Fantasy Football 2018 - Regress or Impress? LIVE Tour Announce!

28% of his carries came in those final two games. He launched from, he was getting about 13 carries a game when he took over in those final two games 24 and 26. You can't give Dionne Lewis 24 carries or 26 carries a game. My question is, what will the split be in Tennessee between Dionne Lewis and Derek Henry? Because I do not think that Dionne Lewis is going to get 13 carries a week unless he...

Unless you believe he can beat out Derek Henry for the starter job, I see that in the realm of possibilities. I'm not going to project that. But how many touches a week can Deon Lewis actually get if he's not getting those 13 carries? You're hoping for Deon Lewis essentially to give you Alvin Camara type of efficiency based off of, depending, I should say, on his draft price. For me, he's a running back two, a back in RB2.

I still like him more than Henry in half-point leagues because of his flexibility. He's not going to be game-scripted out the way I think Derek Henry can do. That's fair. If that team is being blown out, you're not going to see a lot of Derek Henry on the field. You're going to see Dionne Lewis in the two-minute drill. You're going to see Dionne Lewis when the team is trailing. And so I think that gives him a higher baseline. But you're right. He's not going to get – I would not expect him to get more than, what, eight or nine touches on the ground? I would put him at seven, eight carries a game at the most. Oh, I've –

Yeah, I have him a little bit higher than that. I've got him closer to the 13 carries. I've got him with 175 total carries on the season. And Derek Henry, just a shade above that. I mean, as far as the market share, I was reading a lot of the beat reporters from Tennessee that are saying, hey, don't be so quick to think that the starter is Derek Henry. The starter here could be Dionne Lewis. All right. You know, I've got, I have Henry.

with a 45% market share versus Lewis with a 43% market share. So I've got them consuming. Yeah, I'm more 55, 45. Yeah, consuming most of those carries out of the backfield. But again, Dionne Lewis will be involved in the passing game. All that said, what you bring up at the beginning, Mike, is the most real. In the ultimate draft kit, we have our risk ratings. Dionne Lewis has one of my highest risk rating because for him to be great, he needs that kind of work, which I think they're going to try to give him. But then he has to stay healthy with that kind of work.

Everything from history says probably not going to happen. So I don't think he's going to impress to the tune of being higher this year than last year's running back 14. I've got him with a lot of usage and he's still only the running back 21, but he's also one of the most injury prone guys this year if they're going to give him the workload that they're talking about. So all things considered, will I draft the on Lewis? Yes.

Because his value right now where I've seen him, I think he's going to get off to a hot start. I just don't want to be holding the potato when it gets too hot. It's like hot potato and he gets injured and he's on my roster. Where is the heat coming from? It's the game of hot potato. You got to, you know, you ship around. But the potato starts hot in hot potato. It doesn't just.

You're not, you're like the human torch. The heat comes from how good he's going to be when he's healthy. Oh, okay. He's going to be, he's going to be on fire. There's a fire in the potato that eventually gets too hot to handle. Kinetic injury. It's just, it's just vibrating. I don't want to be left. He doesn't want to be holding the potato, Mike. I don't want to be left with the bill. Most of the time. It is ironic because you normally want the potatoes. I mean, you're, oh, I'm a big potato fan. Especially if it's a sweet potato. No, you get out of here with Brooks.

Brooks, you get out of here with that garbage tape. Brooks jumping in on the sweet potato takes. I mean, there's great analogies, great fantasy discussion. Everything is good. And then he brings up sweet sweet potatoes. We're going to start ordering sweet potatoes so I can put them directly. One of the more interesting facts about these two guys is that both Lewis and Henry led the league in basically yards after initial contact last year. That was one of the more surprising things about a guy like Lewis who a lot of people would consider to be undersized, maybe not a type of player that.

