Week 18 Starts & Nasty Boys + Big Money Incentives - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/4

Okay. Over those guys. So the Ty Chandler, it did not work out. The last time they played Detroit was eight opportunities, which was eight for 17 on the ground. He did have the touchdown so it wasn't, you know, just abysmal. But he couldn't get it going. He had a much better week last week against Green Bay, 10 for 40 on the ground. And then three for 24 through the air. So yeah, yeah, there could be better starts. The Jacksonville Jaguars at 9 and 7 take on the Tennessee Titans at 5 and 11. Draft King Sportsbook line is Jacksonville minus five. The over under is 39 and a half. Trevor Lawrence was limited in practice. I imagine that he will be playing in this game. Meanwhile, on the other side, Will Levis did not practice after leaving the game again, just freshly coming back from his injury. So it's probably Ryan Tannhill. What are your storylines for this game, Jay? Well, for the Jaguars, it's a win and in situation, lose and out. So this is a playoff game for them.

leads me to agree with you that Trevor de Lawrence will tough it out and will be the starter. You've got a run defense that coming into the year, Tennessee was really, really good. Middle of the season, they were easy to run on, and they've locked it back down the last six weeks. Their top 10 and fantasy points given up, but two running backs. I don't know how you could sit, Travis E.T.N. You're in the championship. There's a lot of players that you can't rely on. So he's in, but I've got kind of mild expectations for him in this matchup. I think with a hobbled.

Trevor Lawrence and a resurgent rush defense for the Titans. You know, I view him as a low-end RB1, high-end RB2 this week. And, I mean, it's probably a matter of the game script because they won 26 to 0 against Carolina last week. But Tank Biggsby got on the field. He got 10 opportunities. He was 10 for 32. Not great, but for what Tank has been doing for the rest of the season, he'll take it. Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley is okay. The matchup against Tennessee, you want to target them with wide receivers. So I'm absolutely fine playing him. I think, you know, and obviously Evan Ingraham, he's just been so reliable this season, even though the matchup's not great, kind of. Kyle, do you know how close Evan Engram is to the record? Because I know that he, in total, tight-in receptions in a season. So I'm wondering if they will, if he's close enough that they will attempt to make that happen. I don't think he's.

I think he is. No. Kyle's looking it up. All right. Look it up. He has 104 catches, man. Yeah. I guess maybe I'm, I'm mistaken with what the all-time record is. Yardage, no, but. No, no, no, I'm talking receptions. Kyle will find it. Yep. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee. We do have a report here, Jason. Okay, okay. From the, from the weather desk. Bo do, poodoo, boo. Burlington, Vermont. Sunday. January 7th, here's what is projected. Snow during the morning. That will transition to snow showers during the afternoon, high near 30 degrees. So last week it was. Chance of snow, 70%. Last week it was not snowing in Vermont, but there was snow on the ground. Was that just the mistake? We thought it was snow on the ground, but it needs to be snowing. Well, and I don't think it wasn't on game day, the snow? And we're talking, of course, about Derek Henry and the undefeated snow model.

Kind of felt defeated last week, if I'm honest. I feel like we took our first L on the snow model. Derek Henry has been pretty solid the whole year. He's had a couple down games. Two of them were in the last three weeks, both against Houston. They had his number. He didn't score five fantasy points in either game. But if you look at the last five games taking Houston out, he's been the running back eight, the running back three, the running back 10, the running back four. So. He's been good outside of games against Houston. Over the last six weeks, you've kind of seen the collapse of this Jaguar's defense that looked good. They're 24th, giving up over 20 fantasy points a game to running back. So you're going to play Derek Henry if he's still in it. I agree. Houston just, they figured out how to stop Derek Henry. Not every team has figured that out. An update here for you, Jay. The record is 116 receptions. That is by Zach Ertz.

So he's, I mean, he's within striking distance. No, he's not. You're, he needs, he needs 12 to tie it. He has three games of 10 or more receptions. He has, does he have a game of 12? Week 14, he had 11 catches. Okay. So if he gets, that's called striking distance for an all time record. If he gets his career high and catches. I don't know if it's career high, season high. All right. With season high. You can go through his game long. I don't know if he's ever hit 12. He had 11 last year. That would have been his best chance. No, he's never hit that. He's never hit that in his entire career. And that's just a tie. You want to take a record. You break a record. He's not getting it. Just saying bubble screens for Evan Angram. Let's make it happen. The New York Jets, they are six and ten somehow.

