Top 10 WR Rankings Episode - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/4

we think are great. They wouldn't be in the top 10 if they weren't. So it's like, we're not going to come on in the show and be like, number eight, C.D. Lamb, he's awesome. All right. Number seven, he's awesome, too. We're looking at some ways to differentiate and give you information to make an informed decision in your draft. And so I think C.D. Lamb's a great player. He's 24 years old. I think he's a pretty automatic pick. I think he's a pretty great. like consistent option for your team, but there are variables in play for C.D. Lamb that weren't there last year. And so we need to see what happens there. I'm not particularly, myself, I'm not particularly concerned about Brandon Cooks or Michael Gallup in the offense. You have so many abandoned targets that Dalton Schultz had in the offense last year. But those are good points. I mean, they are going to be a slower offense. They have a great defense. They were number one in turnovers force last year.

They can win a lot of ball games that way. And so, you know, is this a situation where you're going to see maybe less production in the second half of games if they have a lead that they've gotten in the first? We talked about it with Philly. Maybe that's what you see in this offense. Maybe they're not stretching the field as much in the second half and they're just on the ground. Something I don't know that I've really thought about because the offseason narrative has been very fun. that Mike McCarthy has provided with the soundbite of saying that they were essentially saying we're scoring too much, we need to run the ball more and let the defense rest, which it's fun to talk about that. Will they really be able to do that? Now, the offensive line is, it's not what it was. Like, it's still, I think it'll still be one of the stronger units in the league.

But looking at the running back room, right? Tony Pollard's the guy. Tony Pollard's about $2.15? Did he get up to $2.15? I'm pretty sure he's $2.15. So he's at about $2.15. We know that Ronald Jones is facing a two-game suspension if he even makes the team. And Ronald Jones is a smaller guy. Malik Davis is barely over 200 pounds. Deuce Vaughn is barely over 100 pounds, which is, I'm joking. But also kind of true. The size of these players that they have, that the Cowboys said that and then they're moving forward, like this is a smaller running back room. This is not the type. This is not the archetype of player like Zeke where like we can give him the ball on the ground 20 plus times a game and we know that he's not going to wear down. Like can they actually do that with anybody on this team? I don't know.

It surprises me, too, because you would expect another bruiser to be added to this backfield, and it hasn't happened. So something to watch with Dallas. And number seven, Devante Adams. Yeah. 30 years old, second round draft pick. Being drafted is the wide receiver eight. I have him at five. Jason at eight, Mike at eight. Last year, he was the wide receiver three. He led the NFL in percentage of first read targets, which is a new stat from fantasy points that I've. really enjoyed looking at. You know, he's been top three in fantasy for three of the past four years. Obviously, last year it was with Derek Carr and previously with Aaron Rogers. I don't know if I can make him a my guy because of where he's being drafted. Absolutely, you can. But I am strongly considering it. Oh, hey, look, we make the rules. I don't know if you're aware of this.

What are the official my guy rules? We make the rules for this show. It's in consideration. Okay. Because I think he's being, I think this is a crazy opportunity to go running back in the first round and maybe draft the best wide receiver in the second round. Like I'm not saying Adams is going to be number one, but he's got as good a chance as anybody to be in the top three in my opinion. Obviously Jefferson is there. But if, you know, if Adams outperform chase. Wouldn't be surprised. If Adam's outperformed Tyreek, wouldn't be surprised. So that possibility being drafted at wide receiver 8, I'm very bullish. You guys have him at 8 where he's being drafted. So you are with the rest of the earth on that one. I'm totally with you on. Which has to be just Jimmy G. That is where I was going to go. I'm in lockstep with you on the opinion of Devante Adams, the player. I don't think that he has lost anything. It was, you know, it.

It was a great season, but you did have certainly some games where you're like, what the heck is going on? Why can't Devante Adams catch a target here? But Jimmy Garapolo has, in his career, been a, I need yards after catch. Like this is how my wide receivers produce. This is what he did in San Francisco. It's, you know, quick where a pass is close to the line of scrimmage, let my wide receivers work. If that shift happens, can Devante Adams still get it done? Where last year, with Derek Carr, this was, like, this was a head, like big, big A-Dots, averaged depth of target for Devante Adams. His yards per catch were the highest of his career, I believe. Yeah, that's true. By a wide margin. Yes. And he was a touchdown machine as well. So that's, my concerns are all related to Jimmy Garapolo.

mixing in, is he going to mesh with what Devante Adams needs? Let me put this in your brain as one area where he may overcome an a dot issue and see if you agree. His career catch percentage is 66%. From the time he became an elite player with Aaron Rogers, his catch percentage was 68%. Last year, he had 180 targets in that offense, which look, you're not going to have as high a catch percentage when you're averaged up the target is deep. He caught 100 passes out of 180. That was like 56%. If he's getting the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and he's getting 180 targets, the PPR numbers are going to make up for some of that A dot. So I think that you're going to end up in three to five with him. I just don't fear Jimmy Garoppolo in contrast to Derek Carr that much. I would agree with you in general. He's not going from.

