Fantasy Wildcards + Cook Holdout, Rebuild Tips - Fantasy Football Podcast

Players, when they say they're going to hold out in recent history, they hold out. So I am taking the news report serious. Certainly. But we are so far out of anything actually happening. We don't even know when training camp is going to start. This is the perfect time for Dalvin Cook to flex. The little leverage that he has of saying, guys, I'm.

I don't care when camp is. I'm not going to show up unless you give me a contract. So as of right now, I still think Dalvin Cook will be back. If I, but I mean, if I'm in a draft right now like Jason, it's, it would be very difficult to do that knowing that, knowing the risk what that Dalvin Cook is bringing to my team of not even being there. He's just sitting on the bench.

while I can't do anything about it, I have to wait for him to come back, then all the things of players that, if they're not in a training camp, is their body ready to go? Is it a slow start? Right. Jason's point about the injury is significant as well. Yes. Because Cook has dealt with it. And we love Dalvin Cook. We love the player on the field when he's healthy and ready to go. But there are some variables in place that have raised his risk.

to a point where if you can choose somebody of a similar tier, you should. Yeah, and the Minnesota Vikings cap situation is not the best. Dalvin Cook is lucky that Stefan Diggs got traded. If, like, if Stefan Diggs is there and Dalvo Cook says I'm holding out without a deal, Dalvin Cook is holding out because they're not going to be able to pay him. They can figure out a way to get it done, but this is a very, very high risk situation.

There were talks about getting an extension well before this declaration. Right. But apparently they have not had, you know, three weeks ago, the talk was, oh, we've had some productive talks. This seems to be the next step of negotiations so many times where once those talks slow down, it's like, here's how our proposals are reasonable. Right. You need to accept a reasonable. Now, who knows what reasonable means. It means two different things. But other news.

And we'll be following the Delvin Cook situation closely. Todd Gurley finally was able to fly to Atlanta, pass his physical. All right. Yeah. Step one. Jason's back. Well, it's one of those things where it's like, I've been a pro Todd Gurley's fantasy value this offseason supporter. I think the receptions are coming. And it's always been on the back of my mind. He has not yet even passed his physical. So this is just.

You know, this is like a prerequisite class that is, I've graduated, and now I get to go to the class I was trying to get to. There are only a certain number of players in the NFL where passing the physical is a real benchmark for their potential. It is good that that took place. We've got the, what, the hype train video of him on the arthritic knee lifting a bunch of weight. Have you seen this? I have not, but you've not seen it.

Just the season for workout videos to get us all really excited. So, yeah, the more you post those, the higher your ADP goes. That's how it works. Yep. But it's good. It's not a bad thing. It's a good thing. Correct. So, okay, another big piece of news that kind of broke towards the end of last week, head coach Bruce Ariens, Tampa Bay said that 12 personnel will be the Buccaneers base offense. So a base offense of 12 personnel means you've got two tight-ins on the field.

That means you have two wide receivers on the field. That also means that Chris Godwin is not in the slot more than likely. So they have... This is weird information. They have Rob Gronkowski. They have O.J. Howard. They have Cameron Brate, too. Yeah. Yeah, being base personnel, though, you know, I think last year, the team that led the league was under 40% in 12 personnel. So I think that was the Eagles. It's not...

I don't think this means that, you know, 75% of the time they're going to have two tight ends on the field. I just don't think that's realistic in today's NFL. Here's what I would say. And that's a good point. But one of the question marks around this team is predictability. James Winston's gone. Tom Brady is there. Tom Brady functions in a certain type of offense. And the older Tom Brady gets, there are certain types of schemes and systems that benefit him.

The variability is present for whether Godwin can repeat, whether Evans will repeat. You know, like you said, they're not going to, and Bruce Ariens is not an idiot for so far. I mean, he's not an idiot. He's not going to take a successful Chris Godman and say, yeah, you know, we're going to move you to a place. You're going to be completely unsuccessful.

I think we all agree he's a talented wide receiver he can play on the outside. And Jay, according to Sharp football, Philadelphia was in 12 personnel 52% of the time. They were the highest. They were the leader, right? Yes, they were the leader. So I guess that is the example here is the best in the NFL was, you know, 50% of the time. So I don't think this is some people are scared off. That matters a lot, though, for a player that you're banking at number five or six a wide receiver, does it not?

