Top 10 TE Ranks, Sleeper Picks, MEGALABOWL OPENS!

If you remember last season, there was the big three and then garbage, right? It was, it was, do you want, Gronk, Kelsey, and Ertz? And then it was a tear break off of a cliff, you know, the same one that you're running down the river and there's a waterfall at the end. It's that cliff. That's what it was last year. And you saw that. That came true. This year, I would say, do you guys agree that there's kind of a secondary? There's a big three.

But then there's that little middle tier sliver of a couple of guys that I think are more interesting than they were last year. And then the cliff. Then the cliff of the. I hope you're right about that. I hope we're right about that. I hope there is that secondary tier and it's not a mirage. That's what I hope. Well, the nice thing about that middle tier this year, it's not the, you're not trying to get the value from the older guys, which you still can, but it's tough to give up a middle round pick, you know.

Jimmy Graham, Greg Olson. These are older guys for the NFL. They aren't the up and coming tight ends. And this year, those guys going in the middle, those are the up and coming tight ends of O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, and Hunter Henry, all young guys who still have room to grow. I think that I am taking the tight end approach. If I don't get the five, any of the five at the right draft price. So who is your six that is left out?

I'm guessing Hunter Henry is the one that's left out. Ingram and Howard are in that category and then the top three. But, you know, Scott Barrett tweeted about this. I heard it on a podcast a couple weeks ago. The Titans scoring specifically the middle Titan 6 through 12.

It is disintegrator over the last couple of years. It's the lowest that the tight end six through 12 has scored in the last 10 years. It's not a place where you're finding value. Well, the NFL is changing. The tight end used to be the safety blanket. If no one was open, I knew that the tight end was there and I could check it down to him. Now they check it down to the running back. So if you look at running back receptions. Shout out to Dennis Pitta, famous checkdown master. As the running back receptions go up, you can see the tight end receptions going down.

So there's only one ball. Jason, you have that same five kind of view? I have the exact same five. While I do like Hunter Henry and even Vance McDonald a little bit, you know, there are two guys that I'm not sure how much more I like them than some of the just I can take with my last round pick guys. We'll talk about that at the end of the show. Some of those super late guys that I'd be okay, leaving the draft with. And I would, I think if I don't get one of those top five, I'm leaving with one of the guys we'd talk about at the end of the show.

All right, Travis Kelsey is the number one tight end in football the last three years. He's one, two, one. He's guaranteed production at the position. He has the MVP throwing him the football. He's got one of the best offenses in football. He had 150 targets last year, 1,300 plus yards and 10 touchdowns. He broke the NFL record for yardage at the tight end position for about an hour. And then George Kittle's like, I'll take that. But you're pretty good anyways.

So last year, we only had one game that qualified as a bust. And that was week one when people were like, oh, no. Patrick Mahomes. He's no Alex Smith. Not that he's not an Alex, or that he's not better than Alex Smith, but we had no clue what Patrick Mahomes' tendencies would be. With the tight-in. Yeah, I mean, I raised my hand as guilty. Like, that rattled my nerves.

Yeah, it did. And then he rattled off the rest of the entire season, which is unbelievable. So we don't need to say much about Kelsey. Other than he's very firmly the number one tight end. But are you willing to pay that second round pick to take a tight end who it's a onesie position? Yes, you should theoretically be dominant at that. But also last year, theoretically you should have been dominant taking Rob Grunkowski.

in the second round as well. It just feels different than that, though. He's played 16, 15, 16 games last three years. Actually, the two years before he played 16 as well, I haven't taken him. Okay. I don't know why. I probably should. Jason, do you, have you taken him in many of your mocks in the second round? Yeah, I mean, I think he's a worthy pick there. The reality is onesie positions we usually try to avoid, go late.

stack running backs and wide receivers but there's just such a huge gap between the depth that you have a quarterback where it's like i you know there's 22 quarterbacks i actually like there are three tight ends that i actually like and then there's two that i'm like maybe and that's it i don't want to you know if i can get value on one of the top three i'm going to take them yeah i think it makes sense

Especially if those middling finishes. You know, Titan 6 through 12, that's the guys that finished in that spot. And they still have the lowest scoring than they've had over the last 10 years. So there's a big point gap. We bring up the fact that, you know, Trey Burton finished as the Titan 7 last year, which is like, oh, yay, but that was terrible. I mean, Trey Burton was trash. Yeah, because he was 13 in actual points per game. He just happened to be there. Right. Zach Ertz is our consensus two.

I'm very tempted to flip-flop him and George Kittle. Right now, Ertz is two, Kittles three. I'm probably going to change that very soon. But this is the way the stats broke out right now. But last year was such an outlier season for Zach Ertz, which you say, wait, he's a really good player. Of course he is. He's an amazing player. He still, we were just talking about Alston Jeffrey 900 yards. Jeffrey was hurt. Deshaun Jackson wasn't there.

There are reasons to believe that the 156 targets for Zach Ertz are not going to approach that total. Mike Wallace, who was brought in to be the deep threat for the team last year, missed essentially the entire season. And Zacherts is great, but will he return value on the pick? Will he be that much of a difference maker like we believe Travis Kelsey will be? You look at Zachert's game look.

