Fantasy Wildcards + Cook Holdout, Rebuild Tips - Fantasy Football Podcast

We're not in place last year. I agree. He's a wild card because you've had seasons where players have done this and that emergence persists. And you've had players that are a flash in the pan and disappear. I mean, sure. It's difficult. Sure. I will jump in here. The first player I want to highlight running back for the Baltimore Ravens, Mark Ingram, who was a top 10 running back last year, but he did so on.

a volume that seems like it just can't possibly happen again, but it can't. When I'm looking at Devante Parker, and I'm saying, okay, is top 10, is it realistic? Sure, it could happen, but I just don't think it's a realistic outcome for this year with all the variables with that team. There aren't variables for the Baltimore Ravens. In fact, their defense has gotten better. If they want to just...

fully commit to the ground game and the defensive side of the ball, they could do it. Last year, Ingram had over 1,000 yards on the ground, just over 200 carries, but 10 rushing touchdowns. And this is in 15 games. He got hurt at the very end of the season. On top of that, he had five receiving touchdowns on 29 targets. That is insanity. But you have all the regression.

That seems to be coming for the Baltimore Ravens offense. Last year, the Ravens scored 531 points. Over the last five years, we see on average about 1.2 teams a year scoring over 500 points. And we haven't seen a repeat in the last five years. Will the Ravens be the team? That does. Will they be able to not have a letdown after the success of last year?

And now they drafted J.K. Dobbins. They have... Who the fantasy community is absolutely in love with the destination situation. And as am I. But, and that's one of those variables of like, did they spend a day to pick on J.K. Dobbins to get him involved right away? Or is it still going to be primarily Mark Ingram? And then on the fact that Mark Engram was very old.

for a running back. He didn't look like it last year. He was unbelievably elusive. But eventually these guys get too old to be playing the running back position at that level. So I just, I don't know what to do with Mark Ingram. I don't think fantasy players do as well. Right now in best ball draft, he's being taken as the RB28.

despite finishing as a top 10 running back. That's probably too low for this year. What's crazy to me is that when I think of Baltimore's efficiency, their offense, it brings me back to the Saints running game that once had Mark Ingram in it, where Mark Ingram was underrated and undervalued year and year out because he partially shared a backfield, but that backfield was perennially efficient.

And he was perennially efficient. He year after year after year after year outperforms his ADP. He'll do it again this year if he's the running back 28 in ADP. But you're still limiting the upside of Dobbins, the timeshare, the regression. So yeah, I totally get this one. Mark Ingram is a guy that when I think about the players I really want on my team, he doesn't, he's not there.

But then it's like, yeah, I don't want a guy who's always doing very good on a really high-powered offense. Why? That's dumb. I would say that if he suffers an injury this year, they have the personnel to make a return to like a high workload, a lower probability. Does that make sense? Or like if he goes down and Dobbins comes in and further establishes himself and you have the other pieces in place, maybe that's the pathway for Ingram. But you don't base your projection. Right.

For a player that is that valuable on maybe he'll get injured and not come back. Yep. It's tough. Marking room is tough. Yeah. So he is certainly a wild card. And he feels right now to me like a player that I probably have too low. Right. Because of the fact that, like you said, I mean, the Ravens are probably not going to have the offensive season they had last year. It just doesn't matter who you are. You just don't generally run it back.

Yeah, right now I have Mark Ingraham at 22 as of the time of this recording and I'm looking at it going, man, that is too low. It's just too low. I got to go look at his projection. Preaching to yourself? Yes. Sometimes, look, sometimes I use the show as a way. I'm not actually talking to anybody. I'm talking into my reflection in my laptop. Yeah. Sometimes it needs, that's the whole point of this episode is to kind of walk through these and see how we feel. Julian Edelman is the player I'm going to bring up.

Nice. He loses Brady. We have no knowledge or history of Stidham having success in the NFL. It could be a completely run dependent team with a great defense. He's 34 years old, and we've talked about his injury history. And yet, he's coming off 100 catches, 1,100 yards, 6 touchdowns. And we bring up time and again, like, it doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. If you're the guy at the wide receiver position, there's value there. I started to think about...

Remember Terrell Pryor's kind of banner year? That's when he was Terrell Pryor. Yeah, one year in Cleveland. You'll get kind of, though. Take you, James. And one year in Cleveland on a bad team, but he was the player. Right. So I wonder if, because we have Julian Edelman at 34 in our consensus rankings, Mike, you're the highest, not surprisingly, at 30, but that's not very high. Right. And then his ADP is at 35.

He's an eighth round pick. Is there any doubt that Julian Edelman's the number one target for New England? No, not for me. So you have all those variables that you know that the wheels could come off, but when you're coming off 100 and 1100 in six. And also just to highlight, you know, because Julian Edelman, the same argument can be made about marketing, but like, Edelman is just, he's older. You realize that was the most receiving yards that he's ever had in a season last year? Like.

That's where the blinders, the age blinders can come on. Yes. So I think part of what makes me resist Edelman is sealing because, okay, yes, he had a great year last year. So he comes back with Stiddlem and what does he give you? If he gives you 80 for 803, are you happy? Probably not. Or what's his ADP? Where is he at right now? Eighth round. You're definitely not happy if he gives you 80 for 803.

