AFC North Breakdown + Tale of Three Seasons, Dome Time! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/8

Five receptions in a game. You had to do a lot of mental gymnastics to get to wasn't that much of a difference. No, I didn't. Yeah, I mean, you're saying in a certain stretch of the game, if you extrapolate that out, then he's close. Eight games. So from the time he came back, him and Cream Hunt side by side for eight straight weeks to end the year, which you said earlier this offseason, they figured that offense out over the course of the year, Kevin Stefansky first year. Yeah, because O'Dell Beckham went out. Okay.

I'm just pointing out there's a just very small difference in reception totals. I think that for fantasy purposes, Nick Chubbs ceiling. Can he finish number one? No, no way. That's okay. That's a question. Brooks, Brooks. Can he finish number one? Yes. You're wrong, Brooks. Do you guys want to fight? I'll take a number one finished water bed if it wants to. Of course you will. That's your kind of bet. First four games for the Browns, Kansas City in Kansas City. That'll be a tough first week.

Then Houston. That'll be a nice second week. And Chicago, Minnesota. So rubber's going to meet the road for the Browns. I think the Ravens are the best team in this division by a lot. I think the Ravens are going to win it. I think it's Browns, Steelers after that. And then the dark horse. Genuinely, the dark horse in the division. Cincinnati. It's more of a tiger, but. It's fair. Yeah. A dark tiger or a striped horse.

Stripe Tiger. Let's just call them a Bengal. All right. Last year, 4 and 11 and 1. They played Cleveland close in both their games. They beat Pittsburgh once. Zach Taylor's record through two years, 625 and 1. Not great. It's not great at all. Have had some few things up against them. But last year, 29th and points per game.

14th and pass attempts, 17th and rushed attempts, dealt with injuries to both Mixin and Joe Burrow. The storyline for this team has been, hey, Joe Burrow, tons of volumes. Zach Taylor gave tons of volume to Andy Dalton when he was the quarterback, gave it to Burrow right out of the gate, no warm-up period. But it was a very inefficient passing game. And I know that you'd love to lay it all at the feed of A.J. Green. But I went and dug into that a little bit. It was just inefficient through and through. He was nine of 48 on deep targets, right?

That's the third lowest adjusted completion percentage on deep targets. AJ Green was awful. T. Higgins had more. T. Higgins had quite a few more deep targets than AJ Green did. And more catches. He did. He did. But it wasn't good, though. I mean, you look at the deep target success as a whole. It wasn't just AJ Green letting them down. It was a bad, deep passing game through and through, not having AJ Green, I admit, will help.

You add Jamar Chase and you hope that those connections start to happen, even the best are what, 35, 40% on those deep passing games. But what are we expecting out of this Bengals offense this year? You hope the offensive line is going to be improved. I mean, they were 30th last year. It has to be improved. I mean, when you add Penaes Sewell at the number five pick. Oh, no, they didn't do that. They wanted to get another wide receiver in there.

Yeah, they got Jamar Chase. He plays... I feel like they bungled that one. Is that like a bangled? Yeah, it was a bangled jab. You could have gone bangled. Yeah, I didn't know which way to go. Okay. You win some, you lose some. But you're content with where you went? I'm going to stay where I was. Bungled? The Bangle's bungled? The Bangle's bungled. Yeah, go on. Well, I just laying it out there for you. You've got hopefully better offensive line. Despite not investing that pick, they do get their first round pick back.

from last season. They were trying to invest on the offensive line. Maybe they felt burnt, Jason. Maybe they felt like, man, we did that last year and all he did was get hurt. Let's get Jamar Chase. He's big and sexy and he's going to run down the field. So from the Bengals point of view, the reason that I was so confident in Jamar Chase being the pick going into the draft, even though that isn't what I was going to do or would have done, they believe in the actual pieces on this offensive line, like to a man to a position.

