Fantasy Football 2017 - Top 10 Quarterbacks + ADP Predictions

will finish as a top three quarterback. While he's done that, take the last two years of sample size. The last two years, here's some quarterbacks who have a higher percentage of their games finishing as a quarterback one. You have Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Ben Rothesberger, Dak Prescott, and then the big three that we already mentioned on the show. And how long is that? That's over the last two years.

So over the last two years, it's cheating throwing DAC in. He's only played a year. Well, sure, but I mean, his percentage was great. So take Dak out. The point is, really the three guys that matter to me are Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, and Tyrod Taylor. Those are guys you're getting in the double-digit rounds, and they have just as high a percentage chance of finishing as a quarterback one. But not top five. Yeah, their upside is certainly, when they hit, they're not hitting like Drew Brees. Drew Brees is going to go out there and throw you the five touchdown 400-yard game.

he'll win you a week. That's why I'm just saying if you do take Drew Breeze, I feel like you need to invest in a second quarterback. That's a bold statement. Yeah, I don't want to. I can say this from last year. Last year I had Drew Breeze and about half the games, I didn't want to play him. And if I didn't, I would have helped my team. All right. We'll move on. Oh, no. Oh, what's happening? Dear diary, I can't convince my friend Jason to love Mount Ryan.

I don't feel like this is not sad, though. Matt Ryan is number five in our ranks. He has Julio and Gabriel and Freeman and Coleman and Hooper and Sanoo. He completed more 40-plus-yard plays than anybody in the league. He had more 20-plus-yard plays than anybody in the league. He had more yards per attempt than anybody in the league. Some people are stupid, Andy. But he won't accept him. He won't accept him into the elite. And I don't know what to do.

He calls it an outlier. I'll talk to you tomorrow. That was a big entry into the diary. That was a few pages. All right, Jay. Sing it to us. 5,000 yards, 38 touchdown, 7 picks. I think we know the tale, but he's going in the sixth round in PPR least.

Yeah, I mean, I would never draft Matt Ryan in the sixth round of a PPR league because I don't see him as a true. I don't like points. I don't see him as a truly elite fantasy quarterback. I mean, everything you just named of all the incredible statistics, you can, you know, you can paint that either direction. You've said so many times, Andy, on other players, you don't like when a guy sets career highs pretty much across the board and has their highest touchdowns and their highest yards and, you know, pretty much their best season.

of, you know, their entire career, especially when it's deep into the career, you know, when this isn't like, oh, maybe he took that third year leap forward. Brooks, do I say that? Have I said that before? It's just the implication that they will not do that again. Brooks is shaking his head, no. He said I never said that before. Okay. Well, you have certainly said it before. Mike, has he, as Andy talked about, he doesn't like when a guy I don't know verbate him, but I know what you mean because when you set a career high.

The next year, you get drafted with certain expectations. But is he being drafted like that? Like, if the sixth round is not being drafted that way, it would be the third round with Tom Brady. With a quarterback. Because he finished two. With the quarterback. Andrew Luck is seventh round right now. Andrew, oh, come on. You can't use Andrew Luck as the example. Andrew Luck is seventh round. He's hurt. That's why he was a fifth round guy. Andrew Luck was a fifth round guy. And that's my point. Matt Ryan's a six round guy.

That's the value. You prove my point. Andy Dalton is a 14th round guy. We're not arguing the late round guys yet, but I just don't. None of the arguments make sense. Here's an argument that makes sense. Let me get this out. Quarterbacks, you see it every year, well, nearly every year. Whoever was last year's number one quarterback, they are drafted as the first quarterback off the board the following year. Yes. That happens with Rogers. That happened with Cam Newton. Brady. When, like, when guys do that.

They skyrocket in next year's draft. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has that has the pessimism already baked into his ADP because he's not. I'm surprised. He will not be the first quarterback. No. Just that just. He's being drafted behind. Go go back to your belittling of elite Matt Ryan. Sure. It's all about the touchdowns for me. All about the touchdowns. He had too many.

Yes, his per, yes, he did. His per 16-game pace over his entire career was 26 touchdowns. He threw 38 touchdowns last year. Let me read you some of the names of guys that caught touchdowns, okay? You had DJ Telavia.

Joshua Perkins. Patrick DeMarco, Levine Toy Lolo, Aldrich Robinson. These are guys now who caught two each. You had Justin Hardy with four touchdowns, Taylor, Gabriel, six. I'm just saying he sounds like a benevolent quarterback. Oh, I know. Very benevolent. Where was he for the previous, you know, decade of his career? I got a hot staff. Because did he not have a bunch of those? Since 2016, he's averaged 38 touchdowns per game. You can have them.

You can have him. And if you think that he's going to, if he's going to throw 38 touchdowns again, I'm just having fun. Look, I will draft him in trade. Look, here's something I actually have said, no words to put in my mouth. Look, I've told Jason, last time we debated Matt Ryan, like when you come right down to it, asking him to repeat, it's pretty much going to be impossible. Asking him to have a very, very good year at a sixth round ADP, I don't think is unreasonable. I'm surprised he's not being drafted with all this hype baked into him.

I don't know. What happens, let me ask you this. What happens if they hold on and win the Super Bowl? Is that enough of a difference in people's mind? The Super Bowl champion number two fantasy quarterback coming into this year, I wonder if he goes up two rounds. He probably would. But now he's a loser. We're fickle people, Andy. We are. All right. Russell Wilson, number six. I have him at six. Jason, you got him at four, Mike, at eight. I see all the beautiful things about Russell Wilson, the most beautiful.

