Fantasy Football - Most Surprising Teams + RB Underdogs - Podcast for 6/10

Okay, then I probably would lean the Bucky side. I'm a big Kyrin believer, but Kyrin is over a full round later. You know, Kyrin is being drafted in a place where I think it's borderline inappropriate. Sure. So I will take Kiron. I'll definitely take the Kyrin side because I'll get another running back or a better wide receiver, you know. I think we all think Bucky's being drafted at or above his ceiling, which is too expensive. He's such an exciting player. Yeah, that's where I was taking. I wasn't, I'm with you. I agree completely. Like if it's equal cost, I want the more exciting, younger, explosive, a little bit more like unknown to Bucky. Yeah. Let's see what he can do there. But, I mean, a round later means you get an incredible pick in the second round, and then you add Kyran. It's just hard to imagine flip-flopping that and taking another wide receiver in the third and having it feel as good as Kyron plus that second round pick.

I agree. All right. Dee Hokey writes in on Instagram rather have D.K. Metcalfe or Rashi Rice as a flex. So those guys are going quite close to each other in on a sleeper. Now on baseball, Rice is going much, much higher than Metcalfe. Looking at the underdog ADP, you got Rice at wide receiver 14 and DK down at 27. So. that does certainly. That'll change. Do you think D.K. will go higher? A little bit. Not a lot in basketball, but a little bit. Because of Rogers? Yeah, with the signing. Yeah, with the signing. Your ceiling goes up with Rogers. Possibly. I'm guessing that most of the super DGems that have been drafting bestball teams over the offseason, we're like, Aaron Rogers is going to be there, and they were drafting accordingly. So he'll go up a little bit, but I think he'll cap out probably at like 24.

I think Metcalf has, he's always got the built-in possibility of 12 touchdowns, 13 touchdowns. Yeah, he does. That's definitely going to be possible in Pittsburgh. It's close. I would lean Metcalf. Yeah, to me, I mean, Rushie Rice, I think you brought him up as a wildcard, Andy. This is, his range of outcomes. It's very, it's extremely vast, but I don't see him. The question is, who would you rather have as a flex? Yeah. It's Metcalf. Not because, because Rashi Rice isn't a flex. Roshi Rice, he's up in my wide receiver to, you know. Yeah, but imagine if he was your flex. That would be pretty cool. That'd be great. I think Rashi Rice is going to be wonderful. Like every week, you start him every week, consistent, reliable, the number one target for Patrick Mahomes. But he is way riskier than D.K. McCaff, I feel like is.

You know what you're getting. You're getting a wide receiver two or better in D.K. Metcalf for sure. You're not necessarily with Rushie Rice. Both have a lot of, you know, wild card potential when you have new home for Matt Cave, new quarterback, Arthur Smith always bringing his C game. The Arthur Smith top targets. Kyle just shared this with us. So in 2021, Kyle Pitts was a 20% target share. Thousand yards, or was that the thousand yards? 21 sounds right. One touchdown. The next two years, Drake London was the Target share winner, but four touchdowns, two touchdowns. Then this past year was George Pickens, but a 26% target share, but three touchdowns. Yeah, I mean, that's true, but Desmond Ritter and, you know, Russell Wilson and...

I don't know how those quarterbacks don't throw touchdowns. Right. It's not Arthur Smith stopping them from the touchdowns there. Pitts first, was that Matt Ryan? I think his first year was Matt Ryan. Let me just double check that. Yeah, that was Matt Ryan. Yeah, that's, that's fine. I is, I think there, you, I think D.K's floor is actually really low. Really? I do. I think that it could, I think it can be just like George Pickens last year where you, you. Spike weeks are always possible. You loved George Pickens last year. No, I didn't love him. I didn't love what I was getting. Going into it. Yes. Yeah. Yeah, but then that didn't work. Metcalf's, I think, I think Metcalf will probably end up being one of the dumbest mistakes people make, not taking him. I agree. I think it's just stupid. I mean, fifth round for a guy that's going to be.