The New England Patriots are 4 and 12. The Draft King Sportsbook line is New England favored by two points. Confirmed. I went through his entire career game. 11's the high? Yes. All right. Okay. What were you saying? Sorry. I love. There is no chance that he can get anywhere near it because he has been one reception under. I'm glad you see the truth. The Patriots, the over under. That's what I was going to talk about. 30 and a half. Ooh, nice. Over 30. Trevor Simeon versus Bailey Zappy. Go Jets. That's just for the Cardinals draft pick. Oh. There's no other reason. What's on the line? Just because you want to or no, wait, go Patriots then. Yeah. Screw you, Jets. Yeah. You suck Jets. Go Pats. That was quite the turn. Yeah. Yeah. The playoff scenarios. Let's see. The New York Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs. The New England Patriots have been.

Also eliminated from the playoffs. My God, this game. All right. Breece Hall, he's got 74 receptions on the year. Yeah, I mean, they target him so much that he should be, even though it's a very difficult matchup against Patriots and they're going to be prepared for it. If he gets five or six receptions, that's at least a baseline where he should be fine and he has the long speed to break anything off. So you're starting Brees Hall if you got to this point. And if you got to this point, you got to this point on the back of Brees Hall. All right. Garrett Wilson, the most targets ever through two years in the NFL. Is that true? Yeah, he's had, he's sitting at 310 targets. Wow. They're not great targets most of the time because he has a, let's see, if 310 targets, he has 176 receptions.

Jefferson through 33 games had 292 targets and 196 receptions. Yeah. So empty targets a lot for our boy, Garrett Wilson. Hopefully that improves next year. But he's still, you're still playing Garrett Wilson this week. Yeah, he's a good stuff. Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson on that side of the ball. What are you doing on the other side of the ball? Zeke is in. I think, oh gosh, the Patriots are just, they're devils. Like, Zeke should be in. He's been top 24 and four of the last five weeks. I'm just saying he still had 16 opportunities this past week. So I'm saying if all of a sudden, Zeke starts the game gets a couple touches and then they go, okay, Kevin Harris, get in there, show us what you got. Last week, I won't be surprised. Kevin Harris, I feel like every time I looked up, every time I looked up, he was on the field. 21% of the snaps. Yeah, I mean, I just. It was only four opportunities. It was crazy. I saw every single snap he was on there, every fake target.

every catch. But it was still the Zeke show. He had the vast bulk of the carry. So you're starting Zeke. Is there anyone you could start in the receiving game? I'm going to say no. I'm not going to mess with DeMario Douglas. Douglas and Devante Parker Limited or Henry. Just here's, let's move on from this game. I agree. Zeke, Breeze, Garrett Wilson. Don't start anyone else. All right. The Atlanta Falcons are seven and nine. They are taking on the New Orleans Saints. who are 8 and 8, the Drafking Sportsbook Line, New Orleans, favored by three over under, is sitting at 42 points. Both teams fighting for a playoff spot, so everyone is incentivized to play. Arthur Smith may be playing for his job. Arthur Smith, if he gets a loss this week, he secures a contract extension. That's my understanding of the Atlanta Falcons organization. With a sweet 7 and 10? Yeah, yeah. You're going to be pretty proud of his work.

So Atlanta, a win plus a Tampa Bay loss moves them from the 11 seed to the four, and they will be hosting a playoff game with a sub-500 record. Yeah. This needs, whoever wins this game. Banished, right to jail. Like, if you win your division and you are sub-500, you don't get a home playoff game. If I'm commission. Yeah. This is what I'm doing. So would you give them a playoff game? They just don't get the four. Yeah, yeah. You don't get, you do not get the home game. Yeah. Let's see, who does the four plays the five? The Cardinals did that once. We did? Yeah. We got it. I thought we were 500. I don't think so. I think we were sub five. Hey, well, that's, that's in the past, man. There's nothing I can do about that. Nothing I can. I just remember Seattle had it happened. It's.

It's not fair. This game to these teams will start, and at least the first three quarters will feel like a playoff game. Whoever wins has a chance to make the playoffs. Now, should Tampa Bay win their matchup that is happening at the same time, which they should win, then Tampa will clinch it. Yeah, because they play the Carolina Panthers. Right. So there is a chance here if. You come around to halftime and they look at the score and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are, you know, up 28 to nothing. All of a sudden, the motivation for these teams. I think they'll still finish the game no matter what. If the Bucks win and the Saints win, the Saints still have a chance to make the playoff, if other things break right? Really? What needs to break right? I'll look into that. Don't just tell me they have a chance. Okay.

