Top 10 Quarterbacks + Bold Takes, Hype Train

Ah, welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast. You're just joining us for the first time. We did have two top ten accuracy ranks in the draft. So we do, we've got to go when we get the little silly for all those new listeners that are, oh, that don't dive deep. We dive deep. We're going to need a drop that when things kind of fall off the rails for a second, I hit it. And it just goes, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, just so you know. Reminder. Just a reminder.

They actually were very accurate in their predictions. Moving on. So anyways, but with the fact that you've got five out of seven years for Cam Newton where he has finished in the top five at quarterback. We're not talking like, oh, he's okay. He is one of the elites most years other than those two outlier 17 finishes, both of which he didn't play 16 games. I would say that...

The chance for Cam to finish top five this year is extremely high, and he's being drafted as the seventh quarterback off the board. So here is where we start getting to what I believe is actually good value in your draft. If you're afraid of – I don't draft a quarterback before round 10. I mean – I'm tier-based, so it could happen, but usually that's when it matters. Andy is petting our Cam Newton McFarland.

Here, you know, but I love him. Due to the rushing capability, the wide receiver weapons, the draft cost, this appears to be a very good outlook for Cam Newton. I love him so much. The combination of upside and draft position, he's basically an eighth round pick, and he didn't just run last year. His 754 rushing yards were the most for a quarterback since Russell Wilson put up 859 back in 2014. It is...

What you get with Cam, at least right now. He's 28 years old. He's going to do it at least for a couple more years on the ground. I'm just a really, really big fan of the value. If you told me Cam Newton was being drafted exactly where Russell is, look, we all have Wilson ranked higher. It wouldn't be a discussion. I wouldn't be as excited. As a fantasy commissioner, it's not just excitement about the player. It's excitement about what he represents in the fantasy landscape. And this year, he still represents.

With Cam Newton, you're getting... Like, I would take it. I would just draft a quarterback. You're getting very affordable, maybe cheap pants, jeans. No, track suit. Full track suit. Foundational. I don't know if that's better. Here, the difference though. What's a onesie? Is he a onesie? Oh, like a singlets? A romper? A romper. That's where I was going. We're downgrading. So it's a better around difference in draft price for

from Russell Wilson to Cam Newton. Even though he finished as the number two quarterback, he harmed your team 50% of the time. I know he comes through with these league winning, I should week winning types of performances, but Russell Wilson was far more consistent. I mean, does he harm your team with a 17 finish or an 18 finish? Yes, 100%. If you are finishing as the 17th or 18th quarterback in a week, that's a harm.

Yeah, I would agree. Okay. Russell did it five times. Cam did it six times. So. That's a lot more. That's one more. It's one more. Yeah, not a lot. I wouldn't go a lot. I heard you. Five and six. I heard you wrong. I apologize. Cam was 13, 17, 18, 15, 17, 22 in those weeks. Russell Wilson had a 24 or 23. Yeah, I mean, I'd take Russell Wilson over.

But for the round value, I would actually see... Like, if I could go 801, Cam Newton, and he's my, you know, eighth player? Oh, my goodness. Sure. Oh, my goodness. All right, let's move on to another player you might know. Number four. Tom Brady. Tom Brady is funny because he's our consensus four, but he's not ranked higher than six than any individual ranking. It's the combination of...

You know, you're going to see the picks, the quarterback rankings after Tom Brady. You're going to see more and more variation in where we have guys. Because I have Brady at 8. Jason, you got him at 7. Mike, you have them at 6. Yep. He let, I believe he led the league in, what, receiving yards last year? Not receiving. Passing. Passing yards? Yes. We're good. Yeah, that's what I meant. 4,577 yards. 32 touchdowns.

Only eight interceptions. You know you're going to get efficiency with Tom Brady. 26 passing touchdowns in the red zone, the most among quarterbacks. I mean, it was a really solid year for Tom Brady. Over the past, what, seven, eight years, he's really been a top five quarterback. I mean, that's what you expect from Tom Brady. But there's been a lot of turnover at the pass catching area in New England. He's getting older.

Do you think he belongs at this number four spot? I mean, I don't say any situation where I have him because he's going in the fifth round. Yeah, I mean, look, if he finishes as the number one quarterback, no one's going to be surprised. He's Tom Brady. He puts up great numbers. But you do have to weigh in the risk of, you know, I said this even last year and he had a great year. But when you are 40.

41 years old, you deal with injuries differently. And he didn't get injured last year. That's great. But, you know, we saw this with Peyton Manning, and this was coming off of a world beating Peyton Manning. It wasn't like Peyton had lost a step. It was once he got that injury late in his career when he was getting near 40, it was hard to recover from. I know that you're the plant man, Tom, and your body is primed, and all the vegetables are keeping you healthy. It's 80% chlorophyll.

Right. Yeah. That's why his numbers are so green. Oh. Green means go. He's great. But there are risks. You do have losses. You know, he lost Julian Edelman for the first four games. He lost Brandon Cooks. You know, Philip Dorset got injured. I mean, we don't even. He's still got gronk. That's all he needs. He's got Gronk. He's got Hogan. He's getting Edelman back. I like Tom Brady. But what Andy brought up, the fifth round, that's where. No, thank you.

I mean, you just look at the other wide receivers and running backs available in the fifth round versus the running backs and wide receivers you're going to get in the eighth, ninth, tenth, 11th round, and then compare the two quarterbacks you would get. I'm fine letting someone else track. Taking Tom Brady, you're going, you're going down the bunny hill at the ski lodge. Yes. It's fine. You're going to be safe, but you're just, you paid a lot to not have much fun. Okay. Number five. Drew Brees.