They're confident in where it is going into 2021. That's why I didn't think they were going to go Sewell. And the truth is this offensive line will be much, much better than it was last year. The problem is Burrow took a lot of sacks and some of them were definitely the offensive line's fault, but a lot of them were Joe Burroughs fault, wanting to be a hero, holding the ball too long, maybe it was slow processing. But he showed flashes of brilliance. If he didn't get injured,

catastrophically, like his knee was destroyed, he would be such a popular fantasy pick this season for me, and I believe for you. Right now he is for most people. I couldn't believe how high his. His 80 people blows my mind. He's the quarterback 12. He's being drafted as a quarterback one. I don't think you should do that. I do not think you should do that either.

And this office of the line may be improved, but it might take time. I mean, look at Miami last season. They had a lot of pieces, but they were young. You've got to gel. You've got to come together. You're playing in a division with the Brown's defense and the Bengals, I mean, and the Ravens defense and the Steelers defense. So you've got what, six games already? This is the second or third best division in the league, and this is the clear worst team in it. If you took genuinely Joe Burrow without an injury.

You give him six of his games during your fantasy season against the Steelers, Ravens, and Browns? I'm not excited about any of those matchups. You talk about streaming quarterback decisions. If you're sitting there, you would never stream Joe Burrow against those three teams. No, no, you wouldn't choose that as a streaming matchup. Maybe if the Browns don't come through with the improvement that we expect them to have, maybe the Browns are okay, but you wouldn't stream against Ravens. You wouldn't stream against...

the Steelers. And the issue with Burrow is whether or not he will be able to do what he's going to be able to do this year in week one. When you draft him at the 12th quarterback overall, you're saying I'm starting him week one. I'm starting him week two. He had a torn ACL and MCL with additional damage in the knee joint. And he's a mobile quarterback.

So your choice is for Joe Burrow is start in week one coming off the injury, which is risky business against Minnesota at home. And then you get to go on the road against the Bears and the Steelers. Not good, not good. Yeah. So why draft him? Don't draft Joe Burrow. I mean, if you're in a dynasty league, I love Joe Burroughs outlook and, you know, you want to draft him high in a startup. Fine with that. In a redraft league, if Burrow has a wonderful breakout.

season where he really takes a step, it becomes a top five fantasy quarterback. It's going to happen the second half of the year where you can trade for him and not just have to draft them and get losses on the way to that. I am the lowest of the three of us. I haven't at 21. You at 17. Mike at 19. None of them close to his QB12 ADP. So I think he's like off our boards completely when it comes to like he's going to get drafted before we tell you to draft him. I know that. Yeah. They're kind of the opposite Ravens to me. The

on the offensive side of the ball, low, like low amount of pass attempts. I feel like you're going to need a lot of pass attempts, a lot of comeback attempts, but that could provide a lot of value for Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Joe Mixon, if Mixon is out there three downs. Yeah, I think Mixon is going to be the clear fantasy.

star from this roster because it's Joe Mixin and nobody. Say what you want about how bad Giovanni Bernard has been over the last couple years, but he's been out there taking snaps, he's been out there taking targets, and he's not there anymore. Joe Mixon will be a true three-down back. The question is, will he plays, you know, enough games to be worth it? If he's out there, I think he's a great pick. One of my favorites this year. Right now he's going into 206, and to get a three-down running back,

in the second round, I think, is just great value. You liked what you saw, albeit you only saw him for six games last year. But you had two of the last three games on the road at Baltimore, Indianapolis, two good defenses, ends up with six receptions in one of those games, 24 rushing attempts in one of those games. And, you know, the tool set is there. He just needs to stay healthy.

Yeah, that is all it is. And, you know, his specific injuries, they don't strike me as anything that should be reoccurring or cause a higher, you know, rate of reaggravation. It's not, you know, soft tissue issues. Last year's 17 game pace with Gio there was 337 rushing attempts and 59 receptions. Yeah, I mean, he's great. So.

Draft Joe Mixing in the second. This is the best opportunity to get him because he's out of value right now. O'Dell Beckham Jr. or Jamar Chase, you have to draft one of them. Beckham is going in. Oh, they're back to back. Oh, this is a delight. This is spectacular. They're back to back in drafts. You get to put one of them on your roster in the sixth round, Jason, you lucky dog. I would, uh, oh man, they're back to back. I would draft.