I think every other team competing would need to lose. Yeah, I think it's, I think it's extreme. It's possible. Every other matchup has to tie at zero zero. It's possible. Just like Evan Ingram breaking the record is not possible. Brooks. We looked it up. Have you heard he needs 12 receptions. He's only ever had 11 not not close. Kyle says New Orleans can win the NFC South and the four seed with a win over the Falcons and a buck loss. I'm going to be... Or they can sneak into the wildcard team with a win and losses from the Packers and Seahawks. I'm going to be sweating every Evan Ingraham catch that. Sweet. Just like counting them down. Ten more. Oh, no. Nine more. The great part is if he gets to 12, 13 is coming. I hope so. You don't just tie a record. Peterson will make it happen.

Taylor Heineke, four for 46 and touched on the ground last week. He was limited in practice on Wednesday. I would prefer not. I don't think you're in a good situation for him. The past six weeks, the Saints have been number one against fantasy quarterbacks. Bejohn. The last six weeks, they've been number one against quarterbacks, number two against wide receivers, number four against tight ends, and number six against running backs. Their defense has been on fire. This is a home game for the Saints. So if you're, when we're really breaking down this game, I think that this defense, this environment is going to come ready to roll. And the Atlanta Falcons offense is not good enough. Bejohn is in? Bejohn is still in. Yeah, he's, he's talented enough, gets utilization in the passing. Kind of similar to Brees Hall, where if he's, if he can end up with four or five receptions, he should have a good enough baseline and can break something off. In this week 18, when you are.

scrounging to find a running back to start. Tyler Algier. Running back 13, running back 14 in back to back weeks. No. On very limited opportunities. Yeah, I mean, he had a 31-yard breakaway run and a 75-yard reception this last week. Touchdown. It was awesome. He only had five rushing attempts. You can't rely on that for Tyler. So he's out. Drake. And if you did not see that Tyler Algear play. The most embarrassing 75-yard touchdown run any defense has ever allowed. It looked like you remember that play that Austin Eckler got a lot of flack for. He went around the outside and just slowed down and hit a top speed of 13. I mean, he was. Remember that time that guy got just bodied by the media? Some dude out there. In a hat and glasses? With a beard. He's a little overweight. I mean, little. Little.

But Tyler Algier, he gets this screen. And right when it happened, Andy and I were watching the game. And he goes, oh, that's going to be a big one because the defense was like super out of position. And so, and then it was like, oh, it's going to be a big. Oh, it's going to be a touchdown. It's going to be the biggest. But it was, it took a while for that play. It was like, where is the defense? You had forever to catch him. I think what happened genuinely on that play is that the defense all assumed. someone else got this. Like genuine, I'm not even making a joke. I think there were three to four players where it's like, oh, that guy's close. He's going to tackle him, but then a block happened or something. And then they were like, oh, I got to chase him down. And they bear, they should have caught him, but they still didn't. All right. So Algiers out. Drake London, 10 targets last week, five for 91 on seven targets versus New Orleans and week 12. My understanding on Marshaun Lattimore is, um,

Yeah, I mean, Drake, Drake London this week, you're going to have a lot of wide receivers. You can't play. So it's okay. It's okayish. I would not love it. I mean, you talk about 10 targets last week. He didn't get 10 fantasy points with that. The Saints are a tough team. I think you're going to be disappointed with Drake London. I would prefer to pivot. Derek Carr. You sending in the car? I'm asking you touchdowns. Three passing touchdowns. Three passing touchdowns. Two passing touchdowns. Yeah. He's been getting it done. He seems at least like, I mean, we read off that huge list of starting quarterbacks at the beginning of the show. I would much rather have Derek Carr. Let me give you some names. Okay. Trevor Lawrence against Tennessee or Derek Carr. Oh, man. Since, like, Angram's going to have 13 catches, so I'll go Trevor Lawrence. I think I'm actually Carr there. How about Gardner Minchu against Houston in a game that maybe hits the...

Over under. Or Derek Carr has been throwing tutties. I'll go car. Okay. And then I think the rest of the questionable guys, Jordan Love, Tua, Gino Smith, Kyler, you're going to take all those guys over Derek Carr, right? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Camara did not practice on Wednesday. Jamal Williams. I mean, it will be, you know. three yards in a cloud of dust type of a situation. But if they get to the goal line, Jamal would be the one to punch it in if Alvin Kamara is to miss. Kendra Miller, their rookie running back. I would love it if he could make it back. I would too. We just, we want to see. Can he do it? He's been, I mean, he's such a talented player. He's just been injured the whole year. He's been out with an ankle injury since week nine.

bringing him back for like a final game if he's limited in practice. I will say this. I don't think you could start him. I think Jamal Williams is the right play. Yes. But I will be super excited if Camara does not suit up, which I think there's a good chance of that. I'll be super excited to see Kendra Miller out there if he's if he can get back. I can agree with that. Olave was limited in practice. Shaheed remains the just if you need some nitro, you might get it. You're probably not going to. I think this week, kind of similar to last week, Darius Slayton, when you're looking at guys that are widely available that have that boom potential, that's what Rashid Shah is. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I would rather go Darius Slayton. Yeah, I can agree with that. Now, what about my dude here, Jay? Juan Johnson tied in for the New Orleans Saints who absolutely got it done as the tight in one last week. Last three weeks for Juwon.

