Early Top 10 WR Rankings + Mystery Boxes, Dynasty Download - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/20

really depleted in Tennessee. You got Jonu Smith leaving and other wide receivers. So, I mean, this is the opportunity to prove that he can be a true number one wide receiver, the guy that's going to be moving the chain's first rate every time type of player, can he succeed? And is that who he is? Is that the kind of player that AJ Brown can be? This offense has been ridiculously efficient.

You know, 70 receptions is 57 receptions fewer than Stefan Diggs had last year. Nobody doubts the ability of A.J. Brown, but will they remain this efficient of an offense? And will he be able to, you know, what are they going to do with the offense without Corey Davis? Who is going to step up? You're not going to fill, you know, I don't think the 106 targets is going to 160 for A.J. Brown. That's not his MO.

Why do you have him at eight, Mike? What do you see as some of the red flags for a top 10 finish since he hasn't, you know, he finished just outside that last year? I guess more just liking other guys a little bit more than A.J. Brown, it's not a knock on him, but they are changing their offensive coordinator because Arthur had a plan and it was to become a head code. So, that's a good plan for us to see. Nice job.

Good plan. That is a variable. That is a change of things. I can't imagine they're going to try and remake the offense from the ground up. But they were play action kings under the Arthur Smith mold. And that plan, do they keep that implemented as often as it was last year? Because that's, I mean, the play action with Derek Henry and then going deep to A.J. Brown. And I know it sounds like.

silly to question will they do that? It's just, it's a different offensive coordinator. You don't know for sure if he actually believes that that was the reason for the success or not. 21 career touchdowns for A.J. Brown, listen to this. 48% have come from 30 plus yards out. Oh, man. 48% from 30 plus yards out. This is the team, the Titans are the team, you know, whether it was Derek Henry's efficiency, whether it was Ryan Tannahills emergence.

or the way they run their offense. It's a little bit of an anomaly the way that they do things, but they have done it for two consecutive years now. We have that sample size. And A.J. Brown is such a good player. That being said, he had some drops last year that were maddening, I know, for you, Jason, watching these games. If he doesn't take advantage of, you know, the big play, you can be left with a little bit lower of a consistency than you would hope for from your wide receiver one.

Yeah, it's really surprising to think about what he did and then feel like he left a lot on the field, but he did. I even went back this offseason, rewatched all of his deep targets on the season to kind of look at a new metric that I'm developing behind the scenes. And it was really.

crazy because you watch him make these unfathomable catches, whether it's contested or just one hand outreach, and then he gets hit in the hands wide open, streaking down the field and just bobble, bobble, bubble drop. I do think he takes a massive step forward in targets. I think he will be around 150 targets. I don't see how it doesn't happen that way. He was on 120 target pace already after the injury, and then you lose.

So many targets in the offense. I expect 25% target share last year. Yeah. In that offense. So smaller pie. Yes. Smaller pie, but I mean, it just shows that he was already demanding a lot. Did you guys see that video of Derek Henry out there catching passes? That was.

Yes. I did not see this. Oh, my gosh. Here, describe it to me. Okay, I'll describe it to you. I want to be in on this. Okay, so he's running forward. Like, he's doing a route right now. There's no defenders or anybody on the field. It's just him on grass. I'm with you. And then he runs and maybe he'll go to the left. And then someone will throw him the ball. Yeah. And he's wide open. And then he, and then the ball lands in his hands. He catches it. And then he runs into the end zone. So it's really neat to watch him catch these really easy passes.

and have people be like, whoa, Derek Henry is a pass catcher this year. Remember when Jordan Howard did that in that offseason, that one? We did in two games. It was awesome. They should throw the ball to him more. Yeah, but I just think. In the screen game. The videos are, yes, exactly. They should set up more screens. You should have like six screens a game, Derek Henry. Yeah, because one and four goes to the house. Yes. All right, Calvin Ridley comes in at number six. Oh, yeah.

Mike has him at six. We have them at seven, Jason and I. Last year, 143 targets, 90 for 13, 74, and 9. Fantasy finish of wide receiver 4. None of us are putting him at wide receiver 4. We understand what happened with Julio last year, but this was a breakout season for Calvin Ridley. Eight games with 100 plus receiving yards. He led the NFL. When Matt Ryan is running this offense, 100-yard games just flow.

It almost doesn't even take very long. Ridley will catch two big digs, and then it's over. He's at over 100 yards, and it's just kind of what he does. Atlanta, my goodness, he led Atlanta with 2,042 air yards. He led Atlanta's total air yards. He led the NFL with 8 yards. Sorry, led the NFL with 2042 air yards. Just downfield targets. You love that. Yes, and that's why I'm very bullish on Calvin Ridley. He is.

He is an elite separator. He is an elite route runner. I mean, it's like when you saw the, when you were watching Stefan Diggs, and this player is very good, and you knew a breakout is inevitable for Stefan Diggs. I think that that type of breakout can happen for Calvin Ridley. And that's even with Julio Jones being healthy and doing Julio Jones type things.

Both Calvin Ridley and Julio can be elite fantasy options. I'm a little bit more bullish on Calvin Ridley, just youth and Julio, his body is, it's getting to the end. He has that Houdini ability where Calvin Ridley is all of a sudden just wide open, right in the middle of the field.