Greatness to Terribleness. You know, it's there, they're near each other. The one concern I have is touchdowns. It, you know, it's like 14 last year. Exactly. He had, he had, you know, 14 touchdowns. And I, I do think that that is different. When you get in the red zone, the red zone work, I would trust Eric Carr more than I would trust Jimmy Garoppolo. But double digit six of seven years. The player is fantastic. He is awesome, and he is loud. He will demand targets. He will have 160 targets. So if you've got talent and you've got opportunity, that's great for fantasy football. He's not costing what he usually costs, which is a first round pick. So I think there is value here, but I would be surprised if he finishes inside the top five, just because I don't expect him to keep the double digit touchdown streak going.

So Kyle just shared the stat with us that nine of the 14 touchdowns for Devante ads were 20 plus yards or more for a, like that's a, so many bonds. That's a monster score where can Jimmy Garoppolo do that? I know the NFL, the Raiders are betting on it at least. They're betting that Jimmy Garoppolo is a good starting quarterback. Is he? Like he was playing with Kyle Shanahan who basically every quarterback except for Trey Lance that we see start for Kyle Shanahan. They just, they're very adequate. Like the offense does it. As long as the quarterback doesn't screw up, the offense will take care of itself where I don't think that's, the offense isn't going to take care of it for him with the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have to carry. Can he do it? I don't know. Yeah, we're going to find out. I think I'm on the side of yes. Sure. And I understand doubting Jimmy G. No question. Number six, A.J. Brown. Eagles wide receiver.

The wide receiver six in ADP right now, top of the second round. We all of them ranked the same. And last year it was massive volume. He had 146 targets. That was a career high for him. The previous years had been 84-106-105. He's dealing with Devontas Smith on the other side, who had 136 targets himself, Dallas Goddard, on and off the field last year. But, you know, A.J. Brown is a force. He's a physical. uh dominator you can throw the ball up to him you can throw those uh sideline you know almost jump balls that he ends up winning uh there were so many times last year and i know because i saw the look on jason's face where that ball went up and you just knew what was going to happen uh j brown is just bigger than you stronger than you faster than you and uh that's been the case so you know

Where does it go right? Where does it go wrong for AJ Brown this year? We got him at six. We obviously think it's going to go pretty well. Yeah, it's going to go great. I mean, this is a guy who his first two years in the league was a top 15 wide receiver for fantasy while averaging fewer than 100 targets. And now he's in a position where he's getting 140 plus targets. He's just too good. He's in his prime. He's got a great quarterback. So how does it go wrong? injuries. End of case. He caught 10 of Jalen Hertz 22 passing touchdowns. So, you know, could he lose a couple of those? I think, yeah. I mean, that could happen. Goddard or Devonsa Smith variables. But yeah, it's going to be a really smooth ride for A.J. Brown this year outside of injury. And the nice thing is with those targets, what we saw for, you know, not, you know, probably the first time in his career was.

consistency. He's always been a high upside big, you know, he can go and finish as the wide receiver one for a week and dominate down the field. But now, you know, over his last 17 games, we have him scored with an A in consistency, 76.5% of his games above that threshold of good games. That is much higher than even Devante Adams with 180 targets. So I really don't see. how it goes wrong outside of injury. I'm very confident drafting AJ Brown. I believe that he is as close to a lock to be a top 10 wide receiver as you could possibly be. And, you know, if you say, could he be the wide receiver one overall? Yeah, he's got the talent. He's got the skill. Yeah, he scores 15 times he will be. Yeah. That's what I mean, that'll happen. And then when we're, we're splitting hairs with these wide receivers.