soaking up every target. There's no one else to throw the ball to. You got Roman Wilson is like a hope. You just traded everything for him. And then paid the man. And then paid him an insane amount of money. That one seems so obvious to me. I agree. He's very obvious to me as a value in the draft. He seems so obviously scary to me. I really think the floor is incredibly low. I think he's probably the safest. He's wide receiver 31 last year in 15 games for Seattle. Well, yeah. With a better quarterback. JSN took over and started taking all the targets. Right. But if you are that good, then JSN's not going to take all the targets. What if JSN's that good? Yeah, maybe, maybe, but I'm saying DKMet. I mean, the Steelers said it with their actions. They did. Of course. But they also said that Aaron Rogers is the plan. Yeah. They said we don't want George Pickens too. Yeah. They said we don't want George Piggins. We want D.K. McCabe. We'll pay him everything and we'll grab Aaron Rogers.

It'll be interesting. But this is the type of, whether it's right or wrong, this is the type of situation that ends up being the, oh, duh, situation. There's a handful of these every year that won't move up because of like, yeah, like what you just said. That's in the back of people's heads. Mm-hmm. D.K. MacGav just kind of plateaued in Seattle and like didn't care that much and missed some games here and there. And we'll see. but I'm in. Instagram, get on my kevel, says, when do the ballers go to three, four, and five shows a week on the podcast? Great question, great question. July, we go, we kick it up a notch. We go three episodes then. It's not far away. No, that's the next month. I will say the first week of July won't be because that will be the fourth of July. The fourth of July observance. But July is three and then August is five. There is all the way through the end of the season.

Yeah, there's never technically a main fantasy footballers of four. Oh, what? Like we're never at four shows a week. Correct. Yeah, three and then to five. Mm-hmm. And even in the off season, technically, we're kind of like every day because spitballers is Monday and the main show's Tuesday and then Dynasties on Wednesday. And then the main shows on Thursday and a footcast is on. Thursday. So a bonus episode for supporters to join the foot.com. And then on Friday, the DFS embedding shows back. Yeah, we're everywhere. We should totally cut that down. No, you've, you've always got something to listen to. This question comes in from Raj. Has Zay Flowers reached his ceiling? No, he's had four touchdowns last year. Like that.

You know what I mean? Like if he did exactly what he did last year and he just ends up with the nine with nine touchdowns. He can't. I don't think he, I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility with Lamar. You just think he will never. So what is his career high? When he, when he retires his career high and touchdowns of six, I'll take the over on that. Okay. Yeah, I mean, I would have answered the question plainly, yes. What, what we've seen from Zay Flowers the past two years has been nearly identical and I think it's exactly what the Ravens want from him.

in the offense. So to me, he's never going to be a 8 to 10 touchdown guy. I think it's unlikely, but I'm on Jason's side of, I think he is a good enough player. Quarterback through 40 last year. I get that part. Frickin Rashad Bateman taking nine touchdowns. And a couple tight ends. Yeah, but Dave Flowers is of the talent level that it wouldn't be surprising to me if he got up to 8 this year. 5-9-175. I think it's not an insult to say a player is doing everything they should be doing for the team. So I think Zayflowers just probably doesn't profile or will ever profile as a top upper echelon guy because of his stature and route tree. His size says that he's not going to be the boxout in zone threat that the Mark Andrews is around the goal line. But simply.

the fact that he is a very talented jitterbug with a great quarterback and a great offense. And touchdowns are very hard to predict. They're not sticky from one year to the next. And guys who aren't prolific touchdown scores have those outlier seasons where they did get 10 touchdowns. Landry had one. He had one. Exactly. That is the best example. Landry was 5, 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 2, 1, and then he had a 9. There you go. So out of a... Eight-year season, he had one, huge one in Miami. And Flowers is a good wide receiver, so I think he's capable of doing that. That's not necessarily the obvious path in the target, but yeah, I don't think we've, I don't think he's reached his ceiling. Last year was 116 targets, 74 catches the year before 108 and 77. Solid, solid wide receiver, good player. He's only ever had eight red zone targets.