He's a scatback. He's not between the tackles guy, but he could break tackles last year. He is shifting. And he is elusive. Yeah, the elusive rating of Dionne Lewis is up there. It's really funny to look at the history and see. And I love the dude. The percentage of carries that Dionne Lewis has received in his career are far more on first and second down. And the percentage of carries that Derek Henry has had in his career is far more in third down. And yet everyone's like...

Henry's the first and second down back. And so, you know, you'll have to see. But it's really the injury thing that scares me the most with Lewis. I think we're going to have a lot of debates on Tennessee's offense in general. You've got a new offensive, you know, mine coming in and head coach. Love Mario to pieces. And not enough to give Corey Davis love, though, Jason. You don't love him enough to give him love. I like doubled what he did his rookie years. Oh, that's not love. That's the point. Doubling that is still not very good. All right. Let's talk regress or impress.

Alex Collins burst onto the scene last year. A throwaway from Pete Carroll and those Seahawks. Pete Carroll likes throwing good running backs away. Well, it's a specialty. Is this, is that a Kristen Michael take? Come on. All right. Alex Collins, consistency rank at 26 last year. Almost 1,000 yards on the ground on 212 carries, six touchdowns.

was a big play type of running back for Baltimore. I think we all waited for the shoe to drop on Alex Collins for week after week after week. It was like, okay, nice game. What's next? Who's next? Who's going to step into that role? And it just kept being Alex Collins. And then the draft came and went. That's where things were huge. It still keeps being Alex Collins. He was, what, a restricted?

Free agent? Exclusive rights. So he's still getting paid nothing. Mm-hmm. So what do we think? Regress or impressed? He was RB 10 in points per game weeks 10 through 17. That's a top 12 running back. He's going to have a great year because I think he's going to get the ball and he proved last year that he was a really quality back. His issue was fumbling if he could get that under control, which it looked like he did last season. Then...

You know, I really, really like him. I worry about the offense in total for Baltimore whether or not they're going to produce any kind of prolific running back. But for where you're going to draft Alex Collins, I really believe in him. And while I say I don't look at strength of schedule, I don't let it factor in that much. And I really don't for most players. When you look at last year, Alex Collins beat up on the weaker matchups. He was, he really did what you would expect the guy to do against the weaker matchups and exploit them.

And this coming year, they're going from what was the 25th worst strength of schedule against the rush to a top 10. So I think that's going to benefit Alex Collins. And I, you know, look, if you go through that whole draft and you're Baltimore and you could spend two of your first three picks on tight ends and not address a running back, that gives me the confidence I need in Alex Collins. It could be indicative of their opinion of.

Kenneth Dixon because all offseason I've had the view that look they're not done with Kenneth Dixon even though Kenneth Dixon did his best to make that happen in Baltimore I will say to your strength the schedule point I think it's powerful to look backwards right and say Alex Collins was the RB 18 against great I mean the compilation of last year he was facing difficult rushing defense

It's true. So that's more indicative. Look, look, the turnover is going to happen this year. So I'm not looking forward as much as I am looking back. And what you're saying is he beat up on bad defenses. The likelihood of him having an easier schedule against the rush is there. Right. Therefore, your confidence is there. I haven't, uh, I'm 18. That's exactly where he finished last year. So I guess I'm, I'm, I'm right. I'm in neutral on Alex Collins. Yeah, I've got him right there too. So I guess it's not, but that would, wouldn't that still impress you?

That would impress me. It would impress me if Alex Collins had another good year. Yes. Yeah. Continue to impress. Yeah. That's fair. Yeah. That's like when I play foosball with Brooks. And, you know, he, like, if he does a couple games of mediocre offensive scoring in foosball, that impresses me. Oh, because he is. What you get for that? Sweet potato take. You just ruined my joke, man. I was going, his football play is similar to that of a sweet potato. Oh. Really bad. Soggy?

