AFC North Breakdown + Tale of Three Seasons, Dome Time! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/8

better this year which look I know I don't do baseball but you got the Tommy John surgery that's supposed to become your arm gets better right and then a thing no it's not a thing okay well then great because outside of some crazy narrative like that I don't see how Big Ben goes from being a rookie of the year situation right where you have the surgery and you come back with a fastball the absolute dream the absolute dream some accident causes me to have a superpower

Well, look, I think the argument that Mike has made, to be fair to his narrative here with the Steelers, is simply that maybe his arm is more healthy now after another year post-surgery than it was last year. But it's not going to be, he has age working against him. Right. He doesn't have, you know, and it's been a little while. Now, Deonti Johnson, Chase Claypool, Juju, these are all very valuable wide receivers.

And again, if you finish 8 and 8, which is where 9 and 7, where Vegas has them, doesn't mean that these guys can't be valuable parts of your fantasy team. My money's on Deonte, because I want the volume. I'd rather have the volume in the offense than counting on efficiency from Big Ben, especially if they transition to a running offense. If I'm looking at these three wide receivers, my money, as far as who I'm willing to draft, would be on Chase Claypool. Because I don't.

see Big Ben having a great season. And so I want the touchdowns versus the volume. I get the argument of saying, especially what we saw with Big Ben last year where he dinks and dunks and just can barely throw the ball as quick as possible. He snaps it and throws it. That doesn't benefit Chase Claypool. But I believe in wide receivers coming into their second year, taking that second year leap. It really is a second year leap now. It used to be a third year wide receiver leap.

like a decade ago, but it's year two when they break out. So I want to take the shot at Chase Claypool. See, I think he's going to move. We disagree strongly there because I think he's going to move away from what doesn't work. And we started to see that part of his game failed to be successful. So why would he go back? Wait, which part of his game? Because when he started getting the ball out super duper,

got worse and worse and worse. Like, it wasn't good for the offense. You're talking about the offense as a whole. I'm talking about, look at Peyton Manning at the end of his career. You had to move your offense to facilitate what the elbow could do. That's my point, is if he can't throw the ball deep because of the age, because of the transition in the offense, why is he going to make that the focal point? Well, that's the part of the game that struggles. Because Claypool, when he doesn't get that target, we'll give you five straight games outside the top 35.

I guess the difference here is I don't think Claypool only scores deep touchdowns. I think when you're in the red zone and you have the big body, that's an advantage. They also, if you remember last year, they started giving him a lot of carries near the goal line on Jet Sweeps because he's got crazy athleticism and he scored a couple of touchdowns that way on the ground. So it's not just a 60-yard bomb as Claypool's only opportunity. If there was a gap in their ADP of significance, I could buy it.

But it's not that big. It's 509 to 612 right now. Claypool could end up being nothing for my team. Deontay cannot be nothing for my team. 612 sounds like a better deal. And now what are we doing with Juju? We talk about Deontay versus Claypool, but could Juju be the one here? I'd rather eat raw fish than drive Juju. But I know that there are some raw fish you like, right? None. Oh, you don't like? Foolish man. So you're the sushi connoisseur. Yes. Are you all over Juju?

Um, no, no, I'm not. But he actually does have the best, uh, draft value. He's going third in the seventh round. He's going six picks behind. And I think if I had to look at Deont, Deonti Johnson is the one I don't want the most because he's a fifth rounder. And in the fifth round, I think there are great wide receivers. This is the hope that you get 180 targets. I don't think that happens. So you're willing to, to take the second year leap narrative with him with Claypool, but the third year for Deonti.

is not something you're willing to believe in. It's ironic that you brought up. 163 target pace last year. He's going to be phased out. You brought up that you don't think that the draft value is wide enough. I disagree. Where Deontay Johnson is being drafted is ahead of Cooper Cup, ahead of Tyler Lockett. Those like that's, I'm not taking Deontay Johnson ever in that range. Whereas.

