Fantasy Football - Early Top 15 WR Rankings + Team Draft Hype - Podcast for 4/17

If you're a person who may be put off by the Puka injuries since he had him in college and he had him last year, the non-Pucah from a durability perspective is on MonRoy. He plays basically every game every year. He's been the wide receiver eight, three, and three the last two years. So in that respect, very, very, very safe. And the target totals will be in the 140s. So we're still in the safe category. Now a more interesting name. He actually comes in at six in our consensus. Mike's got him at five, Jason at six. I've got him at eight. We don't know who his quarterback's going to be. Well, it's with certainty. Yeah, because, I mean, you brought him up in the draft, the fact that they could take Shadur Sanders. But it's Malik Neighbors. Neighbors comes in at number six. And, you know, we know the potential. 166 targets on a bad offense, still put up 1,200 yards, still put up seven touchdowns. He was the entire Giants offense as a rookie. So, I mean.

He was first read on 154 of 170 targets, which was, I think he's the third most first read targets in the NFL. Yeah, I mean, he's Jamar Chase. So this is like, to me, if you were to literally trade those two players in the NFL, if you were to trade Malik Neighbors and Jamar Chase and sweep them teams, Malik Neighbors should be the number one wide receiver drafted. And Jamar Chase should be, you know, the number six wide receiver drafted. This is a quarterback. offense problem, not a Malik neighbor's problem. I'm going to buy in completely to what he showed on the field last year. And I hate doing the whole like, well, he should have a quarterback upgrade thing when you go from bad to mediocre because we have enough years of doing this where it's like Russell Wilson is not a fix. Now, if James comes in, if James comes in, I mean, you do have that at least like Russell gets injured and they don't draft should do or then.

James is not a fix either for the team. But he has a really, really nice four-game stretch for Malik Neighbors where he'll be targeted 38 times per game. The Giants were tied or trailing on 90% of the routes for Malik Neighbors. And I don't think that things are going to change drastically for the New York Giants. I think they'll improve, but there's just still a team that's going to be trading. Range of outcomes for Malik Neighbors. How high could he finish? if things went right this year, is it number one? Because I think it is. I would say yes. I would say his range of outcomes to me is one. I think you can finish number one overall. I think he could be number one and then as low as 12 would be, oh, we had a bad year. Yeah, he's a wide receiver one. He could definitely finish as the wide receiver one. I don't think he could finish as the wide receiver one if Russell Wilson is the quarterback the entire way. Nico Collins comes in at seven.

Right now I have them at six, Mike at seven, Jason at eight. And, you know, Nico got off to a smoking hot start last year before the injury. Average 19 fantasy points per game. What was Chase at 20? Yeah. So they were neck and neck. His 17 game pace last year would have put him over 2,000 receiving yards. The injuries derailed it. The... offensive struggles towards the end of the year. The Texas is falling apart, which, I mean, you can have the question was that was Nico still not great? Over the last year, he's had the fourth most 20 plus yard receptions. You're getting big plays from Nico. You're getting long touchdowns. There were, what was it, two weeks in a row when he returned from injury, he had long touchdowns called back on penalty. Oh, yes. You remember that? The screen pass. I remember it.

He was starting for me. I had forgotten, but you were correct. So you got a new offensive coordinator. You're looking for CJ Stroud. That was the first play of the game, Matt? Yeah, first play of the game on his first game back was a screen pass. And he ran it to the house and it didn't count. And you're like, all you wanted him to do is protect his hamstring. And he does a win sprint for no points. But yeah, the injury, it sucked the season. It hurt the team quite a bit. And then they made a change at offensive coordinator. So.

Do I like CJ Stroud? Yeah, I still have confidence in him. Offensive line, we got to get that figured out so that you can target Nico because his average depth of target is in the higher range compared to other whiteouts. Yeah, I mean, that's the issue to me is the offensive line. The Nico we saw after he came back from injury versus the Nico that we saw to start the season on fire. I think the truth is in between those two. I don't believe that, you know, The second half pace, he would have been only on pace for 87 receptions, 1100 yards, eight touchdowns. Those are good numbers, but those aren't like elite wide receiver, you know, top three numbers by any means. The beginning of the year, like you said, Andy, he was averaging 19 fantasy points per game and a lot of the big plays were just hitting. So, I mean, I think we've got him about, I would be very excited to have Nico Collins. I look at him bullishly as an alpha wide receiver one.

