him again this year. And there's a lot of guys out there that are kind of down on him. That's going to help allow him to fall, I think, behind a couple of the guys that we're going to talk about. You know, he's going to go behind Mike Evans. Yeah, Evans. Maybe Jordy Nelson does Bryant. Maybe Michael Thomas.

These are all guys that could easily go ahead of A.J. Green, and that's why I love him at this position. I feel like in some small subconscious way, we're giving him the respect he deserves here at number four. I don't think A.J. Green is any more injury worry. In fact, I would say he's less of an injury worry than Julio Jones. That's fair. And for context for how well A.J. Green was performing for fantasy purposes, weeks 1 through 10 when he was actually playing.

There was only four wide receivers averaging over 17 points per game in a half point format. Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Hulu Jones, and AJ Green. I mean, he was... Hashtag good. Yes, he was excellent. He was winning for your fantasy team. He just happened to get hurt. And if you can get over those fantasy burns, I mean, where's he going right now at the... Just rub some solve on. Some menthol.

Just rub it on there. Alvara. I love Michael Keaton. Yeah, right now he's going at the back of the first. Obviously, average draft position. Mike Evans going ahead of him, but he's the fifth wide receiver off the board. It's the only show where you can get simultaneous Alvara recommendations. Number five. Oh, my goodness. Jordy Nelson. Jordy Nelson, since 2011, when he's played, 33.

finished 12th, third, and then had the season he missed and came out last year and dominated. Is that number one? Is that what I see? That's number one in the hood, gee. Well, 14 touchdowns. That'll do it. Led the league in touchdowns, 1,257 yards, 97 receptions. And I would argue he started the season a little bit slow. It was not just slow. Well, he was scoring. Yes. But he wasn't.

The same Jordy. No, you kind of looked at him and you said, well, you know, the reception totals, maybe he's not going to come back. Because, see, the thing is, is you can make those conclusions on guys that are 32 years old. And you see some trends earlier in the year, and you're like, okay, maybe he's going to score for them, but maybe he's not going to be as critical. You know, you saw Devante Adams have a good year. And, you know, Randolph struggled through some injuries and inconsistencies. So maybe Jordy's just not what he was. And he is. He is what he is. He's great. And weeks one through seven.

And that when he was still coming back from the ACL, he was averaging 53 yards a game. Weeks 8 through 17, 93 yards a game. Lorde Nelson returned to form. If you're asking, why is AJ Green a little bit lower? It's because I have Jordy Nelson ahead of him. I consider Jordy, even at his advanced age for an NFL player, I think Jordy's safer than AJ Green. Yeah, I did a... Sorry, I was just going to say...

It's the Aaron Rogers, Andy Dalton. Exactly. That factors into it as well. Big time. I mean, Aaron Rogers, look, I've been doing a lot of research on wide receiver touchdowns over the last decade, how they come, who they go to, what happens after an up year, what happens after, all sorts of different things, age adjusted, and there are some real big pros for Jordy and a few cons for Jordy. On the pro side, look, since 2011, Jordy Nelson has the second most receiving touchdowns in the league.

He didn't play in 2015. He didn't play that season, and he is the second most receiving touchdown since 2011. The reason is another pro, and it's Aaron Rogers, because if you look back at touchdown leaders year after year after year after year, you got James Joneses and Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson's. Greg Jennings's? Greg Jennings. You have...

All of Aaron Rogers' touchdown options. I mean, Devante Adams last year. And so those are pluses. On the minus side, I looked back over the last decade, and there's been 85 times that a wide receiver has had double-digit touchdowns, 85 different seasons of a wide receiver doing that. And 70% of the time, the following season,

regresses by at least four touchdowns and oftentimes you're talking six seven eight ten touchdowns less and and those are still good names so you you know i went today and i actually adjusted him down one more touchdown in my stats and usually when you give a full touchdown adjustment they drastically move a player but for me he stayed exactly where he was um i think he's

as good a bet for 10 touchdowns this next season. He's Aaron Rogers number one guy. And there's plenty of examples of wide receivers from age 31 going to 32 that replicate that season. There are plenty as well that don't. But he's the type on the team that I think is in a situation to replicate. Meanwhile, the ADP disrespect for Jordy Nelson.

Love it. Always continues. I mean, you have AJ Green going at the back of the first. You have Jordy Nelson who is in the second round. I mean, that's just, that's insane to me. Number six on our wide receiver early rankings, Mike Evans, a name you might have expected to hear a little earlier. The haters are coming out now. Are you talking about me? No, I'm just to tell you that.

People, and I love Mike Evans, people. Oh, my love for Mike Evans is well documented, but this is where I have him in this range. I don't have him in my top four. None of us do. And I think the thing to understand with Mike Evans that I want to get into, perfect transition off of Jordy Nelson, okay? Mike Evans does not have Aaron Rogers thrown the ball. We all believe in the upside of James Winston. We love adding to Sean Jackson to that mix. But look, Jordy Nelson.

Even with Aaron Rogers, he had a monster, monster touchdown year back in 2011. I remember this. He finished number three in the league. Points per game, he was number two in 2011. He went to 2012, didn't score those touchdowns in the same way, and went down to number 31 in points per game. And this is a player that none of us would disagree is a great player. Jordy Nelson.

I'm looking at the possibility of outcomes, and thus far in Mike Evans' career, he has not strung together back-to-back years in which he has been this number, like this year, he was number two, okay? He had a monster a year. He was 173 targets, 1321 yards, 12 touchdowns, 96 catches. He was amazing. He was everything we always hoped he was. He scored 12 touchdowns his rookie year. Then he scored 3. Now he scored 12 again. And I'm not saying he cannot do it.

But the possibility of outcomes for Mike Evans puts him squarely in this 6-7-8 range to me as opposed to people that want to just, okay, here's the crown, you're now one of the elite. You're with Julio and Beckham and you're with Brown, and you guys all go out to dinner together. I'm not, no, you're staying back and you're going to eat with the rest of us. Yeah, I have him in that second tier of guys. He hasn't made the ascension yet to me. He's not in with those big three guys. Mike Evans.

benefited greatly for the first half of the year from some incredible game script for a wide receiver. The Tampa Bay defense was bad. In the first eight games, Mike Evans was averaging 22 ppr points a game, almost seven receptions, a full touchdown, and 93 yards. I mean, almost 100 yards. You saw a, you can almost just...

From box score and just stats, if you don't even recall what happened last year, there is an immediate shift of the way that Tampa Bay played. Oh, their defense was amazing. They came to life. The second half of the season, last eight games, they were six and two. During that time, Mike Evans' production dropped to 15 PPR points a game just under nine targets, 72 yards. Great, great, great numbers. Great numbers. But not top three.

numbers, if that's what he's going to sustain for the season. So with Evans, I guess you just... It's like a 32% drop. Right. So, I mean, there's some questions to ask if you're going to risk or if you're going to invest highly in Mike Evans. It's what do you feel like the impact of Deshaun Jackson is on him, which I think it's positive, but we know that Deshaun Jackson is going to siphon some touchdowns away. Jackson's likely to get at least four deep bombs. Yeah, those breakaway touchdowns and take the drive away.

Yeah, exactly. Take the drive away from him. Meanwhile, you had a JJ, Zacharisen, great friend of the show, broke down an excellent article on him on Numberfire, talked about the yards after catch was not there for Mike Evans last year. Can that return? Or it's just there's a lot of factors when you're going to invest an early first round pick into a guy like Mike Evans. When the other guys are on the board? You brought up the splits. Does it remind you a little bit of how.