The Overreaction Episode + AB News, Free Agency Updates

That's kind of where I'm at with him. I think it's an overreaction to just assume that he's going to be able to move outside and do that. He's going to face completely different coverages. We've never seen him face before. And I'm not a big fan of the argument that is like, I think you started the show by saying it where you're like, well, he's never been a one before. I don't really like taking the perspective of like he's never done X so he can't do X. But at the end of the day, you're going to have variables that are in the equation. I think it's too hard to just say, hey,

Let's throw him outside. Now he's got double coverage. Now he's running different routes. He's a guaranteed 1,500 yards. I don't think he repeats what he did last year, fantasy-wise. That's my point. Yeah, I've seen a lot of takes that are similar to yours in the sense that they're saying, hey, you know, hold your horses here. You can't just say, okay, well, he becomes Antonio Brown. And I agree with that extreme, right? That would...

That would essentially be saying, well, Juju is the number one wide receiver out of the board. He's going to be the new Antonio Brown. They're very different players, different stylistically, different, you know, across the board. But Juju is, to me, one of the most dominant wide receivers in the league who is at an age where he is only getting better. And now the opportunities for targets and volume and all of that, you know, goes way up. I mean, you're losing 168 targets.

and 15 touchdowns from Antonio Brown. Juju is a great red zone option, and he only had seven touchdowns. So if you're telling me, okay, maybe he doesn't repeat 1,400 yards. Maybe he gets 1,290. Right. But he has...

12 or 13 touchdowns, he's going to be around that top five. So I haven't statted, you know, we had 166 targets. So when you say his targets and all these things are going to go way up, that part of, if you had just made it about the red zone, I can get on board with you. But when you say they're going to go way up, what are we talking about? Antonio Brown's 16-game pace targets over the last six years on average are 180 targets. So, I mean, maybe I'm not saying, you know, he's going to.

add on an extra hundred targets, but they're not going down and he's going to be utilized more in the red zone. There was this weird home road split. I just think, I mean, look, you are, I need to be listening to you, right? Like, if, if you're correct, you are, I've been saying for years. You are, you know, I'm going to drive juju as an absolute one this year. So I'm the, I'm the audience you're speaking to right now.

Look, he can be a one. I think when you look at what he did last year, you're talking about close to a ceiling for him. I mean, the big number that can change is the touchdown total. I don't disagree with that. It would be a big difference if he added four on there. If he came down on yards and went up on that, then you're back at the 8-9 range. That's fine. I'm seeing him. People want to put him in the top three, top five. That's where the overreaction to me is. All I hear are numbers that speak positively for Fance McDonald's.

Well, speaking of Pittsburgh Steelers, former Pittsburgh Steeler Antonio Brown is my watch your overreactions on. You guys remember when Nick Foles decided to pay back that $2 million? 20. Yeah. He paid $2 million. He paid it to turn down the 20 minute. Remember when he did that? How do you not hit the button for this? Yeah. Breaking news. Nick Foles is officially.

Signing with the Jags four years, $88 million. $88 miles an hour. That's why. Do we know how much is guaranteed? Probably at least 60 or something close. That's... I do not know that as of this moment. I don't blame them. But I know that any way you cut up $88 million is a pretty good situation. I do not blame them. Oh, guaranteed money is $50 million. All right. Okay. I would have gone in on...

I think he made a mistake. I don't blame him, but it just, it seemed like there was no one else that Nick Foles could go to. And he'll, they're going to release Blake Bortles. No! Very soon. My dynasty team cries. All right. So my overreaction candidate number one is Antonio Brown. People overreacting on the negative. Okay, he goes from being the best wide receiver in the game to.

Derek Carr. Derek Carr has been really bad for fantasy. I mean, I know some of his numbers look like they got better, but that's because he was checked down Charlie this last year. You know, everything basically at the line of scrimmage. But if you think about it, two years ago, Derek Carr was an MVP candidate who had 145 targets for Michael Crabtree and 132 for Amari Cooper in the same season. And both those guys had good fantasy years.

You had, you know, I think 15 touchdowns between them. So now, yeah, I know Carr was really, really bad last year. I will agree with everybody that's like, oh, man, Derek Carr is no Big Ben. He's not. Agreed. He is not as good as Big Ben for sure. But last year, you can't just look. I mean, he was throwing the ball to a 33-year-old Jordy Nelson.

Seth Roberts and Marcel Aitman. I mean, it was just a trash heap. His best receiver last year was Jared Cook. I mean, in the offseason last year, when I had Jared Cook, I think in the top 12 tight ends, I was mocked. Yes. Because he's Jared Cook. But, I mean, Jared Cook had 900 yards, six touchdowns, and he's Jared Cook. So now you've got Antonio Brown. The biggest thing Jared Cook has working against him is that he's,

Jared Cook. Exactly. Now you see the point. Antonio Brown is not the same as Amari Cooper. They aren't just both good, promising wide receivers. Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in the game right now. He is arguably the second best wide receiver of all time. And he's going to a team where I think he's going to have Derek Carr under his.

little finger, and he's going to get the 160 targets, and Derkar's going to be Antonio Brown's puppet, and he's going to say, just throw me the ball. And when he does, he's going to go, oh, this guy catches it a lot more than Amari Cooper did. Can Antonio Brown overcome Greg Olson? Oh, that's going to be tough. But if there's one thing I'm pretty sure of, is that Antonio Brown, how they say, runs the show.