as definitely a wide receiver one in fantasy. But I do shave off the very beginning of the season when it was like, oh, is this the new wide receiver one in fantasy football? I don't actually think that that's who Nico is. I do think he's a top three. Like, that's his range of outcomes. I think he could get into the top three. He could score double digits. I mean, he hasn't had a season yet with double digit touchdowns. Probably would have done it last year without the injury. Was on pace to improve his yardage mark from the year before where he was 1,300.

receiving yards 1297 and he was on pace for 1425 so yeah a true alpha target competition will be a bit different this year of they brought christian kirk in who is a good confident slot player but like tank dell after that injury you you can't imagine that he's going to be ready to go in week one so yeah and stephan digs is gone so it's who like who's playing the other outside position for them you know depth chart wise Maybe John Metchie. I think Niko. Maybe Justin Watson, who they just brought in. I mean, I guess his ADP is wide receiver six. So he's not, he's not being discounted at all. No. But I think if we had come into last year with No Diggs Tankdale question marks, we would have looked at Niko and drafted him appropriately. There was doubts about whether he would be the, you know, not from Mike for the record.

Mike was very definitive that there was a tier difference. But let's move on. Number eight, Brian Thomas Jr. We actually all have him ranked very similarly, a little bit ahead of ADP right now. One of the more interesting things when I looked into the season for Brian Thomas Jr. that I wasn't as aware of was how incredibly good he was after the catch. He was the fifth best in the NFL in yards after the catch. When you think of... Yak players, you think of Debo, right? You think of Rashi Rice because he was near the top of the list. Brian Thomas Jr. is right there. And so he was doing so much with the football wherever he caught it around the field, 1,200 yards, 87 receptions, 10 touchdowns. This is a young, ascending player, the face of the franchise on offense alongside Trevor Lawrence. I don't really think that this season can go poorly for him. I don't.

No, you really don't want to overthink this one. This was a guy who in his rookie season came out and was a top five fantasy wide receiver playing for part of it with Mack Jones as a backup quarterback. And you know, you'll hear some. Yeah, that's the thing. You'll hear some people say, well, was that why? Mac Jones just hyper-target him. He was better with Mac Jones than he was with Trevor Lawrence. Now Trevor Lawrence is coming back. But that's, you've got to look deeper and remember the context. This was when he was breaking out in his rookie season towards the end of the season when Krisha Kirk got injured. You know, Evan Ingram missed some games. And it was like, okay, now they were kind of forced to make him the true one. Who does Ingram play for now? Exactly. Who does Krisha Kirk play for? Yeah. Yeah, they're gone permanently. So they have, if you, if you, you know, listen to Liam Cohen talk.

Every, it's it, this is, and you just said it. It's the face of the, like Trevor Lawrence is obviously the quarterback's always going to be the face of the franchise. But in Jacksonville, it is Brian Thomas is our star now. He's his, he's the Jefferson. Yes. For that team. And so he's, his target market share is going to be incredible. And when you have someone with that kind of physical talent, the breakaway yak ability, that young and ascending who's going to have that target market share. There's a reason why we're all three above ADP on Brian Thomas Jr. Because you've got a guy who I don't think he can fail this year, but we certainly have not seen. I don't think we believe we've seen his best football of his career yet. What's wild is, you know, we had the debate on the show about Brian Thomas Jr. Malik Neighbors. Who would you take? If you think about which team you think is going to win more games, I would pick Jacksonville. Fair. So depending on where you have them. Not by much.

Depending on where you have them tiered, I mean, New York 90% of the time was trailing last year. Russell Wilson is not an answer. Their answer may be a couple years away. It's just an interesting thought experiment. Yeah, no. And similar to my complaints about Puka, sometimes not being respected as a one because of his NFL draft capital. I wonder if the exact same careers had happened for both neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. But. You just flop which one got drafted first in the NFL draft? Yep. Would we be seeing them in the opposite? Because it feels... We would be. Yeah, it feels like so. Mike, A.J. Brown has had a fantasy finish of number five in 2022 with Philly. Then he goes to seven. Then last year, 16, he did miss four games. Yeah, he was actually a higher points per game than 23 somehow. And you have him the lowest. He comes in at nine in our consensus. Talk to me about...

