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Main show · September 25, 2019

PANIC ROOM + Buy/Sell, Melvin Returns?

RSSSep 25, 2019 · transcript indexed
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PANIC ROOM + Buy/Sell, Melvin Returns?

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139 passages
27:47 ↗

or my patience comes from what he did in the playoffs. That was a long time ago now. Fantasy-wise. Sure, but it was four games ago. I mean, it was. But fantasy-wise, that's a long time ago. Not to me, no. Okay. And so, and you've had also three blowouts, and this is a first-on draft pick. So those are the reasons why I don't think, I think it's wrong to overreact to Sony and Michelle.

28:15 ↗

and the snap counts because they're going to need him more in competitive ball games than I think you believe they will. Yeah, I am a two, so I am less concerned than you, too, gentlemen. I believe that the fact that they have not needed him at all. I know you hope that he's the guy that's running the clock out, but when you're up by the level that the Patriots have been up in these games, and you've got a first-round pick who's important to your team with a knee issue that, you know, why stress him out when you don't need him? I'm not worried about his yards per carry.

28:45 ↗

about how ineffective and inefficient he's been so far this year because he's a good back. He looked great in preseason. He's looked good last year. He didn't just all of a sudden forget how to play football. The one thing that scares me the most, which is in the early off season why I was calling him a bust, and neither of you brought it up as threes on your panic scale, he is not a part of the passing game at all. He doesn't have a target on the season.

29:15 ↗

That panics me more than his lack of effectiveness as a running back so far. Bottom five yards per carry on this season of qualified running backs. So there's 75 included. Bottom five. Joe Mixon 2.8. Adrian Peterson 2.8. Carry on Johnson 2.6. Sonny Michelle 2.4 and Damien Williams 1.5 on 22 carries. So it's not the only stat that matters. And especially in New England, it really is not the only stat that matters because...

29:43 ↗

Most of the narrative around Sonny Michelle was this is a guy that could score 18 times. Sure. Because of the offense. So we'll see what happens. Mike, you're at a three. I'm at a three. I'm not liking what I'm seeing. Snap count wise. And Jason's at a two. We're good to move on? Yep. Yes, sir. Let's move on to Juju Samantha Schuster. Juju wide receiver 25 on the season. That is not what fantasy owners wanted or expected. Nope.

30:12 ↗

Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league in time of possession. That's five minutes less per game than 2018. This is a product of, you know, when they had Big Ben, the offense wasn't quite in sync, and now they don't have Big Ben. He's got a 21% target share, which is 31st among wide receivers on a passing attack that is 16th in past attempts. Last year, they led the NFL in pass attempts.

30:38 ↗

and so obviously you have the very strong variable now of Mason Rudolph through the remainder of the year. He is fourth highest in yards after the catch. 76 yard after, you know, touchdown has a little bit to do with that. So where are you guys panic-wise with juju? I am a two on juju as well. A two-ju? I'm a two-ju. That's pretty bad. I am a little worried because of.

31:04 ↗

the change of quarterback. You have to be. You can't just say, well, he's so talented that it doesn't matter who's thrown on the ball. No, I mean, we've seen them with Hall of Fame wide receivers. If they don't have a good quarterback, they're not going to be great. That being said, so far now, half of the season was with Big Ben and half has been with Mason Rudolph. And he's been okay. Yes, it took a breakaway touchdown, but he also had a breakaway touchdown. That's good. He's on pace for 1,300 yards. And I don't expect Mason Rudolph.

31:34 ↗

as the season goes on to get worse. I think he gets more comfortable. The team understands him better. They work things out. I think they're a good organization. I think Juju's very talented. He still had at least seven targets in every game. But I'm worried because his upside is gone. It's got to be a downgrade on the end of season expectation. 100%. I mean, my bold prediction at the Phoenix Live show when we were being spicy was that Juju would be the number one. And that was.

32:02 ↗

A large chunk of that was on the basis that, look, Big Ben has supported a number one many a time. Mason Rudolph is not doing that. Yeah, and I think it would be the same way we would talk about even a player that's been, you know, as consistent as Michael Thomas over a long period of time. Michael Thomas, the ceiling gets downgraded. And it's because you can't hand the ball to a quarterback and expect them to bring you back with...

