The Overreaction Episode + AB News, Free Agency Updates

The predominant argument, the main storyline for his decline has revolved around what? A transition in philosophy on the offensive side of the football. Okay? So that's the main argument. Do you guys agree with that? 100% I think that's the main argument. They changed the office of coordinator. Now they're going to run more. Pass less. Yeah, and that was evident that did take place. I mean, when you look at the back half of the season, last three games of the year,

passing on 52% of plays. Over the course of the whole year, there were 64% of the time passing team. But here's the overreaction. Here's the pendulum swing that I'm afraid of people making. And by the way, Adam Thielen in negotiations right now for a contract extension. His four-year, $19 million deal is one of the best bargains in all of football. And last season, 113 for 1373 and 9. One of the best route runners in football. Here's the deal.

We're one offseason removed from $84 million guaranteed into the hands of Kirk Cousins. I think what the coach wants to do and hopes to do doesn't necessarily match reality in today's NFL. And we can push the pendulum too far and believe this team's going to run, run, run, run. Well, guess what? This defense wasn't what they thought they had last year. Every single defender on their team outside of Sheldon Richardson graded out lower.

than the season before. This defense has question marks and problems. You can want to do that, but when Aaron Rogers and Green Bay have a two touchdown, three touchdown lead, and you've got two of the best route running receivers in football, you're going to use them with a guy that's paid $84 million. So I think the truth of Adam Thielen is much...

From a statistical standpoint is much more of the first half than the second half of the year. I don't think we expect that, I don't think you see the last eight games repeated over the course of all next season. I don't think you see the first eight games. But I think the overreaction has been staunch. It's been big. People were burned by him. People have scars from the playoff run. When Adam Thielen, I mean, if you get eight games like you got to start the year from Adam Thielen, he's number one. He's auto locked in your lineup, though, for the second half of the year. You'd never take them out.

And then when he lets you down, it hurts. Yeah. You read the number of his final yardage count, 1,373 yards, which that's a fantastic season. The hard part is that second half, which, so weeks nine, or games nine through 16, 448 total receiving yards. I get it. And to me, it's more a question of, that's not a philosophy change. I mean, you, you.

You can't turn in that first half and then the second half. Like what happened? And that's my point. I don't have an answer for that. Part of the answer, the real answer isn't just the running game. The real answer is the offensive line. The real answer is no time for Kirk Cousins. And these guys are getting double and triple team because you don't need to send extra passers, pass rushers on that offense. They released two of their guards today.

They're reformulating that offensive line. If they can fix the offensive line, you're going to fix Adam Thielen's issues. It doesn't just come down to philosophy. It comes down to the fact that their head coach was frustrated because you couldn't put them back to pass because their offensive line struggle. The stat you just brought up of the 400 and yada yada yards over the second half, that is perfect ammunition for those people who want to overreact. I'm 100% on board with Andy.

Adam Thielen is just a dominant wide receiver in his prime. So I'm just going to, I'm going to trust that he's great because he's been great and will continue to be great. There's, yeah, I'm, I'm on board completely not going to overreact. In fact, I will scoop up whatever dip in his average draft position. You've been always scoop the dip. I mean, that's your, buy the dip. Hoddle. I'll eat. Nom, nom, nom.

All right, my next overreaction candidate is last year's overreaction candidate. Last year on this show, I told people not to overreact from Carson Winces. Breaking news. It's every time Jason talks. When Jason speaks, something happens to Sean Jackson to the Eagles. Yeah. Oh, it's happening. Well, speaking of Carson Woods. That took all of five seconds for him to be released.

And ahead to the Eagles, sorry. Implications, one-sentence implications. We'll talk more on Thursday. Deshawn Jackson to the Eagles means, bye-bye, Aguilar, hello, Carson wins. Nice. I won't disagree with that. I think Aguilar sticks around, by the way. He might, but he'll be, Deshaun Jackson will be what they wanted Mike Wallace to be. My dynasty team's so happy. See, it feels so good, man. I was just saying at lunch today.

Just at lunch today, I was like, dude, I need to, like, we're always tapped out on the amount of leagues we're in. We try to stay in a small, and I'm like, I need to find another dynasty league. You just want to start up. I want to start up. All right. Go on. You're talking Carson Wins, huh? Carson Wins. Last year, it was the, oh, yeah, he's right here. Carson Wins is with us on set. That's a, that's a little doll. Well, that's not actually, it's a miniature. But he's with me in spirit. Okay. So last year.

urge people not to overreact on his incredible sophomore year where he threw over 7% of his passes as touchdowns and, you know, and he had a down year this year. And I'm telling people, do not overreact. He had a down year in the worst possible way to have a down year. If you have a down year and it's because you slumped in the middle of the season, you're going to be fine.