Is there AJ Brown fatigue setting in in the fantasy community? There is, I think that we're on the downside of the career, still ranked as a wide receiver one. But I am personally to the point with AJ Brown of like, oh, there's some of the risers, the guy like Drake London. I'd prefer Drake London. I'd rather take the shot on the upside of Drake London hitting than AJ Brown. The way that the offense is morphed, Sequin Barclay is such a humongous deal to A.J. Brown, where, like, I know the, you know, he missed games, but in just terms of what the, the offense is, I don't think we're going to see another, almost 1,500 yard and 11 touchdown season for A.J. Brown when you have Barclay, because that's, it's not what they want to do.

Yeah, no, you can put it this way. Here is a game where last year, AJ Brown had 36 yards, and they won the game with 41 points. There's a game where he had 43 yards, and they won the game. There's a game where he had 36 yards, and they won the game. They don't need him on this offense to go out and put up 90 yards every game to be successful, but he is still an alpha, dominates in one-on-ones, should still finish the season as a wide receiver one. But I do think the ceiling is capped because of the fact that he's not as necessary as pretty much everyone else we talked about. Your floor is not nearly as stable. I mean, you have week nine, he scored 4.6 points. Week 13, he's under 10. Week 14 is at just above six points. Those are not normal things.

for AJ Brown, but there are things that in this range of where we want, like your draft capital, I need greatness. And knowing that AJ Brown's probably going to have four to five of those games this year, you just have a little bit lower. Well, I don't, I don't want to go to break quite yet because I want to put your comments about AJ Brown in context with number 10 on our list, which is Drake London. Mike, you said you'd prefer him. I do. You know, one of these guys has Jalen Hertz. Super Bowl winning quarterback. The other guy has a brand new face, Michael Pinnix. And I know the numbers are really good for Pinnix with Drake London at the very end of the year. You know, he was hyper-targeted. It's also two games, right? It's a two-game sample. I think three. Well, I guess I'm looking at the final two games. He had the most receiving yards in the league. Drake London did with Michael Pinnock's. He had the second most first-read targets. He had.

a 42% target per route run like Drake London was at for Michael Pinnock's. Yes. You also had nine touchdowns last year, 1,200 yards for Drake London. He finished at wide receiver 6. He is very much the opposite of Brian Thomas Jr. when it comes to yards after the catch. That's not his game. He is a down the field 12.7, 13 yards per catch and fall down. Like his yards after the catch was D'Andre Hopkins level last year, 58th in football. So that's not his game. His game is go up and get it, be a competitive catch player. I guess I wonder, you know, with some of the doubts we have around certain quarterback play, how much does that factor in? And it seems like in the Bijon discussion, which looked really good for, you know, the Michael Pinnock's Bijon combination, seems like people are in the same camp here. Like I think the range of outcomes for London is a little bit.

There's a lower, wider variance than other players. Yeah, you can see it go wrong much easier for the Falcons than you can for the Super Bowl champion Eagles who just have, they're just rolling back another great team. You had a very, very small example at the end of the season of what could go well for Michael Pennix. And so, yeah, the range of outcomes when you don't understand, is Michael Pennix a great quarterback? Is he a bad quarterback? Is he an average quarterback? We don't know that yet. But that's also exciting. It's exciting to say, well, what if Michael Pinnock comes out? And, you know, at the end of this season, we look back and say, wow, he's like a top five quarterback because we don't, that could happen this season. He could level up in his first full season, his second year in the NFL. And if that happens because Drake London is, you know, he's not dealing with Devante Smith. He's dealing with Darnel Mooney as the wide receiver two. You know, Drake London could really have an outstanding season.

But also the Falcons could collapse. So it's just how do you want to play? Yeah, Pinnix, confidence. Yeah. Got to be confident. You need to be confident in the 50 something percent completion percentage. They say confidence is very important. 58%. And so in his three starts, you would, uh, The average, well, okay, it was still 58. I think he beat the Giants and then lost back to that games to finish the year. That is correct. There's just a little doubt there in the offense being successful. 34 points, 24 points against Washington, then 38. That's just, yes, the end of the year, man. I don't know. I don't know. I'd love it to be true. Let's make it true. It's better for Bejan. It's better for London. It's better for fantasy players. It's better for Mooney, who's probably.