That's wild. Last year he had eight Reds on targets. Okay. Okay. I was like, wow, both. So at least at this juncture with Bateman and those guys, he hasn't been schemed to be a threat down there, but you never know. They have Hopkins now, too, by the way. And Hopkins is a red zone wide receiver. So to me, it's a year away from that outlier. I keep forgetting about that. I keep forgetting they have Hopkins and Bateman and the two tight ends down in that red zone that are going to do some work. Hopkins, if he can do anything at this stage his career, he can run a slant. He can run a slant and catch the football. He did it in Kansas City. He did that repeatedly. But yeah, he's almost dead. Greg in Florida. We'll get to his question in just a second.

Dynasty question from Greg in Florida. Would you trade CMC away for Omari and Hampton? Oh, man. If you're a win now team. It's driving me crazy because I want the youth, but I want the title more. And we have been very vocal talking about Hampton might be a year away. I mean, the comments from the offense, you know, offensive coordinator in Gero, Los Angeles have been how impressed he is with Najee Harris's. knowledge of the offense. So that just reinforces a little bit of the two-headed monster at a minimum this year. Man. I mean, your odds of Hampton, I don't think Hampton can have a full-on rookie breakout with nausea healthy. That's the truth. I think he can be very good, but I don't think you can have a full-on breakout. I tend to agree with that. And this is coming from the two of us both love.

Hampton as a prospect. We were more bullish on him than Mike was. I still think I would do this trade. If I could trade CMC for Hampton on a dynasty, I get that you want to win the championship, but I don't think you, I don't think that this means you can't win a championship with Omari in Hampton. It's just the value. It's going to be harder. Maybe. I think, and, oh, that is such a brutal decision. I mean, there's also the world where CMC is not helping you win a title. Yeah. Because he's injured again or, you know, he's older. So it's not a guarantee. Keeping CMC does not guarantee you a title. If you said. But I think it's a higher probability. I would agree. I would agree. But the value difference here for Hampton, I would just rather have them on a dynasty roster. It's hard of like Hampton. Hampton's going to be, I think, fantastic for fantasy.

you know, in his career where McCaffrey's like, do you have two? You have two potential years of Christian McCaffrey? Do you have three? I think it's two with the chance of three. So I mean, if you obviously, you'll, you would look back upon this trade to see if you want to loss. Because if you get three years of Christian McCaffrey being still a top five guy, then you're, then I think you feel bad that you made the trade. For sure. Yeah, the McCaffrey decision making is going to be a tough one for people. It really, really is. Because it can be a huge mistake. It really can. And it doesn't just come through injury. It just comes from change. You know, we did see him. We saw him in four games last year. He was okay. I mean, I know you talk about the breakaway run he got hurt on. Yeah. But the weeks before, I mean, no, he was. He was never finished as a top 10 running back last year in his four games. And we'll just, I don't know. I don't know.

what he has and what he doesn't have. It's just a bet on a hardworking former top tier running back that whenever he's been healthy, he's been that guy. But that's a 29 to 22 year old. Yeah. You're at the end here for Christian McCaffrey, but that's the thing for McCaffrey is it's always just been injury. Like you can have guys who have incredible careers where it's, they just had a down year. McCaffrey has never had a down year. But he will. He has to because all players do. It's just a matter of are you playing the Derek Henry Gamble? Right. Like Henry will too, by the way. Henry will eventually not have a good year. Like that will happen. But not today. Probably not today. But let me put it this way for you. The year is 2043. You're making the decision and I think I can make this question simple for you. If you get RB12 from CMC for two straight years, do you take Hampton in the deal?

If you, if I told you the next two years, you get the RB12 from CMC, who do you take in the deal? Man. I know. Jason, you can answer? Yeah, my is Hampton for sure. Okay. So what if you get the RB8 for two straight years? Would you take Hampton or would you take CMC? Because I think this is the, this is the path to the answer. The path to the answer is what's the realistic finish for McCaffrey that makes you happy and how high are the odds that you get it? I think what you are. saying when you when you word this question is you're hoping that Christian McCaffrey is a top three back that's it you're saying that he's bringing me a championship if he's not doing that and he's just a good back right then I would rather have the seven years in the age gap and then what how would you handicap top three for McCaffrey this year Mike might handicap a different but to me no matter what those odds are still I best of the best is still not above 50% I