It's not a terrible thing to look at the first four games just to see what's going on with their schedule. AJ Brown will be playing at the Patriots, but then he will be playing the Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay and Washington. That's three juicy matchups. And then just to highlight, to compare to Devante Adams, who will be playing at Denver, at Buffalo, Pittsburgh, at the Chargers. So Devante Adams could be a... He could be a buy low by week three. Yeah, but you know what you just showed me? You showed me that they, once again, the Eagles of that first month, they don't get second halves. They don't get to throw the ball. They don't need second half. I know. I mean, it was good last year without second half. You want a title with first halves. That's all. We don't need you to get a second half. Number five is a player that, that AJ Brown has entered this category, which is elite quarterback combined with elite production overtime.

means they're automatic. And Stefan Diggs is in that category right now. Comes in at number five. I have them at six. Jason and Mike at five being drafted at the end of the first round. He's played three seasons now with the bills. There is so much consistency in this offense, head coach, quarterback, you know, Josh Stallion himself. Season averages with Buffalo 161. That's the targets. 112 receptions, 1396 yards and 9.7 touchdown. So. Yes, please. Yeah, you just kind of don't pass on Diggs because of his tweets. Well, okay. Maybe there's more answers to this at this Madlib. Don't pass on Stefan Diggs because he keeps doing it. That is something that happens in fantasy. You take the sexier name of the unknown whoever. Don't pass on Diggs just because it's kind of like his elite play has become routine. Yeah, you're looking at Garrett Wilson. You're like,

Exactly. What if he's Stefan Diggs? Exactly. No, Stefan Diggs is still. He's still there. He still will be him for what he is him. He is him. He is him for at least one more year. Yeah, it's like, Garrett Wilson, can he get to 1,500 yards? Oh, that'd be awesome. It's like, dig. Diggs is sitting over there going like, I had 1535 yards. I do it every year. I had 1429 yards. So yeah, I mean, he's. And the competition target wise is, is not impressive. Like. It's we hope James Cook is good. We hope Dalton Kincaid is good. We hope Gabe the Babe. We hope Gabe the Babe. That's a nickname. Oh, it's there. Brooks did it. No, it doesn't. Are our nickname is good, Mike? I stand behind most of them. The dump truck? Oh, that's great. That's top tier. That was a great. And I got to give credit where it's due. That was Kyle. Yeah, now how do you feel about it? You mean blame. You got to give blame. No, credit. So he, you don't want the tweets. Gabe the babe.

All the offensive weapons, Kalio Shakir and other players, they are all projected. We hope they're okay. But when push comes to shove, Diggs will be the guy. And what's really cool is he was very upset with his targets last year. It's ridiculous. He had 154 targets and he was like. He saw Adams with 180. Yeah. And he's like, I'm not coming. I'm not showing up for first day of camp. I'm going to send a message because I'm unhappy with my role in the offense. Your role is. as a superstar. Stefan Diggs was out indefinitely. That's true. They didn't know. It was one day. When you hear him complaining for a team that he's that good with that good of a quarterback, like he's got the dream scenario for any wide receiver in football. Paid well, great quarterback, clear number one, piles of targets, still unhappy. Don't understand it, but it's just a, it's like one of those wide receivers. Stay hungry. Like someday they'll look at the DNA of wide receivers under a microscope and they'll find that gene.

That just gets mad at things. It's discontent. Yeah. But I do love, at wide receiver, I love a squeaky wheel. I mean, I love it. That's why Adams will not have fewer than 175 targets. Yeah. Because if he'll punch another photographer. Ran into, ran into. Okay. Tyreek Hill comes in at number four. I've got him at two. He's my second favorite wide receiver in fantasy this season. You guys haven't before, which is where he's being drafted. He's been a top six fantasy-wide receiver in five of six years. He is the definition of you get it all. It's not Amon Ra where you get the PPR, not the touchdowns, not the big plays. It's not, you know, even what you got with Devante Adams last year. It was like, oh, it's a two touchdown game and big plays, and then where was he in the second half? Like Tyreek Hill is, like, it's programmed into Tua's brain.