A sneaky player this year, to be honest. All right, we'll take a break. We'll cover the last five names. Well, Tyreek Hill. Yeah. Weird. Weird discussion. Tyreek. Not a good year for Tyree kill. Yet he's being drafted at wide receiver 11. That's where we have him. I got him at 12. Jason at 15. And I very much respect it. He had the most. nearly the most drops in the NFL last year, maybe because of the stat numbers that Jason was putting up. He did have a wrist injury all year too. Yes, yes. That's what you have to lean on to make the bull case for Tyree Kiel. Now, I mean, nobody is more explosive. Nobody has a higher percentage of 20 plus yard plays. Nobody is going to, you know, being drafted almost outside the top 12 wide receivers. It's hard to find anybody that you could say, oh, yeah, we should have seen.

that wide receiver three season coming. Like that's not, all that stuff is possible with Tyreek Hill. But last year was rough. I mean, Jason pointed out on Twitter, he tweeted about this a week ago. He had 906 snaps for 959 yards last year. In 2023, 695 snaps turned into almost 1,800 yards. That doesn't make sense. It doesn't make any sense. 211 more snaps, 840 fewer yards. The offense changed. Johnny Smith had a roll, the short area targets, and then the injury, which seems like it was real. Oh, yes. And yet really seems like it shouldn't have affected the amount of targets he was receiving. Yeah. I mean, the offense morphed. You didn't see as much downfield anything. And downfield Tyree Kill is a pretty important, you know, superpower of his. And they just weren't pushing the ball down there.

So there's worries. You know, you can excuse some of this. Oh, it's the wrist. I don't give a lot of credence to that. You know, he played 17 games. Okay, maybe he was a little banged up, but a lot of NFL players are banged up while they're playing games. I give much more credence to the fact that, well, you lost Tyreek Hill for a portion of that. And so, you know, the total passing volume would shrink a little bit. Johnny Smith coming, you know, to get more involved. But. You know, when you look at a player who's going to be overdrafted, Tyreek Hill still has the promise of being the number one wide receiver. I mean, you're just two years removed from it. Yeah. Yeah. It's like, oh, if he had a down year this last year and that's all it was because Tyreek got injured and we just go back to what it was the year before last. I mean, you're getting a steal. When you're drafting him as the wide receiver 11, you get him in the second round. That's fine. But.

I just want to make sure when you're doing that that you realize he played the whole freaking season last year and sucked. He scored 10 fantasy points a game. Like he wasn't, he was. He was actively harmful for your team. In the entire season. And that's the most recent thing we have to go off of. When he had the slow start, a lot of people, myself included, acquired him cheaply because there wasn't a, you're like waiting for Tua to come back and fix it all. Because that was the case, right? Yes, it was. The argument was. Tyreeks not having the career year again, but it's because Tua's not there. So I'm going to get him before Tua comes back, count on Tua playing. That's what I did. It never came. It never arrived. It was like, and then he was just in my lineup going, this week then, this week then. So it didn't happen. No. Let me ask you guys a question. Who had more yards or I'm sorry, more points per game last year? I wonder. Tyreek Hill or Adam Thielen?

Per game? Per game. That's Thielen then. It sure is. Yeah. How many games was Thielen? Uh, feeling played 10 games. I don't remember. He played 10 games. My point is on a points per game, like his season total looks not as bad as it was because he played the whole season. He played 17 games. And so he's he accumulated stats, but on a per game basis, he wasn't, he was the wide receiver 35, 35 in points per game. basically tied with Josh Downs and Josh Downs had a very successful season but this will tell the whole truth Jason we have our consistent consistency metric it's a D for dreadful don't like 29.4% of the time above 10 and a half points yeah it was it was bad so could he bounce back sure am I going to bet I mean it's very very very rare

that towards the end of someone's career. He will be playing at the age of 31. Exactly. At the age of post 30, that you have a down year and that's considered a down year because you come back. Right. No, it's not common. So I'm out. Number 12, JSN, Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. Jason at 10, Mike at 16. I'm at 14 in between. And what are your, what's the holistic thoughts on JSN? Because you've got a new quarterback. Yep. Got a new head coach. Yep. Got a new pecking order. Sorry, new offensive coordinator. Yeah, yeah. Because Ryan Grub fired. D.K. McCaff is gone. Tyler Lockett is gone. Cooper Cup. Welcome to town. A lot of talk about. I mean, Mike is confident Kenneth Walker. Maybe the running game gets going. But JSN was, he was just outstanding last year. He was the wide receiver 10 in fantasy points last season.