Yeah, above 50%. Why did I sound like a bird right there? I don't know. I mean, I was letting it go. I think he's still got as high a odds to be a top three back as, I mean, just about anyone. Like, if you told me Christian McCaffrey plays 17 games, he's a top three running back. Yeah, I would say he's got the highest odds of everyone. Like Bijan, I would put Christian McCaffrey there higher if he's playing 17. That's-Sacquan. Yeah, I mean, Christian McHaffer is going to catch a lot more passes. Okay. All right. I mean, look, it's not going to be the last time we talked about CMC this off-season. No, it won't. Sam wants to know, is it bad to have a lot of rookies in a starting lineup in a redraft league? No. No. Next question. Yeah, that was pretty easy. On average, wide receiver-wise, four rookie wide receivers finish in the top 36 every year, two rookie running backs finish in the top 24 every year.

So your odds are not, your eye that you're going to hit on all of them. And the pathway for rookies can be bumpy. It can be an onboarding, right? You can have the first six weeks not look great. You know, Caleb Johnson, when does he come on? Maybe Judkins gets it going from the beginning. Maybe not. Maybe Hampton's a second half guy. That's kind of the tough part of starting them week one. But if you did it with Bowers last year, you were happy. And he went late in drafts. And even Brian Thomas, you had, in that first half, you had a top eight, a wide receiver nine, wide receiver four, but you had a lot of bumps in there. And the fact of will there be a Brian Thomas Ladd-McConkie breakout this year at the wide receiver position? And that feels less likely than last year. We have a couple of questions already.

I can already smell the discussions. Uh, Instagram question from Tim. Garrett Wilson or Marvin Harrison Jr. Mike, you were observing Marv's triceps earlier this week. Yeah. Have you seen him? Yeah, he looks. He looks strong, but the lighting was also better. Yeah. The lighting was a lot better. There was some Photoshop in that. There was, there was, that was not human meat. That was. That photo was, I mean, he looked strong and he did work out. I mean, you look at him in the interviews. He was obviously in that particular photo, things are maximize the best they could. I'm sure he went and got a pump. I would did some curls and some tricep work. I'd rather have Marvin for the chance of being a little bit higher ceiling than where Garrett is with the current Justin Fields universe. I mean.

We've kind of been, like we may be heading down the Garrett Wilson path with Marv where we're just disappointed year after year, but that's been the Garrett Wilson experience minus maybe. I mean, last year, even last year was frustrating too. Like he finished at nine, but that doesn't tell the story of having him. It was. Because you had all these dis, I mean, in the last eight weeks of the year. Once DeVonte Adams took over, but before that, it was awesome. except for the first four weeks when you were still a little bit disappointed. So he had like a fire run of five straight weeks, but the ride wasn't very great. Yeah. I'm on the Marv side here for the exact thing you laid out. Just the chance at something great. I don't think Garrett Wilson can be great with Justin Fields. That's just how it's you. I don't either. I don't understand that. Are you making the DJ Moore argument? Yeah.

Like we saw it. There was a player who had never been great who was said, he will never be great. He can't be great with Justin Fields. And then he was. There were a ton of breakaway touchdowns on that. And so, yes. That year he threw for 2,500 yards. So that's the thing is Kyler can throw up for 4,200,000 yards. Justin Fields' peak season in New York this year is 3,000 yards. That math alone is creating a touchdown dependency for Garrett Wilson that frightens me. Yeah, they're really close in my rankings, so I don't have a strong lean one way or the other. If I'm on the clock between the two of them, I probably would take Wilson. What is Teteroa McMillan sealing as a rookie Instagram question from Rick? There have been some a little bit of puff piece hype news on Teteroa McMillan in camp and just how dominant he looks. So we have him ranked as consensus.