Maybe. In a PBR league, just knowing that that would be a consistent performer for my team. So 100 receptions last year, if I said over under 85. I would take the under. I've got them at 78 for 837 yards and four touchdowns, and that puts them at my wider receiver 41. I just don't believe it's. So maybe this sounds like a wild card discussion that's leading towards.

I'll take the over on that. You would take the over on 85? Interesting. All right. I was thinking maybe, I mean, it's been a little while since you guys put one on the board. Do you guys want to go head to head on 85 receptions? How many receptions do you have him for, Jay? I have him for 78 receptions. Yeah, all right. 85 works. You want it, Jay? Sure, but this carries with it. No injury.

uh qualification here because he usually i mean 12 games two years ago nine games four years ago 14 you know he misses time he and so you're the man taking the under why are you giving another term oh i'm saying i don't want it to be if he misses games he's out of it because he was on a pace to have more than 85 oh oh so he's saying that no matter what happens you're the under if it gets injured it still counts mike you comfortable yeah that's fine water bat

All right, Jason, give me another wild card. Oh, this one's, uh, Julian Edelman's missing this man. Yes, this is, uh, the reason I'm taking the under is because Tom Brady is no longer throwing him the ball. But when it comes to Tom Brady, what a wild card. We, we already talked earlier, 12 personnel. Is it, are they, are they going to move away from what they did last year with James Winston? I mean, obviously it's a, it's a whole new quarterback. Are they going to use Bruce area system? Are they going to use Tom Brady system?

Tom Brady is old, but now you're telling me that you give the greatest quarterback of all time a gun slinging offense. He wants the challenge. His goal is to leave the Patriots, leave Bill Belichick, and show that he is the reason for their success. He wants to take Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl. If you look at the Vegas odds, they're pretty high up there in, you know, as far as finishing in the running for a Super Bowl. He has Chris Godwin. He has Mike Evans. He has.

Grunkowski's got O.J. Howard. The weapons are the best he's had in forever, and this is an offense now that is going to be the piece of this team that wins. So I could see, I mean, when I finished statting out Tom Brady in the ultimate draft kit, my goodness, I was scared of my ranking. I think I had him at five or six, and I have moved him down a little bit.

to just be a little bit more realistic with the risk involved, but that's the other side. You can't ignore the fact that he's changing teams. He's changing players completely. He has no rapport with anyone outside of Gronk. He is 40, 300 years old. And that's the real issue here is that let me read you. Those aren't plant years though, Jason. He's 26 in plant years.

In plant years, yes, that's good. He is the plant man. Here's some stats for you. 4,659 passing yards. 5,477 passing yards. 4,727 passing yards. Those are good. Those are good numbers, right? Great. Everything is great. Those are very good. 3,598 passing. Not as good. Not as good. Okay, let's lower number. Let me try some touchdowns. 37 touchdowns. Would you like that?

Yeah, that would be great. How about 55? I like that. How about 55? I would like that very much. How about 39? Also excellent. Oh, those are great. How about 14? You want 14? Lower. That's lower. No? Okay, final stat here. Final stat. Let's look at interceptions. How about 11? That's a low number. That's fair. How about 10? That's good. 15, whatever. How about? Okay, last number, 27.

This is what happened to Peyton Manning when the wheels fell off. And I am not reading you his shortened season games. I'm saying the 16-game pace of Peyton Manning that final year was 3,500 yards, 14 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. And that was right after incredible excellence, you know, otherworldly First Ballot Hall of Fame performance. So when that season, when the end comes for Tom Brady, it will.

It will not be kind. It will come with Thor's Hammer and it will destroy Tom Brady's fantasy value. So all of that's baked in, but I look at a Bruce Ariens lead offense, a Tom Brady great quarterback with all these weapons, and I am banking on.

a high performance. I drafted him. We were in a fantasy cares eliminator that's going on right now, and I actually, through that draft, drafted the Tom Brady-Gronkowski stack. So, you know, and that's my action. I, you know, when you're talking about these wild cards, you've got to make your bet. I am betting on Tom Brady. I believe it's going to happen, but these Peyton Manning stats, all the very... Brett Farr have had those stats, too.

I mean, Brett Favre went from a 4,233 touchdown, seven interception season to in 13 games, 2,511 with 19 interceptions. So the wheels fell off quickly for him too. It's just predicting the year. And I do not predict it to be this year. But my goodness, if you're wrong on this bet, you're not going to be like, well, he was okay. It's going to be bad. I'm curious of what people will do with a hot start, too. I wonder if that's like the poison.

for a fantasy. If he starts hot in those first couple weeks and you buy into what you saw in those couple games, you could be real trapped into him. You're curious? You know what the answer will be. The plant man reigns. The hot start is the poison for any player. You're right. As soon as I see week one and week two, I have ripped my pants off and I'm running down the streets declaring my victory because this player is a success. Weeks one and two are very...

trepidacious as a fantasy. They get us all, man. As a fantasy analyst, too. Oh, yeah. Sammy Watkins last year. Yeah. Yes. I had to decide whether to just take it on the channel. I'm super wrong about Sammy. Yeah. It didn't feel good. No, it'll happen. All right. Mike, you've got one more. I've got one more. All right. I'm going to talk about D.K. Metcalfe, wide receiver from the Seattle, Seahawks. Because what is he going to be? He feels like.