Yeah, oh, just mush. Just flaccid. Healthy? Healthy for you? Nothing there. Nothing there. So Mike, Alex Collins, what do you think? Regress are impressed for you? I have him right around that 18 mark. So for the game, I have to say a slight regression. Kenneth Dixon is so intriguing of what he has been able to do on a rookie contract. I should say, get away with the massive injury. That's not his fault.

These guys are on a short leash, especially when they're taking in the later rounds. Then the suspension. I mean, everything surrounding Dixon has been bad news that we've seen players just sent to the parking lot for far, not nearly as strong of creating situations for your team. But here he is. Danny Woodhead has retired.

I'm still taking Alex Collins in the draft like he is the starter. I believe in him, but Kenneth Dixon could make this a situation by about the halfway mark for fantasy football. And just to piggyback on that, follow the money. We say it all the time. Alex Collins cost them $630,000 this year, which is the exact same amount of money that Kenneth Dixon cost him, except for Kenneth Dixon's under contract for $730,000 next year.

There is no monetary reason for them to be loyal to Alex Collins. It doesn't mean they won't be, but there's more risk there. If they had just signed Alex Collins to a three-year extension, something of that nature, it might have been more challenging for them to hand off the backfield. So I think there is risk there with Collins, but I think we all expect them to be pretty productive. Yes. All right, wide receiver regress or impress. I just posted about him on Instagram. We were talking about him at lunch. Marvin Jones.

Marvin Jones was the ninth best fantasy wide out last year. That was by far his best finish. He was great. 1,100 yards, nine touchdowns. What do you think about Marvin Jones? Step up against top 16 passing defenses. Outperformed Golden Tate. And Marvin Jones, I was talking about it. You said Jason. We're talking at lunch. It's difficult.

because there is an outlier that happened this past season for him. You can look back at his past three years, and this includes a different team, but I'm still putting it here. 103 targets, 103 targets, 107. 65 receptions. 55, oh, 55 receptions. 61 receptions. I mean, everything in there is looking about the same, but he went from 12.6 yards per catch.

16.9 to 18, which led the league last year and also jumped from 4 to 9 touchdowns. If he put up the exact same stats last year but only had the same four touchdowns, he's wide receiver 20. So Marvin Jones, this is a, for me, this is a touchdown or bust type of situation. It's what are you buying into? You think he can keep that going with near double digit touchdowns?

Andy, I assume you are, you have him leaning on that side of the touchdown spectrum. To me, he's a player that is not for every fantasy roster. He's Vincent Jackson. He's identical to what Vincent Jackson was. That's a very good con. Vincent Jackson was 60 to 65 receptions, 1,100 yards, 6 to 9 touchdowns. I don't want two of these type of guy. Like, I don't want, it's ironic because this is the exact pair I currently have in my dynasty team. But I don't want Josh Gordon and.

Marvin Jones on my roster. Do you still have Alshan? Not on that. Oh, he's another good example. He's the same player. But I think he's a great wide receiver two for a team that has a PPR-orientated one. That's the way I look at Marvin Jones. I don't see anything about that. I mean, that defense is not good. Matt Stafford is good for 4,000 yards and plus every year. And Marvin Jones was one of his most reliable weapons, especially when you talk about...

taking a shot down the field and the red zones. So if you look at what's there, other than natural fluctuation of touch-ins, which I agree, it can go down. I don't think any of the other stuff's going down. I don't think you're going to see a reduction in receptions. I think you're going to see much of reduction in any yards per reception. I think the targets are all going to be the same. I think some people think Gallaudet is going to get in the way. That I don't tend to...

lean that direction. So I still have him at 18. So I have them as a regression candidate because of the touchdown variance and because I like other guys more, not because I don't like Marvin Jones. Yeah, I like Marvin Jones quite a bit, but I do think he will regress from where he finished last year based on the touchdowns. If you look over the last couple years, right, so two years ago he had 15 red zone targets. Last year he had 14, but you're going from, you know, four touchdowns to nine touchdowns. Right. Now you lose Eric Ebron, which, you know, I think actually will end up helping.