32:25 ↗

his arm. I mean, if they are down in a game, they're still going to have to balance run pass to take the pressure off of Mason Rudolph. He's not going to be able to string together, you know, a drive with six, seven receptions on it. It's just not in the cards right now for Mason Rudolph because you cannot put that level of dependency on him. So I'm a three. I'm in the getting freaked out because I probably drafted Judy Smith-Schuster if I did to be, which I didn't.

32:52 ↗

to begin with, just out of luck, because I wasn't as high on him, and he just went so high. Not because I didn't think it was going to be a good receiver, just because I didn't think he was going to be a great receiver. So I'm not having to deal with it, but he doesn't represent something to your fantasy team that he did before. Yeah, expectations must be altered. I'm at a two. I think he can still be a solid wide receiver too. That's what he feels like. That's what it was Mason Rudolph's first game. He looked real bad.

33:19 ↗

He was able to get a little bit together towards the end through the two touchdowns, one to juju and one to Deonti. But that was against the 49ers. And yes, we're still early on in the season. But as of right now, the 49ers looked like that team that out of, seemingly out of nowhere, completely turned things around. So I'm going to wait. Let's see, let's see how Rudolph does in his second start. Much easier matchup.

33:48 ↗

Yeah. So we just, uh, we just saw Wayne Gorman go for 77 out of 100 fab in our league of record. And you said, Andy, how much did you bid? Did I bid $65 because I need. Wow, man. I would never have bid that if I wasn't. I needed a win this week. That's all it is. I got you. I was a, you know, I have really tough matchups for like, David, my opportunity, I think plays Minnesota this week. And I'm like, well, would I rather play Gorman, you know, with the passing game work with.

34:17 ↗

The consistency. And so I'm literally, I was like, hey, if I can buy a couple wins, it's worth the price. I was the second highest bid. The rest were in the 30s, 40s. Borrow's, Mike, you spent 32. But he ended up going for 77. Incredible. When you made your 60 plus dollar bid, you had to believe that he was yours. I figured I'd get laughed at. Yeah. Yeah. You didn't even get him. Who's laughing now? Yeah.

34:42 ↗

There you go. I am. Whoever bid 70. But that really, that's how subjective some of the fab spending is. You know, if I was a three and a team in that league, I wouldn't have bid on him at all. It's just a matter of, do I want to get back in on the season with a buy? And my wins now matter more than the wins later. I totally 100% get that. I mean, I didn't bid for Goldman in a lot of leagues, but in the listener league where I needed a start, I bid pretty high on them. So that, that's one of the things that.

35:12 ↗

You know, when we talk waivers, it's all team. Yeah, listener league, I think I did like 30 something. I'm assuming I did not get him. Well, I know I did not because I did not bid 30 something. All right. James Connor, he's RB 30 on the season. We need to know the panic level for James Connor. 59th in pro football focus is elusive rating. That's behind Jordan Howard and just squeezing by Caleb Lodge. But it's ahead. It's still ahead of Kaila Blanche. It is still ahead of Kail Blanche. Everybody is, right?

35:42 ↗

I think it's an instant retirement if you fall below. It's like the Mendoza line. Right. Is that the reference? I hate having to hate Kailin Balas. He's an ex-Arizona State University guy. And, you know, much like Josh Rosen, not in a great position to succeed on this team. Sure. But has looked atrocious. So snap counts for James Connor, 46%. 54%. Week 3 was 68%.

36:12 ↗

Last year he's an 81% snap count guy. So he's actually not been out there. Big Ben or Mason Rudolph, regardless. He's not been out there as much as he was in the previous season. We just heard about the offense and it struggles. He's seeing 79% of the rush attempts. Which is great. Which is great. I'm actually at a two on James Connor. I'm on the worried side.

36:37 ↗

I wasn't really high on him to begin the season. Sure. So for me, it's not a change of expectation in terms of, I think before the season he's an RB2. Right now, I think he's still an RB2. So I'm not that worry. I'm at a two. And going through the snap counts, well, that seems like a dire situation. But 79% of the running back rush attempts, 81% of the running back targets. If there's work going to a running back, James Connor is still getting it. And that includes.