Tide in 9 with 11 points, tied in 4 with 13, tied in 1 with 19 points. Are you chasing after Joanne? Who, which did not practice due to chest injury on Wednesday, but that's not going to take, keep him out of the game. I'm not chasing the upside of last week in a phenomenal match. But three straight weeks. But he's a fine play. You know, if you've been playing him, I would just keep doing it. I. I'm guessing most people in their championship. I mean, if you lost Hawkinson, that was a pivot last week. Juan or Kyle Pitts? I would go, Juan. Okay. So he's. Yeah, he's at least in play. All right. Tampa Bay, eight and eight. The Carolina Panthers, two and 14. The draft Kings sportsbook line, Tampa Bay is favored by four and a half. The over under is 37 and a half. The Carolina Panthers. Oh, this is a great note. This is a great note.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went in, eliminated with a loss. Yeah, and then the Carolina Panthers were eliminated the moment they took Bryce young. Oh, man. Kyle. Oh, yeah. Those are Kyle's words. I love it. I love it. He may not be wrong, but they're mean. They're mean words. Among first round rookie quarterbacks since 2012, he has the worst sack rate at 10.39%. is the lowest yards per attempt at 5.5. Okay. Stroud has the highest. So Bryce Young, he has looked terrible. Come on, Bryce. He's looked terrible. Come on, Bryce. We talk all the time about you need to see flashes. Will Levis has been bad. But you've seen flashes out of Will Levis. It's like, oh, me. We had one game from Bryce.

We had one game where he was like... Against the Packers! Yeah, no, I know the game. 64% completion rate, 312 yards, two touchdowns. That's a good game. It was his best game for sure. But he's still, even in that game, I remember coming in and you guys were like, oh, Bryce looked good. I was like, he still made a bunch of the same bad throws he's been making. That's fine. Just need to see some signs of life. But anyways, you're not playing Bryce Young. Baker Mayfield, top 12 in three of his past four games. He's the QB9 on the season. I believe he has a financial incentive to finish like top five in the NFC of passerating, something like that. Again, we have a great article on the website for Matthew Betts. You can check all that out. But where are you with Baker? Baker's been really, really good, but you don't want to play passing options against Carolina.

We, this is a lesson every year there's a team like the Carolina Panthers. Last year was a Houston Texans where you go, oh, they're a bad team. You want to play your guys against them, but you just want to play your running backs against them. Now, you're not going to bench Mike Evans because he's been so great. Godwin's been kind of on fire. Godwin's been good too, but I'm personally not wanting to start Chris Godwin against this matchup. I mean, on the course of the season, the Panthers are the second toughest matchup for quarterbacks. The second toughest match for wide receivers and the number one fewest fancy points given up when you adjust for schedule against tight ends while they suck against running backs. It's because the tape of Bay Buccaneers are going to be in the lead and they're going to be spending half of the game just kind of running the clockout. So you get a half. You have to hope that Rashad White doesn't score the first touchdown. If, you know, Mike Evans or Chris Godwin get that first touchdown. Because as soon as you get basically.

10 points in most games this year against the Panthers, you don't need much more. And so Baker, I'm not excited about. I would, you know, all those other options, the Derek Carr and all those guys we mentioned, I would start over Baker this. Okay. Rashad White, heck yeah. Yeah, it was unfortunately his first bust game since week six, but Rashad White has been getting it done for fantasy football. On the other side, are you playing? Chuba. How's his health? I can't speak to it at the very moment. You didn't talk to him this morning? No, I didn't. It's been a while. I haven't, I've lost connection with Chuba. Chuba has been a volume play. He played last week, still had 16 total opportunities, five targets in the game. I think you can play him, but the matchup against Tampa Bay is really, really difficult. I don't expect a lot of efficiency from him.

