AFC East Breakdown + Big Announcement, Dance & Song - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/13

You are anti-Turik Cohen ever being good again, right? Certainly. Yeah, I mean, he was already on his way to a bit stiff without the injury. So, you know, he was an elite special teams past catcher that I think is on the back half of his career. I think the team has tremendous trust in David Montgomery, and they brought in Damien Williams. Damien Williams is there. If Tariq Cohen can't go, essentially, it would be.

more of an uptick for David Montgomery's outlook. But Damien Williams is a solid pass catching running back, too. And we'll have to see what he's still, I mean, what he has. Yeah. Missing a whole year, opting out. And he's older, too. And then we do have a little hype train. Oh, yeah. I mean, maybe it's, we're already on this train when the UDK came out because he's in there as a sleeper. But Jets rookie running back, Michael Carter has impressed his head coach, Robert Saleh.

Got tremendous vision, he said. Tremendous speed and burst, the ability to make people miss. We know the situation in New York. We're going to be talking about them on today's show. They couldn't run the football. They have a very thin backfield. Yeah, but can we really trust Sala here? Because Michael Carter has good burst. Michael Carter does not have tremendous speed. But I actually completely agree with this. I think he's got amazing burst. It reminds me a lot of... But he does, I'm saying he doesn't have speed.

Yes, the long speed, the runaway from him. Right. Kareem Hunt, right? Kareem Hunt has burst, not speed. Yeah, I mean, it's one of those things where you're probably not ever going to get an 80-yard touchdown. But if you can rip off 20 yards here, 20 yards there, 20 yards, you know, then that's good enough for fantasy sometimes. Well, and he's competing with Kevin Coleman. And that's great for fantasy because you want your competition weak and old.

Poor Coleman, man. Oh, is he Tevin old man? Oh, man. Oh, no. He had some bad luck, bad, bad, bad injury luck, man. Well, that's what happens when you play for the 49ers. Yeah, that's true. The luck is baked into the contract. That was today's news and notes. Brought to you as always by Sleeper. Make sure you slip.

Slip on over. Slip on over. Slip your phone out of the pocket and download the sleeper app. What? What? Old-timey radio version. I don't know. See, yeah? Because I don't use the word slip anymore. Like, I'm going to slip into some nice jeans. Switch your league over to the fastest growing fantasy platform. Oh. Are you guys ready to get divisional? Yep. Let's get divisional.

All right, the bills. Let's start there. AFC East, we're breaking it down. 13 and 3 season for Buffalo last year. It was a coming out party in terms of elite production from Josh Allen. This was the number two overall team in points per game and yards. Number three in passing yards. This was a complete transition that took place. When you added Stefan Diggs and you decided you were.

willing to put the offense in the arm of Josh Allen. They really committed to being a past first team. 20th and rushing yards. Back in 2019, they had three total snaps with four or more wide receivers on the field. Fast forward to a year later, last year, number one, in terms of the most highest percentage of their plays with four more wide receivers on the field. Yeah. Led the NFL and three wide receiver sets. That's 90% of the time.

and had the most first downs via pass. There was no leaning on the running game, no dependency on it, and it still worked fine, right? You ended up winning the division, a banner year. And this kind of shocked everybody, right? I mean, this was... Yes. Even people who looked at this roster and believed in Josh Allen. I mean, it was more... Look what I can do. It was more than the hopes of...

Josh Allen Truthers, it was really the highest dream season that they could have had. Now we know they're legit, right? Now we're looking at this year saying they are the best, they are one of the best teams out there. Vegas has them as the second highest win total. So they're legitimate. The problem I have is that they've kind of peaked to me.

Well, that wasn't a problem. Were they old busted already? No, no. Let's break that down because I want to be, you've said that a couple times this off season about looking at Josh Allen's season as the best you're going to get. This was the quarterback one. So I guess mathematically speaking, you're right about that. Seven top three finishes, most among all quarterbacks. But none of that attitude would ever be put on the Kansas City Chiefs.

You would never look at the Kansas City Chiefs and say they hit their peak and now it's a downslope or they hit their peak and you're not going to get a multi-year plateau from Josh Allen. I think that's the question mark that we're really asking is, are you going to get this Josh Allen for the next five, six, seven, ten years? Yeah, right, because obviously to draft Patrick Mahomes costs a high round pick. It's a draft Josh Allen costs a high round pick. So you're saying.

They need to be great. And my point in saying that Josh Allen has already hit his peak, his pinnacle, like you're just, when you draft him at his draft cost.

you are he better repeat because that's the only way he's going to be worth it is if he actually repeats i'm confident my homes will repeat i'm not as confident in josh allen there's only been three quarterbacks ever to throw for four thousand yards rush for a hundred times in a season cam newton's rookie year russell wilson in 2015 and now josh allen but i mean which one are you

Not confident about it. You're not confident about him repeating with his arm or his legs? So I think both take a small step back. I think he's going to be a great asset for fantasy football. Top five quarterback. He's my number four quarterback. That's great. But he's being drafted in the fourth round. You could be fine. Oh, man. There are such. You could totally be fine. There are such amazing players in the fourth round, especially a wide receiver that, you know, I mean, I could get.

If I need to draft a quarterback in round 10, I'm fine. If I have to draft wide receivers in round 10 or something like that. So that's where it's tough. He better be everything or more than he was last season. You have taken Kyla Marie in the fifth round multiple times this off season. Correct. I'm simply making the point that, look, here's the case for a repeat or better. Stefan Diggs.

