Explain Yourself! + Rankings Debates, UDK Releases! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/31

injury concerns, age, and then competition. Jason, you and I were talking in the office yesterday. The wide receiver room in New Orleans, it's one of the deepest in football now. It's very interesting. You have Michael Thomas, yes, but you have Chris Alave, who, yeah, I mean, throw away the Marvin Harrison comparisons that came out of OTAs already. But this is a high draft capital investment. This is maybe their best actual wide receiver on the roster. And then you have...

Jarvis Landry, what does he do? He'll have a catch. He's Michael Thomas. Like, that's what he does in the offense. Separation, escape valve for James Winston. He's going to be valuable. You still have Treyquan Smith. You have Deontay Hardy. You have Marquez Callow. This is a very deep wide receiver room. You're bringing up a lot of trash names there at the end. Hey, you can't. You respect the name of Hardy, my friend. That guy is sneaky good. I will accept the trash name being associated with Treyquan Smith. I will accept that.

The jury agrees. But I mean, you guys want to talk about James Winston being valuable last year in the time that he was on the field? That was with Marquez Calloway. That was with Deonté Harris, who is now Deonté Hardy? So I just think, look, is there upside for Michael Thomas? No. I don't think there is. I actually don't think that there's upside for him. And zero chemistry with James Winston. We have never seen it on the field before.

15 completions a game. You talk about volume. Winston was 15 completions a game, not 45 pass attempts, Drew Brees. That's because he was throwing touchdowns, left, right, and center. Well, to Mark Wes Galloway, I mean, down the field. So I would agree with the upside argument. But, you know, a lot of what you were saying, like he hasn't done the double-digit touchdowns, he'll never get back to where he is. I completely agree. I'm sure Mike does as well. Yeah, I do. But where he was before was the wide receiver won.

We've got him at wide receiver 17 as a wide receiver 2. This comes down completely to me about health. If Michael Thomas is actually healthy, and that is a big if, you'll see in the ultimate draft kit, his risk rating is he's not an unrisky draft pick, especially goodness gracious, two years removed from an ankle injury and you're still not practicing in full. So I am fine if you just say, I am O-U-T.

on Michael Thomas, you can deal with the ankle injury. But my rankings, and as of right this second, my belief, is that if Michael Thomas gets back on the field, which the projection he should, if he is out there, he's going to still dominate the target share. I realize that you've got two other capable wide receivers, but, you know, this is a player who is really, really good. And if he has 130 targets, which is very reasonable in this offense,

He's going to be a wide receiver too. But again, the ankle, the ankle is. Yeah. It's super sketch. Yeah. And the interesting thing is as of this moment in best ball, Gabriel Davis is going ahead of Michael Thomas. So there is a consensus fear. Like I am in the consensus fear-wise. I mean, I have him at 30. His best ball ADP is wide receiver 30.

If I can get, you know, if you guys can get him there and you think he can be even 17, that's a value. I certainly don't mind that. But anytime that I look at that situation and I go, Michael Thomas could be the number one fantasy wide receiver for the Saints or he could be like, I don't know, it could be like the fourth target in terms of total volume. Like Alvin Camero is going to get the ball past to him a bunch. Alave is looking great in OTAs and was drafted to really be involved in this offense. I just don't.

Have the confidence, but I think it's been laid out pretty clearly. Mike, we have to turn to you because this is probably, this is probably our biggest actual philosophical disagreement rankings-wise across all positions so far this off-season, in my opinion. Now, what I didn't realize was that Jason was mostly with me on this. Cortland Sutton, you have him at 11. I am at 22, Jason at 19.

We have talked about him in the past, but this is an offense with a lot of weapons. This is an offense with not just Tim Patrick, not just Jerry Judy, who seems like the legal problems are behind him, a couple of running backs that are valuable. K.J. Hamler ahead of schedule. Albert Gweban. There is a lot of unknown in this offense in terms of target distribution. Russell Wilson will provide high value targets, but you have him at 11, which...

to me feels like a really big leap. So Jason, if you don't mind, please ask Mike. Mike, would you explain yourself? All right. So the conversation of Cortland Sutton, it's two different conversations. Because you can start with the player and the quarterback. I'll start with Russell Wilson, who Russell Wilson since 2015 has supported at least one top 15 wide receiver throughout that time.

Russell Wilson in that Seattle offense, the run for a Seattle offense where they, Russ, bail us out because the run, run didn't work. Basically since 2012, they've been a top 10 offense in points per game. Like, Russell Wilson is not just good. Russell Wilson is great, and he has been great for fantasy purposes as well. And then you look at what Cortland Sutton has had to deal with.

over the course of his career. We're talking about Case Keenham, Joe Flacco, Drew Locke, and Teddy Bridgewater. Joe Flacco. There's a Mount Rushmore you don't want to visit. And Joe Flacco, who, like, he stands out as the best quarterback on that list. Joe Flacko, for minor, Super Bowl winning quarterback, I say that with a wink. But in 2019, that's when Sutton was having the breakout year. When Joe Flacco was the quarterback, he was averaging 5 and 80 per game. Like,

Those are really, really strong numbers. Okay. And so let's look back at what Cortland Sutton did last year. On 98 targets, Cortland Sutton had two receiving touchdowns. The Broncos wide receivers last year combined. That sounds like a bad year. Yeah. But was it just Sutton or the Broncos wide receivers combining for eight total receiving touchdowns? We're talking between Patrick, Judy, and Cortland Sutton. Like,

nothingness was happening, and because it was Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Locke in those couple games. Players in the 90 target range, like where Cortland Sutton was, Adam Thielen, 10 touchdowns, Tyler Boyd, five touchdowns, even the lowly, which I don't mean to call him that, but Russell Gage, who last year was considered the lowly. Even he had four touchdown, double the amount that Cortland Sutton had because they were actually getting targets.

from a good quarterback. So Russell Wilson coming in and with what I am projecting, Cortland Sutton to be the number one wide receiver on this team. And I'm doing that because he's the one who has actually done it. Tim Patrick is solid. But Tim Patrick does not have ceiling like Cortland Sutton does. Cortland Sutton was paid. He is 26 years old. He just got that new gigantic contract.