He goes back. It's Tyreek first read and also Tyreek last read because when the play breaks down, Tyreek is somehow 15 yards away from anybody else down the field. I rewatch the six touchdowns in that Baltimore game, the big comeback. Right. Tyree Kiel is so far away from people in these plays that it doesn't seem fair. Like Tua can't even throw far enough to get to him? Well, no, just that his separation from the defenders. is laughable. It's like you're watching a flag football game for your kids where they forgot one kid was back behind there and they just run wild and free. You know, he's a monster. Like I said earlier in the show, highest targets, highest receptions of his career, or sorry, highest yards and receptions of his career, 31% targets per route run last year for Tyree Kill. He did all of that. Set those numbers with Tua being injured.

at times. So, you know, it's not hard to say good things about the top four wide receivers. It's just that there were really only, other than the final week of the year, week 18, which you weren't playing him, there was really one game, one, the entire year that he actually hurt you at all. The rest of them, it was like, I mean, he finished number four at the position five different weeks, number two at the position, two different weeks. It was a really good year for Tyreek Hill. Yeah, it was. 12% bust. If you're going to say anything bad, it's ironic, some of his best games were, as far as targets, like, you know, you talk about he had those times or he finished as the number four overall wide receivers. Two of those games were without Tua. When the backup came in, those were really bad Jalen Wattle games, and you just threw the ball 15 targets, 14 targets to Tyreek Hill, because, I mean, if I'm coming in,

Yeah, yeah. I know what I'm doing. I'm going, where's that dude that's wide open and faster than everyone? But it's not like he had bad games with Tua. He had good games the whole season. I do think his, I wonder if Tua is there for all 17 games, if that is, it's great for Tyreek Hill, but I wonder if that's almost his, maybe not his peak just because it's better for Waddle. as the ball might get spread around a little bit from a quality quarterback. But there's no complaints. You can't stop him. He's too fast. Really nice opportunity, at least in week one, against the Chargers. Cooper Cup, Mike. He sits at three right now. I got him at four, Mike, and Jason at three. Yeah. And it is, unfortunately, a little bit scary as if you're just tuning back into fantasy.

Yeah, if you're just tuning back into fantasy football and getting ready, Cooper Cup has a hamstring injury. He injured it in training camp. They're calling him day to day. The quote is he'll be back in the right time and stuff like that. I mean, I don't know what Michael LeFour is doing here. Just say indefinite. Yeah, taking care of. We've got a word to describe what you're saying. Yeah, we don't know when he will be back. hamstring injuries that shut players down in training camp historically are very scary. It's so hard when the upside is so insanely high. The upside is the overall number one player. Cooper Cup had not lost it. Despite what the Rams were doing last year, like it was a bad product on the field, they were not a good team. Cooper Cup was still by far dominating. He was the number one.

wide receiver and points per game over Justin Jefferson by a few points before he got hurt. That was the separation. That's the upside. Let me test. But you-hoo. He was, he was just, sorry, I just want you to know the pace that he was on because we're talking about all these numbers with all these great wide receivers. It's hard to find complaints. The pace he was on last year before he got injured. Guess his reception pace. Let's go 160. 153 receptions. Okay. All right. 1,700 yards and 12.8 touchdowns. I mean, just the best of the best. He finished in the top 24 and he played nine games. Let me test you. Let me test hamstring worries. You're drafting today. Yeah. You're staring down other running backs where you had been drafting Cooper Cup. Eckler Cup. Oh, man. I think I still take Cooper. Hmm.

I'm drafting today. I'm drafting today. Why the risk when you get Echler? I think I go Echler. Echler's worth it. Kelsey. No. You're not going Kelsey over a cup? No. I'd be willing to do that. Mike? Yeah, I mean, I guess I need to move Tyreek Hill above him because I would take Tyreek. Bejohn. Cup. That's the break for me. That's where I. Wait, how could you not take Echler over Cup? Or you did? He did. He did. I said I was, I have Echler just a few spots lower than you guys. Bejohn? I think I still take Cooper Cup. Diggs? That's a really tough. I mean, based on rankings right now, you would, but if you have pushed game to shove and you're staring that down risk-wise, it's scary. It is. I think I think I would take Stefan Diggs over him. Don't draft till later, people. Jamar Chase at number two.

also known as Mike's number one overall wide receiver right now. Which I just found out this morning. I was unaware that he was your number one. He's been there for a long time. I love it. Okay. Jason, you have him at two. I got him at three. Last year missed some time. He's a superstar. He is. He is a superstar. And the reason I have him number one, I think there was a lot of meat left on the bone there for, for Jamar Chase. I mean, the fact that he jumped from 81 receptions in 17 games as a rookie. He had 87 catches in just 12 appearances last year. Like he was he was already being used more, right? Like you saw the target share jump from 24% up to 29%. 29%. That's an elite level target share. If you're right around that 20, 30%, like you're going to be incredible.

