Explain Yourself! + Rankings Debates, UDK Releases! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/31

size, and that's just a really, really high number. You know, that's, that's higher than Devante Adams was to a reasonable 22% of the touchdowns, but again, of a smaller pie. And this is just how the stats play out. What I am bringing to light here is that a bad year is in the range of outcomes for Deontay Johnson. And you need to be aware of that possibility because he's seen as this super safe PPR option. He very well could.

PPR his way to 100 receptions like he did last year if he is hyper-targetted by Kenny Pickett. But again, Kenny Pickett is mobile. Kenny Pickett will, one, he takes some time to process and he is able to scramble and get out of the pocket. He's going to do that in his rookie year. You see that a lot of times from rookies. Big Ben was a statue in the pocket for a bad offensive line who took the ball from the center and threw it to Deontay Johnson immediately.

I don't think that happens this year. And I think the touchdowns won't be there. So my stats haven't fallen to. We're not really debating. We're not debating anything from the same grounds. Like we're starting from different points. So I mean, if I was. Tribisky really. Yeah, he is going to win the job. Oh, no, no, no, no. That's fine. I'm saying is he really that much better than I mean, he's a picket? He supported high volume Alan Robinson in his career. He has. And so, but if we, if we begin with the.

like the same starting point, which I won't begin with. But if we did, but, you know, it's a compelling argument. If Kenny Pickett's a starter, I'm not taking Deontay Johnson at nine overall because a rookie's not supporting that. So you're absolutely right. I'm not willing to make that leap. Mike, I don't know if you are that Kenny Pickett's going to be the starter. I know that in OTAs it's been first rep, Ms. Trubisky. I know that Mason Rudolph's involved in the rotation. So as of right now, I do have Kenny Pickett winning the job.

The argument for Kenny Pickett is difficult because the numbers are very staggering in that the fact that rookie quarterbacks just, they don't perform that well for, as in like they don't support fantasy wide receivers. 70% of rookie quarterback since 2004 have not sustained a top 36. Right. The thing about that though is like Trevor Lawrence was the number one overall pick.

meaning he went to a crap team. All like Zach Wilson was number, what, three overall? He went to a crap team. Or number two overall, thank you. Went to a really bad team. This is just, this is such a different situation here where the Pittsburgh Steelers franchise has been so well managed and run under Mike Tomlin that even when, you know, Big Ben was out for the year and we had to deal.

with watching Mason Rudolph and Doug Hodges, which that was Deontay Johnson's rookie year. Deontay still showed the promise of like, we knew that watching Deontay Johnson with Mason Rudolph, well, this guy's good. When Big Ben comes back, we're going to see some real stuff here. And so the situation, and Deontay Johnson, Claypool, a high pick in Pickens, like the Muth. This team is loaded. This team is not.

the New York Jets of last year. This team is not the Jacksonville Jaguars of last year where they're just trying to find some wide receiver pieces. So, and again, like I can't give a full statistical argument. It just is to me looking at it that this is just such a different situation. And Deonti Johnson is such a different type of wide receiver who gets open.

And a rookie quarterback is going to love a wide receiver who I see him open. This isn't Chase Claypool who I have to trust he's coming down with the 50-50 ball. This is I can clearly see that Deontay Johnson is wide open. So I'm more 22 versus where is where I have him. It's actually under where he's being drafted in baseball and underdog right now. I do understand where you're coming from that. There could be a bad, bad year for Deontay Johnson.

But I think even a bad, bad year, he's still on the top 36. He's also not showing up at OTAs. He's in a contract dispute of sorts. They got to get that picket to pickings in OTA. Get it going. It's just fun to say. Yeah. All right, Andy. Okay, you're up now, mister. We're talking about David Montgomery, a very solid.

running back. I think that's the highest praise I can give him who is playing on a very poor Chicago Bears franchise. I think that's the highest praise I can give them. You have as a top 10 running back coming in as your running back eight. I have him and Mike and I both have him as a solid RB2, but down at 17 and 22. I have some follow-up questions, but you can start.

Andy? Explain yourself. You guys actually both have him about where his best ball ADP is. Look, no one, no one enjoys drafting David Montgomery for some reason. It doesn't make any sense to me. I haven't ranked at eight. It's very high. He finished at four in 2020. Were the Bears good then? They were okay. Okay. Last year, he was on 11009 pace. His points per game at the running back position was the running back nine.

So I haven't ranked where he was on a horrible, devastatingly bad offense. Two straight years, 75% of running back snaps. You read about what's happening in camp? This is David Montgomery's backfield. There are no indications that Kalil Herbert is stealing snaps from him, nor were there when Montgomery returned from injury. They brought in Karie Blazing Game, a real true fullback. To me, the variable is Justin Fields.

Like if Justin Fields, like the splits with Justin Fields on the field versus David Montgomery with another quarterback, they were not as beneficial to Montgomery because of the running prowess of Justin Fields. And then the office just plain not moving. So that's the variable to me. But my ranking is based on.

volume. There are very few running backs that get his level of production. He had 54 receptions in 13 games played last year. That's 60 plus reception numbers from a durable difference-making running back that finished at four that would have finished at nine by points per game last year if he hadn't missed game due to injury. I'm just ranking him where he's been. I mean, he has been a consistent contributor in fantasy for two consecutive years.

