AFC South Breakdown + Hype Check, Dingleberries - Fantasy Football Podcast

those difficult matchups and say, I made the right choice. I mean, Will Fuller is, I believe he's on the fifth year option. They chose to pay him. We know that he has the existing rapport with Deshaun Watson, and yet more discussion in the fantasy community comes out around Brandon Cooks. They're being drafted around the same spot. Do you think Will Fuller is being ignored for fantasy purposes? I don't know that he's being...

flat ignored everyone sees his upside right but everyone also sees him get injured left right and center it's a matter of can he stay healthy and are you willing to take that risk in the seventh round the back of the seventh round looks like where he's going right now wide receiver 35 I look I've got both of these guys in my 40s in wide receiver rankings but that doesn't tell the whole story I think that when you are drafting in the seventh or eighth round those are the type of guys that if you've built

Your roster was solid wide receivers already. You've got volume and you're looking for high upside. Both Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks represent that. Because if one of them ends up inheriting a large target share that DeAndre Hopkins left, then they're going to help you win games, win leagues. Last year, Darren fells at Tight-in, who we've not talked about a lot, had seven touchdowns.

He was the tight end eight through the first eight weeks. We talk about the 44% of the team targets vacated, which is the highest in the NFL with Hopkins leaving. Is Darren fells a late round target for anybody? No. He's just the, he'll be on your waiver wire. And when you have to stream and hope that a guy gets a touchdown, then he's in that group. I'm not counting on him to be anything of a weekly.

started for me. All right. Is there another discussion or debate on this team? I mean, David Johnson is the running back core. We've talked about him a lot. He's going in the fourth round right now, the first pick of the fourth round. Two consecutive years without being able to get over to that 3.7 yard per carry mark phased completely out of the Cardinal offense last year, but arrives with nobody else really behind him. It's the David Johnson Duke Johnson experience in Houston.

I can't wait to see how many people draft the wrong one in their different platform. Yeah, that's a good piece of fantasy advice. When you're drafting Dee Johnson running back for the Texans, be careful and make sure you're grabbing the right one. Give the triple check. More people drafted Matt Barclay instead of Saquan Barclay. So if you've got the same initials, you're in trouble. Yeah, same initials, same team, same position. Watch out.

But you look at Carlos Hyde last year. Carlos Hyde had 245 carries, 1,070 yards, and six rushing touchdowns. You know, I think it's possible David Johnson is worse as a runner than Carlos Hyde right now because you just haven't seen him even hit four yards of carry in consecutive years. But while that's possible, you know, David Johnson has had far more juice.

He's a hard worker. And he's going to get the rock. I mean, he's guaranteed for 250 carries here. So the volume is there. And if he gets 265 carries and only rushes for 3.9 a carry, he's a thousand yard rusher. And we know that when there is a large vacated targets, it goes to the running back. And I think David Johnson excels there. You've seen Aaron Foster in the past with Bill O'Brien be used as a workhorse in both.

the rushing and receiving game. So I like David Johnson this season. Is that same logic apply to Duke? I mean, if it's vacated targets and Duke has traditionally been their third down guy, I know that David is a great pass catcher, but Duke's getting on the field, is he not? Yeah, Duke will get on the field. I mean, he was on the field last year with Carlos Hyde getting those. But the difference being that Carlos Hyde does not have that skill set. So I think there will be...

It'll be much worse for Duke Johnson this year than last year because they'll want to keep David Johnson on the field. That's my belief. All right. Let's talk about the Tennessee Titans. They finished 9 and 7 last year. Third in rushing yards per game, the Derek Henry experience was a mighty fine one for fantasy football owners. 21 rushing touchdowns. An improving defense made the playoff run. I think they have a great defense heading into the new year.

They lost, well, Delaney Walker retired. Marcus Marietta, he's gone. Ryan Tannahill paid. And then they lose Jack Conklin on the offensive line. But when you look at this team, I think we probably all have them as the divisional favorites. Yes. Yeah, I think that's fair. But at the same time, we do not have expectations for the kind of efficiency numbers that Ryan Tannahill put up last year. Yeah, this.

The Titans are very tough. Derek Henry is very tough. I'm not betting against him, but it's concerning to spend that high of a draft pick on, he's a two-down guy. I mean, it's been said over and over, but the truth of the matter is, that's what Derek Henry is. He's not going to get the passing numbers that some of these other running backs are going to get. And when, like, you, when you're drafting your quarterback, you want to make sure they have a rushing.

baseline most of the time because it just makes things so much easier for fantasy. They're that much safer. And Derek Henry doesn't carry the safety net of a pass catching running back. And you look at the numbers of what can happen. When Tanhill wasn't on the field, he was rushing for under 70 yards a game. Still putting up very respectable rushing numbers, but he didn't transform into the fantasy monster that he was.

until they made the switch to Tannenhill, and Tanyhill was playing just absolute B. Nana's football going crazy with deep completions to A.J. Brown every single game, really opening things up. So that's just, I'm not betting against Henry, but I'm very hesitant every time I go to draft him as my first running back. You're as my first pick.

