Fantasy Football 2017 - Top 10 Quarterbacks + ADP Predictions

That knocks him back into the seventh round. And if that is just fear that is not grounded in anything, let's just pretend he misses week one, okay? Starts the season week two against Arizona. Andrew Luck in the seventh round seems like a steal. Am I wrong? 4,200 yards, 31 touchdowns and missed the game last year. Yeah, Andrew Luck in the seventh round, I think, is going to be a good value. I expect that he could fall all the way in drafts to, you know, where he's going behind Matt Ryan.

in leagues because people are going to be afraid to pull that trigger on a guy that's injured. But what you need to realize is Andrew Luck has missed games before and he's come back strong. Over the last three years, all this love we're giving to Aaron Rogers, rightfully so. But over the last three years, no quarterback has finished with more percent of their games as a quarterback won than Andrew Luck at 73.68%. That means if you are going to end up,

grabbing one of those earlier round quarterbacks, you need to make sure, unlike, you know, the Drew Brees, Ben Rathlisburgers, where they might finish as, you know, the third best quarterback, but half of the games are going to be great, half of the games are going to be bad. When you invest early in a quarterback, you want a guy who's going to do it week in, week out with consistency, whether they're home, on the road, you know, that type. So I think Andrew Luck is actually the kind of...

when you combine draft strategy with high-end quarterback, he's one of those guys that actually makes sense for helping you win a championship because you're not giving up a second round pick. Right now, on average, you're giving up a seventh round pick. So, you know, you're not losing that much. And what you are getting is a guy that's going to be very reliable. Here's the, do you have any concern? Ooh, do you have any concern with Andrew Luck that last year, Indianapolis gave up nearly three sacks a game?

Anderluck took 41 sacks last year. He's injured. He's going to likely miss week one because of damage he sustained from getting hit. Now, it's probably not improved there either. I mean, right. And it certainly has not. But so is there, are we talking a high injury risk? I don't think so. I don't think so. I mean, this surgery was to repair that labrum. And I think you have to look at it. He's also one of the most.

mobile quarterbacks in football. You just talked about Aaron Rogers. Well, he was seventh in rushing yards at the position. He had over 350 rushing yards. And what you lean on with Andrew Luck more than almost any other quarterback is the big play. I mean, he fits the mold of a fantasy big play guy. 11% of his attempts over 20 yards down the field in terms of his attempts to Hilton. Now you've got Moncrief there. You have Aiken.

7.8 yards per attempt. I think you hope that he continues to do what he's had to do, which is they don't have a running game, much like Aaron Rogers, didn't last year. You have to put it, put it in his hands. Their defense wasn't that good, and you have to hope he can stay upright. That's what I mean, though. You're hoping he could stay upright when he got hit. He got sacked 41 times. And he puts himself, he's certainly mobile, but he puts himself in more.

danger because his running style is not like Aaron Rogers, where Rogers won't take hits. Andrew Luck is willing to do that because he's so big. I'm just saying that even in the seventh round, that sounds like it could be a great value for a guy who can be the quarterback one, but last two years. You have to draft another quarterback if you draft Andrew Luck. That's the weird thing right now is if you think he's going to miss a week, you probably have to take a guy in the later rounds.

and have that insurance, at least for the first couple weeks to see how he is. Seven games played in 2015. Missed a game last year. Is going to miss a game this year? Like, is it getting to the point where his body just can't bounce back as well? I'm just asking the question. No, I don't know. I don't think it's to that point. That's my honest answer. He's, you know, three years in a row played 16 games.

And then last year he only missed. Last year he only missed one game. Then he continues to get beat up. And he got the surgery to get better. I think that they're being slow with him to make sure that that re-entry doesn't happen. I don't worry about injury with nearly any quarterback. Who do you worry about more? Cam Newton or Andrew Luck getting hurt? Cam, because he is running and taking different type of hits. Both have had shoulder surgery in the offseason. I just have this fear that we will be having this conversation again next off season.

I hope not. Well, certainly we hope not. Is there an argument to be made for this next guy to be number one overall? Tom Brady, number three in our consensus ranks. Jason, you got him at number two, Mike, number four. I got him at three. I mean, where do you begin talking about Tom Brady? I think the most insane statistic is two turnovers on the year by Tom Brady in total.