If I, so this is only I have to draft one of these two. That's the game we're playing. That's the game we're playing. Yeah, I mean, that's what I said. I would draft. Oh, man. I would draft O'Do Beckham Jr. Oh, you just said that you'd rather draft Hollywood. Here's, here's the thing. I disparage O'Dell Beckham Jr. Yep, you do. You know, he really is off my board. I don't want to deal with it. I don't believe he'll have a great season.

But I do see the route to it. He's 29 years old. He had a couple big weeks last year and was injured. So if he comes back and has a good season. How do you not see the route for Jamar Chase? So with Jamar Chase, the route, the difficulty that I have is that I know Tyler Boyd's going to get his, right? He's the slot guy. He's going to take a ton of targets, 130. That's just slotted in. I really strongly believe that this season, T. Higgins.

is a better fantasy option. He'll have more value than Jamar Chase's rookie year. Jamar Chase, you know, he didn't play football last year. This is a guy who's coming in as a rookie, and they're going to feed him the ball. I know he's a rookie. But T. Higgins is coming into a year two where he had a great year one, and I just don't see Chase having a better year in 2021.

Do you think O'Dowell Beckham is going to be better or worse than 67 for 908 and 6? Worse? Worse? Yeah. Yeah, that was T. Higgins' rookie season. It was 67, 908 and 6. You didn't say I could draft T. Higgins here. I'd take T. Higgins over at both of these guys. My point is, if you can see the path, you just said you could see the path for O'Dell Beckham having a successful season. If the path for a successful season wasn't painted by T. Higgins last year, the draft pedigree, physicality.

The touchdown prowess of Jamar Chase is a higher ceiling than T. Higgins' rookie year without Joe Burrow. But my, I mean, you're actually making my case for me and you don't realize it. I just said how good a rookie season T. Higgins had. He did, but that's for a rookie. Like he had a good rookie season, not a good fantasy season. He was the wide receiver 30. You just said you believe that Beckham would be worse than the rookie season for T. Higgins, but you're not saying that there's a path for Jemar Chase to be better.

I see a path for both of these guys. It's a matter of whether you're talking about what you're projecting and what you're putting probabilities on versus what could happen and what you see a path for. You just said you chose Beckham because you saw a path for him and you didn't see one for Chase. I don't see a path for Chase to be better than T. Higgins this year. I will bet you anything in this earth over that. Water bet 2021 fantasy finish. T. Higgins versus tomorrow. I feel like I want more on that bet.

Like T. Higgins v. Jamar Chase, Mike would be proud of me here. Okay. What is Mike sipping on the beaches right now? I got it. I got it. Okay. Okay. Whatever you want to order, bourbon and bones, other person pays. Oh, that's a very fancy restaurant. It's a very fancy restaurant. Okay. We've got a bourbon and bones. Yeah. Lose or buys. And the water. Go T. Higgins. Water bet.

That's Brooks. Make sure this doesn't get forgotten when Jamar Chase blows T. Higgins out of the water. For the record, if it wasn't obvious to those out there, I would take Jamar Chase over T. Higgins 10 times out of 10 in his rookie season. They're being drafted four picks apart. Okay. I've just been. Oh, yes, Broxie. I've just been informed, we have already made this bet this off season. Well, we haven't made the bourbon and bones. No, that bet is great.

as long as I win it. Otherwise, it's going to be expensive. Oh, yeah. You know I'm not going to be shy on that order and process. No, I know. Caviar, please. Man, that'll be fun. All right, Jamar Chase T. Higgins, big bat a bet. That's great. Anything else from this team that you want to dig into? They start, like I said, Minnesota, at Chicago, at Pittsburgh. The win total for Vegas hasn't been six and a half, which would be a two and a half game improvement, two and a half game improvement over their four wins. Well, and they've got an extra game to do it.