Ever since he came into the league, he finished 10, 8, 3, 3, 11. You've got a top 12 quarterback in Russell Wilson. You've got him in the seventh round. You've taken Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck right now. Ooh, probably luck. Yeah, I think I'm still on the luck side, but it's certainly close. I've been a big Russell Wilson supporter forever. It's a matter of their average draft position, really. I mean, I think both those guys are elite.

get the job done guys, both of them finish ahead of Matt Ryan this year. And so whichever one is later, that's the one I would snag. 41 sacks last year, second most in the league. Still managed the fourth most rushing attempts despite the injury to the ankles, but those increased in the second half of the year. Have they done enough to improve his odds of success behind that offensive line? Because if he's happened to move the way he had to move last year, propensity to get hurt,

having a hard time, you know, having to absorb a lot of sacks, which means some turnovers. Have they done anything that gives you a reason to believe that that's changed? No. Not on the offensive line. But, I mean, he's pretty used to that so far. It hasn't stopped him from finishing as a top 12 quarterback. Now, last year it was, the beginning of the year was rough. Man, if you had invested high in Russell Wilson, and that's, that's another problem with.

The thing about investing high in these quarterbacks is last year Russell Wilson was probably, if I'm recalling, like a fourth round pick. He was going in the third. I mean, he was, it was very high up in the ADP. You draft him, you spend that draft price on him. You know what he can do. You're stuck. You're playing him every single week. Meanwhile, you see quarterbacks on the waiver while. You see Brian Hoyer putting up three straight 300-yard games, but you can't make that move.

Because you spent a third round. And that goes with any quarterback you got in those first three rounds. And, yeah, that's just another feather in the hat of avoiding the early round quarterbacks. But, of course, we talk about these guys because some people want to play the game where they take the quarterback early. And you should know how we feel about these guys because maybe they do start slipping in draft because the name of the game. Or you're in a two quarterback league in which case. Yeah, absolutely. Position scarcity. The name of the game is.

not passing on the value of those early wide receivers and running backs. So if you're in a league where everyone's taken a really late quarterback, don't be afraid to draft Aaron Rogers in the sixth round. I am not afraid. I'm talking to the people right now. I don't want them to think that I'm saying under no circumstances will I draft these guys. It's just about the right time. Usually.

You're not going to get that. All right. Mike and I have this next guy at number seven. Jason's got him a little lower. Captain Kirk Cousins comes in at number seven on our consensus rankings last year, just under 5,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. No more Garcin and D. Jacks. No more Sean McVeigh at the offensive coordinator position. You bring in Matt Kavanaugh and you bring in Terrell Prior. Hopefully you'll have a healthy Josh Doxon, an ascendant.

Jameson Crowder. Last year, just to give you the context of how good he was, especially in the second half of the year, 8.1 yards per attempt, third most in the league, almost 5,000 yards, as we said. Interesting stat, though, with Jordan Reed healthy, averaged just under two touchdowns a game. Without Jordan Reed, it was 1.17 touchdowns a game. 290 yards a game with Reed versus 253 without.

It's not rocket science to say, you got good players, so you have more yards. But it doesn't always equate. You look at Andy Dalton. He actually put up very similar total yardage numbers with or without AJ Green. But in this situation, a lot of dependency on Reed, I think a lot of that has to do with not having red zone weapons outside of Reed because you had no height with Garsohn and Jackson. I combine them right there to Darsan, if you notice. But with Pryor and with Daxon, you've got bigger guys. I like there a celebrity couple. Darsan.

Darsan. Darsan is gone. Here's the question I have when it comes Kirk Cousins. I like Kirk Cousins. I think he is a very good fantasy quarterback and a pretty good real-life quarterback. The question I have, and I know my answer to it, and I think it's different than Andy's answer, so I will ask Mike, is do you think that the passing, the receiving weapons that Kirk Cousins has this year? So Terrell Pryor.

theoretically a healthy dachshund, Reed, Crowder. Do you think those are better or worse than when he had, you know, obviously injured Darsson? Darsan, Dachshon Jackson, Pierre Garsohn, Jordan Reed. How do you see the past? Sure. Are they an equal same as last year? Are they better? Are they worse? I would say that they are on paper, like as of right now, probably slightly worse.

But the ceiling of having Terrell Pryor and Josh Doxon, two huge men playing wide receiver and the improvement of Crowder who, now he's the two, right? They've said that in two wide receiver sets, it's going to be Terrell Pryor and James and Crowder. And so as long as Josh Doxon can be adequate, then I believe it is actually an upgrade with adding in Torel Pryor who's faster than...

Okay, maybe not fit, but at least as fast as Sean Jackson except a much larger target for cousins. I think Deshaun Jackson would take offense to that claim. Well, of course he would. I don't think he's as fast as Sean Jackson, but he's quick. Whatever. All right. Interesting fact about him. You know, we've talked about what we call positive regression. So what we're saying is an improvement here.

towards more of an average. If you throw over 5,000 yards, you're expecting more than 25 touchdowns. You saw this with Derek Carr last year. Bad 10-zone touchdown percentage for Cousins. He was 21% of the time. That's 25th out of 26 qualified. So we'd hope that that would change, especially with bigger weapons in the Red Song. All right, this might be the biggest surprise on our list. Number eight, the Red Rocket. Andy Dalton. Red rifle?

I just called him the Red Rocket, though. That's his nickname. Yeah, his nickname is the Red Rifle, but we have always nicknamed him the Red Rocket. I'm pretty sure that. Yeah, I believe that's it. I believe Brooks is nodding. So apparently that's the case. Now, here's the thing. We have him as our consensus number eight quarterback overall. He is on an average draft position. He is the 18th quarterback off the board. So.

That's fine. That's fine. This is why you, you know, is why at least we don't draft, you know, half of these guys we're talking about. I mean, why would I draft Matt Ryan in the seventh when Andy Dalton, I think is going to be just as good as Matt Ryan for fantasy and he is absolutely free.