Seriously? Yeah, that's 0.4%. Derek Carr was the second best with nine total turnovers. He had two. That's pretty good. Tom Brady was unbelievable. You actually mentioned earlier that the only quarterback in the top eight, we were going to talk about that missed games was.

uh, Andrew Luck. That's not true. Tom Brady. Well, but he didn't finish his top 12 last year. That's what Andrew is saying. Tom Brady missed four games. And had he not missed those games, Tom Brady would probably be going as the number one quarterback off the board because two years ago, he was the number two best quarterback in fantasy. And last year on a per game basis, he was as good as it gets. Now this year.

You add weapons to his arsenal. He gets, you know, pretty much every single receiver he had. Gronk is now healthy. You add Brandon Cooks. Again, we said that every year. Sure, but, I mean, we know that some years he has Gronk for 16 last year. This year is going to be even better. And with Brandon Cooks, I think there's a reason that I've had Tom Brady as my number two quarterback.

from the get-go. He's a guy if I'm in a redraft league and I don't care about age or having him around for any kind of long term. They're ready. The Patriots are the type of team that will set the world on fire if they can. They will score 45. I was wondering if we're trending towards seeing a world, that was my words exactly, a world on fire type of year.

You had his highest yards per attempt last year since 2011. You add a guy that's only going to increase that in Brandon Cooks. I mean, you're talking about second in the league in yards per attempt last year, only behind Matt Ryan, who lit it up with Gabriel and Julio. He was ahead of Andrew Luck in that department. He threw a touchdown every 15 passes last season. So like Mike was saying, you know, the model of efficiency at the quarterback position.

Is he your kind of, I mean, he's going in the third round right now. That's the problem. So he's being drafted right around Aaron Rogers. No, no footland member will be drafting Tom Brady in a redraft. I hope not. Yeah. I mean, if you listen to the show, you know the metrics and the stats that talk about, you know, the poor investment and giving up one of those high end running back or wide receivers to go to a replaceable position at quarterback.

So that's the tough part. If I were in a league and I owned Aaron Rogers and I thought I could go trade him in a redraft for Tom Brady Plus because of the name of Aaron Rogers and because of Brady's age, I would be looking to make that move. I don't think you're going to see a very significant difference between them at all. I think you have the chance that Brady goes absolutely crazy. And I think you can get value on top of him.

for in an Aaron Rogers situation. So I'd be looking to do that because I think Brady has every bit of the chance to finish at number one this year. Yeah, we're, these, these top guys is just splitting here. Yeah, I know, even with the next guy too. It's, it's almost more about, it's, it's not about are they good and how will they perform and how have they perform? It's just about what do they cost you in your draft. What do you have to give up? And that's why I like Andrew Luck, because I don't have to give up what I do for the other three big guys.

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This is from 2007 on where he finished in fantasy football. Mind you, 16 games played in every year, except for I think one, he had 15 games played. Five, one, two, six, two, one, two, six, three. Yep, that's a nice song. You know what you get. You're done. And it's not like he's dropping off. He led the league in passing yards. He led the league in attempts, and he had an insane 73% completion percentage. The only blemish on Drew Brees, one of...

maybe two. One would be home road split. The other one would be 15 interceptions, which was seventh most in the league. But when you're throwing the ball 673 times, it's going to happen, right? Yeah, and his home road splits, look, they exist. He's seven points. Since 2012, he's seven points better at home. That's okay. I can deal with that for Drew Brie's. These are, it's not big bend levels of the home road split. And I'm not going to let one, uh, one pimple.

on my nose. I'm not going to stop that. Let that stop me from going to the prom and being the best with Drew Brie. So I love him. I think that of the big quarterbacks, he's the one who I think has the highest potential to finish as a top three quarterback mixed in. You want him in the fifth? With the lower ADP. I probably don't want him in the fifth, but I'm just saying of the guys we're talking about who the question marks on Drew Brie's.

While I would, I love the Andrew Luck value. There's just, there's a lot of question mark. So I'm not adding him into this, but of, of Rogers, Brady, Breeze. I will take Breeze. He's the latest of them and has just as much chance as Brady and Rogers to finish as the number two or number one guy. I feel like if you grab Drew Breeze, you have to be running two quarterbacks because while he will finish as, you know, a top six quarterback and, and very well.