Hotly debated Drew Brees. Nonsense in here. He's number five on our consensus rankings. Too high. He's 10 for me, 9 for Jason. And number two for Mike. So this is your show, Mike. You can write it. If you are in the Ultimate Draft Kit, we have a report in there called the Consistency Charts. And we show you how a player has finished each and every week of the previous season. We have them in there for 2016, 2017.

Drew Breeze last year. So if you finish in the top 12 at the position as a quarterback, you're green, right? You got a green week. Jason just said, green means go. If you finish in that next tier of quarterbacks, the tier in which Mike said, hurt your team. Right, and it absolutely does. It is yellow. Drew Breeze is looking all musterdy. He's a corn on the cob. He's got four weeks last year where he was a QB1. That's it.

Four out of 16. Every other week last year, he was a quarterback two. And quarterback twos are not good enough to help you in a single quarterback league. First of all, mustard is great. But not in this case. Not in this case. No. He crushed you last year. He still finished as a quarterback one because he never had those weeks where he was, you know, the 30th quarterback. He was always at least quarterback two. 25% of the time he was a QB1.

And, you know, we saw this for several years in a row with Philip Rivers in the past where he was consistent enough to where he wasn't the worst. And at the end of the year, his rankings would be good. He'd be the quarterback 11 or 12. But he killed you if you actually played him through the season. He just didn't have enough upside. I think that that's what you're going. I think Drew Breeze bounces back has a better year than last year. But if you're, I will, I will say that half of his games, he will not be a quarterback one.

At the end of the year, will he be a quarterback one? Sure. But half of his games, he's going to hurt you on a weekly basis because he's not going to need to throw for three touchdowns at 300 yards. He can, but he won't need to. And so he won't be called to do that. I mean, half almost, there's like what, two quarterbacks last year that were over 50%. So if that, I mean, that's the standard you're holding him to. I'm saying that's not even a realistic.

expectation. I'm saying that that is the best case scenario for him. I'm not saying that's worst case. I'm saying the best that he does is that eight of his games are going to be those games where you go, okay, he didn't crush you, but he didn't help you win this week in fantasy football. Mike, I'm going to toss it to you, but here's what you do know about two briefs. He's very, very likely you're going to, he's going to play 16 games because he's been doing that for the last eight years.

more than that. So you're going to get him for every game. You're also going to get a quarterback of an offense that should finish in the top 10, at least in the league. Yes. So these are two things you know about him. His three-year average right now is 42% of the time he's the top 12 quarterback. I believe in the rebound of Drew Brees. I do not believe that he's the number two overall quarterback. Mike, if you believe he's the number two overall quarterback with that 612 draft position,

Is Drew Brees going to be on some of your teams? It's possible. If he drops into the seventh round, do you think Drew Brees will be your quarterback? Not likely. Okay. Because of just the replacement value and how I treat the drafts. There's still going to be players that I want in that sixth and seventh round. Over the past five years, the Saints pass-to-rush touchdown ratio is over two to one. In fact, sometimes well over two to one. Last year, you had an anomalous drop.

from 2016's 2.3 passing touchdowns to one rushing touchdown to a one-to-one ratio. Drew Breeze was coming off of three years of leading the league in passing yards. Yes, the numbers were down. I can't argue against Drew Breeze being bad for fantasy. The facts are facts of what happened last year, but I can call it anomalous with the very, very strong and very long history.

of what Drew Breeze has done under Sean Payton in New Orleans. He has weapons. Michael Thomas is an elite wide receiver one. I've talked at length about how the deep completions, the deep touchdowns, it just didn't come for Drew Breeze. And that's the touchdowns. Not the deep completions because he's one of the best deep passers in the league. His touchdown rate over his career is 5.3% this past year. It was...

4.3%. We talk about if you're in on Marcus Marriota's positive regression, how can you not be in on Drew Brees having a positive regression? It's really, really simple. It's really, really simple. You're talking about a five-year period where there was a monstrous change from having one of the worst defenses in the league. Like literally, you played against the Saints every time there was a possible matchup and fantasy because you knew that there was going to be so many points scored.

Two, all of a sudden, one of the best defenses of the league on one year change. That's what changes everything for me in the equation. So then isn't that, isn't the counterpoint of that, though, that when he's had a great defense in the past, they were one of the best offenses and he put up some of the best fantasy numbers? That's a great point, but that is a much younger.

much younger. 2010, that's eight years ago. Okay, 2013, they had a top five defense in giving up points and yards, and he was quarterback two on the year. I don't buy the defense argument at all. That's a cool thing about fantasy football. We get to find out. And on top of it, he has no Mark Ingram for the first four weeks. The work that is gone from Mark Ingram, it's not all going to Alvin Camara. They're going to have to lean on the passing game more in those first four weeks.

Number six. All right, maybe the biggest surprise of our consensus rankings so far. Matthew Stafford comes in at number six. I'm at four. Jason, you've got them at six, Mike, at 11. And so, you know, in some ways, I guess this is my Drew Brees pick of this top group. Sure. He's just a player I believe in last year, number seven, the year before, number seven. The year before, number nine.

He is a reliable 4,000-plus yard passer with opportunity, I think, to improve on that slightly. Probably going to get around the same amount. Seven years in a row with 4,200 yards or more. He's got a really nice schedule to begin the year. I really like Matthew Stafford as a late-round quarterback option. Beyond Cam Newton's value, it's Matthew Stafford for me because he's basically an end of the ninth round, early 10th round pick in most drafts.