Claypool might, you know, be only a round and a half later. But when you look at the wide receivers going after him, it's DJ Chark and, well, Juju. They begin this season at Buffalo, Jason. So we're going to get to see this Pittsburgh team's, well, 11-0 start last season. That may be challenged quickly in Buffalo for week one. Then they play the Raiders, the Bengals, and in Green Bay, in Green Bay.

So that'll be an interesting start to the year as we get to see Najee Harris for the very first time. Yeah, Najee is really the only player I actively want from this roster. Okay. But I'm fine. At their draft prices? Yeah, I'm fine with Chase Claypool. Eric Ebron will be a streamer through the season. Yeah, he doesn't get talked about, but you're right. But the only player like I like, I would love to leave a draft with Najee if I get him a value. If I leave with Chase, I'm fine with that, but I'm not like targeting him in my drafts. Final word.

on Najee is that if he doesn't get the passing game work, which is not a guarantee. Because we've watched. Clyde Edwards-A-Layer last year. Clyde Edwards-A-Laird, Josh Jacobs coming into the league with only that pedigree. Even Miles Sanders, to a degree, in year one, it took a while. Not a guarantee. So if that doesn't happen and you have a bad offensive line, it could be low ceiling, okay? Yeah. Maybe high floor. Maybe 10 points is guaranteed from Najee every week.

You could definitely be disappointed in Najee. There's no guarantee he gets passing work, but I believe he will, and I don't think you will be disappointed. All right. Let's talk about the second place team last year, but with the highest wind total projection heading into 2021, the Baltimore Ravens. They finished 11 and 5. It was a roller coaster ride. Tale of three seasons. I've read that book. It's a good one. Oh, yeah. Yeah. It's got the whale on it, right? Yeah. Bobby Dick. Yeah, that's it.

Moby Dick was one of the main characters of Tale of Three Seasons. I thought so. They started the year five and one. Then they lost four or five games. And then they won five in a row heading into the playoffs. This was the resurgence of Lamar at the end of the year. If you had him in the beginning, you were not disappointed. You were devastated. You had to pay so much to get Lamar.

and then weeks 1 through 11, which is the fundamental part of your fantasy season where you were building your playoff team to make the playoffs. He was the quarterback 9. Yeah.

And you probably play in a 10 or 12 team league. So you had the quarterback nine that you had to spend what a second round pick on. Which means you didn't have a great running back or wide receiver core, one of those two. And you very well did not make the playoffs to enjoy his incredible run from weeks 13 through 17. Now, someone like Mike the fantasy hitman Wright, who traded for Lamar Jackson midseason, bought him at a value, you know, when he was struggling.

actually made it to the playoffs and enjoyed that. That's how you want. That was the way to do it. So the question now is the receiving, the passing game is everything for this team. Like that's what we have to nail down. That's what we have to as fantasy managers figure out. What does the passing game look like for the Ravens? Because I know how I view it. I believe I have a pretty clear picture of, you know, what I think will happen. But I'm curious your take.

on 2021 Ravens Passing. Okay. Last year, 30 second in pass attempts, 30 second and passing yards, pace of play 31st. We've talked about the small pie. That's what we're talking about, about total pass attempts. It's an efficient offense, but you don't get a lot of opportunity. 62 plays a game, eight fewer than the top teams in the league. So it's a slower run-centric offense.

where Lamar is going to tuck it. I think that, by the way, small sidebar here, Mike's strategy of trading for Lamar late in the year, it's worth mentioning it again. We talk about drafting quarterbacks late. That doesn't mean we don't want a great quarterback. We want the best quarterbacks. Oh, yeah, I would rather have the best than the worst. So if someone drafts, let's go through the elites, you know, the Allen's, Lamar's, Kyler, Mahomes. Mahomes.

