Top 10 Quarterbacks + Bold Takes, Hype Train

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What about the second running back off the board? Oh, you're talking about the rookies? So Barclay, Sony, Michelle, Rashad Penny, Darius Geis, the first four running backs off the board. Literally the thing I look forward to watching in the preseason the most. You know who is playing? Carry on Johnson. Carry on Johnson. All the focus is on Carry on and Royce Freeman. And as far as I'm concerned, watch out, guys. Those two need to keep their head on a swivel because...

These rookie running backs are banged up. It's the running back position. This is what happens. And this is the reason that people go zero running back. Because of injury. Because of injury. Because later round running backs can appreciate in value while late round wide receivers rarely do that. Strong point. Let's get into the main event.

This is why you just take a quarterback with all your picks, Mike. Oh, yeah, certainly. You want to go early round. You know, the first pick, take your quarterback. So if you've been a part of this show, you know we subscribe in almost all cases to a late round quarterback philosophy. That the quarterback position is one that the majority of leagues, you only start one quarterback. And so it's a single position. It's not running back where you start two or wide receivers.

We generally prescribe that. Now, if you're in a two-quarterback league, changes the equation, right? You've got to start just as many quarterbacks. You've got to compete and fight for, you know, multiple quarterbacks on your roster with all the other league mates. I say all this because we're sitting here talking about the top 10 quarterbacks. And in a lot of cases, if you subscribe to that philosophy, you might not get these guys. Right. So if- By choice. Yeah, by choice. But what I would pay attention to is, look, this is our top 10 consensus quarterback rankings.

The names that you see here, a lot of them actually fall in that later around quarterback category, and that's how we have them projected to finish in this top 10 range. So pay attention to those names and why we believe in them because they will be potential values for you later in the draft. And look, if we have extra time, maybe we throw a sleeper out there at the end of today's show. So let's kick it off with a name that you might know. Number one.

Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers. Next. I like to talk about Aaron Rogers. It's like I've gone down Madison Avenue and I'm just doing some window shopping. I'm looking in going, man, look at that real expensive, cool leather jacket that I will never ever have. It looks cool. I would love to have it, but I'm not paying up. I'm going down to Ross.

Do people wear that jacket all the way to the title game, though? No, they think they're cool. They think they're hot stuff. And then they go, well, wait, I paid $600 for this jacket. Mistakes were made. That's why I don't have any pants on. You could have had a whole outfit. I could have bought pants, but now I don't get pants. I just get this jacket and I'm still cold because I got no pants. Yeah, look, Aaron Rogers is great. Just remember, you dropped the quarterback early. You are a pantsless fool. Exactly.

The running backs equal pants. Wide receivers equal shirts. That's why they're always trying to sell you watches when they open the jackets. I don't get it, but okay. This person in particular should not open the jacket. Those are the people I don't want to see anything beneath the jacket if that's all you're wearing. All right. So back to Aaron Rogers. He is fantastic. There's no debate there. Since 2011, he has...

averaged a 16-game pace of 38 touchdowns. Yes. Yes, voice of public opinion. But Jason, he scores more points than anybody. That is true. That is 100% true. Aaron Rogers will score more points than most people in the league for two reasons. One, he's the best quarterback, and two, he's a quarterback.

All the quarterbacks are going to score more than most of the players in your league. Russell Wilson. I mean, you look at Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan last year scored more points than most of the players in your league, and he was the umpteenth, you know, finishing.

quarterback. The quarterback position is valuable across the board. The difference between Aaron Rogers and the 12th best quarterback is much less than the difference between your first running back or your first wide receiver and your 36th running back or wide receiver when you're starting two or three of these at the position. He's great, but I will say this. He's going to be the first quarterback off the board. He has lost his number one target in Jordy Nelson.

I think he'll overcome that, obviously, because he's Aaron Rogers. Reggie Wayne was... He's lost his number one target many times in his career. And I know Jordy Nelson was a stabilizing force at the wide receiver position for Aaron Rogers. But he... Jordie did not make Aaron Rogers. No, correct. This is his fantasy finish. Since 2008. Since 2008, 2.1, 2.171.