37:06 ↗

James Connor win out of a game for part of it with a knee injury. So I'm out of two. It's the same thing as Juju. The Star Hall of Fame quarterback went down. You got to adjust your expectations. Mike actually got Wayne Galman in the listener league. Oh, did I? He spent $42. Well, there you go. All right. I was like 21 or something. Yeah, 40's about the real. I think that's the real range. 40 to 45. Totally cool with it. There were some rumors this morning.

37:34 ↗

about Jay Ajai availability. Did I get JJ? I bid on him there. Did you really? Oh, yeah. I figured, hey, if I can get him for two bucks and he becomes a starter. If I can get Jay Jai into a nice Giants time share, ooh, baby. It will be, it will be pretty wild to me if Ajai comes in and actually gets work. He's like not.

37:55 ↗

ready to play football. That's the funny part about it is he's not sitting there going twiddling his thumbs like, I'm ready to rumble. He's like working back into being able to play. They said he could be ready this week. For a time during New York? We'll see. I assume you got him. Let's put it that way. So Jason, where are you out with James Connor? I'm a three with James Connor because he hasn't looked the same. The offense obviously hasn't looked the same.

38:23 ↗

And the biggest reason is because the game scripts aren't going to be what we hope they were. You know, you wanted him to be on this great Steelers offense that's in a winning position and running the clock out and being utilized. Okay, so he gets 79% of the running back rush attempts. That's fantastic. But if the team rushing attempts are 75% of what you thought they were going to be because they're down, I'm more scared. So I am decently concerned on Carter.

38:51 ↗

Yeah, I think the floor for Connor on a week-to-week basis has changed. It's much lower now. It's really bad now as opposed to... He was always safe with good upside. Yeah, he's a risky play with good upside. Yeah, that whole team. That whole team is in trouble. Devante Adams. Let's talk about Devante Adams. The wide receiver 48 on the season through three weeks. Gross. That's almost a quarter of the fantasy season. So I think there's a reason he's in the panic room. Okay. And...

39:20 ↗

some stats for him. Only two red zone targets, all right? Two red zone targets on the year. That's the same as Hunter Renfro. What a great stat. I know. I love that. But a lot of what Devante Adams, you guys said it on the show yesterday, what has made, you know, his consistency has been built around touchdowns. Yeah. It's not been built around yardage. Yeah. And then, however, through three weeks on Pro Football Focus, he's graded out as the 11th best wide receiver so far.

39:50 ↗

Aaron Rogers has a great pass rating when targeting him. It's clear that he's his favorite receiver. I'll let you guys go after I do because you share the same rating. I'm a two. I'm a little worry. I don't blame you for that. And the worry is, you know, not that he will rebound, right, to score some touchdowns for Aaron Rogers. It's the expectation. He was drafted by a lot of people to be number one, number one at the position.

40:21 ↗

There's a variable there. It's Matt LaFleur and the offense. They're 3-0. And they're 3-0 with a Devante Adams at wide receiver 48 for fantasy. So do I think he's a wide receiver 48? That's outlandish. He's not that. But do I think he's the one? No, I don't. This offense doesn't have the same level of dependency on the passing game that it's had in years past. And you can see that in the evidence. They're 3-0.

40:48 ↗

but Green Bay is sitting here with an 11% decrease in pass attempts year over year. There were 67% of the time last year, 56% of the time this year. If you take that out and a little bit of the inconsistency in terms of the target share, I think you have to adjust the expectation. So I'm at two. Again, that's not a massive amount of worry. That's totally fine. Now, I might have misheard. So please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm still struggling with this lifelong sickness.

41:17 ↗

But I believe Andy said he's going to let us go first. No. And then immediately. I said I'll let you guys go since you have the same. I meant like you guys can go since you have the exact same number. Gotcha. It's really funny to me. I thought he's like, I'm going to let you go. But listen. I'm a full Kanye West. I'm going to let you finish. But yeah, but first. So I'm not panicked on him. Now, you're right, Andy, in the sense that they're passing the ball less.

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