If someone drafts them high and they go through a low and you can get them on the cheap, go for it. Yeah. Because you're getting, you're not paying the draft value. But anyways, back to the passing game. Here's what I know about Baltimore. They don't throw it a lot. They were extremely discontent with the receiver core.

as they should be. So that's a chicken or egg, right? Why throw the ball a lot if you're very discontent with the guys that are trying to catch the football, right? You went out last year. You kick the tires on Des Bryant in the year because you couldn't get enough out of, look, Hollywood's a good player. You just kicked the tires. You put the tire on the car, man. I mean, they literally put Des on the field and threw the ball to them. You put the bald tire on the car. Like, I got to drive on something.

That's right. And then the offseason, they go out, they sign Sammy Watkins, they draft Rashad Bateman. Hollywood can't function as your only option. That's nothing against Hollywood Brown. But he was their only kind of viable option outside of Mark Andrews. Yeah, Willie Sneed is, he's not. I mean, he's not enough. No, no. He's a wide receiver four or five for an NFL team. And he was thrust into being the wide receiver one, two over the last couple years.

So my, and I'll hand you the mic, so I want to hear what your breakdown is. But my thought is this, look, they were 11 and 5. They're a year removed from being, you know, Lamar Jackson with a 10% touchdown rate and being the talk of the town winning the MVP. They've had success doing what they're doing. They're going to pick their spots on offense. There could be value week to week with Rashad Bateman early on, but they're still not going to be in the top half of the league in pass attempts. There's just no way that's going to happen.

Yeah, the way that I see this is, look, they just spent back-to-back first-round picks on wide receivers. They went out after every wide receiver in free agency and tried to sign them, whether it was ju-ju or Gala Day. They struck out. Nobody wanted to go to the small pie. But from the Ravens standpoint, you look at what their transactions are showing you, they want to throw the ball more. But you're right, they've had success, they've got a good defense, and they are.

otherworldly at running the ball. So I think Lamar has a great season. I think Rashad Bateman coming in really helps Lamar. I think it's huge. I think it helps Marquis Brown from an NFL standpoint. But it makes me OUT on all the receiving options. Like a lot of people, I mean, Rashad Bateman was some people's absolute favorite rookie prospect coming in this year. And they want him. I've seen people, oh, I've scooped them up in every league I can get my hands on him. And it's like, that's great. He's very talented. I don't want him.

I don't want to touch this pie. I did last year with Markis Brown. Give me Rashad Bateman's ADP when you get a chance. And it looks like it's about the 12th round. So, I mean. That's my flyer if I'm taking one. Really? It's my, I'll take a 12th round flyer on Bateman, yes. I will not. That's fine. I think no one's going to be hurt by saying no thank you to the passing, the receiving weapons in Baltimore. I agree with that. You can say.

Yeah, they're not on my list, and that's totally fine. Yeah, I mean, outside of Mark Andrew. We could say that Hollywood disappointed for fantasy purposes. He was great the second half of the year because he was scoring a touchdown every game. But he was good for the Ravens, and now they're not going to go away from him just because they didn't draft Rashad Bateman because Hollywood wasn't good enough. They drafted Rashad Bateman because they need multiple good wide receivers on the field. That's all going to come back to Lamar. I think Lamar has a bounce back season and is very, very good.

So to illustrate that, you just said Hollywood was really great for the Ravens last year. But for fantasy, being great for the Ravens, never finishing as a wide receiver won in any single week in 2020 and four weeks inside the top 24. So you can be a great producer for the Ravens offense and be irrelevant for fantasy. Yeah, because the passing game is so.

teensy tiny see i expect them to be more like 27th 28th than past attempts in yards this year so are you if you're not taking flyers on the wide receivers are you taking a flyer on gus edwards week 6 to 16 he was the uh he was their rb one he ever's 9.7 points per game they gave him a financial uh package to extend him this year j k daubbins gets the press gus gets the rock is he going to share this i mean it's a third round pick versus a 10th round pick