Number one target, right? We're not sitting here debating the merits of Emmanuel Sanders versus John Brown, just like we're not debating Ron Dale Moore in Christian Kirk in Arizona. When you have DeAndre Hopkins on the field and you have Stefan Diggs on the field, you've got a baseline. Number two, you didn't do anything to, you don't need to change the identity of the team, and you didn't do anything to your backfield to mean that you're going to change anything with the identity. He has the legs. He has a division that I think is exploitable.

And I don't know. I just think it's possible. And when you look at taking Kyler in the fifth with at least a season where you saw, yes, maybe injury, but you did see some weeks where you were burned. You just didn't get burned with Josh Allen last year. Yeah, I get that. I mean, the round difference, you know, I'm not drafting Kyler Murray, who I have ahead of Josh Allen in the fourth round, right? Which is his current ADP right now. It's 401 and 409.

that I'm looking at for Allen 401, Kyler 409. It's varied a little bit. Lamar's at 503. Mike, you'd take Lamar in the fifth and Josh Allen or Kyler Murray in the fourth. Yeah. Not that you'd necessarily want any of those. But if I were those ADPs and those quarterbacks. So Jason, I mean, Kyler's my number one guy, too, currently at the quarterback position. But when you're talking about Josh Allen repeating, I mean, you had, so Kyler had four rushing touchdowns.

his rookie season that skyrocketed all the way to 11. You just had Kyla Murray making comments about him running and saying that it was, he felt like it was leaned on too much in that it should be, I believe the quote was saying it should be a luxury, his ability to run instead of more of a focal point. But meanwhile, you have Josh Allen who has eight rushing touchdowns, nine rushing touchdowns, eight rushing touchdowns.

That's a guarantee. That's consistent. It would shock me if Josh Allen doesn't hit that at least seven rushing touchdowns. Sure. And that makes sense. But if you're, you got to look at both, you got to look at both touchdowns passing and rushing. You know that Kyler can do it rushing. Both guys can do it in both ways. But if you're telling me that the six and a half percent touchdown percentage that Josh Allen just through.

Odds of that repeating, we know, are very low. That's significantly above the NFL average, above good players average. You know, whereas Kyler Murray. Kyler was at league about league average at 4.7%. So I think he's got room to improve, whereas Josh Allen can absolutely repeat, but he needs to to be a value. That's how I see it. All right.

Okay, running game. Nothing new. Zach Moss, Devon Singletary back there. They brought in Matt Breda. They talked about maybe cutting Matt Breda. That's a non-issue. Ten opportunities a game for Zach Moss. If you're betting on one of these two guys, I would take my shot with Zach Moss. Yeah, that's what I. Personally, as much as I like Singletary, he is a role player. Stefan Diggs was incredible. Led the NFL in targets, receptions, receiving yards. Six plus receptions in all but one game. I don't see any way.

that that's changing if he stays healthy. But if you're looking at a second pass-catching option, is it Sanders, is it Gabe Davis in year two? Is it Cole Beasley? It's called Beasley. Beasley was a target hog last year. I mean, he saw 20% of the targets because he's the, his role on the team is more sure to me than what you, like, Sanders. It's more important than what John Brown was doing, too. Right.

Gabriel Davis is going to stretch the field. But you need to have the slot-wide receiver who's there who's going to see a whole bunch of targets. Now, it rarely turns into, you know, actual fantasy points for Beasley. It's basically hot or cold. But if you're betting on a second pass catcher, that's still where I would go. Gabe Davis had 12 in-zone targets last year. How was that possible? It's one more than Devante Adams.

And I know before Sanders was added, there was a lot of, you know, hope and speculation for Gabe Davis. They still will use him. He's a deep league flyer type of player to emerge. I mean, when you throw 37 touchdowns and your pass first, you need to have your fantasy eyeballs on a player like Gabe Davis in case you get that emergence. Would you rather go Gabe than Emmanuel Sanders? Yeah, because where I'm drafting them, I just want to see if I have something special.

Because if I have nothing special with either of these guys, I'm going to dump them for a waiver wire upside player anyways. And, you know, Sanders is on the very tail end of his career. Wasn't worth the pick in New Orleans last season. So, yeah, I take that. Yeah, you're right. He played well. He looked good. Emmanuel Sanders did. And he wasn't really worth it for fantasy. So I think he's going to be important to this offense. Good for Josh Allen. But I completely agree. If you're going to take a shot at someone in the late round,

Go with someone who has a high upside, and that's a breakout, which, I mean, Santers is great. He's not going to break out for fantasy. No, he just helps the wide receiver rotation. The Vegas win total that Jason talked about earlier. They have them at 11, 13 and 3 last year. 11 is what Vegas has them for, and they start against, I mean, pretty tough schedule, honestly, to start the year for Buffalo. Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington to start the year. So you look at three potentially really good defenses that you have to go up against.

And we might know, I don't know, you might be buying low for that Houston game in week four on Buffalo weapons. So just quickly back, because we just kind of glossed on the running backs, are you drafting Zach Moss? I'm not. So like currently the ADP I have here from Sleeper is the back of the eighth round, you know, other running backs. Well, we're going to talk about him, but so Zach Moss or Michael Carter.

I will all... I mean, I guess right now this moment, I'd say Michael Carter. I would as well. Zach Moss or AJ Dillon? I'll take AJ Dillon. Okay. Yeah, it sucks. I mean, you're talking about two mediocre... You're talking about a high-scoring team. I know. Two mediocre running backs behind a quarterback scores the rushing touchdown first team. And it just... It feels like drafting a mediocre back behind Cam Newton and Carolina, and you're just like...