He wins people leagues regularly, and I think he's a high volume RB2 that you can get very late. I mean, he's one of the best bargains in fantasy. That's my case. Yeah, the hardest part for me with David Montgomery is my projections don't hate him. Like my numbers, when you see the raw numbers, they don't look like someone who's going to finish the running back 22. It's a matter of liking players more than him. The question comes down to those.

the receptions. Like when Justin Fields is the full-time guy, will he be seeing those games of six plus targets regularly? And we know that. He saw fewer last year with Justin Fields than without him. So I give you that. That is the variable. Because we know, like Lamar Jackson, like guys that really can run. And Justin Fields towards the, after the, the.

terrible first half that he had of his rookie career. He started running a lot more. Maybe that was just him, you know, freaking out or him saying that no one else on this team is getting it done for me, so I'm going to get it done. But that turns into fewer checkdowns for the running back position. So that's my biggest fear for Montgomery simply is reception-related. Yeah. So I have a different thought, which it goes back to Andy. You were saying,

You keep saying he was the running back nine by points per game, but I can't find that to be true. Yeah, he was 13.4. 13.4 in the games that he played last year. Yeah, but per game, which is right ahead of Cordero Patterson or right behind Cordero Patterson in the rankings last year. On points per game and half point. No, on points per game last year, he should be the running back 21 is where he's showing up.

in our 13.5 would be just behind Aaron Jones, 13.5, DeAndre Swift, Elijah Mitchell, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Najee, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Furnett, James Connor, Camara, Mixon, Echler, Taylor. Are you really reading 20 names? Well, I just want, I mean, we have a difference of what maybe we looked at. Yeah, I don't know if there was, I mean, I'm looking at points per game for all running backs versus.

saying, okay, his points per game, how does that qualify to like the total season of everybody? But in points per game, if you take all running backs points per game, he was 21. And I view the Bears as worse this coming year than they were last year. So the leap to being top 10 is really the difficulty with the receptions. I actually like David. You said at the beginning, like when you draft David Montgomery, nobody's excited. I feel like.

I feel like I really like to have Montgomery, but only as a running back too. As, you know, if I've got a high end running back one, I think he's a good plug and play guy. I think the issue here is just what is his ceiling? And I just don't see that huge ceiling on this terrible bottom five team with fields who might not pass the ball and utilize his skill set as much. That's my issue is more of the top end play. Splained.

All right, Mike. Cam Acres. You have my 19. We have them too low. Yeah. Explain yourself. This one is, it's a really, it's easy for me because watching Cam Acres in his playoff run was painful. We give full credit to the man tearing his Achilles in the preseason and actually getting back onto the field in the same exact season was.

A miracle of modern medicine. It's something that I don't recall truly seeing and not just getting back on the field, but getting back on the field and becoming the guy. And the argument for Cam Acres to me just comes down to this. The Rams are good. They're coming off of a Super Bowl championship. They're going to be in the running again for making it to the playoffs, winning the NFC West, especially comparing themselves to the other teams of the NFC West.

And Sean McVeigh, he's a one running back guy. Like, it's buried in a lot of noise, but going back to Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley, I mean, they absolutely just ran him into the floor and that degenerative knee that he had. It really became a problem. And then you go to this season. Darrell Henderson, at the beginning of the season, he looked like one of the top steals of the running back position because you weren't really sure.

Is it going to be the guy because you had the Acres injury? When do you go in on Henderson? And Henderson was very, very good for fantasy purposes from weeks 1 through 12. Well, then you have, you know, the Henderson getting injured as he does. And then when Sony Michelle went off, it was everything for him. You've seen nearly 90% of the snaps for Sony Michelle. And then as soon as Cam Acres was ready, he was basically the full-time running back again. You get some more real...

rehab time for him over the off season. And I'm concerned. I'm concerned about Cam Acres, the player, if he keeps looking like the player who he was in the playoffs, who I can't, what was the number? He was like sub three, a carrier. He was sub four for sure. And it just was really, really inefficient, but getting a ton of work. And it doesn't, but that doesn't matter. My opinion on Cam Acres does not matter? What matters is, does Sean McVeigh like him?

Because if Sean McVeigh likes him, he's going to put him out there. And if he's out there, he's going to get a ton of work, and the Rams are going to score a ton of touchdown. So it really just, it's as easy as that. All of us, though, we're all under where he is going as the running back 16 in the late 4th currently in best ball. So clearly we all have our concerns about what he can be. But if Anchors is actually healthy and ready to go, he'll be a top 10 running back.

I top 10 if he is actually ready to go and that's a really big question that's a really big statement yeah I mean top 10 is top 10's a tough one for me I think the range of outcomes on acres he's he's in the there's probably only four or five players like him where the upside is tremendous the downside is tremendous like the the unknowns I mean Elijah Mitchell fits that

Bill, too, where, you know, if he's the guy and he's healthy and he's on the field, he's probably going to be a top 10 player. Cam Acres, look, I want that to happen. I think I haven't ranked too low. I think he's more of a value than where I currently have them. I'm just afraid of what I saw. And when I looked at this team and was projecting it, it didn't get me there. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah, it's, it's funny to me for you to be the high man up, because when I hear or see a new as