when you combine the talent of Jamar Chase, and then you also had the kind of the strange anomaly of the yards per catch dipped from 18 down to 12. I don't think he's going, I think 18's kind of an outlier, but 12 seems too low to me for Jamar Chase. Perhaps it's a product of just the way that the NFL defenses are shifting to that shell. It's also the quantity of receptions that you liked about him. You know, that's naturally going to happen. Right, but I think that 12 is too low. I think that's true. I think he can see that target pace and still be up in the 13 to 14 range. Yeah, he could be at 15 like Devante Adams who had 180 targets and still ended up at 15. What about those bus games though, Mike? He's sitting at 0%. Concerning? I don't even know how that's possible. 12 games, no bus. That seems impossible for a wide receiver. All wide receivers have bad games, but Jamar Chase is too good. And when you get 30% of targets coming from Joe Burrow,

They're great targets. They're on point. They're leading you ahead of defenders. His pace last year was 190 targets. I mean, that's not what you thought of Jamar Chase beforehand. And I don't, I absolutely do not believe. I don't. I don't believe. Daddy. I don't. I think there's the... What is that? I don't. I don't believe it. I don't know what it is, man. It just sounds funny. I do not believe at all that we have seen Jamar Chase's best season. Like there's no way in his career. I agree. Right now. And, you know, he's 23 years old. Let me share something. Yeah. And let me share you upside. Okay.

And the difference. You need to understand out there the massive gap between Jamar Chase and T. Higgins in terms of involvement in the offense and actual talent. T. Higgins, 18% targets here. Jamar Chase is almost 30%. Red zone targets, 12 for T. Higgins. Jamar Chase had 26, despite being injured. Okay? That 26 turned into how many red zone touchdowns? Five. For Higgins, it was four in 12. So there's opportunity on those red zone targets. We talked about DK Metcalf. It would be kind of wrong to say that his touchdown upside is there. And then you look at those red zone targets for Jamar Chase and don't say that he could put up, he could put up 18 touchdowns. That's in Jamar Chase's range of outcomes. He had nine last year. It would be very easy for him to put up 12 to 18. DJ Moore has started playing in the NFL in 2018.

Jamar Chase has more career touchdowns than DJ more. Pour one out for DJ. Yeah, that's just, yeah. But yeah, he's well worth consideration. Like Jefferson, who were about to talk about Hill, Cup, Chase, which Adams, to be, all could be number one this year. Yes. And worth, it's at least worth mentioning for Jamar Chase. Again, if you're just tuning in, you may have missed it. Joe Burrow. suffered a calf strain last week. Was that when that happened? So Joe Burrow will basically be shut down until the season actually starts. We don't love a franchise quarterback having a calf strain for what on a calf. If you looked at the video, he already had a sleeve on that calf. So he was already, he knew something was wrong with it. So that that is, that can be a slight concern for if you're out there and you want to completely avoid.

any risk with these top picks. Yeah, I don't worry at all about the lack of preseason or anything like that. That doesn't scare me at all. It's just a matter of there is a chance of reaggravation. Yeah, re-arvation and tweak one. Tweek one would be bad. Yeah. A dune to see it. Justin Jefferson is number one. Is that Ms. Delfire? Oh, yeah, it is. Is that what that is? I don't think so. Yeah, that's Miss Dalfire. No, at least avoid. I don't. She's a higher voice, dear. She's up here. Well, is that the pronunciation of the word, though, is what we're getting at. That's just Scottish to me. A dude. I don't. Or is that Irish. I don't know. No, that's Scottish. Give me doubtfire again? I don't. Okay. Thank you. Justin Jefferson is number one. Yeah, real bold. Look, I believe he's a good wide receiver. I think he's going to be.

getting yards and targets in this offense. Okay. He's good at catching the ball. Did you just say you believe he's going to get yards and targets? Yeah, yeah. Like when I watch him, I see a wide receiver that I believe in. And I think that when he's on the field, he's just really nice. Incredibly, Adam Thielen is vacating the second most routes in the NFL. Yeah. So, you know, Addison's a rookie. And KJ Osborne is a wide receiver, two and a half. And so everything's guaranteed for Jefferson. He has the most targets through any player's first three seasons of the NFL at 476. I don't think Madison's as good as cook, especially in the passing game. Like there's just nothing to stop Justin Jefferson this year. And so he is the safest pick. If you don't want to stress, just take him with 101. It's, it's.