He had the second highest average depth of target among wide receivers. Russell Wilson certainly loves that and knows how to get that done with guys like Tidal Lockett. So it's not just Cortland Sutton is bigger and can catch touchdowns. No, he can actually hit big plays down the field as well. I think he is just an immense talent who has not been able to be unlocked because of the situation around him with those sub-average quarterbacks that he has had to play with. So Russ coming in.

And in the range of outcomes, Russ doing all of those things, like averaging 30 plus touchdowns every year, what happens if he gets more volume? Sure, maybe he throws some more interceptions, but you're going to have a higher yardage output, you're going to have a higher touchdown output. Andy, you've brought up the AFC West at least a few times of what happens in those games when he's playing against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Russ is going to have to get it done.

And I'm projecting that Cortland Sutton is the clear number one wide receiver, even though he is not being drafted anywhere near where I have him ranked. I think he is an absolute steal ADP-wise. It's funny because Andy brought up, he was surprised that I was more on Andy's side. And I am ranking-wise. The reason that he was surprised those, because I'm in on Cortland Sutton. I think Cortland Sutton will be the one for the Broncos. I think that, I mean, you brought it up. Russell Wilson is.

Always had a top 15 wide receiver that he's supported. It's just really tough for me to get there. Like you have Cortland Sutton with 150 targets. I can't get there. I mean, D.K. Metcalf the last two years has had 129 targets. And that was with pretty much only Tyler Lockett. Now you've got, you've got KJ Hamler, along with Tim Patrick and Jerry Judy, a couple good tight ends. So I think that he could get to your ranking, but I don't think it'll come the way that you have him.

It'll probably be double-digit touchdowns if it happens versus 150 targets. Well, I think the conviction is, I think the difference is the conviction on definitively the number one option in the offense. You know, last year, Tim Patrick, Carl and Sutton, very similar reception totals, very similar yardage. Jerry Judy's still with upside potential to break out. Sure. I think that's all it is. I think we all agree, Russ is going to elevate every piece of this offense.

consistently. And it's just a matter of are you going to be, are you going to draft them where you have them and then be disappointed because it's a Judy week or a Patrick week or somebody else? Or is it going to be a very, is it going to be what we saw in the very beginning of the year last year where it looked like in week two, Corlin Sutton was the steal of the draft? Yes. Where he went out and I bet you people acquired him after that week and then it didn't go the way that they hoped. But I think we all agree that the lift will happen by Russell Wilson. Now, much more egregiously.

This one is... Oh, yeah. I don't want to... Here we go. I don't want to be rude, but you're dumb. Bring it on. Deontay Johnson. Mike and I have ranked at 19 and 22, which in and of itself could be disrespectful to Deontay Johnson. But you are an embarrassment. Sir. You have them at 41. Correctly. Not correctly. Last year, he had 169 targets and 107 receptions. You have...

dug a grave and thrown him in. And to have him at 41 after the seasons that he has had, after the clear evidence of his elite separation, and for you to believe in a guy like Michael Thomas to go out there and be good despite the lack of Drew Brees, and then take Deonté Johnson and spit upon this man, ranking him outside the top 36 wide receivers.

He was a top 10 wide receiver last year. Jason, explain yourself. Happily. Happily. Yeah, I am obviously down on Deonté Johnson. I'm out. Andy, you have brought this up many times before that.

A bad quarterback can wreck a great wide receiver. Your go-to example is the great first ballot Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, the 6-3-218 pound wide receiver, who when he had bad quarterbacks was the wide receiver 37 and 52. So now let's look at the 510 182 pound, also good wide receiver, Deontay Johnson, and say, what if his quarterback play is bad?

maybe he's not going to be great. And so here's my argument for Deontay Johnson. Wasn't it bad last year? Well, let's compare that. Let's see if it was really, really bad and egregious because I agree, Big Ben, this was the worst Big Ben we've ever seen. Granted, Hall of Fame quarterback Big Ben, who hyper targets his wide receiver won, but he was the worst version of himself. I believe, rightly or wrongly, and we'll know more closer to the season, I believe that Kenny Pickett starts the season.

That's how I've projected the Steelers. And so at the very least, for this argument, let's indulge that idea to see what it might look like should Kenny Pickett start the season. In this situation, Kenny Pickett will not throw for more than Big Ben's 3,740 yards. Mack Jones last year, who was fantastic, threw for 3,500. Trevor Lawrence under that, the comps to Kenny Pickett of Dalton and Carr, they were in the 3,300s.

Kenny Pickett will not throw for more touchdowns than Big Ben's 22. Over the last decade, there have been seven first round quarterbacks that started their entire rookie season, and they have averaged 17 touchdowns. Last year, Trevor Lawrence had 10 passing touchdowns. The 17 game pace for Zach Wilson was 11.8. For Justin Fields was 11.9. All of these quarterbacks were much more highly touted, higher drafted.

then can he pick it? I have Deonte Johnson going from a 25.5% target share to a 24%. That's still a good number. It's just not as great, but it's part of a smaller pie. And I have Deonté Johnson going from a pretty outrageous 36% of the touchdowns at his...