No, I don't think it does because I don't think, I think what you just said about Chris Godwin and how he dominated in the slot and Tom Brady and how he utilizes a dominant slot-wide receiver, West Welker, Julian Edelman, like that, it's just not going to go away. What it does do is it kind of builds up the gronk getting on the field more or being more important to the offense. I don't think this, I don't, I did not read this news as something that scared me.

off of Chris Godwin. And last year, Tampa Bay was in 12 personnel 23% of the time. Okay. All right. Interesting. All right. Titans offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith said Derek Henry's workload for the upcoming season depends on how the games go. That's news? Yep. Doesn't all workloads depend on how the games go?

Breaking news. We're going to run this ball more. Brooks isn't present right now. But if he was, I might make fun of him. But I would never do that now. Yeah, never, never talk about how that that was a stupid piece of news to talk about Brooks. I guess, you know, we have said it on the show. A lot that if they don't win, Derek Henry's value is not going to match his ADP. Before we get into the fantasy wild cards, want to thank today's sponsor Omaha Steaks. Omaha.

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You realize that they could exceed that by a lot or they could come short by also a lot. Like the range of outcomes for this player is very hard to narrow down to a just a nice middle ground, a nice median. Predictability. Yes. We just talked about Leonard Fournett on the last episode. Right. It fits that criteria? Yeah, he certainly does right now.

predictability, his range of outcome should shrink as time goes on because that's one of the big factors in Leonard Fournett is what exactly are the Jaguars going to do at the running back position because they could be a wildcard in August. All of a sudden there's another running back on this team. But these players that we're talking about right now, their situations are pretty locked in and it's still hard to see which side of the projection are they really going to hit?

I'll let Jason kick this off. We each selected a couple of players that we're having, you know, we're having some conflicting thoughts about, maybe difficult to rank individually. We can surface these guys, discuss them on the show today. I'd love to hear from the Foot Clan on Twitter at the FF Ballers. Jason, who's your first fantasy wild card?

My first fantasy wild card is a guy who busted in the NFL from his incredible high pedigree coming in, drafted to be a superstar, and unfortunately, Devante Parker just wasn't good. And then, all of a sudden, five years later, he's great. He finishes the season as the wide receiver seven, and he was...

He was better than you remember. I mean, you remember that he had a breakout campaign, but you're talking about a guy who from week four, remember the first three weeks, this is the Josh Rosen experiment and the back and forth. They're not sure who the dolphins are. My least favorite experiment, just for the record. Yeah, I'm right there with you. But from week four on, that is the majority of the season. Devante Parker, do you guys know where he ranked for, you know, pretty much the whole season? After week four?

After week four, week four on, take your guess where Devante Parker ranked at wide receiver. Number one in my heart. Number one in your heart, Michael Thomas will ensure he is not number one in fantasy. But that's it. He's number two. He was the wide receiver two from week four through week 17.

I mean, and here's a deal. He's coming back with another year of experience. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still there. I mean, if you're telling me, yeah, I know, if you're telling me that a guy who was drafted to be great, who was great for the entire season, from that point on, he only had one bad game in week 14. That's Michael Thomas in that stretch had two bad games, week 13 and week 17. So Devante Parker showed that he can be that guy. He has currently the starting quarterback that he.

did that with. He's going to take another step forward, except they drafted Tua. And Preston Williams was injured, you know, halfway through the season. So Parker's target volume went up. And you have four seasons of Parker stinking. So it's like the range of outcomes on Devante Parker is very difficult. I left this season wanting Devante Parker to be someone on my roster.

coming into 2020. And in this off season, while statting these guys out, I'm not bullish on Devante Parker. I think there are way too many variables. And I believe that changing from Fitzpatrick to Tua will be devastating for DeVante Parker's fantasy value. I don't think Parker has gotten to the stage where whoever is quarterback, he's going to make good enough.

But, I mean, we know his range of outcome, right? I mean, he was the wide receiver seven on the season, and that was while the first three weeks, he basically wasn't there. Wide receiver two after that, he's, he is the definition of a wow card. Yeah, it's tough. And this is one of those situations where I kind of applaud the draft community for regulating the value of Devante Parker. I think right now he's the wide receiver 22 off the board, fifth round pick.

He's our consensus 22. So it's the exact kind of spot that he belongs right now with those variables in place. I think Miami's a much better team. I think they've got a much improved defense. I think their running game might exist this year. Sure. I mean, having a running game that does exist would be good as opposed to the Belage experience. I mean, you have both Howard and Breeder there. So those are some things that...