Yep. Man, that's seven. Can we move on now? Yeah. Yes. Number two. Number two on our consensus rankings, it's Russell Wilson. Russell? And I will say this. I probably won't have Russell Wilson on many rosters, if any at all. But the first thing I want to call out to, Russell Wilson, since his career began.

has finished as a quarterback one every single year, including two top three finishes and last year as the number one quarterback. That's six years. Look at the average draft cost of Russell Wilson. The beginning of the sixth round or the back of the third round for Aaron Rogers. Russell Wilson's a stud. He's a rushing quarterback. He gets the lift, gets the boost because it's only 10 yards per point on the ground as opposed to one for every 25 passing yards.

He's got Doug Baldwin. He's got Nick Vanette, the new hotness coming in, Nick Vanette. Russell Wilson's a great player. He gets it done every single year. I don't know if there's much else to really talk about. He had 34 passing touchdowns last year, most among quarterbacks in the NFL. Why don't you handicap his percentage chance of finishing number one overall again for a second consecutive year? Because I actually have it pretty high. I would say.

I'm going to give it about 30%, which I think is high. I think it's a 50-50 shot. Just because, look, if anything, this team has turned into a more offensively dependent team. They want to run, but does that just mean that Russell Wilson ends up running more? The nice thing is Russell Wilson is being drafted as the fourth quarterback off the board. So you're drafting a guy who, I mean, look, he could finish eighth.

you know, he could finish behind fourth, but you're not drafting him at his ceiling. And when you get him in the sixth round versus Aaron Rogers in the third round, you at least get shorts. You know what I mean? Like you got the jacket, but you got shorts on because you were able to use your third round pick on a running back or a wide receiver and your fourth and your fifth round pick. What about this? Brooks had a good question. If Doug Baldwin is out,

let's say we find out he's going to miss some time. How much do you downgrade Russell Wilson production-wise? Do you believe, I mean, genuinely, we would apply this philosophy to anybody with the top-tier-wide receiver, right? Big Ben's not going to be as good with that AB. Julio, if he's gone, Matt Ryan doesn't put up the same number. It would be significant to me. I still would have him as a quarterback one, but it would be...

near the end. I would assume he would be my quarterback 10, 11, 12. He's going to get it done on the ground and find other weapons. But when you lose Jimmy Graham and you lose Doug Baldwin, if you were to lose both of those pieces, you can't have him repeating as the number one quarter. I'll say this, though, 2014. Doug Baldwin, 825 yards and three touchdowns. Russell Wilson quarterback three on the year. He finds other guys. He will get it done.

He was the number one quarterback last year, and he didn't have 4,000 yards passing. That's the stupidity of Russian quarterbacks. It just shows that that may be true, Jay, but it is what it is. And at this point, if the defense takes a step back, if the division's difficult and they find themselves in deficits, and Russell Wilson runs around and chucks the ball deep to a healthy Tyler Lockin company, it's probably going to be another good year for Russell Wilson. And going at 603, it's a strong case.

Probably won't have him, but I can at least accept when people say, well, I had to grab Russell Wilson. And by the way, that year that I mentioned of 2014 and Doug Baldwin's line, that was the leading receiver on the team. It's running. It has always been running for Russell Wilson. Number three. Speaking of running. Cam Newton comes in at number three on our consensus quarterback rankings. I have him at three, Jason three, Mike four. Last year he bounced back.

In fact, his last four years have been a bit of a yo-yo. In 2014, he was the 17th best quarterback. Then he went to that Super Bowl number one season. MVP. Yeah, that was a league-winning type of year, especially where you acquired him. And then in 2016, he was back down to 17, and the doubt fluttered in, and everyone was afraid he wouldn't run again. And then last year, he was number two. And this year, he picks up a healthy Greg Olson, at least for now, DJ Moore.

a rookie-wide receiver with a lot of talent and ability, and then he's got the power of a pass-catching running back in Christian McCaffrey and Norv Turner at the helm as the offensive coordinator. Jason, Mike, as the resident master of the horoscope.

Oh, goodness. How are things looking in the, have you read the constellations for Cam Newton? No, I, when you talk about Carolina, you've got to go crystal ball. Oh, I apologize. But I've looked into the smoke of the ball and I will say this. The ball smoke? The ball smoke. Wheels falling off the wagon here. Look, Cam Newton. Man.

has the best. It's bad news when the ball is smoking. Core of receivers that he's had in his entire career this year. You know, Steve Smith in his peak was better, but as far as... That's really his rookie year, that's it. Yeah, and as far as a complete team, with all the weapons you just laid out, you didn't even mention Devin Funches, who was, you know, a wide receiver two last year. Scrumptious.