People aren't going to overreact. They're going to remember the beginning. They're going to remember the end. That's what people remember. But if you remember the beginning of the season and you remember the end of the season, you don't remember Carson Wince. You remember Nick Foles. He didn't start the year. He didn't finish the year. He's got the back problems. He was down. I mean, if you look at final season rankings, all Carson Wins was terrible. But in reality, Carson Wince was pretty darn good. I mean, right now in the best ball ADPs that I checked, he's going as the quarterback 13.

or 15, depending on the platform you're in, and I'm all about that life, he was still a 5.2% touchdown rate this last year on a, you know, that's great. That's a, that's a, and 5.2 is manageable. 5.2, exactly. 5.2 is a great number that maybe is his number. Right. When he threw, you know, 7.4% or something, we all knew it can't stick around there, but he is a good touchdown throw. He's an efficient, you know,

Tony Romo, Aaron Rogers type of guy that when he gets around the red zone, he throws touchdowns. Look, we need to remember two years ago what I was telling people to not overreact from. He was the quarterback three in points per game, and that was his sophomore year. He dealt with some stuff. Now getting Deshawn Jackson, making sure that Peters has re-signed for the left tackle, he's coming back this year. I think people are going to overreact from Carson Winst's injuries.

and the feeling, the overall feeling that he, you know, he's nothing special. All the... The biggest problem with Carson wins, if you want me to... And I'm, you're echoing all of my thoughts in Carson wins. I love him. But the biggest issue, he's on the ground. Right, is running. Because all of your statistics that you brought up about him actually being pretty darn good. I mean, great touchdown to interception ratio. All those things. The completion percentage was outstanding. It's just he picked up so many yards on the ground.

That was the extra element that made him an elite top three guy. And that is one of those reasons last year when we're saying to not overreact is, I mean, this past year, he was coming off of an ACL. You're not going to run that following year as much as you will now. So I think he keeps running on the ground. That's the best place to run. And is a dominant quarterback this next year. I think he's a top six fantasy option.

All right, guys, what do you think? Deshaun Jackson over under six and a half touchdowns in Philadelphia this year. What do you think? Six and a half is a pretty good line. I'll take the under. I'm going to go over. 52-48 is the current poll results on my Twitter. 250 folk clan members voted moments ago. 52% say under 48% say over. That must be right about where people are expecting him to land. All right, Mike, who's your next overreaction candidate?

He was a bit of an overreaction candidate last year because the hype train. We're talking about Brooks. Yeah, I get it. I get it. Oh, yeah, Brooks. Brooks is always getting the hype. No, it's interesting. I went from Devont to Freeman who saw his best years under Kyle Shanahan to a running back who's currently playing for Kyle Shanahan. Want to remind people about, yep, we're talking. Jerich.

McKinnon, it's happening. I need to hear this. I don't know what to think, man. I really don't. Right. The hype train was like you said. It was crazy. I don't know what to think. I need someone to clarify the truth. I love McKinnon. He's such a buy candidate for me right now. Yes. I am thoroughly in love with McKinnell. Can we be wrong, though? Could you be wrong? Well, here's the deal. So last year, Maparita was the running back 25 to end the season. If you look at the numbers, like games played.

I thought he was actually better than that. It's because he technically appeared in 14 games. He really only played 10 of those games where he would knock out, you're talking 10% of the snaps because he got knocked out frequently. That was what Matt Buretick kind of did. And in those games where he was playing, he would get 13 attempts and 3 targets.

a game. And he turned that into the running back 25 in 10 games. Look at the yards per attempt for the entire backfield for San Francisco running under the Shanahan system. Barida, 5.3 a carry. My name is Jeff Wilson. 4.0. Rahim Mostert. Colonel Muster with a 7.7. Even the carcass of Alfred Morris was able to manage 3.9. I mean, that's a win to me.

Honestly. When your carcass can average 3.9, look. Some carcasses get signed to $2 million deals with Buffalo. But go on. Sure. And it's, is Jerich McKinnon still the guy? Because, I mean, he got paid a crazy amount of money last year. Kyle Shanahan was just talking to a member of SB Nation. On February 28th, they said, is McKinnon the league guy? Kyle Shanahan, quote, yeah, that's why we brought him here.

So he is, Kyle Shane-Han still has the support for Jerich McKinnon. Right now, if you're playing basketball in draft, he's going at pick 45.

I mean, these are great values to me, Devonta Freeman and Jerich McKinnon. I firmly believe that McKinnon takes over that lead role over Berita, over whoever it happens to be left on the roster. Breaking news, Levi-on-Beljo signed with San Francisco. That would put a little bit of a damper on it, but those rumors are absolutely insane. It sounds like agent leak type of rumors where it's like, hey, say the San Francisco has interest because we need the Jets to pay more.

This is when he finds out that the only people bidding on Lev Bell are the Jets. And they're trying to start that war. Here's what I want to know. What's the difference in how you feel about Jared McKinnon today versus a year ago? The same. Yeah, I don't feel any different. You don't. The question. Coming off an ACL, of course, you have to have to have a little bit of caution, yes. And we've seen Matt Barita and Mostert, who is, who is, uh, ex, uh,

Tendered. Tendered, yes. So the only variables to me are the injury and then seeing a little bit more of those other guys in their success. Now, you're kind of making the argument that the success of Mabrita works in advantage for Jack McKinnon's production. That's how I've seen it too. The ACL is a step down, but what those backups were able to do says, you know, look, I think McKinnon is a better back than those other guys. So if he's in there and those other guys were dominating,

He's going to be a great fantasy. So you're targeting, you guys, the overreaction would be that you're the concern. Yes, I, yeah, the concern for McKin. Like I said, pick 45, you're almost the back of the fourth round, a guy who has, in my opinion, easy top 12 upside at the position. All right. Well, listen, I want to talk to the listeners for just a minute because we've got, we're wrapping up today's episode. But there's a lot more common. And I mean signings in NFL free agency.

We've got a show on Thursday. We're going to be covering everything that we didn't get to talk about on today's show. We also have a second show on Thursdays, in case you didn't know that. But it's called the Footcast, and it is for exclusive Foot Clan supporters. Those of you supporting our independent podcast that join thefoot.com, you get access to an exclusive extra episode. You can ask questions about any of these free agents, your team, your dynasty team. You can gloat about Danny Mandola on the Footcast if you want to.