And he's also 30 yards downfield. It's one of my favorite things watching Calvin Ridley because, you know, we're not watching the All-22 film. We're watching the same broadcast. The camera's on the quarterback. And then they throw the ball down to Calvin Ridley, who is, oh, they forgot to guard him again. And it's like, no, no, they didn't forget to guard him. He just knows how to get open, find the soft spots in the zone every time. He's so much fun to watch. And I agree. I mean, if I'm on the clock and.

You've got Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones as the last two guys left. I don't want to be the one caught holding the bag when the time comes for Julio. I want the young hotness. And that's Calvin Ridley. He proved it last year. He's fantastic. Julio is still a great player. And he's still going to demand a lot of targets. And if he's healthy, instead of playing nine games, that will cause some complications. It's interesting when you look at last year.

The wide receiver target percentage, right? So just looking at the wide receivers themselves, Julio, this is what he does every year, 44%, 43%, 42%, 40%. Last year, Ridley jumped up from like 27% up to 38% just among the wide receivers. Julio was down at 29% in his limited work last year. That'll be the area to watch. You know, how many targets does Julio demand? Because he is a player that, you know, that's where he makes his bread and butter. He's never been the touchdown guy.

Yeah, and Calvin Ridley does not have a touchdown problem, like Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley, nine last year. He was double digits as a rookie. Am I remembering that correct? That is correct. That is not a problem for Calvin in the red zone with Matt Ryan. And I'm saying, I really do believe that both Julio and Calvin can easily finish his top 10 guys because you had a couple of years ago where Calvin really still coming into his own in the league and most of the new was on the team. Like it's now.

Calvin Ridley and Julio. That is it. It's the two options that they go to. It's going to be interesting in drafts. I have them back to back in rankings. Julio and Calvin? Correct. Calvin and Julio. Yeah. And the thing is, last year, I just want people to understand, though, there were 100 missing Julio Jones targets from his normal number. I mean, you were talking about going from the 170-157.

And then with the injuries and the limited work, it was down at 68. So there were 100 extra targets in this offense. Did Julio Jones play in week one in week two? Julio Jones, let me see here. He played in week one and he got injured in week two. Okay. Well, in week one, Calvert. He only had two, four targets. Okay. Well, then we can take the really small sample. But week one, Calvin Ridley, was the number two overall wide receiver.

with Julio Jones on the field. They can get it done. It is worth noting, though. There were seven games he played without Julio Jones last year. He had over three fantasy points per game on average more, over two targets more per game. Obviously, more yards. Dan Julio, you're saying? Then he did win Julio was on the field. So Calvin Ridley, and it makes sense, but he had much better games on average with Julio absent. So if Julio plays a full 17,

then I do think, you know, you're not finishing at wide receiver four. I would be taking, I'll tell you this right now. Based on today, I'll take the cheaper of the two options. In the six, in the games that Julio played and was healthy, 12 targets, 10, 9, 10, 7, 10. So I think that happens again. There's no reason for it not to. There's nothing on the field for Julio that's dropped away. It was the injury. And that could happen again, and maybe you take the safer, less injury prone pick. I understand that.

But this could be like the digs in Thielen year. This could be one of those situations where if one's around later because everybody wants to avoid the risk, I will buy the risk. Yeah, it could be around. I think they'll be very close when the draft time actually comes. And that's the just, I think he will succeed even with Julio as I keep saying it. But having that built in that if Julio misses time, Calvin Ridley is able to rise to the occasion because not all wide receivers can do that.

We all want our wide receiver, our fantasy guy, to be the only show in town, but not everyone can handle that type of pressure and still succeed, but he just gives better. He thrives. New head coach, new offensive coordinator as well. That's true. That'll be fun. That is true. Matt Ryan always does really, really well in first seasons. And honestly, who's going to have more receptions? Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley. Calvin, because he plays more games.

I imagine Julio will have more receptions. On a per game basis, Julio is the first read, and Julio will have more receptions on a per game basis. The last thing I'll say, that number four pick is going to matter here for the Calvin, for the Julio. You know, if they take a quarterback, that's upsetting for me. I hope they don't. If they draft Kyle Pitts, I mean, that's targets that's, you know, to go somewhere else. Hedges. What do you, your.

You seem the most concerned about Atlanta taking a quarterback there. Percentage odds that you believe Falcons go QB. 25%. That's pretty high, though. By the way, I realized Julio missed the games last year, but Ridley missed three the game of the year before, and Julio only missed one the year before. So I don't think he's played a full season yet either, Ridley. Michael Thomas at number seven. Oh, how the mighty felt. I mean, it just feels so meh. Yep.

He's not Michael Thomas. Oh, don't. Why I got to do that to Michael Thomas? Mickle Thomas? Oh. And I have him at 9, Jason at 6, Mike at 5. I still believe. Last year he had 55 targets. It was not a good year. He had 55 targets per game. But in seven games, look, you don't know how hurt was he when he was even back out there on the field. Super hurt. Yeah, the answer is extremely.

He was very much not healthy. He was trying to get to be a part of Drew Breeze's final season, and it didn't work out. I don't know if Michael Thomas can do enough next year on his own without the system and Breeze. And we don't know if it'll be Winston. We don't know if it'll be Tayson Hill. I think it's better for Michael Thomas if it's Winston.

But I just don't know what to believe about this. Coming off such a down year, disappointing year, even when he was on the field. I mean, he never scored. He never scored last year. Played seven games. Injured or not, never scored a touchdown. Yeah, that's wild. When I'm staring down the upside of other players with more predictable quarterback spots, it's very hard for me to buy. I feel like I will pay for Michael Thomas in ADP, and it will be because of two years ago exclusively.