Once, I mean, at the beginning of the season, it was double-digit targets in all but two games through week nine. He was, he was just an absolute vacuum for targets. After that, they make a trade. They bring Golden Tate in. And Golden Tate is there for seven games. And in that time, Zach Kurtz went double-digit targets only twice. He was on a pace of eight targets a game, which is still outstanding for a tight end.

but he only scored three times in that time period as well. Is that production enough to make you spend? Where is he going? Is he a fourth round pick right now or is your third round? I don't have, let me see. The 809. Yeah, 309. I've just, I'm not spending it. I'm not paying it. And I will. And I will pay that because, you know, you talk about that. But will you pay it for 74 receptions for 824 yards?

And eight touchdowns? If he gets 128 targets, which would be what you said, if he was getting eight targets a game, the fewer targets. And that's about where I've got him. I think he will return value in the sense that I don't have to play the game. You know, it's like, it will return value to you as a fantasy owner. Right. To remove that variable. Exactly. From your life. Because the issue is I think. Because sometimes that hurts. Oh. Boom. Boom. I think that I am. Dad gun.

Good enough at finding wide receivers and running backs in the middle rounds that are going to outperform their situation. I'm better at that than I am finding a tight in in round eight or nine or seven that's going to outperform it. So yes, you do lose something taking that tight in. You do. And I don't think Zach Ertz has as good a season as he had last year. In fact, he's my number three. I do have kiddle.

higher than Zach Ertz this year in half point PPR leagues. There should be a target regression coming for him, but target regression down to the 120s is still going to be a very known commodity at a position that is so difficult to succeed with on a week-to-week basis. I think that's a pretty compelling angle for Zacherts there, because the price, it's 309. It's not...

It's really not reflective of people expecting 116 receptions in 1163 and 8, is it? I would imagine if you were expecting that he'd go higher. He'd be in the Kelsey draft range. It's compelling to say, hey, sure, I can play roulette. I can go for a late round guy, but I don't want to. Isn't that part of fantasy?

Yeah, it absolutely is. What you want to deal with on a weekly basis? But also part of that is your opportunity cost of paying that price for George, or for, for, for Ertz or Kittle, because they're going back to back. And those guys that you could miss in that, in the time that it's actually your pick once the turn has come around, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Stefan Diggs, Chris Carson, Julian Edelman. I mean, now I know why I didn't draft Zach Ertz and any of my mock drafts. Exactly. It's, it's.

It all comes down to the opportunity cost. But if you want to play like Jason and be a little baby about your tight end, then that's what you're going to do. You're going to take one of the top three. He wants the easy route with the tight end position. He was set it and forget it. Yeah, you know, I want to have. Just get Goddard too and flex Goddard out. I want to have my.

you know, fantasy roster at every position be an advantage over the opponent. When it comes to quarterbacks, I'm confident that I can have an advantage over my opponent streaming, meaning playing a guy off of waivers based on the matchup. Over the last couple seasons, it has...

not been as easy to stream the tight-in position to actually look at the matchup and go, this team's bad against tight-in, I'm going to roll with this guy, and sometimes it works, but a lot of times it doesn't. I just believe in our ability at running back in wide receiver to patch that hole easier than patching the hole of tight-in. Yeah, and you're right, Mike, once Tate was there filling that role, the target share went significantly down for Zackertz over that period of time.

Dallas Goddard's banged up right now, should be back for the regular season. It'll be interesting to see how your thoughts on Goddard, Jason, congeal with your hope for Ertz because you will be. Remember I told you, I can see the future? Yes. Sometimes whenever it goes my way, those are the times. There will be plenty of plays where Zach Ertz owners jump out of their couch, put their fists in the air and go, yeah! Oh, no, that's Goddard.

Catching that touch. Now, what were they doing inside of their couch? That's the real question. If they're going to jump out of the couch. You don't sit inside your couch? I sit on my couch. Mike and I both sit in our couches. Have I been doing it wrong? Dummy. All right, George Kittle. You called him a little baby. And then we ganged up on him like we sit in our couches when he pointed out my stupid comment.

Oh, man. You're, you're, um, we did praise your medical advice though today. Oh, it's super good. Number three, George Kittle. Last year, 1337 yards and five touchdowns. George Kittle was exhilarating to own on my fantasy team. Part because I got him off of waiver wire. This year you got to pay the three. Pay the iron price. They are back to back. If you want.

Kittle, if you want Ertz, they're both at the very back of the third, and they're back to back in picks. So you just, you're taking either the leftover, which right now would be Kittle in average, or you're choosing to take Kittle over Ertz. I don't think you can stop what George Kittle does best in the NFL. I don't believe you can't. I don't believe that teams are going to approach. It's not like they weren't trying to stop them last year, but I don't think you get to go into this year and say, this year.

No big place to George Kittle. You don't have the available people to cover a player that can do what he did, 20 receptions of 20 plus yards. That is the most among tight ends. It was tied with Robert Woods for eighth most among all past catchers.

He is too valuable of a weapon on a team that needs weapons. He is a physical dominant freak. We're talking a 90th percentile Spark athlete, 250 pounds, runs a two, a four, a two, five, two, baby. A two, two, 20. He's a Tesla. Yeah, I mean, look, there were a lot of things that happened. There were a lot of things that happened last year to allow him to break. Sorry, sorry, we must break in here.