and he was so much better over the second half. You know, J.S.N. was a little disappointing his rookie year, but he's disappointing. A lot of it. Sure. He was a lot of bit disappointing his rookie year only because he was supposed. It was very Marvin Harrison Jr. I talk about it all the time. Marvin Harrison Jr. did not have a bad rookie season. Marvin Harrison Jr. had a terrible compared to expectations rookie season, but he was good. J.S.N. had the same thing, and the reason is because the, I don't agree with that. You don't agree with which part of that? 630 yards and four touchdowns. I think that's what he's feeling. Yeah, I'm just feeling like I watched the games and this was not an important player. Sure. I mean, you're saying in his rookie year. Correct. Yeah, yeah, yeah. His rookie year was a, was a massive disappointment. But he still was, you know, 600 yards in his rookie season. It's not like, oh, this career is done.

Last year, he became the guy. And he became the guy with D.K. Metcalfe on the team. And he became the guy with an older Tyler Lockett on the team. Finishes the wide receiver 10. It all got better as the season went on. And then they got rid of Gino Smith. Yes. Yes. They got rid of Gino Smith. And obviously. Jason should be good. Yeah. I mean, I believe J.S.N. will have a target volume that is, you know, 150 plus targets pretty much guaranteed. I hope. They use them properly. There was a lot of excitement around Grubb last year, and it didn't work out for the team. He was a first down machine. He had the six most first down receptions in the NFL. He just found a way to get open, and they found him. I think the question is, how talented do you think he is? Like, just the wide receiver, put him anywhere else. What do you think of? I don't think that JSN is, I mean, when you look at just NFL talent, a wide receiver, I don't think he's the top 10 guy.

So I think that's the important distinction. Yeah, I do not think so. No. I think he is more, I mean, I don't want to insult the guy, but like Deonti Johnson had some great fantasy years. He's closer to that than Jamar Chase for me. Okay. That's fine. My biggest concern for, I mean, the shifting of the offense, which projects to be run heavier than it was this past year. And the fact that. Like is Sam Darnold, like is what we saw last year more of a product of the Minnesota Vikings and the Kevin O'Connell offense? Or did Sam Darnold really figure something out? It's probably the Kevin O'Connor. And I lean on the side of it being Kevin O'Connell, up with giving Darnold credit for getting better than he was before that year. But if you go back and watch Gino, who, again, I think Gino is a very good quarterback, watch a lot of what happens.

with that offensive line last year for Gino. The pocket is crumbling around him. And Gino is, the test. Gino is managing to dance, not freak out. And he's, then he's finding the guys. Jason can get open. That's Donald's strength. That's Donald loves. Which goes into my larger point is we saw the, the end of the Minnesota Viking season last year when everything just crumbled into pieces. It was Sam Darnold got freaked out. and didn't know what to do. Where Gino, I think, was making magical things happen last year under the circumstances. I think that's the best anti-JSN argument possible. Is the offensive line...

going to ruin Sam Darnold because there are certain quarterbacks. Like I would throw Jared Gossi. See ghosts? Yeah. Yeah, I would say you'll be seeing ghosts and ghouls. There are-goblins. Are certain quarterbacks where when things go right, they're really, really, really good. Jared Gough is an awesome quarterback behind an awesome offensive line. When things go wrong and pressure is there, he's not making plays on his own and doing those things. And so, yeah, I think that's a very valid anti-JSN's fantasy value. take to have it's it's an anti jason like ceiling dominator yeah like 16 that's not a bad ranking i'm gonna i'm gonna commit i'm gonna go rewatch jason's second half of the year and see how much was him how much was gino because the what my view of him as a talent i think is just very high i think you know sure he coming into the draft yeah obviously he was the first NFL wide receiver taken in his draft class

So if he is that talented, I think he'll overcome. 13 is T. Higgins. So makes our top 15. He was outstanding. Guys, this is, this is the stupidest thing. What is? We cannot all be in on T. Higgins. I mean, it is going to go so terrible. Well, look, I think we're all. This is the, this is the boo ghost from Mario. We're all looking. We're all very comfortable with T. Higgins because his situation is very comfortable. And he's played enough football. I mean, he averages a touchdown every 7.7 receptions. It's a beast. That is like fifth best in football. You know you're going to get scores with T. Higgins. You know how comfortable Joe Burrow is with it. He's not going to be the number one target. Jamar Chase will be better than him. But it's not drastic. No. And Chase helps Higgins so.