So he's like a flex option to me at best. What about me, Jason? Do I have one more? Do you have one more in you? It's finished strong. It's a great matchup for you, Adam Thielen. Play me. I'll play you. I'll play you this week. Oh, no. Did you croak? No, I'm still here. Oh, good. I fell asleep. Oh, okay. That's what that was. Good. I'm glad you didn't die yet. It's a great matchup is there. Yeah, I'm fine starting them. Would you start Bryce Young? No. Okay, well, you were on Mr. Talk Up Bryce Young. You had 300 yards. I said he has a, he had a game. It's a great matchup. Maybe if he can have. No. You're, I haven't seen Flash. Man, you're a harsh, harsh critic. That's true. But yeah, I legit think Adam Thielen is a fine play. The Buccaneers.

on the season 31st if you adjust for schedule against fantasy wide receivers. Adam Thieland's a good play. And Jonathan Mingo went to the IR. And what you've, yeah, that is an important note. What you've seen over the second half of the season is Adam Thielen, who started so, so strong, a lot of the targets started going to Jonathan Mingo. Now, they weren't as valuable. Mingo wasn't as efficient with those targets. And so the Panthers didn't succeed anymore. But with Mingo completely out of the way, I think they're going to draw up a lot of automatic plays for Thielen. Yeah, I mean, you want to talk about incentive. If you're eliminated, you're trying to make sure that your rookie quarterback can have some momentum heading into the off season. They're not going to lay down. They're really going to try and beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. So, yeah, Adam Thielen is a good play. Let's go on to the starts. Starts of the week. All right, Jay, who's your quarterback?

My quarterback start of the week this week is Justin Fields. Speaking of playing for the future, this is your final audition before the draft. Justin Fields is playing for his job, either somewhere else or I think he prefers with the Bears. Of course. And we talked about the dynasty outlook of him is so wide because he could either be traded and become someone that you have no confidence in going forward, maybe as a backup quarterback for another team. or a potential starter for a bad team. Or they draft Marvin Harrison Jr. with their top pick, and now he's got DJ Moore and Harrison Jr. But this week, he gets to play spoiler against the hated division rivals Green Bay Packers. Here's a quote from Fields on playing Green Bay this week. Quote, their fans are going to be loud because there's not much to do in Green Bay except watch football. Oh, baby. Let's go to the Resident of Packer fan. You have visited Green Bay very often? Yeah.

Okay. Is he correct? They like to drink there too. Yeah, I was going to say, if you said yes, I was going to say, that is not true. They love drink it too. That sounds like a city I want to go to. I mean, it's a good time. Just beers and football? Just beers and football, baby. That's why they are great fans. But since week four. It's a high tea city up there. Since week four, Justin Fields, he's, he is averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game. He's been a top. four quarterback and three of his last four starts. And since week 11, Green Bay is 25th and scheduled adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks. I think he has a great game. Do people, Jeremy, do people in Green Bay know that moving is an option? Oh, come on. I'm sure they do, but it's a good time there. I've never been. You can't, I ask myself all the time. Do people in Phoenix, Arizona know that moving is an option? Yeah. Because I know, because it's not. That's a great point.

You're stuck, man. If I could winter here and summer there, that would be. Okay, so it's a delightful place? It is. Yeah. Someday. Someday. My quarterback started the week. I'm going back to my streamer. It's Tyrod Taylor. He gets to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. Somehow remains a great matchup for our fantasy quarterbacks and wide receivers. It was the QB 11 last week. You can have a rushing floor with them. Philly dead last and schedule adjusted points to quarterbacks. They're on pace to see the six most passing attempts of all time. Tyrod is in play. My running back start of the week is Devin Singletary. I think he is a phenomenal play. He has an incentive if he gets like 146 rushing guards or something. It's wild. But maybe he gets there. But the Texans clearly trust Devin Singletary a lot more than they trust Damian Pierce. And this is a must-win playoff type of game for the Texans. Since week 10, he's the running back nine.

averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game on a whopping 19 and a half opportunities per game in that span. And the Colts have been a run funnel defense all year. They are 30th and scheduled adjusted fantasy points to running back. So the rushing incentive, Jay, that one we had looked up is pretty far-fetched because it's like 140 rushing yards. But scrimmage yards, he currently has 1,026. He needs 1,100 total, and he will get an extra 125K. That is reasonable. All right. Now, you're saying that's far-fetched for him to get it, but based on my scientific method of game logs and has he done it before? Right. You're like, oh, that's not far-fetched. He's close. Uh-huh. Dude's already done it. 150 rushing yards against Cincinnati in week 10. Okay, so you're taking him to hit the... Yeah, science. He'll get there. Okay. My running back start of the week, it was all ready to be Elijah Mitchell because I had gotten into the show doc first.