He has just orchestrated everything he wanted, got everything he wanted, and he's not going to go to Oakland and then not get everything else he wants. So, look, he's going to be down, right? But I've seen his average draft position on money leagues on best ball games going right now is the 25th pick. That's the third round. He's going basically. I would take him there gladly. Yes, I would as well. I statted out their car. Is that the Buffalo bump, though?

Like what people got scared that he was going to Buffalo? Maybe. I think he is the wide receiver 10 on ADP right now. And look, I've got him static for 165 targets, 107 receptions, 1,287 yards, and nine touchdowns. I believe that's very doable next year for him. That would have put him ninth last year. But last year was an up year for wide receivers. It would have put him third two years ago. So I still see him.

Locked and loaded as a wide receiver one. This is a great landing spot for Antonio Brown. I think the very few places that would have been better for Antonio Brown to go. I don't think that a lot of people, their first impression of the landing spot is that it's a great landing spot. You know, if he had landed in San Francisco. Right. I think people could have, you know, up and coming quarterback, Kyle Shanahan. I think it's not Buffalo, right? The reaction that you got from Buffalo, but it's close.

Right? It's kind of the inherent reaction you have on a team of struggle for a while. Yeah. And I think you're right. This is not a player moving on to Oakland in the back quarter of his career. This is a player that just led the league in touchdowns. The problem will be can Derek Carr drive the ball downfield. Even when they were winning, that was a bit of an issue. So if Derek Carr can't drive it downfield, it doesn't matter. But I'm with you. A lot of people, look, some of the reactions I got on that tweet right now.

Antonio Brown out of the top 10. Antonio Brown out of the top 10 with exclamation points. So I'm not sure that I think you'd cut those exclamation points off and maybe throw a question mark at the end. Yep. Sure. The player I want to bring up for my first overreaction is Devonta Freeman. I think that people are writing him off too early. I completely understand that he has been a disappointment in the past two years, battling with injuries.

He's been also battling my top problem with Freeman the last couple years. Targets. The targets were not coming to one of the best past catching running backs in the league. Like when he was under Kyle Shanahan, when Kay Shah was running the show in Atlanta, Devonta Freeman was feasting on targets, was the overall number one running back a year. And then Sarkeesian comes in and everything.

Seems like it's absolutely terrible. And it wasn't just your imagination. In 2017, under Sark, they average around 18% of their target and went to the running back position. And that's not a death sentence. That's certainly not where you want them. And then next year, 2018, around 14%. What are you doing, Steve Sarkisian? I understand that Freeman wasn't playing, but you had Kevin Coleman, very capable pass catcher. Edo Smith is fine. But it's...

What were you doing with the offense? Sark is out. We don't have to live under his tyranny anymore. Dirt Cutter is back. And we already have a sample. We know what Dirt Cutter does in Atlanta. And that was the running backs averaged in Dirt Cutters three years. They averaged 22% of the targets. This is exactly what we need to get Devante Freemian back into the top, back being a stud. It's rare to have predictability.

when you have a new OC? A new OC. So I like that. Yes. As fantasy owners, we're going to grab on. And by the way, so one of the years, it was 2012 when they were still getting a high amount of targets. That was also the year that Michael Turner saw 222 attempts. So this isn't that Devonta Freeman now we're cutting him down to 140 attempts, but he's going to get targets. That's my question to you is.

wear and tear has done something to Devon to free? Sure. So does the team, you know, with the talk of Edo Smith, do they draft somebody? And does that, would that change your opinion if they spend a day two pick on somebody for that backfield? I would be shocked if they spent a day two pick on a running back. It certainly would have to affect the way I think about things, but we always talk about new information, changes the way you see things. But right now,

People on draft. They're playing basketball. Devante Freeman is going right around pick 31. That's behind Aaron Jones. That's behind Kerry on Johnson. And sure, we can have a debate. Like, will those guys finish ahead of Freeman? But it's absolutely outrageous to me that a guy who's just a couple years removed from being an absolute dominant force in fantasy football is being drafted there. Like, he's being written off.

You probably know this off the top of your head, but just in case you don't. You know how old Devante Freeman is? I think he's 27? He is 26. He is 26 years old. He will be 27 this season. Well, that'll come after 26. No, I'm saying. Because I know he is younger than Levi-on-Bel. And I remember that surprised me when I was looking that up because in Dynasty, Devon-Fremant, Freeman, like you're saying, Mike, is pretty much left for dead, and Levy on Bell is still... And I get it. And, like, I just...

For people, I just traded for Freeman. And the reason I was able to get Freeman was because of the past two years. Well, and that's your opportunity. Yes, exactly. And if you had the last two years and he was 30 years old, I mean, you could compare it to like LaShawn McCoy. You don't hear us talking a lot about him being a bargain or a steal. Right. Because there's a lot of tread on those tires. At least Devonta Freeman could be put in a position where maybe you've had some bad fortune. Kevin Coleman's cleared the way.

Even if he was in a timeshare role in an offense that was very good, that's enough. Yeah, and the Falcons will be, once again, be a very, very good offense, and you're hurt until you're not. Yes, I just asked Matt Forte. Yes. All right, this was one I struggle with. I spent a lot of time thinking about it. I'm sticking with it. I think people are overreacting, and I think Mike is one of those people. No, no, no, no. Let me hear your...

Let's hear your argument. Well, here's the deal. I think that Adam Thielen, okay? I think Adam Thielen, a lot of people are overreacting and they don't view him as a one, or they view him behind Stefan Diggs, and they do it based on the fact that the season ended so poorly for Adam Thielen. Last year when he came out, first half of the season, 78 receptions, 940 yards, and six touchdowns, the number one wide out in fantasy, and the contention.