29 right now, which I think we're leaving some room to move him. He's 34 in redraft, but he's 22 in best ball because he does have, you know, he's got big week-to-week potential. What's his true ceiling as a rookie? Could he finish as the top 12 wide receiver? No, not a top 12. I don't think, but I think he can make it into the top 24, maybe in the top 20. He is wide receiver 22 for best ball. That's... it's a little rich. I totally understand it. And he, I don't think you'll go that high. You know, the sleeper ADP right now has him as the wide receiver 34 in home leagues, which this, that is fantastic. That is a, that is the exact rookie profile that I want to go after of gives me margin that I already have the guys. This isn't drafting Marv and saying, well, this is my wide receiver too. We're going to ride. It's like, no, I, he, he could be my wide receiver four.

with the potential to end up as a top 24 guy. Yeah, I think his ceiling is probably around wide receiver 15. He profiles as the go up for the ball in the end zone and get the big touchdowns. The issue here is does Bryce Young level up? Because if he doesn't, then it's the same thing with Justin Fields, where you're saying, well, if Bryce Young goes out there and throws 18 touchdowns, Well, you're not having a top 15 wide receiver season. But we did see, you know, we saw Adam Thielen with Bryce Young, his rookie year be hyper-targeted and be the number one for an offense where it was just like it was working. I mean, we played Adam Thieling like every single week. If T-Mack comes out and just is that number one target from the get-go, he could surprise and be, I think, pretty valuable. He's a good player. Low battery writes in on Instagram, our last question here. Is there a chance Jaden Blue?

takes over as ad in boot uh takes over the cowboy's backfield uh very low very low odds of of you know who you know who we have not talked about that should be talked about if you if you want to fade javanti because of life history right and you want to fade miles sanders because been there done that and jaden blue's too small nobody talks about film alpha right who they drafted who came out of clemson so he played at a competitive school who was a 12 you know 11 1200 yard guy and you know profiles to have that potential to me i mean he had 13 touchdowns as a junior eight as a as a senior it's it's just because he he was a seventh round pick they took jaden blue in the fourth

uh and sometimes you do that though you know the uh shiplies of the world get drafted earlier than the the bangers i you know it's just it's a wide open backfield is my point yes it is and if you're going to mention blue to me i feel like he's at least worth throwing out jaden blue is someone that you you definitely can see a path for him becoming fantasy relevant becoming that pass catcher that more explosive guy that has juice that Javante and Miles Sanders don't have. The issue about him taking over the backfield, because he is an undersized guy's 5-9-200, you don't see him as a 300 opportunity player. No. As a day three draft pick undersized, that's just not. He caught a ton of passes. Yeah. And so that's kind of my expectation. If he becomes fantasy relevant, it's because he's playing that third down roll. He's getting a bunch of checkdowns.

You know, in a PPR league, he's someone you might be able to start. But I don't see a ceiling case for him really taking over and becoming the lead back for sure. The toughest part is Blue's going to be on that roster. And those other two guys are most likely going to be on the roster. So Mafa's going to have to fight to make it. Miles could be gone. I guess Miles could get cut for sure. I have a memory of his contract being. Rico was undrafted. Yeah, and he took him a long time, though. It took him many, many years of proving himself. And they still have Deuce Vaughn, don't they? Yeah, he's probably still there. I don't think they can see him. Deuce Vaughn on the, the, uh, couldn't tell if he's in the room. Yeah. The miles. Does he count, like towards the 53 man? Half a roster spot. Okay. That's just, that's just me and Jason started that. Yeah. The Miles Sanders guaranteed money is 167.

thousands dollars if you took that approach on height we'd have half a producer back there oh that's a good point you know what i mean we don't do that kind of we would never we'd never do that uh probably good time to end the show we got early breakout sleepers busts and values coming up on some episodes of the show very very soon underrated overrated we're going to do that as well and don't forget if roster spots were based on total team weight. I knew you're going to say that. I knew you're going to wait. Like you get 10,000 pounds of meat. 10,000 pounds of roster? 10,000 pounds of roster? Wait, so do you weigh in like every... You have to weigh in every Sunday. Oh, for sure. You have a way in for UFC. Yeah, exactly. And so if you're overweight, you either got a cut or cut a player. I like this new idea. So you get every team's roster, it's not players, it's weight. Yeah. Greatest idea you've ever had. Thank you.

man so you just want to be very valuable you got a huge old line you're you're probably a you got a couple less special teamers on the roster yeah okay even the playing field all right well on that note we're done goodbye everybody we will be back very soon Thursday episode and a footcast check out the dynasty show tomorrow goodbye you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theFF ballers.