Yeah, it'll be interesting. I think he'll sign a contract, by the way, before the season begins. I'm predicting that they extend him in the next couple of weeks. Jason, what were you going to say? I was just going to, you know, I totally understand the arguments here, Mike. It's what we've said for years. You want a guy who can't get game scripted out. Statistically speaking, you need a pass catching running back if they're going to end up in the top six. I mean, it just...

very rarely ever happens without someone having a baseline of receptions, and Derek Henry doesn't have it, and I am 100% betting on Derek Henry. I'm not just not betting against him. I believe Derek Henry is an outlier. There are human beings that are just different, and all the statistical analysis does not always apply to every single human, you know, and I will say this.

It's better when they win than when they lose. That makes sense for just about all first and second down running backs. Obviously, part of that's going to be he already scored touchdowns to get the lead. And part of that's going to be he, he's up at 25, 26 carries. But if you look at, you know, there was a stretch last year from week two through five where they lost.

three of four games. That was with Marcus Mariotta. They're losing games playing poorly. He was on a 316 carry pace in those losses. He's going to get the rock. So he's one of those guys where I don't, he's, when I say one of those guys, he's the only guy that I don't care about the receptions. Like I'm, I'm much more hesitant on Nick Chubb, even though the upside's there. I'm not flat betting on him the way I would bet on Henry.

I don't have a lot of concern either with the offensive line turnover with them investing the draft pick, losing Conklin. You know, when he ran to the left, which is away from Conklin's side, Henry was 6.5 a carry, the Taylor-Lawain run to the left side. But Tannahill is, here's an interesting split, because the home road splits for Ryan Tannahill are worth mentioning. He was plus 9.97 fantasy points at home. So 28.12 at home, 18.

1-5 on the road. And we've brought this up with certain players before Drew Brees, Big Ben, come to mind. Is that something that fantasy owners should be aware of because of where they're drafting Ryan Tannenhill? I mean, right now he's a 12th round draft pick. The quarterback 18. So if you're playing the streaming game, are you avoiding him on the road? No. Ryan Tanyhill is still a really good late round target. We don't expect him to be able to continue what he did.

Well, no, that wasn't my question of whether he's a good target. It was whether you use that data to stream him differently because you're probably in the streaming category at 12th round, aren't you? You are in the category of if it doesn't work out, the investment was very low so you can bail on him. Gotcha. If you're drafting, like if you're drafting Tanyhill, guess where his first game is.

On the road. So if you're drafting him, you're playing him. You're not going to be worried about the home road splits, at least right away. To speak specifically to that, I'm not worried at all. He only had four road games after he became the starter. And in some of those games, those were three touchdown Derek Henry games. Okay, well, he smashed him. It wasn't like he played poorly. So I don't worry about that small sample. All right. The other big fantasy names worth mentioning, A.J. Brown, obviously.

Right now being drafted as the wide receiver 17, absolutely dominant last season over the back half, and then Jono Smith. Do you think the AJ Brown is, well, all the upside exists, while the ceiling is top five, top three, do you worry about the up and down type of performances you might get in this offense due to the Derek Henry focus? I don't worry about it considering the draft price.

I'm shocked and I'm very proud of the fantasy community that we've all gotten together and not overinflated the draft price. So wide receiver 17, like, yeah, you're going to have some ups and downs. But at that point of the draft, you're not, you don't think you're getting a guy who's putting up top 12 numbers every single week. At least you shouldn't. Yeah.

Yeah, and then Johnny Smith, Jason has him up at tight-in seven. I have him the lowest at Titan 19, Mike right in the middle, tight-in 13. He's tough, man. He's tough, yeah, he is. He's got so much potential in athleticism. And so those type of tight-ins are always extremely tempting, Trey Burton. And sometimes it works out. I mean, sometimes you do see those players emerge and break out, and Jonah Smith has had his fair share of monster plays. I mean, he's a great runner with the ball in his hands.

I guess I'm not making the bet on Jonu this year the way Jason is. Yeah, you know, every now and then, every year, you have to see the tight-in breakout who has the physical ability and the opportunity on the field to really take that step forward. And that's where John, you know, he's still very young. He's crazy athletic. I mean, to put him in the John who's, or in the Trey Burton field is unfair.

to John O'Smith. And, you know, I think the fact that he's coming into this season as the guy, he's not behind Delaney Walker, where he spent his entire career so far, they're going to involve him, and I could see him being the second target in this offense at worst third. So, yeah, I love taking a shot. Is that because you don't want to utter Corey Davis's name alone? I was just going to bring him up. Yes, that is because I don't want to utter.

Corey Davis's name. It's crazy. In our Scott Fish Bowl draft, we're doing there, we're, I mean, where, where Cory Davis goes is in no man's land. Nobody wants to touch Corey Davis.

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